Money Flow Trading Method along with Risk Management

I mean they are required by law to have a certain risk management. Gold is at play only when it becomes a real collateral.
Post something about CBDC’s the clock is ticking, is it west copying China or it is all planned together globally?
Old coins will be used as payment methods?

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitic...e-them-ukraine

REPO Act Passage Has Authorized Biden To Confiscate Russian Assets & Transfer To Ukraine

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BY TYLER DURDEN

MONDAY, APR 22, 2024 - 10:25 AM
When the House voted to pass Biden's long sought-after foreign aid package Saturday, which will deliver over $60 billion to Ukraine, included in this was the passage of the REPO Act, which paves the way for the Biden administration to confiscate billions in Russian sovereign assets which sit in US banks.

The US administration has been pursuing a controversial plan to transfer frozen Russian assets to Ukraine for reconstruction, and has been aggressively lobbying G7 countries to jump on board, also given most of the $300 billion in Russian assets are held in Europe - particularly France, Germany, and Belgium.
A summary of the REPO Act - H.R.4175 - on the Congressional website, reads: "This bill requires or authorizes various actions related to the confiscation and disposition of Russian sovereign assets (which include funds and other property of Russia's central bank, direct investment fund, or ministry of finance)."

Blinken: China Is Helping Russia in War Against Ukraine

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Image: EPA/Shutterstock

"Under the bill, the President must require U.S. financial institutions to notify the Department of the Treasury of any Russian sovereign assets located at such institutions. The President may confiscate any such assets subject to U.S. jurisdiction," it continues. "Confiscated funds and the proceeds of liquidated property must be deposited into the Ukraine Support Fund established by the bill."

The now-approved bill further specifies:
The Ukraine Support Fund shall be used by the Department of State to compensate Ukraine for damages caused by the Russian invasion. The Ukraine Support Fund may also support an international body or mechanism for (1) reconstruction and rebuilding efforts in Ukraine, (2) humanitarian assistance to the Ukrainian people, or (3) other purposes that support the recovery of Ukraine and the welfare of the Ukrainian people.

Importantly, it seeks to bring in international partners to establish a mechanism that would tap Russian assets in Europe. "The bill also directs the President to seek to establish, with foreign partners, an international mechanism to provide compensation to Ukraine using the Ukraine Support Fund and Russian sovereign assets confiscated by foreign partners," the legislation summary says.

But some EU leaders have expressed anxiety over the plan and have thus far resisted, mainly on concerns that it would undermine global trust and confidence in Western banks. Moscow could also see what it deems theft of its sovereign funds as essentially an act of war.

On Monday, the Kremlin reacted to the weekend passage of the REPO Act, vowing to fight and inflict corresponding punishment on the US and West. Putin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters:
"We are very skeptical about this because this is essentially the destruction of all the foundations of the economic system. This is an encroachment on state property, on state assets, and private property. By no means should this be perceived as legal action - it is illegal. And accordingly, it will be subject to retaliatory actions and legal proceedings," the Kremlin official said.

"If such measures are implemented, of course, many investors will think ten times before making any investments in the American economy or storing their assets there," Peskov added, noting there's still a long, complex road ahead if Washington ultimately seeks to pull the trigger on stealing Russia's assets. "This is a very dangerous precedent," Peskov underscored.

Below: is an interesting take from Sen. J.D. Vance...
Senator @JDVance1: “I have heard people in private in the United States Senate say that if the REPO Act passes, it will be used to control Donald Trump in the second administration. These people are telling us what they want to do. They’re going to do it unless we stop them.”

— Senator Vance Press Office (@SenVancePress) April 16, 2024
Starting in February, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen began getting more vocal on the moral case" for using Russian assets to aid Ukraine, telling allies they must find a way to "unlock the value" of the hundreds of billions in immobilized Russian assets, also with an eye towards Ukraine's post-war reconstruction.

Previously some Ukrainian officials floated the idea of "reparation bonds" backed by future claims for war damages against Moscow, and utilizing frozen Russian assets. These initiatives have gained steam under US leadership.

https://www.openthebooks.com/assets/...g_FINAL_31.pdf

On The Brink Of A Dramatic Change: The Digitalization Of Money | ZeroHedge

On The Brink Of A Dramatic Change: The Digitalization Of Money
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BY TYLER DURDEN

THURSDAY, MAR 28, 2024 - 08:25 PM

Authored by Efrat Fenigson via Bitcoin Magazine,

The current state of Central Bank Digital Currency Projects globally is summarized by Efrat Enigson, independent journalist and host of the "You're The Voice" podcast...
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=hW_zrp5R

“What underpins a world order is always the financial system.
We are on the brink of a dramatic change where we are about to, and I'll say this boldly, abandon the traditional system of money and accounting and introduce a new one. And the new one is what we call blockchain.

It means digital. It means having an almost perfect record of every single transaction that happens in the economy, which will give us far greater clarity over what's going on. It also raises huge dangers in terms of the balance of power between states and citizens. In my opinion, we're going to need a digital constitution of human rights if we're going to have digital money.

Most people think that digital money is crypto and private, but what I see are superpowers introducing digital currency. The Chinese were the first. The US is on the brink of moving in the same direction. The Europeans have committed to that as well.”

This revolutionary speech about a new financial system was delivered at the World Government Summit in March 2022 in Dubai, by Philippa "Pippa" Malmgren, a member of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) and Chatham House; her father, Harald Malmgren served as a senior advisor to US Presidents Kennedy, Nixon, Ford, and others. She’s a technology entrepreneur and economist, who served as Special Assistant to President George W. Bush, for Economic Policy on the National Economic Council and is a former member of the President's Working Group on Financial Markets and Corporate Governance.

Her words about the transition to a new world order that requires a new financial structure correspond well with the words of French President Emmanuel Macron in June 2023 at the Global Finance Summit in Paris: "The world needs a public financial shock to fight global warming, and the current system is not suitable for dealing with the world's challenges." The president of Brazil, Lula da Silva, also called for "a clean slate" and said the Bretton Woods organizations (World Bank, International Monetary Fund) do not serve their goals nor respond to society's needs.
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The Summit for a New Global Financing Pact. Photo: Ricardo Stuckert/PR

“THE NEW BRETTON WOODS MOMENT”
“A new international monetary system is taking shape, some call it the new Bretton Woods moment that needs to be seized to create a new global financial governance,” says the investigative journalist Whitney Webb in a recent sit-down interview, where she mentions that according to Mark Carney, former governor of the Bank of England & Bank of Canada and the UN Special Envoy for Climate Action and Finance, the three pillars of the new multi-polar world are Digital IDs, CBDCs, and ESG, through a global carbon market. All world governments are pushing this agenda, that for it to succeed, all monetary systems and supporting systems must become digital and rely on digital data.

A good example of this was revealed at an event of the Central Bank of Israel with the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) – which I attended – in September 2023 in Tel Aviv, where the “Genesis Project” was presented. As part of this project, "green" bonds are issued, based on carbon quotas in the CBDC infrastructure. This is how the climate agenda is linked to financial markets.

“DEBT SERFDOM”
“Stablecoins could be how the US is further globalizing the dollar, spreading its adoption directly to the world’s general public to continue increasing its debt and encourage uptake and usage of the dollar”, says Mark Goodwin, Editor in Chief of Bitcoin Magazine, in this interview with Whitney Webb. He suggests that the politician’s outcry of de-dollarization and the weakening of the dollar are a distraction from perpetuating the dollar as the world’s reserve currency.

“While CBDCs are what people are becoming fearful and aware of, it may just be the red herring, and the real strategy of the US dollar's survival is highly regulated Stablecoins (such as Tether), which can easily be programmable, even more than CBDCs, as well as seized, regulated and controlled indirectly by governments. 100 billion dollars in treasuries were already purchased by Tether, its subsidiaries, and its owners. Tether is positioned alongside the top 20 nation-states buying debt from the US, with around one-tenth of China or Japan that have a trillion dollars debt to the US”.
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Whitney Webb & Mark Goodwin. Source:
Inserted Video


https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/...antages-risks/

This article is part of the Centre for Financial and Monetary Systems

Listen to the article
12 min listen

1. Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) are a kind of digital money issued by a central bank but are not cryptocurrency and would not replace cash.
2. CBDCs offer potential benefits for financial inclusion, but some concerns need to be considered, as the World Economic Forum’s Digital Currency Governance Consortium White Paper Series points out.
3. Governments and central banks need to be transparent and honest about the potential advantages and risks of digital currencies to build public trust in CBDCs.

