Morning Briefing

13 May 24. 0850 IST or 0320 GMT or 2320 EST

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index can rise to 106 while above 105 and Euro can fall to 1.07 while below resistance at 1.08. USDJPY and EURJPY need to hold below immediate resistances at 156 and 168 to decline from here. Else, the pairs could soon rise towards 157/158 and 169/170 respectively. USDCNY has risen with a gap up and can test 7.24 in the coming sessions. Aussie and Pound could range within 0.6550-0.6650 and 1.2450-1.26 respectively. EURINR could dip to 89.50 while below resistance at 90. USDINR is likely to hold within the range of 83.57/55-83.40/30 for this week.

The US Treasury yields have risen back again. They have to get a strong follow-through rise. Else a dip to test their support can still happen before the yields reverse higher strongly. The US inflation data release on Wednesday will be important to watch. The German yields have moved further up. The bounce from the supports last week is sustaining well. That keeps the short-term outlook bullish to see more rise in the coming days. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI are struggling to get a strong rise. They remain vulnerable to fall from here and test their crucial supports first. Thereafter the yields can rise back again.

Dow Jones has risen above the resistance at 39500 and can now rise further towards 40000. DAX continues to move up. We must be careful as there is crucial resistance at the current level. A break above it, if seen, can open doors towards its next key resistance. Nifty has recovered a bit and might rise towards 22200-22500 while it sustains above 21800. Nikkei to trade sideways within 39000-37000 for a while with a bearish view. Shanghai has fallen but the downside seems limited to 3100.

Crude prices have dipped. Brent and WTI are overall bearish while below $85 and $80-81 respectively. Gold and Silver can fall while below the resistance at 2385-2400 and 29 respectively. Copper might trade sideways between 4.80-4.50. Natural Gas has declined but could find support near 2.1.

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14 May 24. 0847 IST or 0317 GMT or 2317 EST

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index is holding well above 105 and can rise to 106 and Euro can fall to 1.07 while below resistance at 1.08. USDJPY and EURJPY have risen past 156 and 168 respectively and now if sustained, can extend towards 157/158 and 169/170 respectively in the coming sessions. USDCNY is headed towards 7.24. Aussie and Pound continue to remain ranged within 0.6550-0.6650 and 1.2450-1.26 respectively. EURINR has risen slightly above the resistance of 90 and now it has to be seen whether it sustains and rises further towards 91 or gets dragged towards 89.50 in the coming sessions. USDINR is likely to hold within the range of 83.57/55-83.40/30 for this week.

The US Treasury yields look stable but can rise while above 4.4% (10Yr) and 4.6% (30yr) respectively if they get a strong follow-through rise. Else an initial dip to the mentioned supports can happen before the yields reverse higher strongly. The German yields have dipped slightly but we retain our bullish view while above 2.40% (10yr) and 2.50% (30yr) respectively. The 10Yr GoI is ranged within 7.16-7.10% while the 5Yr GOI may fall to 7.02/7.00% before rising towards 7.30% in the medium term.

Dow Jones and DAX have dipped slightly. Dow Jones has near-term support while above which the view remains intact for a rise towards its crucial resistance. Dax can dip further if it remains below 18850-18900. Nifty has recovered as the support at 21821-21800 held well and might extend the recovery further in the near term. Nikkei to trade sideways within 39000-37000 for a while with a bearish view. Shanghai has scope to test its key resistance at 3200 before a fallback can be seen.

Crude prices have resistance overhead while below which the outlook is bearish for the near term. Gold and Silver can fall while below the resistance at 2385-2400 and 29 respectively. Copper bounced back sharply towards its key resistance at 4.80. Need to see if it breaks higher or not. Natural Gas looks bullish towards 2.50.

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15 May 24. 0901 IST or 0331 GMT or 2331 EST

Good Morning!

The higher than anticipated US PPI release at 0.52 led to Dollar Index slipping below 105 and can now further test 104.5 as well. While Euro has risen above 1.08 but a decisive break past 1.085 will be needed to make the outlook bullish further. USDJPY and EURJPY are rising towards 157/158 and 170 respectively as expected. USDCNY tested 7.2379 before coming down and further if the fall continues, can test 7.22 on the downside. Aussie and Pound are trading near the upper end of their respective range of 0.6550-0.6650 and 1.2450-1.26. EURINR has sustained well above 90 and now it can rise further towards 90.50-91 in the coming sessions. USDINR is likely to trade within 83.40-83.55 range in the near term, before eventually rising higher towards 83.60. US CPI and EU Flash GDP data release are important to watch today.

