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Sorry. But you all need it. 47 replies

Sorry to disturb, but iam really confuse 20 replies

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Forex Profit... Im sorry but... (10% per month?)

  • #61
  • Jul 3, 2007 10:03pm Jul 3, 2007 10:03pm
Quoting randomlight
mbqb11,sometimes it helps to think before you hit the send button.
For you to imply that you worry about me because I am going live but can`t grasp what you are saying is juvenile and insulting.
But then you are only 23 years old ,That in it`self is no issue but I want you to know that I have been investing in the stock market for longer than you have been alive. I also have been studying different fx systems for three years. I blew a 6000.00 account two years ago and I know very well what I am up against.
I am not someone who needs your concern son.I have boys your age who know it all.

This is in response to the poorly thought out reply below

"only thing that is worrisome is this quote
Quote:
Originally Posted by randomlight http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
I will soon be trading full time though and will let anyone who is interested know if I do find 10 pips a day a real challenge.

yet, a simple concept isn't making sense to you."


Ps, it was nice of you to ...as you say "put it real real basic for poor warper too.
ooooooooooooh. Low blow...

randomlight, cool down before u hurt someone

and mbqb11 just chill cuz people here been trading for over 20 years and know a thing or 2 that you dont ok?!
100% of traders are losers. Just that some win more than they lose!
  • #62
  • Jul 3, 2007 10:11pm Jul 3, 2007 10:11pm
Quoting mbqb11
...yep im 23 ...

much success to you and I do mean that
Mike
Whhrreeeee... Offside! AND I have my right hand poised over my left breast pocket. If you like, I can swing it around to my Right Rear...

Seriously randomL. MBQ is one of the most willing on this frum to help others. I would like to suggest that if he offers something contradictory to what you presently believe, that you may consider asking WHY?

Just a thought...
  • #63
  • Jul 3, 2007 10:13pm Jul 3, 2007 10:13pm
[quote=Mr demark;

and mbqb11 just chill cuz people here been trading for over 20 years and know a thing or 2 that you dont ok?![/quote]

LOL,

I am trying to help someone gain knowledge that they don't have that has been taught to me by successful traders. So I guess trying to help people is a bad thing now(especially since I have only a year experience right?). I never once said I know everything or even pretend to know everything. I gained all my knowledge by having an open mind and learning from those gracious enough to spend their time on me.

And my posts on the public side itch ever closer to less.


best,
Mike
  • #64
  • Jul 3, 2007 10:20pm Jul 3, 2007 10:20pm
Quoting mbqb11
LOL,

... So I guess trying to help people is a bad thing now(especially since I have only a year experience right?).
Mike.. I doubt, very seriously, that this is what you assimilated!



Quoting mbqb11
And my posts on the public side itch ever closer to less.
best,
Mike
I seriously hope not.

Bmc passes Mike a double illustrious Single Malt. "Here Bud. Climb outside this and take a breather."
  • #65
  • Jul 3, 2007 10:23pm Jul 3, 2007 10:23pm
Quoting Bemac

Bmc passes Mike a double illustrious Single Malt. "Here Bud. Climb outside this and take a breather."
Cheers bud!

I got the next round :
  • #66
  • Jul 3, 2007 10:24pm Jul 3, 2007 10:24pm
ok i see. But i just hate when people post against each other's views.
100% of traders are losers. Just that some win more than they lose!
  • #67
  • Edited 10:39pm Jul 3, 2007 10:25pm | Edited 10:39pm
mbqb11, I'm sorry. I just recognized one of that threads and returned here before any reading.

But regarding your example, let me put it in extremely basics for you :

You said you lose 1% followed by a 2% win. -60 pips +1%

The implied and hidden question here is that, who can really be sure if the second trade will erase the loss, if the trader was so wrong in his first prediction?

What you dont understand is that you are entering in a mathematical field that presupposes that any trade has a 50-50 chance of winning and by increasing position size will easly get us in profit, because after a loss there comes a win.

But if we add to that cold mechanic theory, the element that a trader who loses 100, might lose the other 20 because losing 100 many times per month implies that he hasnt a clue of what is doing. And then we have,, -2%, and now we get back to the first margin mode 100 pips = 1%. You are now 201 pips away from profit. So, im not seeing a great trader here.

This is not like this. "Hey i lost 100 pips, i will make a trade of 40 pips to get back because its a sure win, even knowing that i was tottaly wrrrrrong in the last time.