Money has taken many forms over the centuries. In fact, it’s not even always been money at all. It gradually evolved from bartered commodities to pieces of metal, before becoming paper money and eventually debit and credit cards. The next step in this evolution could be central bank digital currencies (CBDCs).
CBDCs are already in use today. A total of 11 countries have launched one, and another 21 have pilot programs, according to the Atlantic Council’s CBDC Tracker. A further 79 are developing or researching a digital currency.
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Rising numbers of countries are considering using CBDCs.Image: World Economic Forum
Well, over 90% of the money in circulation today is already digital, according to Harvard Business Review (HBR), with rapid declines in the use of cash having accelerated because of the pandemic.

But just because more payments are happening digitally, does that mean we need central banks to adopt digital currencies?

What are CBDCs?
A CBDC is a digital money issued by a central bank. It would not replace cash but complement it. “In a CBDC world, the digital code for each virtual currency unit will be held in a digital wallet and transferred seamlessly by the wallet-holder to other people’s digital wallets,” HBR says.
A CBDC would differ from cryptocurrency as it would be issued by a central bank, rather than a private coin like Bitcoin. This means the currency would be backed by the issuing government, ensuring its value would be stable, unlike with crypto assets where large swings in value can happen for several reasons.

Why do countries want to issue CBDCs?
There are several expected benefits that countries could unlock by modernizing existing financial systems and introducing CBDCs:
CBDCs can cut transaction costs and times
When migrants send money back to people in their home country, they face an average charge on the transaction of 6.25%, the World Bank says. This is hacking away at the remittances that provide critical support for developing economies.

CBDCs could reduce the costs of these cross-border transactions by removing the need for money transfer operators, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) says.
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CBDCs could make cross-border transactions easier and cheaper. Image: World Economic Forum
CBDCs could also speed up cross-border transactions. International payments often take one or two days, but some can take five. With CBDCs, digital payments could happen within seconds at any time of day.

There is a counter-argument that systems are already being developed that could enable near-instantaneous international payments, as BIS research points out. That said, current real-time payment methods face interoperability issues because of the patchwork of non-standardized payment systems that have gradually been developed around the world, according to payment provider Swift.

CBDCs can help people access money in emergencies
The Bahamas was the first country to adopt a CBDC. It launched the Sand Dollar in 2020 because it wanted to increase financial inclusion for its citizens, who live across a series of 700 islands, some of which offer limited access to cash machines and banking services.

“We didn’t start with the idea of a central bank digital currency,” says John Rolle, Governor of the Central Bank of the Bahamas. “We focused on eliminating as many obstacles as possible for persons having access to the equivalent of a deposit account or a mobile wallet account to conduct transactions.”

The Sand Dollar came about shortly after the Bahamas suffered its worst-ever natural disaster, Hurricane Dorian. Digital currencies were seen as a way for the government to send immediate financial aid to citizens after such events, when bank branches or cash machines may have been damaged or become inaccessible.
CBDCs could have also helped governments around the world with recent energy bill support payments prompted by soaring gas prices, according to HSBC Global Economist James Pomeroy. Some of these support payments took the form of discounts applied to energy bills, but this risked excluding people who have prepayment meters (which are often used in lower-income areas).

“In a world where every single person … has a CBDC account, what you could do is essentially drop payments into people’s accounts,” Pomeroy told the Poundcast podcast.
CBDCs can boost financial inclusion

Increasing financial inclusion was one reason Nigeria introduced its CBDC, the eNaira, in 2021. Around a third of people in Nigeria do not have bank accounts.
The benefits of financial inclusion include helping eliminate poverty, create jobs, improve gender equality and raise health standards, according to the World Bank.
There have been large drops in poverty in rural India thanks to moves to bring people into the banking system. And better financial access for farmers in Malawi is helping them invest in equipment, which is in turn boosting their yields and their potential crop earnings by over a fifth.

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Mobile phone users outnumber those with a bank account in many countries. Image: Mastercard
Giving people access to financial services is seen as key to achieving the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals. CBDCs could transform financial inclusion as they can be used directly via a mobile phone, potentially benefitting the more than 600 million people around the world who have access to a mobile but not to a bank account.

CBDCs can counter criminal activity

CBDCs would allow for the creation of digital records and traces, and this could make it easier to stop money laundering and flows of money used to finance terrorism, BIS says.

That said, there is the possibility that the added traceability of CBDCs could push these sorts of transactions further away from the formal banking systems and lead to criminals seeking out other ways to circumvent regulations.

The potential traceability of CBDCs also gives rise to one of the biggest objections to digital currencies.

Objections to CBDCs
Privacy is one of the most commonly cited concerns when it comes to CBDCs, as the World Economic Forum’s Digital Currency Governance Consortium White Paper Series points out.
It’s a legitimate concern given the rise of data protection and online privacy issues in our increasingly digital world. However, just as governments around the world have brought in new legislation to tackle these concerns, they will have to introduce rules around CBDCs, such as enforcing the use of privacy-enhancing technology and ensuring consumer protection, the Forum points out.

These kinds of rules will also be required to protect personal data against the inevitable cybersecurity risks of digitizing sensitive financial information.
Banks including the European Central Bank (ECB) are already looking hard at how to embed anonymity in CBDCs. “While the question of whether or not to issue CBDC is still primarily a policy matter, that question cannot be answered without a deep understanding of the various specific design features that a CBDC could have,” the ECB points out.

The US Federal Reserve also says security would be a key consideration before any decision to go ahead with CBDCs. However it points out that many of the underlying technologies that may be used already exist in today’s digital payment systems. CBDCs would also benefit from the additional security benefits of blockchain and cryptography, the Fed says.

DISCOVER
How is the World Economic Forum promoting the responsible use of blockchain?

https://www.nerdwallet.com/ca/person...urrency-canada

PUBLISHED SEPTEMBER 20, 2023

READING TIME

5 MINUTES

Is a Central Bank Digital Currency Coming for Canadians?

The Canadian loonie could be getting a major makeover. Here's what the Bank of Canada's plan for digital currency means for you.
Written By
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Shannon Terrell
Edited By
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Erica Corbin
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A digital form of the Canadian dollar would revolutionize the country’s economic landscape. But would it be for the better? Here’s what to know about the Bank of Canada’s vision for a digital loonie.

What is a central bank digital currency?
A central bank digital currency (CBDC) is a digital currency issued and regulated by a country’s central bank. In Canada, a CBDC would be issued by the Bank of Canada. Like cash, it would be the liability of the Bank.

“In an ideal world, it is truly digital,” says Henry Kim, Professor of Operations Management and Information Systems at the Schulich School of Business, York University located in Toronto. “It acts just like cash. But it’s digital, which means it’s convenient, and it transcends distances.”

CBDC vs. cryptocurrency
You’d be forgiven for categorizing a CBDC as cryptocurrency. Digital money is digital money, right? However there are significant characteristics that separate CBDCs from crypto.

“A central bank digital currency is legal tender,” says Kim. “It is real money. Cryptocurrency, for the most part, is proxy money.”
Cryptocurrency is a private and unregulated digital asset prone to price volatility. As a digital version of cash, CBDCs must be stable and reliable with tangible, real-world value. This can be accomplished through central bank regulation.

“Cryptocurrency, like Bitcoin, is not backed,” says Andreas Park, professor of finance at the University of Toronto. “They’re worth whatever people are willing to pay for them.”

A Canadian CBDC would be regulated by the Bank of Canada, backed by government debt, and tied to the Canadian dollar.
Does Canada need a central bank digital currency?
Canada doesn’t need a CBDC right now. But that could change.

Kim points out that Canada may need to institute a digital dollar to stay competitive in global financial markets.
“If other parts of the world start using CBDCs, then there’s a chance that people will start transacting with something other than Canadian dollars,” says Kim.
U.S. think tank Atlantic Council reports that 130 countries are in various stages of exploring digital versions of their currencies[1].

The European Central Bank is investigating a digital euro, for instance. China’s pilot test of the digital yuan has been underway since 2019.

