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The Swamp

  • #117,201
  • May 10, 2024 9:27am May 10, 2024 9:27am
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} It seems the expectation of rate cuts of all other currencies gave the Dollar the upper hand despite any bad news from US.
It was into big R also. I had figured those options would carry it. -0753 it may speed up fall
I wasn't a deer in the headlights. Once below 0775. It was time to cut bait.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #117,202
  • May 10, 2024 9:53am May 10, 2024 9:53am
Its not looking like it will go back to 0775 in the next 10 min. Dynamic support at 0762 and 0748. But once below 0753.. It may just fall. Lets say a 1h close below 0748 to make it smoother/safer. I will have some R somewhere around 0762 to add later.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #117,203
  • May 10, 2024 10:20am May 10, 2024 10:20am
That drop after negative usd news has 0753 in my scope. 30m close below 0762 and a 1h below 0748 should gel with 0753. While working on these supports . 0764 may get some face time. Light R 0768/7x ish. this is the opinion for today.
Month opinion is pa can be testing 0768 pobo. PA is still above 0753. It needs to fall below 53 and close today below it. To fall and hold a fall. It needs to take -0695 and make LL to continue to fall. All these need to be held with pa below
0753 is key in both.
PA is above 0753 atm
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #117,204
  • May 10, 2024 10:47am May 10, 2024 10:47am
What happened to the Asian(i think) lady that was here all the time on this thread?....
  • #117,205
  • May 10, 2024 12:07pm May 10, 2024 12:07pm
I have no handle on pa since the bounce at 0768ish earlier. I thought it would be bullish, even more after news. But she dropped. Now she is rising. I thought a breakin dynamic support at 0762, to test 0753. PA is now back above 0771 in the 12h range box. Have a good weekend..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #117,206
  • May 10, 2024 12:39pm May 10, 2024 12:39pm
Quoting gatorinla
I have no handle on pa since the bounce at 0768ish earlier. I thought it would be bullish, even more after news. But she dropped. Now she is rising. I thought a breakin dynamic support at 0762, to test 0753. PA is now back above 0771 in the 12h range box. Have a good weekend..
It's manipulation. EURUSD doesn't move because of good and band news fundamentals. Different accounts have different effect on the market. Kind of like the chaos theory and market efficiency together, but with a sinister result. There's forces at play.
  • #117,207
  • May 10, 2024 4:13pm May 10, 2024 4:13pm
Quoting gatorinla
That drop after negative usd news has 0753 in my scope. 30m close below 0762 and a 1h below 0748 should gel with 0753. While working on these supports . 0764 may get some face time. Light R 0768/7x ish. this is the opinion for today. Month opinion is pa can be testing 0768 pobo. PA is still above 0753. It needs to fall below 53 and close today below it. To fall and hold a fall. It needs to take -0695 and make LL to continue to fall. All these need to be held with pa below 0753 is key in both. PA is above 0753 atm {image}
This to me separates bear bull. Mine says the close is 0768.4. The open may be lower. It does look like a week above 0768.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #117,208
  • May 10, 2024 4:15pm May 10, 2024 4:15pm
Quoting Southeast
{quote} It's manipulation. EURUSD doesn't move because of good and band news fundamentals. Different accounts have different effect on the market. Kind of like the chaos theory and market efficiency together, but with a sinister result. There's forces at play.
Yeah, and Elvis is alive with his alien son. Playing clubs around the cosmos. It would take some deep pockets, deeper than most countries. To nudge a 4 trillion dollar market around. I'm a sceptic when a person says something with no proof.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #117,209
  • May 10, 2024 4:33pm May 10, 2024 4:33pm
Quoting gatorinla
That drop after negative usd news has 0753 in my scope. 30m close below 0762 and a 1h below 0748 should gel with 0753. While working on these supports . 0764 may get some face time. Light R 0768/7x ish. this is the opinion for today. Month opinion is pa can be testing 0768 pobo. PA is still above 0753. It needs to fall below 53 and close today below it. To fall and hold a fall. It needs to take -0695 and make LL to continue to fall. All these need to be held with pa below 0753 is key in both. PA is above 0753 atm {image}
Week wise taking a close below 0753 would be more clear. As it stands the close at 0768.4 muddies things. Between the last tick it may have closed -0768. The open may show lower. I may be scalping. 60 pips up may be a short. 60 pips down may a long. For Monday only. PA is above 0753 and 68 with a week close. PA is above 0753 0768 0694.5. With a week close. The month closed below all of these. The quarter 0785. Friday tested the Q close.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #117,210
  • Edited May 11, 2024 7:26am May 10, 2024 10:06pm | Edited May 11, 2024 7:26am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Yeah, and Elvis is alive with his alien son. Playing clubs around the cosmos. It would take some deep pockets, deeper than most countries. To nudge a 4 trillion dollar market around. I'm a sceptic when a person says something with no proof.
Didn't you see what just happened this morning....How much more proof do you need and how many times. Does someone have to smack you in the head with a 2x4" with it written all over it? You get a stupid answer from your stupid post.

You've been here how many years since your first post on this thread and I can't believe that you're here just post charts. You should've picked up on this by now.

If there's genuine curiosity and I mean genuine intellectual curiosity message me. I'm not looking for an argument or to be challenged.
  • #117,211
  • May 12, 2024 5:58pm May 12, 2024 5:58pm
Quoting Southeast
{quote} It's manipulation. EURUSD doesn't move because of good and band news fundamentals. Different accounts have different effect on the market. Kind of like the chaos theory and market efficiency together, but with a sinister result. There's forces at play.
What you're describing sounds like an algorithm controlling price. A belief that's risen in popularity with the meteoric rise of ICT and "smart money concepts" in recent years. I believe it too. It's not all buying/selling pressure, and I mostly ignore the news.