The US Treasury yields are coming down. There is room to fall more from here to test their supports. But thereafter we can expect the yields to rise back again. The US inflation data release today is important to watch. The German yields continue to move up. The bullish view is intact, and the yields can rise further. The 10Yr and 5Yr can fall from here and test their supports. Thereafter they can rise back again.

Dow Jones has near-term support while above which the view remains intact for a rise towards its crucial resistance. Dax has dipped further as expected and might extend the fall some more before a bounce back can happen. Nifty is bullish while above 21821-21700. Nikkei is stuck in a narrow range of 38000-39000. Shanghai has scope to test its key resistance at 3200 before a fallback can be seen.

Crude prices have resistance overhead while below which the outlook will remain bearish for the near term. Gold and Silver can still fall it they stays below the resistance at 2375-2400 and 29 respectively. A decisive break above these, if seen, can negate our view and would turn to be highly bullish. It is a wait and watch now. Copper has risen sharply above 4.80 and can now head towards its next crucial resistance which might halt the current rally. Natural Gas remains bullish for the near term. Key economic data to watch today is US CPI.

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16 May 24. 0847 IST or 0317 GMT or 2317 EST

Good Morning!

The US Treasury yields have tumbled after the inflation data release yesterday. The US Headline CPI came in at 3.36% (YoY) for April, down from 3.48% in March. The Core CPI fell to 3.62% (YoY) from 3.8% over the same period. If the yields sustain lower, they can fall more from here. That will negate the bounce back move that we have been expecting. The German yields have also declined sharply. But support is coming up for them. These supports have to hold to keep the chances alive for a rise back and avoid a deeper fall. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI are coming down as expected and are keeping intact our near-term bearish view.

A sharp fall in the Dollar Index post US CPI and Retail sales data release yesterday has taken most currencies higher against the Dollar while USDJPY and EURJPY have declined sharply. The dollar Index could test 104-103 while Euro faces the first hurdle at 1.09 above which the view is bullish to 1.10. USDJPY and EURJPY can hold above 153 and 165 respectively while the Yuan could strengthen to 7.20. Aussie needs to hold below 0.6750 while Pound could test resistance at 1.28 while above 1.26. EURINR could dip from 91 else could turn bullish towards 92. USDINR is likely to hold within the range of 83.40-83.55 for the near term. Watch out for EU CPI, US Housing starts, Jobless claims and US Industrial production data releases scheduled today.

Decent rise was seen in Dow Jones, DAX, and Nikkei after softer US CPI data. Nifty has dipped slightly yesterday but can bounce back taking cues from the global markets. Nikkei might break above the upper end of the 38000-39000 range and target further upside. Shanghai has dipped below 3150 but the downside might be limited to 3100.

Crude prices have recovered whereas Metals have risen sharply after the release of softer US CPI data. Crude prices could face resistance overhead, which if holds, can keep the bearish view intact. Metals and Natural Gas looks bullish for the near term.

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17 May 24. 0849 IST or 0319 GMT or 2319 EST

Good Morning!

The sell-off in Dollar seen after the US CPI release has recovered partially. The US Initial Jobless claims came in lower at 222K (Prev 232K) while Industrial Production came out at a stable rate. The Dollar Index is headed towards 105 while the Euro can fall to 1.08 while respective support and resistance holds well at 104 and 1.09 respectively. USDJPY and EURJPY have bounced back well and could rise towards 157/158 and 170 respectively. USDCNY has also managed to bounce back sharply and could now be headed towards 7.24 again. A broad range of 7.20-7.24 seems to be holding well. Aussie has dipped on Dollar strength and could be headed towards 0.6650-0.66. The pound fell from 1.27 itself and is headed towards 1.26. USDINR could continue trade within 83.40-83.55. EURINR is holding below 91 and could test 90.50-90 in the near term.