What’s more, the public’s interest in cash as a payment method is waning. Many Canadians have come to rely on the convenience of credit cards and Interac e-transfers. Transactions can even be made with mobile devices now, like phones and smartwatches.

Automated banking machine transactions in Canada reflect this shift, declining from 880 million in 2008 to 466 million in 2019, according to Payments Canada’s 2020 Canadian Payment Methods and Trends Report[2].

Still, a decline in ATM transactions doesn’t mean the country will do away with cash completely.
“For several reasons, people use cash,” says Park. It performs a unique job in the Canadian financial landscape: It’s free to use, anonymous, stable, and safe.
It’s just that in an increasingly digital world, Canadians need a suitable alternative. That’s where CBDCs come into play.
Where is the Bank of Canada in its decision-making process?

As of this writing, the Bank of Canada has stated that it doesn’t see the immediate need for a digital dollar. But it also says that Canada needs to put measures in place to launch a CBDC if it becomes a necessity in the future[3].

The Bank of Canada maintains that a digital dollar would not replace cash and that it would continue to supply physical money as long as Canadians want to use it.
A CBDC poses privacy and security risks

While a CBDC would help Canada stay globally competitive and adapt to an increasingly cashless world, the technology isn’t risk-free. Experts have already voiced some concerns — chief among them: security.

“This needs to be bulletproof,” says Park. “And nothing in the tech space ever is bulletproof. There will be ways to hack these wallets.”
Money laundering is a related issue, says Kim. “If, at the press of a button, you can launder tens of millions of dollars very easily, that’s a big concern.”
Kim explains that a central bank digital currency could be made more secure if Canadians were required to provide identification to use the currency. However, this brings up another major concern for CBDCs: one of privacy.

“I don’t want a random civil servant to be able to see what I spend my money on,” says Park. “What if this data about my spending is used in a way that harms me as an individual?”
It’s a valid argument. And one that should be addressed as part of the evolving conversation on digital currencies.

To what extent Canadian CBDC transactions would be visible to the Bank of Canada remains to be seen. If Canadians are troubled by the transparency of their personal finance data, Kim suggests they consider the amount of information they share with tech companies to use mobile apps and services.
“There’s no design that allows you to use digital cash purely anonymously,” says Kim. “The amount of privacy we would give up with a CBDC in Canada is not much more than what we already give to Visa or Apple or PayPal.”

The future of a Canadian CBDC
The digital loonie is still far from reality, but its creation seems increasingly inevitable. What’s a concerned Canadian to do? Get involved. Citizens can help shape the future of the country’s CBDC by participating in consultations and contacting public officials to voice any concerns.

WORKS CITED

 

1. Atlantic Council, “Central Bank Digital Currency Tracker,” accessed September 20, 2023.
2. Payments Canada, “Canadian Payment Methods and Trends 2020 Report,” accessed September 20, 2023.
3. Bank of Canada, “Digital Canadian dollar,” accessed September 20, 2023.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

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Shannon Terrell
Shannon Terrell is a lead writer and spokesperson for NerdWallet, where she writes about credit cards and personal finance. Previously, she was a writer, editor and video host for financial…
Read more about Shannon Terrell and explore their articles

https://www.bankofcanada.ca/digitaldollar/

Digital Canadian Dollar

We’re exploring the possibility of issuing a digital form of the Canadian dollar, also known as a central bank digital currency (CBDC). Find out what a Digital Dollar is, why we’re doing this research, how we’re approaching design work, and how we’re listening to Canadians.

You told us what you want and don’t want in a Digital Dollar. Read the report.

What is a Digital Canadian Dollar?
Simply put, a Digital Canadian Dollar would be a digital form of cash in your wallet. Like cash, it could buy the things you need. But the advantage is that you could also use it for online purchases and to transfer money between family and friends. And businesses could use it to pay each other.
This new form of money would be issued by the Bank of Canada and provide benefits similar to cash: it would be safe, accessible to everyone, and private.
However, a Digital Dollar would not replace cash. Our responsibility is to provide Canadians with bank notes they can trust. We’ve done this for almost 90 years, and we’re committed to issuing bank notes for as long as Canadians want them.

For a deep dive into digital currency, have a look at these resources:

1. Understanding money in the 21st century—what money does and how we’re handling it in the digital age
2. The road to digital money—how you might pay for things in the future

Why we’re researching a Digital Dollar
In an era of rapid digitalization, we need to do the necessary work to be ready if Canadians’ payment preferences or needs change. As commerce becomes ever more digital, Canadians should continue to have all the benefits of money issued by the central bank.
Whether and when Canada will need a Digital Dollar is uncertain. Ultimately, Canadians will decide—through their representatives in Parliament—if a Digital Dollar should be issued.

How we’re approaching our work on a Digital Dollar
We want to preserve the features that Canadians value in their banknotes in any future Digital Dollar. And we want to preserve the same payment choices people have now. That is why we are approaching our work on a Digital Dollar with a few concepts in mind:

1. As with bank notes, Canadians shouldn’t need identification, a bank account or to disclose private information to perform basic financial transactions.
2. For those who want the ability to retrieve lost or stolen funds, a Digital Dollar should allow users to voluntarily provide some form of identification, just as we do now when opening a bank account.
3. Canadians have a right to privacy, and any Digital Dollar must not compromise this right. A Digital Dollar should maximize privacy and give Canadians full control over their data.
4. A Digital Dollar should help every Canadian, everywhere, participate in the economy. A Digital Dollar shouldn’t add barriers or reinforce existing ones.
5. A Digital Dollar would complement bank notes, not replace them. We will continue to provide bank notes so people who prefer cash can continue to use it.

How we’re listening to Canadians
We make better decisions when we speak with and listen to the people we serve. As we do the necessary research, we are engaging with Canadians, stakeholders, and advocacy groups across the country to learn about how they use different forms of money—like bank notes issued and backed by the central bank—and how that could evolve in the future.

Read a summary about our engagement on a Digital Canadian Dollar from 2020–23.

Future opportunities
You will have more opportunities to tell us what you think about a Digital Dollar. Going forward, we will continue to engage Canadians and publicly report on our progress. In 2024, we will engage stakeholders on the following topics:

1. privacy
2. accessibility and inclusion
3. security and technology
4. Digital Dollar ecosystem
5. financial stability

Subscribe to our email alert to receive updates on our work on a Digital Canadian Dollar.

Major Banks Debanking Christians

Posted Apr 23, 2024 By Martin Armstrong

SPREAD THE LOVE

 

1. https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...king.png?w=300

Debanking has become a major issue in recent years as institutions feel the current government gives them leeway to discriminate against customers based on their political beliefs. This is happening throughout the Western world. Most recently, fifteen attorneys general sent a letter to Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan about his bank’s “troubling financial pattern” of Debanking Christians. “Bank of America has a track record of de-banking religious organizations,” the letter states,

Guest Post by Martin Armstrong

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Debanking has become a major issue in recent years as institutions feel the current government gives them leeway to discriminate against customers based on their political beliefs. This is happening throughout the Western world. Most recently, fifteen attorneys general sent a letter to Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan about his bank’s “troubling financial pattern” of Debanking Christians. “Bank of America has a track record of de-banking religious organizations,” the letter states,

“We are especially troubled by Bank of America’s track record of discriminating against religious ministries.” Bank of America has been banishing Christians and Christian organizations from accessing their accounts for years without penalty.

Timothy of Two Project International founder Steve Curtis told Fox News about his experience with Bank of America. His organization trains Christian pastors in 65 countries and has banked with BOA since 2011. Curtis said that one day in 2020, his card simply declined “out of the blue.” The bank said that his account would be restricted for three weeks before it was deactivated, but the bank failed to cite a reason for the closure. “We had people all over the world,” Curtis told reporters. “We travel a lot and we need these cards in the field. And so, it had the potential to be very disruptive for us,” he continued. The only answer he received was that his Christian organization was “engaged in a type of business that they had chosen not to service.”