Please, think. What can be more logic than this? A guy who loses many times will have more probability of losing again despite your "even trading mith". So he has a good chance of losing the "get on profit" trades and end up with serious trouble.

In other simple words, the best definition for this is Paradox.
Mathematically possible, but the simple fact that negative pips means deficient analysis. (Techs and Funds)

We Can Not Be Sure In That Pip Losing Conditions, What Will Be The Outcome Of the Next Trade To Know For Sure That Its Right To Rise The Position, Based On A Previous Loss!
  • #68
  • Jul 3, 2007 10:35pm Jul 3, 2007 10:35pm
Quoting Warper
mbqb11, I'm sorry. I just recognized one of that threads and returned here before any reading.

But regarding your example, let me put it in mega basics for you :

You said you lose 1% followed by a 2% win. -60 pips +1%

The implied and hidden question here is that, who can really be sure if the second trade will erase the loss, if the trader was so wrong in his first prediction?


What you dont understand is that you are entering in a mathematical field that presupposes that any trade has a 50-50 chance of winning and by increasing position size will easly get us in profit, because after a loss there comes a win.

But if we add to that cold mechanic theory, the element that a trader who loses 100, might lose the other 20 because losing 100 many times per month implies that he hasnt a clue of what is doing. And then we have, -120, -2%, and now we get back to the first margin mode 100 pips = 1%. You are now 201 pips away from profit. So, im not seeing a great trader here.

This is not like this. "Hey i lost 100 pips, i will make a trade of 40 pips to get back because its a sure win even knowing that i was tottaly wrrrrrong in the last time.

Please, think. What can be more logic than this. The guy who loses many times will have more probability of losing again despite your "even trading mith". So he has a good chance of losing the "get on profit" trades and end up with serious trouble.
My example was just a simple view of a trader who has variable stop sizes(as many do). There are many times when I may have a stop of 100 pts, and the next trade a stop 1/4-1/2 that size. You are correct about how can one assume that trade number 2 will be a success. But the reason for putting on trade 2 should be the same reason for putting on trade 1, it fits into your trading plan(whatever that may be). I don't mean to use trade 2 as a way to catch trade 1's loss. I hope that makes sense here.


Next comes the factor of winning %(addressing your last paragraph here). If I told you trader A has a win % was only 32% and trader B has a win % of 80%. Is trader B a better trader? Sure trader A has a much higher chance of losing the next trade, but is that what really matters?

again like the pips is not what counts, win % is not what counts. BUT, if you begin to take all these pieces, NOW you can start to piece together the puzzle.

Mike
  • #69
  • Jul 3, 2007 10:35pm Jul 3, 2007 10:35pm
I play eve while i wait for "my sigs" .. helps.
USD Est Non Mortuus
  • #70
  • Jul 3, 2007 10:47pm Jul 3, 2007 10:47pm
Quoting Mr demark
ok i see. But i just hate when people post against each other's views.
MrD. I assume, from your compendium of posts, you are a successfull Trader.
I would like to think myself in your company BUT My methods are consntantly being challenged by what, I'm sure, Freshmen consider 'Silly Questions'.

After all this time {& a couple of bucks} I still, like you, frequent this room looking for the unknown link. I know not from whence it will arrive. If you do, please inform me.

{Not intended as a slight. merley a question}


  • #71
  • Edited Jul 4, 2007 9:13am Jul 3, 2007 11:05pm | Edited Jul 4, 2007 9:13am
At least you tried to understand. I will try to not bother anyone more with this, but...

Quoting mbqb11
If I told you trader A has a win % was only 32% and trader B has a win % of 80%. Is trader B a better trader? Sure trader A has a much higher chance of losing the next trade, but is that what really matters?
In this case you presented, it matters also the R:R to multiply with the winning probability, to know whos winning more pips.

But the big problem here is the fact that at least for the time being, we dont have a Winner O' Meter, to know in advance the exact probability of winning in the next trade. If that kind of measure was avaiable you sure would be right, because we would be able to ajust with precision the progression/increase in the position size, to make that "progression vs long term probability" work for us.

We dont know that measure, so, with this kind of doubts, the only way is to stick to one "margin mode" to be sure that the long term will work for us, as long as you are a good move predictor.
  • #72
  • Jul 3, 2007 11:08pm Jul 3, 2007 11:08pm
Quoting Warper
At least you tried to understand. I will try to not bother anyone more with this, but...