The US Treasury yields have risen back well. It is important now for it to sustain this bounce and get a strong follow-through rise from here to move higher. Else a further fall cannot be ruled out. The German yields have bounced back well from near their key supports. While the supports hold, the outlook is bullish and more rise can be seen from here. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI bounced back sharply yesterday. The fall could be coming to an end as they are close to their support. The yields are likely to see a strong rise going forward.

Dow Jones has come down a bit after testing its crucial resistance. Failure to rise past it can trigger a corrective fall soon. DAX has fallen back but the overall outlook will remain bullish while above 18500. Nifty has bounced sharply towards 22500 and has scope to rise further towards 22800. Nikkei is stuck within its 38000-39000 range but can potentially break on the upside soon. Shanghai remains lower but the support at 3100 is expected to hold and lead to a rise towards its key resistance.

Crude prices have resistance overhead, which if holds, can keep the bearish view intact. Gold and Silver lack follow-through rise but have near-term supports which may hold and keep the overall bullishness intact. Copper can come down to test its immediate support at 4.8-4.7 or 4.65 before a bounce back can happen. Natural Gas looks bullish towards 3.00 in the near term.

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21 May 24. 0844 IST or 0314 GMT or 2314 EST

Good Morning!

Dollar Index holds above 104 and could move up slowly to 105 while Euro may head towards 1.0820 before reversing towards 1.09. EURJPY and USDJPY continue to move up targeting 170 and 157/158 respectively. USDCNY is headed to 7.24, which if breaks would open door for a rise to 7.25. Aussie may rise if support at 0.6650 holds. Pound may rise to 1.28 if it sustains above 1.27. Sell off seen in USDINR on Friday taking it below 83.40. There is scope for a test of 83.30/25 while below 83.40. EURINR is bearish while below 91.

The bounce seen towards the end of last week on the US Treasury yields is sustaining well. Further rise happened yesterday. A break above the immediate resistance can take the Treasury yields further higher and will reduce the chances of the fall that we were expecting. The German yields continue to rise in line with our expectation. The bullish outlook is intact. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have moved up further. A break above the immediate resistance will indicate that a bottom is already in place and will take them higher going forward.

Dow Jones struggles to get a follow-through rise above its key resistance. Failure to rise past it can lead to a further fall from here. DAX is stuck in a narrow range but bias is positive to see a break on the upside soon. Nifty remains bullish for the near term. Nikkei has risen above its upper end of the range as expected and looks bullish to target further upside. Shanghai has risen back well and keeps intact the chances of seeing a test of its key resistance. After that, a profit taking can be seen.

Crude prices have dipped slightly after facing rejections near the resistance zone and might remain overall bearish. Metals have fallen back from yesterday's high but have near-term supports coming up which may hold and produce a bounce back. Natural Gas can test its key resistance soon before a corrective fall occurs.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.

22 May 24. 0840 IST or 0310 GMT or 2310 EST

Good Morning!

Dollar Index holds above 104 and could move up slowly to 105 while Euro may test 1.0850-1.0820 before reversing towards 1.09. EURJPY and USDJPY continue to move up targeting 170 and 157/158 respectively while volatility remains low. USDCNY is unable to sustain its rise past 7.24 and has dipped slightly. Aussie has held the support of 0.6650 quite well but watch price action closely around current levels as to whether it bounces towards 0.6750 or not. Pound is gradually rising towards crucial resistance near 1.28. USDINR tested 83.25 as expected and could further extend its fall towards 83.20/15 before bouncing back towards 83.50/60 on the upside. EURINR is bearish while below 91.

The US Treasury yields have dipped again. Unless they break above their immediate resistances, a further rise is not possible. While the resistances hold, the Treasury yields are likely to fall more from here. The German yields have dipped. But the broader bullish view remains intact. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have turned down from there resistances. They can dip to test their supports. A sideways consolidation is possible before a rally begins.

Dow Jones has recovered a bit but needs to rise past its key resistance. Else it will be vulnerable to a fall in the near term. DAX remains stuck in a narrow range but bias is positive to see a break on the upside soon. Nifty continues to rally and has scope to rise towards its key resistance at 22800. Nikkei has fallen, failing to sustain the break above 39000 but has supports coming up at 38500-38000 which are expected to hold and produce a bounce back. Shanghai has scope to test its key resistance. After that, a profit taking can be seen.