That being said, there's no need to be a dick and talk down to people. There's a million ways to make a million dollars. Not everybody has to believe in the algo. A heck of a lot of people are perfectly fine making a living using retail concepts like trendlines, etc. Gator's a fixture around here and trades in a way that makes him money. Who is anyone to tell him he's wrong if he's seeing consistent results over the years?
  • #117,212
  • May 12, 2024 6:17pm May 12, 2024 6:17pm
Gatorinla you are one of the rare traders for which I have a very high esteem and that I religiously read discretely.

Big Cheers for being here !!!
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #117,213
  • May 12, 2024 7:15pm May 12, 2024 7:15pm
Quoting Southeast
{quote} Didn't you see what just happened this morning....How much more proof do you need and how many times. Does someone have to smack you in the head with a 2x4" with it written all over it? You get a stupid answer from your stupid post. You've been here how many years since your first post on this thread and I can't believe that you're here just post charts. You should've picked up on this by now. If there's genuine curiosity and I mean genuine intellectual curiosity message me. I'm not looking for an argument or to be challenged.
Yeah, I once believed in Santa too. Until my big sis brought me into the attic one day. She showed me a possible error in my beliefs. I had to accept it a few days later. After seeing the same stuff under the tree. So Mr. intellectual. Show what's under your tree. To avoid confusion. Is the manipulation taking it up, or down? Where is it going, and when? Show me the proof in what your belief is in a posted chart. It's easy to say manipulation in this or that. An algo is not a manipulation. If you have some intellectual proff. It should be easy to show. After all its proof. A lack of prof is just a guy feeling more important than reality.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #117,214
  • May 12, 2024 7:18pm May 12, 2024 7:18pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Week wise taking a close below 0753 would be more clear. As it stands the close at 0768.4 muddies things. Between the last tick it may have closed -0768. The open may show lower. I may be scalping. 60 pips up may be a short. 60 pips down may a long. For Monday only. PA is above 0753 and 68 with a week close. PA is above 0753 0768 0694.5. With a week close. The month closed below all of these. The quarter 0785. Friday tested the Q close.
My open was 1.0767.5
Lack of agreement between ticks.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #117,215
  • May 12, 2024 7:25pm May 12, 2024 7:25pm
0764. may attract. Adr is about 61 pips. If pa is +- 30/61 pips of *0764. It could be a good time to look for signs of a run back to 0764. Into early NY.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #117,216
  • May 13, 2024 2:01am May 13, 2024 2:01am
No notable news until Tuesday. ATM pa has been about 15 pips + 0764. If it could get below 0768 and 53. 15 pips below at 0749ish..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #117,217
  • May 13, 2024 3:08am May 13, 2024 3:08am
My 12h and 24h dynamic are still bearish 0807 and 0906 close wise. The 1h dynamic is bullish at 0747. Some anticipation in 0753 holding support. I may shoot for a long. An attraction to 0764 may take it closer. If it looks to bottom. It may be a long. The quarter pp at 0843.
If 0753 and 0747 dont hold Its a scratch. Once below these, if that were to happen. 0764 may pull it back to it. The 8h/1h are bullish. They may force the test of the 12h 0807. 0764 should be watched.
With pa above 0768... it has to be considered. Somewhere in that 0841/0906 area may be a slapdown. It may be as low as the 12h 0807 area.. It all an area to watch.
S1 quarter is supporting pa. It dont have to break lower.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #117,218
  • May 13, 2024 3:19am May 13, 2024 3:19am
Quoting gatorinla
My 12h and 24h dynamic are still bearish 0807 and 0906 close wise. The 1h dynamic is bullish at 0747. Some anticipation in 0753 holding support. I may shoot for a long. An attraction to 0764 may take it closer. If it looks to bottom. It may be a long. The quarter pp at 0843. If 0753 and 0747 dont hold Its a scratch. Once below these, if that were to happen. 0764 may pull it back to it. The 8h/1h are bullish. They may force the test of the 12h 0807. 0764 should be watched. With pa above 0768... it has to be considered. Somewhere in that 0841/0906...
I do not know if 0764 will pull it. It does often. If/when it does. It may show signs of a bounce. Its a time to see if it or supports are holding. I can imagine many are waiting to buy on a pullback. Some nice long volume may be there. So if it breaks -0753. That's greater volume in short orders.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #117,219
  • May 13, 2024 3:46am May 13, 2024 3:46am
I left a few pending longs near 0753.. Some possible Support 0747/51/53 under 0764. After 0764, if it runs back to 082x 43 64 or 0907. I have plans to short (in coming the days). If that 12h 0807 is broken. It may press the higher in the lower 09 area.

But as things stand. It often will run down to 0764 anytime now before LC. Its just not worth the risk until its further from 0764. With adr at 61. Its better to look for exhaustion on a run up with a lot of adr spent.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #117,220
  • May 13, 2024 4:01am May 13, 2024 4:01am
I like to find some R and have a sign of exhaustion. Its all personal choices. It dont always make 0764 again. So it's best to have multiple reasons reasons. Plus have to R/R to one's advantage. That's why I like to have adr as a guide. A exhaustion sign near 60 over adr, is better than one at 10 over adr.
0790 being on the lower scaled places. If I thought the trend more bearish, 0790 is better than where price was earlier.
I didnt mention 0788.. 0788 places 0764 1/2 way to 0753.
So if 0788 would force it lower. 0764 would pp. with 0753 the same length on the dog chain.
0753 is where I hope support would be. But if it can't hold. Friday it did hold. A bullish sign.
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