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An idea to always win?

  • #1
  • First Post: Mar 22, 2007 6:15pm Mar 22, 2007 6:15pm
If I plotted the pivot sup/res numbers on a chart...then waited for price to hit let's say resistance...then sold 1 mini lot with a take profit of 20 pips...but then if price went against me I would sell 2 mini lots 20 pips higher also with a 20 pip take profit(which would also close out my other trade)...I would keep selling double the amount of mini lots every 20 pips higher all with a 20 pip take profit and closing out the remaining trades...

I figure that even in the strongest trending markets that price would at some time have to retrace at least 20 pips...

Please, I welcome all opinions, criticisms, improvements, etc.
  • #2
  • Mar 22, 2007 6:23pm Mar 22, 2007 6:23pm
There has been a lot of talk about this kind of strategy (some kind of martigale type), and i can tell u that it will work and u will make money but sooner or later u will get hurt badly or u will blow the account.. and when u are adding let say for the 9th or 10th time (or more if u are in a big move againts u) u will need big balls and big pockets....


Just my opinion..

Wish u the best mate
Matty
  • #3
  • Mar 22, 2007 6:30pm Mar 22, 2007 6:30pm
Quoting Matiasfx
There has been a lot of talk about this kind of strategy (some kind of martigale type), and i can tell u that it will work and u will make money but sooner or later u will get hurt badly or u will blow the account.. and when u are adding let say for the 9th or 10th time (or more if u are in a big move againts u) u will need big balls and big pockets....


Just my opinion..

Wish u the best mate
Matty
But even in a big move against you, wouldn't there be at least a 20 pip retracement?

PS. my balls and bank account are not big enough to try this but I thought it an idea worthy of discussion and maybe someone has some statistics on exactly how this might work...I am not talking about entering randomly...The initial position would be at a point where one might expect a reversal..
  • #4
  • Mar 22, 2007 6:37pm Mar 22, 2007 6:37pm
I'm not hatin' on this type of thing, but you know what they say:

"It works everytime but once"

andersenws
"Youth is the trustee of prosperity." - Benjamin Disraeli
  • #5
  • Mar 22, 2007 6:40pm Mar 22, 2007 6:40pm
Quoting RickW00716
If I plotted the pivot sup/res numbers on a chart...then waited for price to hit let's say resistance...then sold 1 mini lot with a take profit of 20 pips...but then if price went against me I would sell 2 mini lots 20 pips higher also with a 20 pip take profit(which would also close out my other trade)...I would keep selling double the amount of mini lots every 20 pips higher all with a 20 pip take profit and closing out the remaining trades...

I figure that even in the strongest trending markets that price would at some time have to retrace at least 20 pips...

Please, I welcome all opinions, criticisms, improvements, etc.
There is a lot that is wrong with this type of strategy. All i can say is open a chart up and start testing. By the way if you expect to ever make it in trading you might want to stop asking "What if" type questions and do some research instead. And another thing: get rid of trying to "always win" that will just lead to loosing.
Just some advice, take it any way you want!
Stubbornly persistent
  • #6
  • Mar 22, 2007 6:58pm Mar 22, 2007 6:58pm
A friend I know tried this. He only lost $5,000 or so and then gave up.

Some say "The sky is the limit". I say "I own the sky".
  • #7
  • Mar 22, 2007 7:49pm Mar 22, 2007 7:49pm
I don't think i could ever really trade this way...I just thought it might be an interesting topic.
  • #8
  • Mar 22, 2007 8:05pm Mar 22, 2007 8:05pm
Quoting RickW00716
If I plotted the pivot sup/res numbers on a chart...then waited for price to hit let's say resistance...then sold 1 mini lot with a take profit of 20 pips...but then if price went against me I would sell 2 mini lots 20 pips higher also with a 20 pip take profit(which would also close out my other trade)...I would keep selling double the amount of mini lots every 20 pips higher all with a 20 pip take profit and closing out the remaining trades...

I figure that even in the strongest trending markets that price would at some time have to retrace at least 20 pips...

Please, I welcome all opinions, criticisms, improvements, etc.
Your system won't work for two simple reasons:

1:You are constantly fighting the trend so right there you have a problem. The trend now becomes your worst enemy.

2: You are trying to get an edge with a martingale. This is of course an utopia, only your system gives you the edge. You cannot get any edge with any martingale so stay away from those "bet-more-as-you-lose" sucker bets.
  • #9
  • Mar 22, 2007 8:07pm Mar 22, 2007 8:07pm
Quoting RickW00716
If I plotted the pivot sup/res numbers on a chart...then waited for price to hit let's say resistance...then sold 1 mini lot with a take profit of 20 pips...but then if price went against me I would sell 2 mini lots 20 pips higher also with a 20 pip take profit(which would also close out my other trade)...I would keep selling double the amount of mini lots every 20 pips higher all with a 20 pip take profit and closing out the remaining trades...