Crude prices have fallen further as the mentioned resistances are holding well. Can fall some more in the near term. Metals have managed to sustain above their support as expected and while above that, they can continue their rally. Natural Gas has dipped but could find support at 2.50.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.

23 May 24. 0854 IST or 0324 GMT or 2324 EST

Good Morning!

Dollar Index needs to break past 105 to become bullish towards 106-106.50, while Euro is testing our target of 1.0820/1.08, from where a reversal towards 1.09 is likely. EURJPY and USDJPY continue to move up targeting 170 and 157/158 respectively while volatility remains low. USDCNY has risen sharply past 7.24 and can now head towards 7.25/26 on the upside. Aussie failed to hold the support at 0.6650 and has declined a bit. If the fall continues, might get extended towards 0.6550 in the coming sessions. Pound is likely to test 1.28 on the upside, while it sustains above 1.27. USDINR is closed today. EURINR can soon test our mentioned target of 90 on the downside.

The US Treasury yields remain stable. While they trade below their resistances a further fall is possible in the coming days. The resistances have to be broken to negate this fall and move up going forward. The German yields have bounced back again. The bullish view is intact. The yields can rise further from here. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have declined sharply after the RBI’s dividend announcement to the government yesterday. But key supports are coming up which are likely to hold. A sideways consolidation is possible for some time before the yields rise again.

Dow Jones and DAX have fallen on hawkish FOMC minutes. Minutes stated that FOMC members discussed holding interest rates steady for longer if inflation doesn't fall and expressed their willingness to tighten policy further if needed. Nifty continues to rally and has scope to rise towards its key resistance at 22800. Nikkei has bounced back as the mentioned support has held well and keeps our bullish view intact. Shanghai has fallen back but the downside could be limited to 3100.

Most of the commodities have fallen on Hawkish FOMC Minutes of the meeting except for Natural Gas which has seen a strong recovery. Crude remains bearish for the near term. Metals have supports coming up from where a bounce back is expected to be seen. Natural Gas has scope to test its key resistance before a corrective fall can happen.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.

24 May 24. 0854 IST or 0324 GMT or 2324 EST

Good Morning!

The dollar Index broke above 105 and looks slightly bullish. The Fed minutes released on Wednesday highlighted concerns about inflation and uncertainty about when to ease rates. Members indicated a lack of confidence in moving forward with interest rate reductions, suggesting a more cautious approach to monetary policy. Euro tests support at 1.08 which needs to hold and take it back to 1.09 else could be vulnerable to test 1.0750-1.07. EURJPY and USDJPY continue to move up targeting 170 and 158 respectively. USDCNY is headed towards 7.25/26. Aussie failed to hold the support at 0.66 and can test 0.6550. The pound has fallen sharply and could test 1.2650-1.26 soon. USDINR may rise to 83.30/40/50 while above 83.15/20. EURINR can test 89.50 before bouncing back to 90+ levels.

The US Treasury yields have risen. But resistances are ahead which have to be broken to move further higher. Else a fall from here cannot be avoided. The German yields have come up to our expected levels. We have to wait and watch if a correction is happening from here or not. But, a strong follow-through rise from here can take them further higher in the coming days and will continue to keep the bullish view intact. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have key supports near current levels. While that holds, a sideways consolidation is possible for some time before the yields rise again.

Dow Jones has fallen sharply. A break below 39000, if seen can extend the fall to 38500. Dax is to trade between 18600 and 18900 for a while with a scope to see a break on the upside. Nifty has surged towards 23000. The level of 23000-23150 is a crucial resistance zone. If that holds, a corrective fall could be seen. Nikkei has fallen back but may find support at 38000. Shanghai has come down near the support at 3100. Need to see if that holds or if it breaks lower to 3050.

Crude remains bearish for the near term. Gold has broken below its support and looks vulnerable to a further fall from here. Silver might break below its support and target further downside. Copper has dipped below 4.8 but has support at 4.7. Need to see if that holds and produces a bounce back or not. Natural Gas has risen towards its key resistance which if holds, can lead to a corrective fall.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.

27 May 24. 0848 IST or 0318 GMT or 2318 EST

Good Morning!

