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forex fundamentals are way too vast

  • #41
  • Jul 4, 2007 1:25pm Jul 4, 2007 1:25pm
Quoting iandekoker
ok explain to me why i made over 2000 pips in june without any losses if you insist that no losses = no wins?

I'd say the answer is you might be delusional, But while it is possible to go for extended periods of time with no or very minimal amount of losses it all comes back to get you in the end.

No pain, no gain. There is another for you and free of charge, too.

I like the analogy some trading book authors have used that losses are a cost of doing business. The trading business. Every business has income and expenses. Profits are income. Commissions and/or spread, data and losses are expenses.

There is just no getting around it. Period.

But you are different. Good luck Mr No loss.
  • #42
  • Jul 4, 2007 1:35pm Jul 4, 2007 1:35pm
Quoting SunTrader
I'd say the answer is you might be delusional, But while it is possible to go for extended periods of time with no or very minimal amount of losses it all comes back to get you in the end.

No pain, no gain. There is another for you and free of charge, too.

I like the analogy some trading book authors have used that losses are a cost of doing business. The trading business. Every business has income and expenses. Profits are income. Commissions and/or spread, data and losses are expenses.

There is just no getting around it. Period.

But you are different. Good luck Mr No loss.
ok tell me after 13 years of trading.....how many accounts have u blown? ur last or maybe only) account what did u invest to start with and what is the account balance now?

maybe i can learn something from you......
  • #43
  • Jul 4, 2007 2:17pm Jul 4, 2007 2:17pm
No blown account. But in the first few years I had many a big drawdown. Because............. I was unwilling to take a loss. This was trading stocks.

I had one particular stock in the Nasdaq bubble period Tellabs (TLAB)which went from $68 down to $42 @ 500 shares represented a $13000 loss It was supposed to be a daytrade. Which instead turned into a 6 month trade. I held and lucky for me (and thats what is was, pure luck) it came back and went as high as $77. I think I bailed out with a $4/share profit.

It has never traded above my original purchase price $68/share again and has been as low as $4/share and now stands at around $11/share.

What I learned is the next time the reverse would probably happen and wipe me out. Therefore the risk is assessed before I worry about the reward. And there is always risk no matter the planning and analysis. Some trades more than others for sure but it is always there.

+ + +

As far as how much I have made, I would not be foolish to publicize the fact to anyone on a public forum or via PM. Who would?
  • #44
  • Jul 4, 2007 3:28pm Jul 4, 2007 3:28pm
Quoting SunTrader
No blown account. But in the first few years I had many a big drawdown. Because............. I was unwilling to take a loss. This was trading stocks.

I had one particular stock in the Nasdaq bubble period Tellabs (TLAB)which went from $68 down to $42 @ 500 shares represented a $13000 loss It was supposed to be a daytrade. Which instead turned into a 6 month trade. I held and lucky for me (and thats what is was, pure luck) it came back and went as high as $77. I think I bailed out with a $4/share profit.

It has never traded above my original purchase price $68/share again and has been as low as $4/share and now stands at around $11/share.

What I learned is the next time the reverse would probably happen and wipe me out. Therefore the risk is assessed before I worry about the reward. And there is always risk no matter the planning and analysis. Some trades more than others for sure but it is always there.

+ + +

As far as how much I have made, I would not be foolish to publicize the fact to anyone on a public forum or via PM. Who would?
ok just as i thought. i asked you two questions (1. how much money did u start with? 2. What is ur current balance?) yet you refused to answer them.

Please do not be offended if i dont respond to your future posts cause u have proven to me that ur quick to shoot others efforts down yet ur not man enough to share ur own efforts with others.....

no offense....i do wish u the best of trading days
  • #45
  • Jul 4, 2007 6:43pm Jul 4, 2007 6:43pm
Quoting iandekoker
ok just as i thought. i asked you two questions (1. how much money did u start with? 2. What is ur current balance?) yet you refused to answer them.

Please do not be offended if i dont respond to your future posts cause u have proven to me that ur quick to shoot others efforts down yet ur not man enough to share ur own efforts with others.....

no offense....i do wish u the best of trading days
No offense taken and the best of trading days to you as well.

