How soon after you put on a trade do you expect to be "in the money"? | Forex Factory

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How soon after you put on a trade do you expect to be "in the money"?

  • #1
  • First Post: Jul 2, 2007 9:28am Jul 2, 2007 9:28am
Just curious to hear each one's views on this ... Cheers!

P.S I ask this because as we all understand, the shorter the timeframe we're trading on, the greater the effects of noise/randomness.
  • #2
  • Jul 2, 2007 9:33am Jul 2, 2007 9:33am
Very quickly. Either price shows momentum in my direction or I exit ASAP.
  • #3
  • Jul 2, 2007 9:41am Jul 2, 2007 9:41am
Quoting WTB
Very quickly. Either price shows momentum in my direction or I exit ASAP.
Do you never give room for you trade to play out?
  • #4
  • Jul 2, 2007 9:44am Jul 2, 2007 9:44am
Quoting Digitaldean
Do you never give room for you trade to play out?
I have waited many moons/days for some positions. Sometimes it's like a good feed. The longer and more tenderly prepared the better the eating it when it's ready.

Other times I have a reversal of opinion and close them even in triple digit losses.
  • #5
  • Jul 2, 2007 9:47am Jul 2, 2007 9:47am
Interesting, I always set my stop and think of it as the cost to see if my trade is profitable, I dont touch it untill ether i am in profit or my SL is hit.

May be I am wrong about this?
  • #6
  • Jul 2, 2007 10:38am Jul 2, 2007 10:38am
Quoting Digitaldean
Do you never give room for you trade to play out?
In my opinion, if a particular trade takes too long to kick off then I miss-timed my entry. In those cases, I'd rather exit, re-asses the situation and wait for price to breakout once again.

Why would I be positioned in a stagnant market? just because I believe it *might* eventually take off in my direction? nop, either the momentum is there or I simply dont want to be positioned at all.
  • #7
  • Jul 2, 2007 12:37pm Jul 2, 2007 12:37pm
Usually it takes 3-5 bars for an entry signal to flat-line if the market suddenly goes sideways. Of course if it goes against you, an exit signal, entry in other direction, or SL hit will probably occur.

I'd say if nothing happens 2-3 bars after you entered, you should get out by dumping your position with a market order... don't even hassle with adjusting SLs or TPs, as there is no guarantee either one will be hit. It is best to measure a timing exit by the number of bars as this factor will not change if you change the timeframe of the chart.
  • #8
  • Jul 2, 2007 12:50pm Jul 2, 2007 12:50pm
Quoting FXCaesar
Just curious to hear each one's views on this ... Cheers!
doesn't this depend on your timeframe? if you're trading on 5m you won't wait as long as you wait on the w1 chart...
"Abandon all hope, you who enter here" La Divina Commedia, Dante Alighieri
  • #9
  • Jul 2, 2007 12:53pm Jul 2, 2007 12:53pm
Quoting semar
doesn't this depend on your timeframe? if you're trading on 5m you won't wait as long as you wait on the w1 chart...
Bingo.
IMO, it's dependant on the t/f.
If it's a 1H trade, then it should move in your direction soon. If it's a trade off the monthly charts, it could take a while.

Tom
  • #10
  • Jul 2, 2007 5:14pm Jul 2, 2007 5:14pm
100% correct!!!

Regardless of the timeframe, the market does what it does with no 'expectation' - all we can do is aim for the higher probabilities and let the market move. Playing the lower timeframe charts is akin to shooting craps - there is a hell of a lot of random noise that most people do not take account for when deciding upon their stoplosses. Can it be profitable?? Apparently - but I doubt many here are doing it consistently...

D.

Quoting semar
doesn't this depend on your timeframe? if you're trading on 5m you won't wait as long as you wait on the w1 chart...
  • #11
  • Jul 2, 2007 6:46pm Jul 2, 2007 6:46pm
Quoting WTB
In my opinion, if a particular trade takes too long to kick off then I miss-timed my entry. In those cases, I'd rather exit, re-asses the situation and wait for price to breakout once again.

Why would I be positioned in a stagnant market? just because I believe it *might* eventually take off in my direction? nop, either the momentum is there or I simply dont want to be positioned at all.
About my sentiment as well. If it hasn't done what I expect within a few hours I feel my capitol is better off in something that will perform more to what I anticipated. I might miss out on some pips that way but it also keeps me out of enough bad trades to make it worth while.
  • #12
  • Jul 2, 2007 6:49pm Jul 2, 2007 6:49pm
Quoting WTB
In my opinion, if a particular trade takes too long to kick off then I miss-timed my entry. In those cases, I'd rather exit, re-asses the situation and wait for price to breakout once again.