The dollar Index could not stay above 105 and can now test 104.50 on the downside before attempting to rise back. Euro tests support at 1.08 and has bounced well from there. EURJPY and USDJPY looks bullish towards 172 and 158-159 respectively but could face an interim dip in the near term before rising. USDCNY is headed towards 7.25/26. Aussie and Pound have recovered well from their respective lows of 0.6597 and 1.2676 and can rise to 0.67 and 1.28 respectively in the longer run. EURINR can now rise back towards 90-91 in the coming sessions. USDINR can bounce from crucial support at 83.

The US Treasury yields remain stable. They have to breach their immediate resistances to move further higher and avoid falling back. The US markets are closed today. The German yields have also dipped slightly. Key resistances are near current levels which have to be broken to avoid a corrective fall and get an extended rise. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have bounced slightly. The support is holding well. A sideways consolidation above this support is possible before a fresh rise happens.

Dow Jones and DAX look vulnerable to fall towards their immediate support before a bounce back can happen. Although Nifty has room to rise towards 23200, but we need to be cautious as 23000-23200 are decent resistance zone and we might see a profit taking. Nikkei has recovered a bit and may look to rise in the near term while above the support at 38000. Shanghai has fallen below 3100 and can fall further towards 3050 and then a bounce can be seen.

Most of the commodities have recovered except Natural Gas. Crude prices have bounced back a bit but the broader outlook will remain bearish for a fall while below resistance at $85 (Brent) and $80 (WTI) respectively. Gold and Silver fall have stalled but they need to surpass the resistance overhead to bring back the bullishness and to avoid the danger of falling again. Copper has managed to sustain above support at 4.70. While above 4.70, a bounce back can happen soon. Natural Gas has fallen as expected and may come down to test its immediate support. Thereafter we need to see if it bounces back or breaks lower.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.

28 May 24. 0847 IST or 0317 GMT or 2317 EST

Good Morning!

The dollar Index needs to bounce back from current levels to test 105+ on the upside, else it can fall towards 104, while Euro is headed towards 1.09. EURJPY looks bullish towards 172 while USDJPY looks muted below 158/157. USDCNY is headed towards 7.25/26. Aussie and Pound can soon rise to 0.67 and 1.28 respectively before topping out. EURINR can now rise back towards 90-91 in the coming sessions. USDINR above 83, has potential to rise back towards 83.35/40 in the near term.

The US Treasury yields have to break their immediate resistance to move higher and avoid a fall. It is a wait and watch situation. The resistances on the German yields are holding well. A corrective fall looks likely in the near-term within the overall uptrend. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI are holding well above their supports. We can expect a consolidation before they move up again.

Dow Jones was closed yesterday. DAX and Shanghai have bounced back contrary to our view and might extend the bounce further. Nifty has key resistance at 23200 which if holds, can lead to a corrective fall. Nikkei lacks a follow through rise but bias is positive to see a rally towards 40000 while above 38000.

Crude prices have extended the bounce but needs to overcome the resistance at $85 (Brent) and $80 (WTI) respectively to bring back the bullishness. Else can remain vulnerable to a fall. Gold and Silver have risen above their resistance and while this break sustains, a further rise can be seen in the near term. Copper is holding well above support at 4.70. While above 4.70, a rise towards 5.00 looks possible. Natural Gas can come down to test its immediate support. Thereafter we need to see if it bounces back or breaks lower.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.

29 May 24. 0854 IST or 0324 GMT or 2324 EST

Good Morning!

The dollar Index bounced back from 104.34 after the US Consumer confidence data was released higher than expected. A rise towards 105 or higher looks possible in the near term. The Euro has fallen from levels below 1.09 and could sustain within 1.08-1.09 for a while. EURJPY looks bullish towards 171/172 while USDJPY has risen above 157 and seems to be slowly moving up. USDCNY is bullish towards 7.25/26. Aussie and Pound have dipped from 0.6680 and 1.28 respectively and can come off in the near term towards 0.66 and 1.27/26. EURINR has dipped and can test 90 before moving back to 91. USDINR above 83, has the potential to rise back towards 83.35/40 in the near term.

