Daily GBP/JPY analysis

well the crosses dont seem to know what to do....exactly as i had mentioned in my blog...tomorrow should be very interesting...

this is one pattern of many that elliote analyser would take care of to predict the direction

more steps to be taken to analyse the waves

Many thanks

i was selling the top when GBPJPY was falling

then I take the profit of 120+

then I open another long trade

you are not following my posts , aren't ya !!!

I am trading currency all the time up and down while you were waiting to ride the roket

I am more felixible to trade all direction as i understand where the market price level should reach

Many thanks

o y . very good
have a nice trade

Get ready for breakout tommorrow...

Which direction are u leading toward? north or south?

I think the GBPJPY is heading NORTH if the BOE raise the interest rate tommorrow..I have my order setup for a breakout ..

Good Luck..

THink the bouncing around 247 has stopped and the upward trend is coming back to play.

the triangle is getting narrow now I am afarid of a whipsaw, it has been a while since we saw one, and lots of orders are stacked on both side of the market.

Be careful traders there might be some dirty moves to hit the tight stoploss on big accounts.

Preview - Bank of England Faces Key Decision
The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) faces a very important interest rate decision this Thursday as policy mistakes now could prove costly.

After a surge in headline consumer inflation at the beginning of 2007, the rate has started to moderate as big price increases last year are coming out of the calculation.

There are still concerns that underlying inflation is edging higher and the bank will need to keep inflation expectations under control. The headline rate is also still significantly above the 2.0% target at 2.5%

The economy is still growing steadily and house prices have remained strong even though there is evidence of an underlying deterioration in conditions. Consumer spending levels appear to have weakened slightly.

Failure to increase interest rates this month would risk damaging credibility, but a decision to increase rates when the economy is already slowing would risk a very sharp economic downturn later in 2007.

The recent comments from Bank of England officials suggest that a unanimous vote is unlikely this week. Indeed, it is certainly possible that the decision will be very close and a rate increase is by no means certain as there will be some votes for unchanged rates.

The evidence suggests that Bank Governor King will again vote for an increase and will exert pressure for dissenters to back his judgement this time around.

If interest rates are increased, the statement accompanying the decision will need to be watched closely to assess future policy decisions. If rates are held unchanged, there will not be a statement.

Overall, there is around a 70% chance that rates will be increased with the MPC deciding that an increase can be reversed quickly if necessary. There has been some speculation over a 0.5% increase, but this option should be rejected.

Sterling has effectively fully priced in a rate increase this month and the UK currency will weaken sharply if rates are not increased.

The UK currency should strengthen initially if rates are increased, but gains will probably not be sustained and Sterling could well end up with net losses, especially if the statement expresses doubts over a further increase.
__________________
Tim Clayton
Investica Ltd Head of Research
Forex Factory Analyst

Written by Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist
http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/...eaction/K1.gif
How Will The Markets React?
Interest rate announcements are always important for the foreign exchange market. With the Bank of England, this upcoming rate decision will be market moving regardless of whether they decide to raise interest rates or not. After having raised rates in May and then leaving them unchanged in June, the BoE is expected to lift rates from 5.50 to 5.75 percent tomorrow. Of the 60 economists surveyed by Bloomberg, 52 or 87 percent of them are calling for an interest rate hike. This almost unanimous view puts the “surprise” element of the event risk to the downside. Therefore if the Bank of England leaves rates unchanged or raises rates and then issues some very neutral language in their statement, we could see a far larger move in the GBP/USD than if they do exactly what the futures curve is pricing in, which is to raises rates and remain hawkish. According to futures traders, the BoE could bring rates up to 6 percent by the end of the year. The recent movements in the currency, bond and stock markets indicate that British pound and Gilt traders are expecting higher rates while stock traders are not.

BOE and NFP news tomorrow. I staying the hell out for awhile.

It has been moving up and down a lot, making a few pips here and there.
You are right but the big movement will come after the BOE statement.
I am holding a few longs around 247. I expect an upward shift after the statement.

fingers crossed

Looks like sidus is taking the cream from the pot

Just TP the remaining positon for 30. Still long UJ and GU, let them roll...

Be back tomorrow for the fireworks.

down, short

And the pot still sits stale, anticipations were high, but no cigar as of yet

Beware of the whipsaw!!

Here we go! Here we go! Here we go! Here we go! Here we go! Here we go! Here we go! Here we go! Here we go! Here we go! Here we go! Here we go!

Muwahahahahahah I bet nothing happens.

: I'm going to the bank....