Why would I be positioned in a stagnant market? just because I believe it *might* eventually take off in my direction? nop, either the momentum is there or I simply dont want to be positioned at all.
DING DING DING we have a winner. Spot on.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #13
  • Jul 2, 2007 7:00pm Jul 2, 2007 7:00pm
sometimes few seconds, sometimes few days, if still not in profit, i'll wait for month
  • #14
  • Edited 7:25pm Jul 2, 2007 7:14pm | Edited 7:25pm
Quoting WTB

Why would I be positioned in a stagnant market? just because I believe it *might* eventually take off in my direction? nop, either the momentum is there or I simply dont want to be positioned at all.

Because some trades aren't momentum but reversal trades and the market needs to absorb the OLD momentum first before it fully stalls and reverses and this can take time.

Timeframe dependent and can take a bit sometimes. Some folks (he knows I mean him hehehe) prefer the very next bar to at least "trigger" the setup else cancel their orders for entry.


Very different from trader to trader and system(i.e. the where and why of your entry obviously matters) and discretionary imho.

As always if one tries to outguess the market and manually intervenes instead of letting stops and orders (=market) decide it usually ends up in biting yourself in the hand just a bit later when things do pan out as planned
At least that's my experience with it

Usually your PL tells you if you're right and your stop confirms you're wrong. The Nr 1 rule of the Phantom of the Pits is: You're wrong until proven right, not the other way around.
An interesting option to look at trade entries imho and one of the more honest ways of looking at forex (you start ANY trade in the red thanks to spread/comission = odds against you, always).
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #15
  • Jul 2, 2007 7:59pm Jul 2, 2007 7:59pm
Quoting WTB
Very quickly. Either price shows momentum in my direction or I exit ASAP.
This is suprising coming from you. Don't you trade off of 4hr charts and daily charts? Or do you just look for setups with these charts and then enter (in direction of 4hr or daily chart) on breakouts only? I will appreciate feedback, it may give me a new perspective on how I approach making my entries. Using smaller timeframes or breakouts on larger time frame charts?

Thanks

In regards to the original question, I just hope I see profit before I get a signal to get out
The market is my nation. Traders, my family. Hello, brothers and sisters!
  • #16
  • Jul 3, 2007 6:58am Jul 3, 2007 6:58am
Quoting Daemien
100% correct!!!

Playing the lower timeframe charts is akin to shooting craps - there is a hell of a lot of random noise that most people do not take account for when deciding upon their stoplosses. Can it be profitable?? Apparently - but I doubt many here are doing it consistently...

D.
I always hate to disagree with people, but in this case, I must.
Those who think trading a 5 minute chart is like shooting craps, simply doesn't know HOW to trade a 5 minute chart.
Personally, I love trading a 5 minute chart and do so every day.
Once you've learned a scalping technique that works, trading a 5 minute chart can actually become one of the most accurate ways to trade.
In the time that you are waiting for one long term trade to BECOME profitable, I've opened and closed numerous profitable SHORT TERM trades.
There is no wrong or right........its all in what you are comfortable with. It just irritates me to no end, however, when people assume that something is impossible, just because they haven't yet found a way to make it work.
In this market, you MUST keep an open mind to learning new strategies to expand upon what you already know. The moment you think you know everything is the moment you stop learning.........and why do that?
This is an ever changing market, with many opportunities, so why close yourself off to half of them?
Short term trading actually requires less accuracy. There is more room for error and is more forgiving than a long term trade gone bad!!!!!
This market is all about our perception and what we see when we look at the chart. Two people could look at the same chart, but see completely different trading opportunities.
Hope this gives you something different to consider.........
  • #17
  • Jul 3, 2007 7:58am Jul 3, 2007 7:58am
It really depends on the volatility of the market around the trend; I think the longest I've held on would be perhaps 2-3 weeks before it became profitable. But the big thing is that it wasn't unexpected; if you go in thinking it should be profitable ins such-and-such a time, and it isn't, then it's time to re-think. Either your model was wrong to start with, or the mkt has changed....
  • #18
  • Jul 3, 2007 1:21pm Jul 3, 2007 1:21pm
I wait until my S/L is hit. When I set a S/L it's meants to be a point where I figure that I am wrong in my bias. It's a risk amount that I have determined prior to entering a trade.
It may take a while for it to move to profit or hitting the S/L but I never close it prematurely because that's like picking the exact entries and that to me is not the most important thing
  • #19
  • Jul 3, 2007 11:13pm Jul 3, 2007 11:13pm
Quoting DutchTrader
DING DING DING we have a winner. Spot on.
Shouldn't that shoe in the picture be made of wood?
  • #20
  • Jul 4, 2007 6:25am Jul 4, 2007 6:25am
Quoting FXCaesar
Just curious to hear each one's views on this ... Cheers!

P.S I ask this because as we all understand, the shorter the timeframe we're trading on, the greater the effects of noise/randomness.
I am extremely new to this however I do try to swing trade and I found that I was exiting a trade way to soon, at the first sign of my trade reversing I exit, but now I try to stay in 6 to 10 hours. I notice most trades almost always reverse a bit but then come back.
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