The US Treasury yields have risen well breaking above their resistances. While this break sustains, the yields can rise further in the coming days. The US GDP tomorrow and the US PCE on Friday are important data releases to watch this week. The German yields have also risen back again. The bullish view is intact, and an extended rise can be seen in the coming days. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have risen back. They can consolidate in a range for some time and then rise eventually going forward.

Dow Jones has scope to test its key support before a bounce back can be seen. DAX has come down again and looks mixed for the near term. Nifty has dipped further and a break below 22800, if seen, would be vulnerable to a further fall in the near term. Shanghai and Nikkei lacks a follow through rise but bias is positive to see a rally towards 3150-3200 and 40000 while above 3100 and 38000 respectively.

Brent can test its key resistance at $85-86 while WTI has already broken above the resistance at $80 and might rise further from here. Gold, Silver and Copper looks bullish for the near term. Natural Gas has bounced back and may extend the bounce further while above 2.73.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.

30 May 24. 0849 IST or 0319 GMT or 2319 EST

Good Morning!

The dollar Index has risen above 105 and Euro has slipped slightly below 1.08. Now if the rise in Index gets further extended to 106-106.50, then Euro would be vulnerable to test 1.0750-1.07 or lower on the downside. While EURJPY has faced rejection from the high of 170.80, USDJPY has sustained well above 157 and seems to be slowly moving up but watch for a dip from 157.50. USDCNY is bullish towards 7.25/26. Aussie and Pound have been declining as expected and, a test of 0.65/64 and 1.26 looks likely in the near term. EURINR, if breaks below 90 can extend to 89.50 before moving back to 91. USDINR is headed towards 83.40/50 from where a dip is possible. US GDP data release scheduled today would be important to watch.
The US Treasury yields have risen sharply. While this sustains, a further rise is possible in the coming days. Broadly the outlook is bullish. The US GDP data today and the US PCE data tomorrow are important to watch. The German yields have surged and are looking strong. Outlook is bullish and there is room to rise more.

The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI are moving up within the expected range. The bias is positive to see a bullish breakout of this range if not immediately but eventually.
Most of the equities have fallen sharply. Dow Jones, DAX and Nifty looks likely to extend the fall further. Nikkei has fallen sharply below 38000 but could find support at 37500-37000. Shanghai looks mixed and might trade within 3050-3200 for a while.

Brent and WTI might trade sideways while below $85/86 and $80/81 for some time. Gold to trade within 2300-2400 with a possibility of moving up towards the upper end of the range. Silver lacks a follow through above 32 but while above the support at 31.00, there are chances of seeing a rally in the near term. Copper has fallen back sharply below 4.8 and a further break below 4.7, if seen, would increase the downside risk. Natural Gas too has fallen back below 2.7 and might come down further from here.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.

31 May 24. 0852 IST or 0322 GMT or 2322 EST

Good Morning!

After the second estimate for US QoQ GDP came lower than previous one to 1.24%, the dollar Index had declined a bit. Now, while Index holds above 104.50, view remains bullish towards 106-106.50. Euro on the other hand can move within the range of 1.09-1.08. While EURJPY looks bearish towards 168-167, USDJPY can test 156 before attempting to rise back in the medium term. USDCNY came down sharply to the low of 7.2323 before recovering a bit. Above 7.24, it has a potential to test 7.25/26 in the medium term. Aussie needs to rise past 0.6650 to head towards 0.67 on the upside and Pound looks likely to rise towards 1.28 in the near term. EURINR, if breaks below 90 can extend to 89.50 before moving back to 91. USDINR continued to remain volatile within 83.50/60-83.30/20 region but could see a dip to 83.25/20 today.

The US Treasury yields have fallen back failing to sustain the break. Failure to rise back from here can drag them down in the coming days. The US PCE data release today is important to watch. The German yields have dipped. But while they sustain above their resistance-turned-support levels, the outlook is bullish to see further rise in the coming days. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI remain within their sideways range. They can consolidate in this range for some more time and then see a bullish breakout eventually.

Dow Jones has support just below the current level. Need to see if that holds and produces a bounce back or if it extends the fall further. DAX has scope to fall towards its support before a bounce back can be seen. Nifty remains bearish for the near term. Nikkei is to trade within 37000-39000 for a while. Shanghai might test the lower end of the 3200-3050 range before a bounce can be seen.