I figure that even in the strongest trending markets that price would at some time have to retrace at least 20 pips...

Please, I welcome all opinions, criticisms, improvements, etc.
That's the biggest problem, how to identify a strong/weak trending market.
  • #10
  • Mar 22, 2007 8:12pm Mar 22, 2007 8:12pm
Quoting luqmanz
That's the biggest problem, how to identify a strong/weak trending market.
With the usual TA tools: moving averages, DMI and ADX.
  • #11
  • Edited 8:36pm Mar 22, 2007 8:26pm | Edited 8:36pm
It will work fine in a ranging market, but be prepared to give away all your profits and probably blow up the account if you get a strong trend, like the one that started nov 24, 2006, the thanksgiving morning ...., pound and euro broke higher with a very strong trend ....., go ahead and do the backtest in that day to see what could happen ....
  • #12
  • Mar 23, 2007 5:07am Mar 23, 2007 5:07am
Why don't you stay away after 2-3 losses, try it again next day. You might have a clearer picture after a day or two...
  • #13
  • Mar 23, 2007 11:35am Mar 23, 2007 11:35am
Why wouldnt you just follow the price up? Rather than time and again trying to time or predict what the market should do? I am not being sarcastic ... just curious?
The market is my nation. Traders, my family. Hello, brothers and sisters!
  • #14
  • Mar 23, 2007 12:18pm Mar 23, 2007 12:18pm
Instead of looking at a 100% win system, I would recommend trying to limit your losses to as little as possible. Focussing too much on winning might have several disadvantages.

1. If you do win, you might be congratulated by the market for promoting bad habits. (ie. the trade profits but was set up poorly).

2. the market has a way of showing us exactly what we want to see and if we focus on just winning all the time, it will show us that the trade will win, even though it has a very little chance of winning.

What i recommend is trying to find a system that works for you via testing, testing and more testing and concentrate on the setups of the trade. Losing is a part of trading. the quicker you understand this, the better off you are when going into a trade and learning how to deal with losses. Around here a very well known trader says to try and find reasons NOT to trade. When you seriously cannot find reasons not to take a trade..then its time to trade.

If you concentrate on your technique...the money will come after.

hope this helps.
  • #15
  • Mar 24, 2007 7:23am Mar 24, 2007 7:23am
Don't try to find perfection. Perfection doesn't exist.
  • #16
  • Mar 24, 2007 6:32pm Mar 24, 2007 6:32pm
There are about 20 or 30 people testing this idea at this thread:

http://www.forex-tsd.com/expert-advi...r-edition.html

The original idea was called 10 points 3, and many people are coming up with hybrids based on this idea.

Good luck.
  • #17
  • Jul 2, 2007 3:50pm Jul 2, 2007 3:50pm
Quoting RickW00716
If I plotted the pivot sup/res numbers on a chart...then waited for price to hit let's say resistance...then sold 1 mini lot with a take profit of 20 pips...but then if price went against me I would sell 2 mini lots 20 pips higher also with a 20 pip take profit(which would also close out my other trade)...I would keep selling double the amount of mini lots every 20 pips higher all with a 20 pip take profit and closing out the remaining trades...

I figure that even in the strongest trending markets that price would at some time have to retrace at least 20 pips...

Please, I welcome all opinions, criticisms, improvements, etc.
Maybe i dont understand this stratgie but it sounds like ur trading against the trend and doubling up every 20pips? if that is the case then u are certainly heading for disaster.

I wud rather do the smart thing and follow the trend. That way you are sure to make money.

hey but whatever works for you....
  • #18
  • Jul 3, 2007 4:32am Jul 3, 2007 4:32am
Quoting RickW00716
Please, I welcome all opinions, criticisms, improvements, etc.
RickW00716 -

I believe you were getting at a variation of a Martingale/Grid-Trading technique. Hopefully, you appreciate the answers you got. They were good advice.

So I'd consider this a "been there, done that" type of situation. It's a dead-end - leave it completely alone - and move onto some techniques that have withstood the test of time, instead of failed the test of time - every time.
  • #19
  • Jul 3, 2007 5:09am Jul 3, 2007 5:09am
If you have an account with 1 million $ then you can eventually win with this strategy.

But unfortunately, not so many ppl here have 1 million to play with :-/
  • #20
  • Jul 3, 2007 5:20am Jul 3, 2007 5:20am
this is a deviation of martingale theory

According to wiki "Since a gambler with infinite wealth will with probability 1 eventually flip heads, the Martingale betting strategy was seen as a sure thing by those who practiced it."

do you have an infinite account? Theory is one thing, practice is another...
"Abandon all hope, you who enter here" La Divina Commedia, Dante Alighieri
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