Lance Wallnau, a Christian author and preacher, was falsely accused of money laundering and had his account frozen. Indigenous Advance Ministries, a Christian organization that cares for the poverty-stricken people of Uganda, was debanked by Bank of America in April 2023. A church in Memphis that donated to the organization was also debanked. Bank of America simply said that the business operated above the “bank’s risk tolerance” and it took months for the ministries to gain access to their funds.
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Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 protects American citizens from blatant discrimination based on religion. If a bank refused to allow Hindus, Muslims, Jews, or any other religion to access their bank accounts, there would be civil unrest on the streets. The West permits the open persecution of Christians because 1) they do not want nations to have a united identity (i.e. a Christian nation), and 2) Christians tend to vote Conservative.

The corruption goes deeper. “In addition to the bank’s religious account closures and disregard for viewpoint diversity, we are also deeply concerned about recent revelations that Bank of America voluntarily shared its customers’ private financial data with the federal government as part of a wildly overbroad financial surveillance scheme intended to identify domestic terrorists,” the letter reads. The Biden Administration has asked banks to back to them regarding their political adversaries and their supporters.

On March 6, 2024, the House Select Subcommittees on the Weaponization of the Federal Government found that “the federal government was engaged in broad financial surveillance, prying into the private transactions of American consumers. This surveillance “was not predicated on any specific evidence of particularized criminal conduct and, even worse, it keyed on terms and specific transactions that concerned core political and religious expression protected by the Constitution,”’ the audit found.
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Banks were instructed to search transactions for keywords such as “Trump” and “MAGA” to look for “domestic terrorists.” They even asked banks to look for people who had purchased certain books such as religious texts. The federal government announced years ago without hesitation that the right-wing Conservatives are the biggest threat that they face, and they see you as the enemy. The federal government has an ongoing list of “hate groups” that include Christian organizations simply because they do not agree with the far-left narrative.

This is serious. Banks now can financially ruin individuals and organizations without just cause, bypassing every protection awarded to us in the Constitution. It is not only legal but also encourages banks to discriminate against Christians and conservatives.
Imagine how much easier this will be once we move to digital currency under CBDC and the government can see our transactions in real-time, Debanking anyone who they feel does not fall in line.

Wells Fargo is also under investigation for similar discriminatory practices. Both are members of the UN-backed Net-Zero Banking Alliance that aims to financially jeopardize anyone not adhering to the climate change agenda. Over 144 banks in 44 different countries with total assets of $74 trillion have joined this alliance.
Major banking institutions have been weaponized by the government. More attention needs to be paid to this insurmountable issue as the banks now have the authority to search an individual’s transactions and label them a domestic terrorist. The rule of law has been completely abandoned in America – this is no longer the land of the free.

It is my sincere desire to provide readers of this site with the best unbiased information available, and a forum where it can be discussed openly, as our Founders intended. But it is not easy nor inexpensive to do so, especially when those who wish to prevent us from making the truth known, attack us without mercy on all fronts daily. So each time you visit the site, I would ask that you consider the value that you receive and have received from The Burning Platform and the community of which you are a vital part. I can't do it all alone, and I need your help and support to keep it alive. Please consider contributing an amount commensurate to the value that you receive from this site and community, or even by becoming a sustaining supporter through periodic contributions. [Burning Platform LLC - PO Box 1520 Kulpsville, PA 19443] or PayPal
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https://morningporridge.com/blog/ban...-as-the-loser/

Central Banks, Trade, Political risk, Trump, Commodities, Politics, Currency, Debt, China, Sovereign Debt, interest rates, USA
Markets, The Dollar, US Politics, And China As The Loser.

Published On: April 22, 2024 Tags: interest rates, China, Trade War, US Election2 Comments on Markets, the Dollar, US Politics, and China as the loser.

Blain’s Morning Porridge April 22nd, 2024: Markets, the Dollar, US Politics and China as the loser.

“Governments need enemies, if they do not have one they will invent one to mobilize us.”

Markets should be relieved at the US reaching a bipartisan deal on Ukraine and Israel, but will likely be fixated on the current stock market wobble – which could turn sour. The real issue is how the weekend US deal focuses on the US vs China, and that has massive market and economic implications.

Harry Hindsight is the greatest trader I ever met. This is going to be a fascinating week – what will stock markets do next? We have a very earnings-hefty few days in prospect. Will something happen or be said that resets the narrative? Will we go up… or down…? This is heaven, this is hell, anyone for the last few choices? As someone brighter than I once said...

Over my brief nearly 40 years (!) in markets I’ve noticed how we often miss the immediate significance of the “events” that trigger major market shifts; Harry Hindsight saw how a series of bad US deficit numbers led to a sudden rush to the exits triggering Black Monday in 1987, how a Thai currency wobble metastasized into the Asian crisis in 1987, and how the run on Northern Rock in 2007 and gating a few Bear Stearns ABS funds led to the long rumbling crisis that culminated in the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008.

Equally, a single action by central banks, for instance, the ECB announcing unlimited secured lending to wobbling banks triggered the start of the longest, strongest European bond rally. (Actually, I called that one – live on Bloomberg as they said it many, many years ago.)

I am wondering if the current stock market ructions will be hindsight acknowledged to be a factor of Central Banks increasingly making clear we are in an era of “normalized” interest rates – that 4-5% rates will be the norm, rather than the 2% equity markets have been pricing themselves off. (Of course, it's never that simple – equity prices are likely to remain high, because 15 years of cheap money financing private equity and stock buybacks, and fewer IPOs of new companies coming to market means there are simply fewer equities in the market..)

Or will the market take strong earnings this week as a signal to rally or weak earnings as a signal to dump? Or will a single worse-than-expected number from a market darling derail hopes and expectations across the whole market…? Who knows... Let’s wait and see.

One of my many market mantras is: “The surprising thing about the dollar is the number of people who don’t believe in it.” Many market participants in Europe (but also some in the US) believe this November’s US election will fatally weaken global confidence in the greenback as American politics are likely to degenerate into further polarization, authoritarianism, or even conflict.

While US rates remain elevated, the dollar’s remorseless strength will continue. Although it will mean higher debt service costs across Government and the economy, it also means the US insatiable hunger for debt can be funded… unless of course, the market lost confidence in the USA’s Virtuous Sovereign Trinity of a stable currency, a sustainable bond market and political competency.

Political competency is a critical issue – especially given the fractured and dysfunctional US politics we see today.
On Saturday the USA put a degree of political competency back on the table – approving the critical monies to fund the defense of Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan, and its youth by voting through the TikTok ban/sale legislation.

It wasn’t a perfect deal by any measure, but congratulations to Speaker Mike Johnson – the comparatively unknown Republican now being hailed as “Churchill” by at least one US paper. He will likely be defenestrated (served a motion to vacate, rather than thrown out a window) by his party for cobbling together the right answer to all these problems by committing the cardinal sin of being bi-partisan in the service of his country. The Republicans may all be about the Art of the Deal, but dealing with Democrats is unforgivable to the MAGA Right.

Ukraine was the critical issue. The question is why has it taken so long?

The answer is simple – Donald Trump’s political calculus already showed a win. He achieved what he wanted – flexing his control over the party to create the funding standoff, while demonstrating to the American People it’s his loyal party that was holding President Biden “accountable”. Now that has been done, he’s on to the next thing – which won’t just be his multiple court cases, but the actual business of winning the election.

Trump will be claiming credit for the weekend’s deal as proof only he can make polarized USA work. (Nothing works politically as well for the Republicans as fueling a constant stream of crises for the current administration which Trump can play from the grandstand.) Already the narrative is being shifted from why the minority of Russian-favoring Republicans held back aid, to blaming the dangerous leftist Progressives for wrecking his nation through their commie sympathies and destructive wokery!

Let us not forget 112 House Republicans voted against Aid to Ukraine – yet, the first comment I got from one republican chum was about the treachery of the 37 Democrats who opposed further aid to Israel (as did 21 Republicans).

Speaker Johnson has done the “courageous” thing: the right thing but at the risk of apparent political suicide. In an America that would rather be voting for anyone else but Trump or Biden, isn’t it a shame that good men and true aren’t the ones who will be standing in November? Some think Johnson made a pawn sacrifice, but in the game of chess that is politics maybe that pawn is promoted to Queen – becoming the party’s kingmaker… (bit of a mixed metaphor as a pawn becomes a kingmaking queen – but you get the drift..)