In all my years online I have yet to see and more importantly believe anyone's financial details that they would willing disclose to the whole world. Or at least the whole world that comes to FF or other online chat forums.

Besides you can believe what you want. I know that I am still in the game these many years later. Plan on being around many more.
  • #46
  • Jul 5, 2007 11:28pm Jul 5, 2007 11:28pm
Quoting iandekoker
ok if i can find anyone that will tell me ecatley what price the eur/usd will be trading at at 14:00 on monday 9 july then i will listen to them....but since i know that nobody can predict the future i dont think there is anyone out there that can do it......

ps...if everyone followed aristotle we would still think the earth is flat.....thank god for the copernicusses' and galilei's of the world....people who think for themselves...lol

no no, I didnt mean it that way...nobody said learn to predict the market...I mean you can learn from the different stratgies people use...I dont mean listen to what people tell you to do or what to buy or sell...I mean listen to how other people explain the reason for the different ways they trade...I mean that is one grows you know, by learning from others

and by the way aristotle taught Alexander the Great who conquered nations and is the most notable leader in history...but it was Pablo Picasso who said that quote just so its known.

Bill Gates in Silicon Valley said that quote also...because he stole the idea of Window from Apple, who stole that idea from IBM...and now Bill's a billionare...
  • #47
  • Edited 12:10am Jul 6, 2007 12:04am | Edited 12:10am
  •  Rumi
  • | Joined Mar 2006 | Status: Student of forex trading | 44 Posts
Could someone please inform moderators that this thread has gone completely off topic?!!!

Here is my take on fundamentals. You can trade them short term. Long term is really difficult. Your best bet is to take the main fundamental reports that move the currency and then keep record and watch how each particular report is tranding. i.e. Has the CPI consistently been coming out lower and lower? I agree with the interest rates being the real divers of the markets. Still I think it's a bit crazy to think that one can predict the markets long term with fundamentals only. I also think it's crazy to trade short term without taking fundamentals into account.

Long term, I would use Technical Analysis mostly, and just keep my eye on the some previous fundamental factors to maybe help your decision. Beware market analysts! They don't trade for a living. If they were that good, they would be doing that instead. They have no way to predict the market any better then you do. At the end of the day, everyone finds out the news at the same time.

As for the discussion of earnings per month, I have one thing to say: as my Martial Arts instructor says: Throw Down! If you can fight (trade), then fight (trade). If you can't then decide to keep learning or don't. I'll tell you one more thing. I know guys who have been doing martial arts for years , have 3 black belts and I can get one guy with 3 months experience from my school and trash the other guy. Experience doesn't prove squat. Sometimes it proves someone has spent years filling their heads with useless information but can sound really smart about it. My instructor also says:The toughest guy in the room has no need to tell the world how tough he is and rarely listens to hotheads who shoot their mouths off. When it comes time to fight though, they can fight. It's the weak guys that go around talking trash and threatening others and feeling threatened by others. To everyone out there: YOU HAVE NOTHING TO PROVE TO NO ONE! I can guaranteee you that if there are traders out there making 20-30% a month none of them are going to be on this thread going around trying to convince someone that they can. Why? Because they can and they know it and don't really care what anyone else thinks. It's just a waste of energy. they would rather spend that energy on improving their trading. They have more important things to do: trade! Those going around laughing at others need to go do something more important with their lives like: trade!

In the end that's why we came here. To learn to be better traders. Quit wasting your time and go about some better business...oh yeah, right this is a business NOT AN EGO COMPETITION! This is like negative water cooler talk when instead we could be out there brainstorming, offering ideas, contributing, helping each other out...learning to be better traders and making more money. Spepticism is good if it's going to lead to something better, otherwise keep it to yourself. I've got a potential setup for a bounce trade coming up so I got to go.

Just my two cents....
  • #48
  • Jul 6, 2007 1:47am Jul 6, 2007 1:47am
Knowing about fundamental is not necessary an obligation. It depend of your style of trading and moreover, the time frame that you are using.