Crude prices have fallen sharply on lower than expected US GDP Q/Q data and might extend the fall towards the lower end of their sideways range. Gold is gradually moving up and has scope to rise towards 2380-2400. Silver, Copper and Natural gas have declined further and may come down towards 30, 4.5-4.4 and 2.5-2.4 before a bounce back can be seen.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.

03 Jun 24. 0853 IST or 0323 GMT or 2323 EST

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index continues to remain volatile within its range of 104.50-105.50. Euro tested 1.082 on Friday before coming down. Unless a strong break past 1.09 is seen, it can move within the range of 1.08-1.09. EURJPY and USDJPY need to sustain above 170 and 157 respectively to test 172 and 159-160 on the upside. USDCNY above 7.24, has the potential to test 7.25/26 in the medium term. Aussie needs to sustain 0.6650 to head towards 0.67 on the upside and Pound looks likely to rise towards resistance at 1.28 in the near term. EURINR can hold the range of 89.50/90-91 for a while. USDINR can remain volatile within 83.00-83.60 this week. Watch for Lok Sabha Election results tomorrow.

The US Treasury yields have come down further on Friday after the US PCE data release. The US PCE fell to 2.65% (YoY) in May from 2.7% (YoY) in April. The yields can fall further in the coming days. The German yields remain stable. The view is bullish, and the yields can rise more from here. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI are coming down within their range. The sideways range is likely to remain intact for some more time before a bullish breakout happens.

Dow Jones and Nikkei have seen a strong rise but both need to rise past 39000 for increased bullishness towards 40000. DAX and Shanghai have scope to test their key near-term supports before a bounce back can be seen. Nifty can open with a wide gap-up following the exit poll results and a strong rise in Dow Jones.

Crude prices have recovered a bit after OPEC+ decided to continue the oil output cuts of 3.66 million bpd until the end of 2025 which were due to expire at the end of 2024 and also to extend the cuts of 2.2 million bpd by another three months till Sep-2024 which were earlier said to expire by the end of Jun-24. Gold is likely to trade within 2400-2300 for some time. Silver can trade within 30-33 for a while if it sustains above 30. Copper has bounced back a bit but it has overcome the hurdle at 4.75 to bring back the bullishness. Natural gas has bounced back from 2.50 and might extend the bounce towards 2.90.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.

04 Jun 24. 0854 IST or 0324 GMT or 2324 EST

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index post weaker US ISM Manufacturing data release fell sharply to test 104 and now it needs to be seen whether the fall gets extended to 103 or not. Euro on the other hand shot up even past our expected resistance near 1.09 and now if sustained, can head towards 1.10 in the coming sessions. EURJPY needs to sustain above 170 to test 172 and USDJPY above 156 can trade within the range of 156-158 for a while. USDCNY above 7.24, has the potential to test 7.25/26 in the medium term. Aussie and Pound tested 0.67 and 1.28 respectively as expected and if sustained, can further test 0.6730/50 and 1.2850 respectively before topping out. EURINR can hold the range of 89.50/90-91 for a while. USDINR had slipped yesterday below 83 but is currently back within our expected range of 83.00-83.60. The pair can remain volatile within this week with possible Rupee strength today. Watch for Lok Sabha Election results today.

The US Treasury yields are coming down in line with our expectation. The outlook is weak, and more fall is on the cards. The German yields have also declined sharply. However, support is there to limit the downside and keep the broader uptrend intact. The 10Yr and 5Yr have come down sharply. They might see an extended fall slightly beyond our expected levels and then see a bounce back again.

Dow Jones can rise towards 39000 while above 38000-37800. DAX outlook is bullish while above 18400-18200. Nifty can rise towards 23600-23700 while it sustains above 23000 but we have to caution for any profit taking after the actual election results come today. Nikkei has dipped, failing to rise past 39000 and might trade within 39000-38000 for a while before an upside breakout is seen. Shanghai is coming down towards its key support which is expected to hold and produce a bounce back from there.