The weekend’s vote in support of Ukraine does not mean the USA is fixed – but that it is pragmatically fixable – and that’s the key takeaway for the markets. It hints how things under Trump Mark 2 may not be nearly as bad as we fear.

US politics will remain dysfunctional and highly polarized because that’s what happens when populists, like Trump, make it so and have captured the party. But Trump will not last forever. While some commentators say the Republicans who voted in favor of the bipartisan deal were brave, I reckon they did so because there are unlikely to be Trump recriminations to follow. Another way to look at the vote is how Johnson was effectively chosen by Trump, yet has chosen the right thing – that’s a hopeful signal about how a second, more pragmatic, Trump administration could function.

However… choose your enemies carefully…
Ultimately, the weekend votes were less about the importance of supporting Ukraine and Israel, than the signal they sent to China. The Pacific aspects of the funding deal got the most votes, demonstrating the House is united in its support for Taiwan, and by ramping up production of new US attack submarines to patrol the Taiwan straights they made a clear do not-mess statement. The threat to TikTok confirms the US agrees on one thing – China is the real enemy.

And that’s the real issue – in its struggle to find some kind of political unity, the US has effectively declared an economic cold war and re-armament race against China. That will have serious and massive economic, supply chain, and cost implications which will impact the West.

The US has the advantage of a robust, internalized, and self-sufficient economy – yet it still needs access to critical resources and technologies. Conceivably it could do without external alliances – but these are critical markets for US goods and services. These are the same markets China – with its greater need for external resources – is looking to service.

Here in Europe we’ve been shocked and feel threatened by Trump. He has successfully awoken Europe to its need to defend itself (a good thing) but raised increasing distrust of America and the need for Europe to choose a new route. Will Europe slavishly follow the US lead on China? Now that is going to be interesting – China is something we need to think about more… I’m not convinced it’s not a threat, but it’s certainly a massive opportunity at a time when Europe and the US are likely to diverge.

More on China soon…. Will be keeping a close eye on markets this week… this might just get fruity…

Out of time and off to the day job…

Bill Blain
Author of the Morning Porridge
Wind Shift Capital

www.windshift.capital

https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/swi...s-central-bank

Swiss Bitcoiners Renew Efforts To Orange-Pill The Country's Central Bank

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BY TYLER DURDEN

TUESDAY, APR 23, 2024 - 05:00 AM

Authored by Brayden Lindrea via CoinTelegraph.com,

Several Swiss-based Bitcoiners are renewing attempts to get the Swiss National Bank to hold Bitcoin in its reserves by holding a referendum to change the country’s constitution — but they will need to convince more than 100,000 locals to sign a petition first.
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=HLt0wui8

Adding Bitcoin to the central bank’s reserves would help protect the country’s “sovereignty and neutrality” in an increasingly uncertain world, said Yves Bennaïm, founder and chairman of 2B4CH, a nonprofit think tank leading the charge.

“We are in the process of completing the organizational preparations for the committee and preparing the documents that must be submitted to the State Chancellery to start the process,” Bennaïm told Swiss news outlet Neue Zürcher Zeitung (NZZ) on April 20.

However, 100,000 signatures from Swiss nationals are needed within 18 months for a referendum to be held on issues brought about by Swiss nationals or groups — a threshold that plagued 2B4CH’s first attempt in October 2021.

2B4CH first launched the “Bitcoin Initiative” around that time, stating its mission was to add Bitcoin as a reserve currency to Article 99-3 of the Swiss Federal Constitution.

Switzerland boasts a population of 8.77 million, meaning about 1.15% of locals will need to sign the petition.
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=Qu3EvW_K
Source: Remo Uherek

“By including Bitcoin in its reserves, Switzerland would mark its independence from the European Central Bank. Such a step would strengthen our neutrality,” said Luzius Meisser, president of the Bitcoin-focused trading platform Bitcoin Suisse, who is assisting Bennaïm with the initiative.
Meisser will try to convince the Swiss National Bank about the benefits of adding Bitcoin to its balance sheet in an April 26 meeting. He’ll have three minutes to plead his case.

The executive previously tried to convince the central bank to buy 1 billion Swiss francs ($1.1 billion) of Bitcoin each month as an alternative to German government bonds in March 2022, according to NZZ.

However, Swiss National Bank Chair Thomas Jordan reportedly said Bitcoin didn’t meet the requirements for SNB to add it as a reserve currency in April 2022.

Meisser is now claiming that Switzerland would be 30 billion Swiss francs ($32.9 billion) richer had the central bank followed his suggestion in 2022 and that leaving it any later risks the chances of other central banks swooping in on Bitcoin, forcing Switzerland to buy at “significantly higher prices than everyone else,” he said.

However, Leon Curti, head of research at asset manager Digital Asset Solutions, is hopeful that the recent approvals of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the United States and Hong Kong will influence the Swiss National Bank to invest in Bitcoin.

The NZZ article brought about a positive response from Joana Cotar, a German politician and Bitcoin activist who strongly opposes a European Union-backed digital currency.

Cointelegraph reached out to 2B4CH but didn’t receive an immediate response.

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https://www.zerohedge.com/political/...rchives-target

"F**king Clown Show": Unsealed Court Docs Reveal Biden DOJ Colluded With National Archives To Target Trump, Jack Smith Tried To Conceal
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BY TYLER DURDEN

TUESDAY, APR 23, 2024 - 01:25 PM

Newly unsealed documents in Donald Trump's classified documents case reveal that the Biden White House colluded with the National Archives (NARA) and the FBI to concoct a case against the former president.
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=kXsvDqZ-

Journalist Julie Kelly has been all over this:

NEW: Thanks to an order by Judge Cannon, key evidence related to the classified docs case is now unredacted.

On the left: What DOJ/Jack Smith wanted to conceal.

On the right: Now we know why. More proof of collaboration btw Biden White House and NARA to concoct a case. pic.twitter.com/YVHVmAfOai
— Julie Kelly (@julie_kelly2) April 22, 2024

What's more, Special Counsel Jack Smith sought to conceal this - telling Judge Eileen Cannon in February that Trump's counsel isn't entitled to discovery on documents between the White House and NARA, that the court should toss requests for evidence of the alleged coordination, and that the court should deny Trump's request for evidence related to secure facilities at his residences. Further, Trump's request for unredacted discovery of materials should be denied.

To clear up any confusion as to what Special Counsel Jack Smith sought to conceal in the classified documents case, this is what Smith told Judge Cannon in Feb 2024 in response to Trump's motion to compel discovery from numerous govt agencies:

1) Defendants are not entitled to…
— Julie Kelly (@julie_kelly2) April 23, 2024

As the Epoch Times notes further, the trove of unsealed filings also revealed that the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s (FBI) code name for its investigation into President Trump’s presidential records was “[Redacted] Plasmic Echo.”
A key exhibit included with a motion to compel filed in January was an FBI case file labeled “[Redacted] PLASMIC ECHO; Mishandling of Classified or National Defense Information.”

The defense has argued that the emails unsealed on Monday indicate communication between NARA officials, the Biden administration, and the DOJ regarding President Trump’s records, alleging coordination in targeting the former president since 2021.

One email from NARA’s general counsel to the national archivist discussed drafting a letter to U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland concerning “missing Trump records.” Subsequent emails revealed coordination between NARA and the Biden White House counsel’s office regarding the handling of these records.

The same month (Feb 2022) that Biden’s White House and DOJ were in cahoots with NARA to concoct a reckless document-handling case against Trump, Maggie Haberman helped the cause by claiming Trump used to flush files down the toilet: https://t.co/6ahzAv3p0F
— Julie Kelly (@julie_kelly2) April 22, 2024

The Sept. 1, 2021, email revealed that NARA’s general counsel, Gary Stern, had been in touch with both the DOJ and the Biden White House “about this issue.” A subsequent email on Sept. 30, 2021, reveals that the White House counsel’s office “is now ready to set up a call to discuss the Trump boxes.”

This email came after Mr. Stern emailed Deputy White House Counsel Jonathan Su two days earlier to “check back in to see when and how you want to proceed re [sic] meeting with [redacted], [redacted], [redacted], and NARA to discuss the Trump boxes?”

Furthermore, the defense highlighted instances where NARA officials didn’t disclose certain actions to Trump representatives, suggesting bias in the investigation process.