Personally, when I started I was using small time frame, between 15M and H1. After some time and unsuccesful trading experience, I went back to what I was doing with stock.
Now I start long time frame like D1 and W1. But for me, technical is not enough, because I need to now what exactly is going on. With a macroeconic background, fundamental analysis is kind of an obligation for me. However, is not necessary to know the most complicate theory, for the simple reason that you won't be able to forecast numbers efficiently. However, you will be able to find the direction which is enough to forecast the direction of the central bank policy and the economy in general, which is just what you need to use fundamental analysis as a trading tool.

However, you have to remenber that is doesn't matter to be right, because is what the market thing is going to happen that matter. However, the differential between the market point of view and your analysis can become one of the best indicator if your analysis is good, because more the differential is important more, in case you are right, the correction in the market will be important.
Nevertheless, a last variable is necessary to take into consideration. TIME. Time is everything in trading, and in long term position it's particularly true. Therefore the last thing necessary to do is, when the differential between the two analysis is important, what will change the point of view of the market. A data (generaly the case) or another piece of news (see february).

So, for long time, fundamental analysis is important for me. And a simple model like IS/LM, Aggregate demand/offer, is enough to undersand what is going on. In addition, check the web site of some central bank (RBA, BoE, or RBNZ for example). They prupose a lot of information on this subject, and also the tool and model that they use. However, those tool are a little complex to start with, but they are usefull to understand and forecast their policy.
Also, market analysis on the market, equity market, bond market are usefull too. You take, last february correction for example, it help a lot to forecast it.
Nevertheless, is not an obligation to be succesfull in trading. It has to correspond to your style and personality of trading. For me, it does, but it is just my case, that all.
Concerning short time frame, it is not necessary at all. Checking the news and the point of view of the market is much more important for time frame like H1 and H4. Personally, when I trade those time frame, I take the direction that I found on the Daily as the "big picture" directionon the short term. However, the direction of the position, will be influence principally by news, data of the week/day, and technical analysis on those time frame. However, if both direction are the same, I tend to augment the number of lot that I take.

To sum up, it depend of you. If it correspond to your style, learn about it. If your analysis is good enough, use it. But learn about it, test and try it before using in live trade. Personally, I train my self for 6 to 9 month in a row before using it in live trading.
  • #49
  • Edited 7:45am Jul 6, 2007 2:01am | Edited 7:45am
Quoting SeekingLight
I'd advise to try and ignore if possible 100% of the rest of the world in trading. Trade detached, autistic, don't read other people's opinions, trades, calls or analysis. ESPECIALLY when starting out.
I'm not joking.

Find a working system, isolate yourself, perfect it, ignore all else.
This guy said he didn't know anything about fundies, he should start somewhere with economic term and relationships...

How could someone learn if he/she doesn't listen to anyone? he/she invents facts or how?
Quoting SeekingLight
Find a working system, isolate yourself, perfect it, ignore all else.
The majority of systems works until the market changes it's basics conditions... it's better for a newby to learn about everything, and sort what he likes and doesn't like after
"Abandon all hope, you who enter here" La Divina Commedia, Dante Alighieri
  • #50
  • Jul 6, 2007 8:33am Jul 6, 2007 8:33am
Quoting semar
This guy said he didn't know anything about fundies, he should start somewhere with economic term and relationships...

How could someone learn if he/she doesn't listen to anyone? he/she invents facts or how?


The majority of systems works until the market changes it's basics conditions... it's better for a newby to learn about everything, and sort what he likes and doesn't like after
I think what Seeking meant is that After you learn the basics and find a system to work with that you're confident works, then try not listen to many people's opinions, analysts predictions, and jumping from system to system.

Obviously if you're just starting out as a newbie, you'll have to listen to someone. But the point is that many people get influenced easily by too many sources and their trading suffers as a result.

Find what works, stick with it, and immerse yourself in it if you ever plan on being profficient.

Tom
  • #51
  • Last Post: Sep 15, 2007 9:36pm Sep 15, 2007 9:36pm
this to method are not oppsite to each other the trend affects the news and the new affect the trend the experienced trader follows them both i believe.
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