It matters the R:R in the case you presented.

But the big problem here is the fact that at least for the time being, we dont have a Winner O' Meter, to know in advance the exact probability of winning in the next trade. If that kind of measure was avaiable you sure would be right, because we would be able to ajust with precision the progression/increase in the position size, to make that "progression vs long term probability" work for us.

We dont know that measure, so, with this kind of doubts the only way, is to stick to one "margin mode" to be sure that the long term will work for us, as long as you are a good move predictor.
Minnow Trap! Minnow Trap!
Find your way out now and, I suspect you will require a guide.

%W vs %L is not the single measure of a system.
  • #73
  • Jul 3, 2007 11:14pm Jul 3, 2007 11:14pm
My answers in bold beneath then I'll bow out of here.



Best,
Mike


Quoting Warper
At least you tried to understand. I will try to not bother anyone more with this, but...
Okie dokie.


It matters the R:R in the case you presented.

Not necessarily. If you lose 8/10 times and all your losers are 10 pts but your 2 winners are 200+ pts each. Was r:r, the deciding factor? When I place a trade I don't know what my R:R is, I have no fixed target. But I ride profits, and cut losers. So my winning % may suck, but my bottom line doesn't. Of course after enough data you can get an overall AVG R:R. But even still my point about everything is getting overlooked. It isn't the single piece that matters, it is all these pieces.

  • #74
  • Jul 3, 2007 11:15pm Jul 3, 2007 11:15pm
Quoting merlin
whoever this "guru" is, you should probably listen to him, because he is showing quite a bit of wisdom with these statments. one way i can quickly determine a trader's experience is by looking at their expectations. novice traders tend to have unrealistic expectations, while the vets, who have been through the war, have a realistic outlook on trading profits. another telltale sign of a novice...they shoot for X% per day/month/week. thats just not how trading works, its not that steady. shooting for a quarterly % goal is ambitious enough!

there is nothing wrong with lofty goals, trading success in itself is a lofty goal. but it helps to have a realistic perspective on the game.
Thanks Merlin - Now about my invite into the Members only area of the forum.



The keyboards will be burning up around FF land now.

"That idiot". "He's a 10%'er". "And another thing, ditch that members only idea". LOL.

+ + +

No "Guru" though not even with a small g.
  • #75
  • Edited 11:32pm Jul 3, 2007 11:21pm | Edited 11:32pm
this is becoming a very complex discussion.

Mbqb11 has simply put it that pips dont matter since our trades usually hold differing stop levels (based on chart formations) while will utimately decide on the size of our position depending on the percentage risk involved.

I dont see why we have to debate his point, coz mathematically he is correct, assuming everyone positions their trades like the way he described.

Quoting merlin
however, pips and % are two totally different animals. pips are fairly insignificant, position size makes them irrelevent.
you've said it all! end of story
  • #76
  • Jul 3, 2007 11:40pm Jul 3, 2007 11:40pm
ok time to close thread. But I leave some things for you guys to keep in mind

1. Never limit yourself. The sky is NOT the limit and 10% is not a limit neither
2. Your system might fail, your MM might fail, we are all playing a game with no guarantee to win
3. everyday we learn something new about forex, and personally that's why i love Forex factory and post and read here so much....cuz i never stop learning and i share what i learn.
4. I love every single post and poster on this forum and i apologize if i flamed anyone since membership
100% of traders are losers. Just that some win more than they lose!
  • #77
  • Jul 3, 2007 11:43pm Jul 3, 2007 11:43pm
The point is this: If you are playing at 100 USD a pip, on a huge account, then 10% means a lot more that my mini account does.

The point the original poster needs to get to what HIS goals are.

I know that a lot of the big boys also play futures, stocks, and metals, etc. not all of there money is in forex anyways.

And if you add up 10% a month, for sake of argument, it's a lot. Period. If you make for example - 5 pips on a 500 dollar account every day....it turns into something ridiculous like 150k in 18 months? I don't know, download Felica's (lever 70) trading rules....she did the math, not me! lol

But if you start with 1 million USD, and gain 10% a month, it's enough to live on. But this thread I believe shows the unrealistic expectations of so many of us out here. (An idea I JUST FINALLY got into my head.)

For example, I have a mini account that only has 200 USD in it. If I gain 10% this month, who cares? Not me....I now have 220 in that account, it's not going to change my life. At all. It shows good MM and trading, but at the end of the day - I am still poor.