The defense alleged that Mr. Su didn’t disclose to a Trump representative that NARA had already drafted a DOJ referral letter when contacting them to discuss access to notes “from the Trump administration relating to records handling.”

* * *

MORE NEW INFO from unredacted evidence in classified documents case.

Within 24 hours of receiving 15 boxes from Mar-a-Lago, here is an assessment by NARA.

F*cking clown show-- pic.twitter.com/yc6RKR7TXg
— Julie Kelly (@julie_kelly2) April 22, 2024

Despite extensive cooperation btw DOJ and NARA, the govt in May 2023 subpoenaed NARA for other documents. (Trying to figure this one out)

19 of the responsive docs--meaning complied with a specific request in subpoena--related to Crossfire Hurricane and John Durham investigation: pic.twitter.com/GUE1pxS1TF
— Julie Kelly (@julie_kelly2) April 23, 2024

More from Epoch:
The unsealed emails show that NARA took into consideration the Democrat-led January 6 Committee’s investigation when considering the timing of reporting to Congress on their issues of getting access to President Trump’s posts on Twitter (now X).

On Oct. 5, 2023, Mr. Stern wrote in an internal NARA email that the release of a letter to Congress “can be timed with our public release of the Trump social media records ... as well as our release to the 1/6 Committee of responsive tweets on the day of January 6.”
Mr. Stern noted that NARA had “issues” getting President Trump’s “social media records” because the Trump White House didn’t “capture them through the use of third-party archiving tools.”

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=iUVuLkRK
Documents seized during a raid by the FBI of former President Donald Trump's Mar-a-Lago estate in Palm Beach, Fla., on Aug. 8, 2022. (FBI via The Epoch Times)

“I do not think that these problems are something that the AG/DOJ can deal with, but it could be appropriate to report them to Congress, especially since the January 6 Committee has specifically requested Trump’s Tweets from January 6,” Mr. Stern wrote in the email.
Mr. Stern adds that the Biden White House counsel “is now also aware of this issue, and has asked that I keep them in the loop to the extent that we make any reference to the White House Office of Records Management.”

Another email shows Mr. Ferriero saying that he had run “out of patience” amid back-and-forth communications with Trump representatives regarding “missing boxes” that, according to a draft email to the attorney general, were reported as having been “possibly destroyed.”
‘Matters of Public Record’

The defense, along with a coalition of news media, asked the court to unseal these exhibits, arguing that the court filings are “matters of public record.”
The defense has accused the prosecution of withholding potentially exculpatory evidence and alleged bias in the investigation.

The filings made public on Monday revealed previously sealed information while limiting the redactions to keeping secret the names of government witnesses.

They were included as exhibits in a motion to compel the prosecution to produce discovery material. In the Jan. 16 motion, they argued that the office of Special Counsel Jack Smith has engaged in discovery violations and has disregarded fundamental fairness in its pursuit of prosecuting President Trump.

The disclosures come amid a protracted battle over court documents, with Judge Aileen Cannon having reminded both parties in various court filings of the “strong presumption of public access” in the criminal proceedings, showing a preference for making public as much as possible. In January, she ordered that no unclassified material be sealed unless there were clear risks to personal safety or national security.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/open-...privacy-rhxsc/

Open Banking: A Path to CBDCs and Erosion of Financial Privacy?

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Adrian C. Spitters FCSI, CFP, CEA Author, Private Wealth Advisor

Helping Business Owners, Farmers, Professionals, Executives, and High-Net-Worth Families Discover The Right Private Real Estate, Alternative Investments, Portfolio Managers, and Insurance Solutions. Open Networker LION

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March 22, 2024

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Credits: Competition Bureau recommends open banking to bolster competition

Thank you for reading Lasting Financial Security.

To continue receiving my posts, please follow Adrian C. Spitters FCSI, CFP, CEA, and sign up for my newsletter, Lasting Financial Security.
Please also check out and join my new group, The Counter Narrative.

With all the economic and market uncertainty, you may have questions or concerns about your financial well-being. As a valued Lasting Financial Security subscriber, we are offering a complimentary portfolio evaluation to confirm if your current investment strategy will meet your financial objectives. To learn how we can help you protect and grow your wealth during these uncertain times, please email me at [b][i][email protected][/i][/b] or use my Calendly Link to book your private strategy session.

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Open Banking: A Path to Financial Control by Government and Erosion of Privacy?
As Canada's Competition Bureau advocates swiftly implementing an open banking framework, major concerns are emerging about the unintended consequences. While promoted as fostering innovation and competition in financial services, open banking could lead to an erosion of financial privacy and unprecedented government control over citizens' economic participation.

Infrastructure for Government Surveillance and CBDCs
A core issue is that open banking may facilitate the adoption of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) by providing the required digitally integrated financial system infrastructure. Sharing consumers' data across platforms concentrates informational power in governments' hands.
CBDCs could grant authorities unparalleled visibility into all transactions, raising alarming privacy violations. Nebulous "financial inclusion" rhetoric from groups like Open Banking Excellence hints at deploying opaque social scoring systems to dictate individuals' economic access based on any criteria - not just creditworthiness.

Debanking and Financial Blacklisting
Recent examples foreshadow how an open banking system merged with CBDCs could enable asset freeze punishments from governments against citizens for any perceived infraction. UK politician Nigel Farage was abruptly debunked by his institution, unable to access funds or credit - not due to a crime but for voicing unpopular views.

This "financial blacklisting" has occurred during COVID lockdowns with blocked digital passes, in China's banking crises, and against celebrities for controversial speeches. It demonstrates how financial services could transform from neutral utilities into tools of control and coercion by the state.

Data Security Risks and Power Consolidation
Beyond the surveillance dangers, open banking's data-sharing requirements across entities increase cyber risks like breaches and identity theft. There are also concerns that it could consolidate power among large banks and big tech companies that leverage the data most effectively - the opposite of fostering competition.
As Canadian policymakers weigh an open banking framework, they must implement robust protections to uphold privacy rights and financial freedoms. Unbridled data sharing without safeguards risks opening Pandora's box, enabling governments and concentrated corporate power to control participation in the economy itself as a means of manufacturing obedience from the masses.

Financial innovation should empower individuals, not centralize power structures. Policymakers must responsibly unlock open banking's benefits without compromising core democratic principles and civil liberties. Failing to achieve this balance could see nominal economic reforms pave the way for authoritarian financial overreach.

Also Read: Canada to Incorporate Social Scores in Banking

Want to Learn More?

To learn more about the potential risks associated with open banking and how it may impact your financial situation, contact me at [b][email protected][/b]or use my Calendly Link. Together, we can navigate the evolving financial landscape and ensure your wealth remains protected and aligned with your long-term goals.

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To continue receiving my posts, please follow Adrian C. Spitters FCSI, CFP, CEA, and sign up for my newsletter, Lasting Financial Security.
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https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitic...start-passover

Hezbollah Launches Deepest Attack Into Israel Since War's Start, On Passover

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BY TYLER DURDEN

TUESDAY, APR 23, 2024 - 06:45 PM

Hezbollah on Tuesday conducted its deepest strikes into Israeli territory since the start of the war, launching drones at Israeli military bases on the outskirts of the Israeli city of Acre.

Israel's military said none of its facilities were hit, and videos circulating online appear to show Israeli anti-air systems intercepting at least one drone that was flying low over the Mediterranean, just off the coast where Acre is located.
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=DqqQXP-J

The IDF subsequently confirmed it intercepted two "areal targets" off Israel's northern coast. Thus far in the conflict, Hezbollah's daily rocket and drone attacks have tended to stay within a few kilometers of Israel.
However, Tuesday's attack seems to be sending a message that escalation could be imminent:
A security source told Arab News that the attack was "a sensitive targeting." The area struck is more than 15 km from the border with Lebanon.

"This targeting took place in broad daylight while the Israelis were celebrating the Jewish Passover," the source said.

Hezbollah said it launched the drones "in response to Israeli aggression against the Lebanese town of Aadloun and the assassination of a (Hezbollah) cadre there."
While the IDF denied that there were any direct hits on military bases, Lebanese source Al-Mayadeen reported that the headquarters of the army's Golani Brigade was struck with drones.

The below video shows an IDF intercept of a Hezbollah drone...