Crude prices have tumbled on the release of weaker US ISM Manufacturing PMI data and have scope to fall towards their key support in the near term before a bounce back can be seen. Gold and Silver to trade sideways between 2300-2400 and 30-33 for a while. Copper has to rise past 4.70 to bring back the bullishness. Else it could fall back towards 4.50. Natural gas has risen well and has scope rise further towards 2.90-3.00.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.

05 Jun 24. 0846 IST or 0316 GMT or 2316 EST

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index below 104.50-105, looks bearish to 103 in the near term. Euro can rise to 1.10 if the Dollar weakens as expected. EURJPY and USDJPY have come off a bit as the Yen strengthens against Dollar. Now whether the fall gets extended to 168-167 and 152 respectively or gets halted around current levels will have to be seen. USDCNY may rise to 7.25/26 in the medium term. Aussie and Pound are holding well below their crucial resistances at 0.67 and 1.28 respectively. EURINR is near the crucial level of 91 which could hold for now. USDINR remained volatile within 83.00-83.50/60 region as expected and can continue to do so for the rest of the week as well on market reactions post the Lok Sabha elections. In the medium term, we need to wait and watch which way the pair will show a breakout.

The US Treasury yields continue to fall in line with our expectation. Intermediate supports are coming up which if broken can trigger more fall. The German yields are poised around their key supports. Failure to rise back from current levels can drag them lower. The ECB meeting tomorrow is important to watch.The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have surged after the General Election results yesterday. Need to see if this rise sustains or not. We will have to wait and watch for a few sessions to get confirmation on the strength of this surge.

Dow Jones can rise towards 39000 while above 38000-37800. A further rise past 39000 is needed for increased bullishness. DAX has fallen back and can test 18200 before a bounce back can happen. Nifty has tumbled below 22000 due to election results. A strong rise past 22400-22500 is needed to bring back the bullishness. Else there can be danger of falling further. Nikkei has dipped further but downside seems limited to 38000-37800. Shanghai has bounced back as the support at 3050 is holding well.

Commodities have fallen on Lower than expected US JOLTS Job Openings data. Crude prices remain vulnerable to a fall towards their key support in the near term before a bounce back can be seen. Gold to trade sideways between 2400-2300 for a while. Silver, Copper and Natural Gas have fallen back sharply and have scope to fall further towards their support which can hold and produce a bounce back from there.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.

06 Jun 24. 0856 IST or 0326 GMT or 2326 EST

Good Morning!

Lower US ADP Employment rate led to fall in the Dollar Index towards 104. The Index can trade within 104.50-104 for the next few sessions while Euro is headed towards 1.09 which if breaks on the upside can extend to 1.0930/50 before coming off again within the 1.09-1.08 range. EURJPY and USDJPY looks ranged within 168-170 and 154-156.50 respectively. USDCNY may remain stable below 7.25. Aussie and Pound trade higher but can soon dip if the current rise does not sustain. EURINR fell from 91.20, unable to sustain the rise. While below 91, it can trade within 89.50-91 region. USDINR is likely to sustain trade within 83.20-83.60 region.

The US Treasury yields have come down further and are below their intermediate supports. There is room to fall further from here in the near-term before a reversal is seen. The German yields have also dipped below their intermediate supports. They can also see an extended dip from here before resuming their broader uptrend. The ECB meeting outcome today is important to watch. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have declined below 7.1%. They have to sustain above their immediate support to rise back again. Else they can move back into the earlier sideways range again.

Dow Jones is heading up towards 39000 as expected. A rise past 39000 is needed for increased bullishness. DAX broader outlook will remain bullish as long as it holds above 18400-18200. Nifty has recovered well above 22500 and while this sustains, a further rise can be seen in the near term. Nikkei has bounced back towards 39000 and has scope to break above it and rise further while above the support at 38000. Shanghai can rally towards 3150 as long as it holds above 3050.

Commodities have recovered well. Crude prices has recovered a bit but have resistance ahead, which if holds, can keep our bearish view intact. Gold has moved up towards it upper end of the range. Need to see it it breaks higher or not. Silver has bounced back but needs to rise past 31 to strengthen the bullish momentum. Copper has bounced above 4.60 and while the bounce sustains, a further rise towards 4.7-4.8 can be seen. Natural Gas looks ranged between 2.5-3.0. All eyes are on ECB meeting today where the central bank is expected to deliver a rate cut.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.