Now on my larger account, 10% means more. But it's still not enough to live off of.

So my answer? Just keep making money in the account, go to work, inflate account if need be, and keep making money in account. The guys who take a 1000 dollar account and turn it into 25,000 dollars DO exist, but they are rare, and are very likely to blow that same account later. They take too many risks.

Its about being smart. And self-control. I have learned that most trades that end up in losses have more to do with me not being patient.

Good luck all, I DO mean that.
  • #78
  • Jul 3, 2007 11:48pm Jul 3, 2007 11:48pm
Quoting clockwork71
The point is this: If you are playing at 100 USD a pip, on a huge account, then 10% means a lot more that my mini account does.

The point the original poster needs to get to what HIS goals are.

I know that a lot of the big boys also play futures, stocks, and metals, etc. not all of there money is in forex anyways.

And if you add up 10% a month, for sake of argument, it's a lot. Period. If you make for example - 5 pips on a 500 dollar account every day....it turns into something ridiculous like 150k in 18 months? I don't know, download Felica's (lever 70) trading rules....she did the math, not me! lol

But if you start with 1 million USD, and gain 10% a month, it's enough to live on. But this thread I believe shows the unrealistic expectations of so many of us out here. (An idea I JUST FINALLY got into my head.)

For example, I have a mini account that only has 200 USD in it. If I gain 10% this month, who cares? Not me....I now have 220 in that account, it's not going to change my life. At all. It shows good MM and trading, but at the end of the day - I am still poor.

Now on my larger account, 10% means more. But it's still not enough to live off of.

So my answer? Just keep making money in the account, go to work, inflate account if need be, and keep making money in account. The guys who take a 1000 dollar account and turn it into 25,000 dollars DO exist, but they are rare, and are very likely to blow that same account later. They take too many risks.

Its about being smart. And self-control. I have learned that most trades that end up in losses have more to do with me not being patient.

Good luck all, I DO mean that.
I second this post, i even have a friend like the guy he mentioned and right now i'm scared he is gonna blow his new account of $100K.
He thinks he is always right, i cant tell him he is wrong (he shorted the pound for no reason @ all) why??, he turned 16K to 65K in less than 3 months and thinks he can do it again

and by the way, he trades other people money
100% of traders are losers. Just that some win more than they lose!
  • #79
  • Jul 3, 2007 11:49pm Jul 3, 2007 11:49pm
Quoting clockwork71
...

Its about being smart. And self-control. I have learned that most trades that end up in losses have more to do with me not being patient.

Good luck all, I DO mean that.
Welcom to the machine....
Although, I would like a Definition of Patience.
  • #80
  • Jul 4, 2007 12:27am Jul 4, 2007 12:27am
Am i allowed to go to sleep? LoL

For the last time!! I'm not talking about % , Ratios , SL , TP. Winners Losers, Lots, Mini accounts. Mega accounts. Leverage. Whatever.

I only said that (Despite Mathematical Possibility jest1081)

Negative Pips = Bad Market Move Analysis (fact) = Unstable Outcome (next trade)

This is my simple and humble view.

The word "Unstable" combined with "margin variation" equals "messing with luck"!

Mathematical Possibility is not equal to obligation to work.

1 / 1 Zillion Probability can happen but we may find that in the history of the universe, one thing like that might never happened before and might not happen for the eternity. Example?

At some date, some hour some second, you will look to a certain star in the sky while you eat a donut and then a meteorite hits you. IT CAN HAPPEN but it will not happen.

clockwork71 thanks for the luck. But when you think that 10 percent its huge (and i know it is) remember that we Do Not trade our money. We trade 10 thousand dollar lots which are many times bigger than the money that you really have. So... if you have X and you Invest 10X or more, you will have 10 times the profit you would have if you only "played" with X. Forget the "i have to trade good" part.

Its inherent to this discussion, to be a good analyst/strategist. So if you are good, and you play with tenths of times of what you have, and remember, 3 Trillion Dollars per day on forex as you know, and only 95% of the ppl takes it. So do the math.


Mr demark I had great results too(not that ones) but a big percentage anyway, and even so, and without any reason to do it so far, i am lowering my expectations anyway. So i might be wrong but thats why its almost Surreal that i see ppl with expectations far lower than my lower expectations, and i didnt even had the lower my own in the first place.

I'm out for today. Bye!
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