Another angle shows Israeli air defenses downing Hezbollah explosive-laden drones off the coast of Acre this morning. https://t.co/Km1MZNKQE6 pic.twitter.com/fbLfKo8QoZ
— Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) April 23, 2024

This was based on a Hezbollah statement claiming that the air attack "targeted the headquarters of the Golani Brigade and the headquarters of Egoz Unit 621 in the Sharaga barracks, north of the occupied city of Akka (Acre), and the drones hit their targets accurately."

Last week a major war between Iran and Israel was narrowly avoided after each side launched 'limited' strikes against the other. But tensions remain high and it could be that Iran's proxies, such as Hezbollah and Yemen's Houthis, could be set to escalate, especially as the IDF has Rafah set in its sites.

Interestingly, a fresh report in The New York Times says that Israeli leaders had planned a much bigger attack on Iran, but ditched the larger strike option at the last minute due to White House diplomatic intervention:
Israel reportedly abandoned plans for a much more extensive counterstrike on the Islamic Republic after concerted diplomatic pressure from the United States and other foreign allies and because the brunt of an Iranian assault on Israel soil had been thwarted, according to three senior Israeli officials:
Israeli leaders originally discussed bombarding several military targets across Iran last week, including near Tehran, the Iranian capital, in retaliation for the Iranian strike on April 13, said the officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe the sensitive discussions.

Such a broad and damaging attack would have been far harder for Iran to overlook, increasing the chances of a forceful Iranian counterattack that could have brought the Middle East to the brink of a major regional conflict.
In the end — after President Biden, along with the British and German foreign ministers, urged Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to prevent a wider war — Israel opted for a more limited strike on Friday that avoided significant damage, diminishing the likelihood of an escalation, at least for now.
Another angle showing a drone intercepted near Acre:

Footage purportedly shows two suspected drones being downed by air defenses off the coast of Acre a short while ago. pic.twitter.com/10iIjCn9wZ
— Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) April 23, 2024

According to a note via Rabobank, Mohamed El-Erian underlines a markets/NatSec disconnect over Mid-East events. Markets say “de-escalation”, because the oil price has gone down. National security figures worry, and those saying recent attacks were telegraphed might note reports of White House panic when Iran launched missiles, and Israel planning a larger military strike at first. We have calm now, but neither side will pass on the opportunity to weaken the other; the enmity is not over.

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Yields To Trigger "Serious Earthquakes" Across Economy: Jack Boroudjian

Jack and I discuss monetary policy, fiscal policy, the move in gold, politics, and why the bond market may take the spending keys away from the Biden administration.

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QUOTH THE RAVEN


Transcript
Jack Boroudjian is a legendary former floor trader and now Chairman of SmartXData. Aside from over 30 years of industry experience, Jack is a published author of "Secrets of the Trading", Wiley 2007, and has countless articles published in industry periodicals and websites. Jack appears regularly as a paid, guest contributor for CNBC, both domestically and in Asia, and has done over 5000 global guest Television appearances. Jack graduated with honors and distinctions from Loyola University of Chicago and is happily married with two adult children.

Here is my favorite clip of Jack on the floor from the PBS "Open Outcry" documentary:

Jack and I discussed monetary policy, fiscal policy, the move in gold, politics and why the bond market may take the spending keys away from the Biden administration.

"People have been conditioned to buy dips, and quite frankly, it was almost forced upon us," Jack explains. He points to several factors that shaped this behavior: "The Fed keeping money very loose, the lack of alternative investment avenues, and no real competition for capital—all of these elements contributed to creating a market condition that was, if you think about it, almost obscene."

Boroudjian draws on his experiences from the trading floors to illustrate his point: "It almost feels like what we used to call on the floor of the exchange, the big sucking noise. You'd hear people getting sucked into positions, all chasing the same strategy, and then, suddenly, the market would correct."

He reflects on the impact of such corrections: "I've seen the market correct by 20%, 30% numerous times in my life. But consider this: a 30% correction now equates to 1,500 S&P points. That's more than most people have ever witnessed in their lifetimes."

"Because there are still way too many people convinced that this little 5% pullback is a blip—it's nothing more than a hiccup. I've had at least half a dozen people tell me it's an election year; there's no way they'll let the market break. But the reality is this: if anybody wants to know what's going on, I would suggest reading Nassim Taleb's book, 'Black Swan.' It talks about it.”

Jack continues: “Nassim was a trader at First Boston—many don't know his story, but I used to handle him on the floor. He was an options trader in the pit and he went broke. This is one of the most brilliant minds on Wall Street, and he went broke as a floor trader. He got off the floor and ended up making billions of dollars. What took him down was a black swan, something that came out of nowhere that he did not expect, and that's exactly what we could see happening now. Could it be something that we've already seen the beginnings of?"

Talking about gold, Jack said: "So fundamentally, something has shifted in the last few months in the gold market. If you've noticed, central bank buying has never been this strong before. All of a sudden, you're starting to see Russia pay for things with gold. People are now paying for Russian oil with gold.”

“Gold is becoming the currency that Bitcoin was hoping to be one day. And it's starting to turn into something more tangible than fiat currency. It gives you a reflection of how people are starting to feel about paper money. They're starting to realize that maybe there's a problem there. So when central banks start to buy gold, that tells you there is more than just a technical breakout. There's a fundamental shift happening, whether they believe that there is a debasement that is going to occur and continue to occur. And if that's the case, then you will see them stockpile gold, or they see it as a haven and see huge problems down the road. And I hope that's not the case,” he continued.

Jack explained that watching the 10 years is going to be the way to gauge the health of the economy.
"This is what I keep telling people: watch the 10-year yield. Keep an eye on the 10-year and the 30, but more importantly, the 10, because that's the part of the curve that the Fed really cannot manipulate. They can do the short end of the curve, but they can't do the long end.”

He continued: “Why do I say that? We used to call them the bond vigilantes in the old days. They were the people that would come in and you'd start to see them hitting that bond market, especially on the long end, because of what you just described. When the bond market starts to understand that the biggest expenditure on the balance sheet now is going to be servicing the debt, bigger than defense, bigger than anything else, you'll start to see bonds get hit, especially on the long end. That's one of the reasons we've started to see the 10-year doing what it's been doing.”
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“I think we see a five, maybe even five and a half percent 10-year before we're done here,” Jack said. “And if that's the case, that is going to trigger some serious earthquakes within real estate and other sectors of the economy. So to me, we're on the precipice. You can feel it. But how long will we be here? I don't know. It feels like something can break at any time. But then again, you know what? We could be two years early. And if that's the case, it could stay ridiculously overbought for two years."

"The 10-year bond is the most liquid. It's the one that everybody—the Chinese, the Saudis—is holding. That's the fixed income note of choice for the entire world."
"The one thing that I know about the Treasury market is that less than 5% of the people in finance understand the Treasury market, which is scary when you think about it. And that's the truth, Chris. Think about that. Less than 5%. That's the going rate. And everyone knows stocks. And as you were talking about it, people who have been in the market for the last 10 years have seen the stock market go nothing but up and seen a bond market that's gone nothing but down. But the reality is that this bond market is poised to do something historical in my mind."

You can listen to my full interview with Jack above and for more on how treasury auctions work, you can read this piece:

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Treasury Auctions Explained For People With Short Attention Spans

https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p...ned-for-people

Treasury Auctions Explained For People With Short Attention Spans
My friend James Lavish published an excellent read last year, describing, in lay terms, how treasury auctions work and the terminology used to describe them.

Given that the market took a sharp turn lower on Thursday afternoon after the results of a dogshit (technical finance term #8203) 30 year treasury auction that posted a stunning 5.3 bps tail and a bid to cover that was the lowest since December 2021, I thought it would be a good idea to refresh myself and my readers on…well, exactly what the fuck all that stuff means.

Tail? Bid-to-cover? Beavis and Butthead had better luck understand things in Spanish class back at Highland High:

In plain terms, yesterday’s bond auction means the government sale of debt that is necessary to continue running the economic Ponzi scheme we call fiscal and monetary policy didn’t go quite as well as old crow Janet Yellen’s medicine show would have liked.

Why is understanding the rest of the jargon and nonsense about auctions important? Take a look at the equity market’s reaction to the 30Y auction on Thursday, courtesy of Mr. Durden over at Zero Hedge:
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Chart: Zero Hedge
And so when you’re having the perfunctory happy hour discussion about “the day in markets” in your Patagonia vest in some douchebag bar in Tribeca full of everyone I’ve tried to avoid my entire life, wouldn’t you like to make some sense? Or, at least, fake it well like I do?
Zero Hedge’s full coverage of the disaster auction Thursday can be found here, though it’s probably worth a read after James’ below “…for Dummies” series on how to understand auction terminology, contained below.

The below explanation of how treasury auctions work was written in 2022 by James Lavish, CFA, who you can follow on Twitter here or subscribe to his newsletter here. I highly recommend both. The original thread is here - I’ve unrolled and edited it slightly to make it a little easier to read.
Treasury auctions can give us clues to the health or problems of the entire US financial system. But what are those clues and how can you tell?

Auction Terminology & Basics
First, this thread is about auctions by the US Treasury, selling bonds to finance US public debt. They have various maturities and names:

1. T-Bills are shorter than 1 yr
2. Notes are shorter than 10 yrs
3. Treasury Bonds are longer than 10 years
4. and Treasury Inflation Protection Securities (TIPS) and Floating Rate Notes (FRNs) have various maturities

These can all be referred to as 'bonds', but traders never refer to anything above 10 years as a 'note'. Treasury auctions occur regularly, and ~300 public auctions are held each year.
You can see here, the US Treasury has auctioned about $11.2T of bonds in 2022 [when James’ original thread was written], so far.
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[QTR: And below is an updated chart for 2023.]
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Big business. One that needs a lot of demand to keep this whole debt charade going.

Let’s clarify some definitions and rules to better understand what happens during an auction. First, to participate directly, a bidder must have an established account.
Institutions use TAAPS (Treasury Automated Auction Processing System), and individuals use a Treasury Direct account. Individuals can only place *non-competitive* bids, where they agree to accept whatever discount rate (yield) is set by the auction. Institutions can place either non-competitive or *competitive* bids, where the bidder specifies an interest rate they are willing to accept.

Institutions can also trade in advance of an auction, and then settle with each other when the auction happens. This is called the *when-issued* market and is pretty important to our discussion, so we’ll talk more about that in a bit.

Back To The Auction Itself
Once an auction begins, the Treasury first accepts all non-competitive bids and then auctions off the remainder of what it's looking to raise. This is where competitive bidders are unsure whether they'll be filled at their price. The process is called a *Dutch auction*.

For example, say the Treasury wants to raise $100 million in 10-year Notes with a 4% coupon. And say it receives $10 million of non-competitive bids.
The Treasury first accepts all these non-competitive bids and reduces the amount left for the Dutch auction to $90 million. If it then receives the following competitive bids:

1. $25 million at 3.88%
2. $20 million at 3.90%
3. $30 million at 4.0%
4. $30 million at 4.05%
5. $25 million at 4.12%

The bids with the lowest yield will be accepted first and then ascend up until the auction is filled.
Here, the Treasury needs to raise $100 million.

It first accepts $10 million of non-competitive bids, then all competitive bids up to 4.0% ($75 million), then $15 million of the 4.05% bids for $90 million total. So, those who bid 4.05% would receive half of their orders filled.

At the auction's end, all bidders receive the same yield at the highest accepted bid.
In this case, $100 million of Treasuries were auctioned off at 4.05%.
On the face of it, this looks pretty bad, as the Treasury had to offer a higher yield to raise its target amount.
But how bad? And how can we tell?

Metrics Of An Auction: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly
The answer—per usual with Wall Street—lies in the expectations of pricing. Let’s turn to the metrics of an auction next to find out how.

*Bid to Cover Ratio*
One of the first things traders look at is the Bid to Cover ratio (often referred to as BTC). A simple statistic, this is just the total amount of bids received divided by the amount of bonds sold at an auction.

In the case above, the total bids amounted to $140 million and the auction was for $100 million of Notes, so the BTC ratio would be 1.4x.
Like many stats, what we're often looking for is changes from prior periods. Is the BTC ratio rising or falling? And how rapidly?

If market liquidity is drying up, this would be a good first indicator. If it drops low enough, it’s a major red flag. More on that in a minute.
Looking at the release of stats from [one of last year’s] US 10-year Note auctions, we can see at the bottom, in the footnotes, that this auction had a 2.37 BTC ratio
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And looking at recent 10-year Treasury Note auctions, we see this is largely in line with the BTC we have been seeing, so no red flags here.
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The High Yield
Another, usually much more important, metric to keep an eye on is the *stop price*, aka the *high yield* (see in press release above)—the actual yield received by bidders in the auction.

Two things we're looking for here. Remember how we said these securities trade in a when-issued market before and leading up to an auction?

This creates what is called the *snap price*. It sets the price expectations for an auction and is a critical piece of information for investors.
First, was the auction overbid or underbid? In overbidding, the stop (high yield) is lower than the snap (when issued yield), and this is usually seen as a solid auction. With underbidding, the stop is higher than the snap, indicating a weak auction.

To put it simply, the snap (when issued) tells us how the bond traded leading up to the auction, and the stop (high yield) tells us how strong the auction was itself.
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The Auction Tail
Another thing we’re looking for with the high yield and a bond-fan favorite is called the *auction tail*. The tail is the high yield minus the bond’s when-issued yield.
[QTR: In simpler, slightly less accurate terms, you can think of it as the spread between expected yield, pre-auction, and the reality of the high yield actually determined by the auction. Even simpler, but less accurate, you can think of it as a spread between expectations and reality for the auction, of sorts, with a higher spread meaning a bigger gap].

If there is no measurable tail, we say that the auction finished *on the screws*.

A negative tail means that the auction went better than expected, with higher-than-expected demand. But a positive tail tells us the auction did not go well because the yield realized in the auction exceeded market expectations, meaning weaker-than-expected demand.

Bottom line, the tail measures unanticipated Treasury demand shifts before auction. The larger the tail, the worse the auction.
And if we ever see a tail in the 4, 5, or 6 bps range, this would be considered disastrous in the bond world and mean things are breaking in US Treasuries. [QTR: Thus the importance of yesterday’s 5.3 bps tail…]

OK, so now we know that a low bid-to-cover could be a red flag, an underbid auction can be cause for some concern, and a big tail is a big no-no. But what exactly does it mean when a Treasury auction fails?

Treasury Auction Total Failure
Going back to the BTC ratio, you may wonder what happens if the Treasury holds an auction and receives fewer bids than face value of the securities they're selling.
This would mean the BTC falls below 1, and the Treasury failed to raise as much money as they expected. In the bond world, this is a failed auction and nothing short of catastrophic for the US Treasury.

So you may ask, with dwindling demand for USTs and active selling from Japan and China, is there a possibility of a failed auction soon? Why yes. Yes there is.
But there are a couple of fixes to prevent this from happening, at least yet.

See, US commercial banks are still flush with capital, as the Fed is receiving over $2.3T of reverse repo purchases daily [QTR: This number is closer to $1T daily now, as of November 2023]. This is extra cash that banks sell to the Fed overnight to be paid interest.
James has also written an entire Substack post about the repo and reverse repo market that you can read here for free.

One fix is the Fed adjusting commercial bank SLR requirements to let them hold more bonds instead of cash or cash-like instruments. Or, the Treasury could issue more short-term notes and fewer bonds, allowing all this reverse repo money to be used in the auctions instead. But once that $2.3T runs out [QTR: again, now $1T], all bets are off, and QE infinity is on.

With all of that being said, now let's look back on Thursday’s auction tail, courtesy of a chart from Zero Hedge:
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Given your newfound knowledge, I recommend reading this wrap-up of the auction. Then, you can join 18K+ of James Lavish’s readers here: jameslavish.com.
As for me? I’m going for a couple of cold ones. And not in Tribeca. Fuck those guys.
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QTR’s Disclaimer: I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors and are either published with the author’s permission or under a Creative Commons license. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. These positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple of beers sometimes. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.

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QUOTH THE RAVEN
·
NOVEMBER 10, 2023

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QTR’s Disclaimer: I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have not been fact checked are the opinions of their authors and are either published with the author’s permission or under a Creative Commons license. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. These positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.