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The Implications of Fatal Debt? Expect More Lies - VON GREYERZ AG

The Implications of Fatal Debt? Expect More Lies
https://staging.goldswitzerland.com/...47-1-Matt.webp

By Matthew Piepenburg
Partner
March 31, 2024

If you want to understand the direction of debt, rates, the USD, inflation, risk asset markets, gold and the US endgame, it might be better not to listen to the experts

Johnny Cash is a far better source…

Five Feet High & Rising
In a classic 1959 tune by Johnny Cash, the singer asks: “How high’s the water mama?”
This question is then answered by a riff that chants, “she said it’s two feet high and rising.’”
And with each subsequent refrain, the water level goes to three feet, four feet and then five feet, “high and rising’.”
In short: An obvious flood.

And when it comes to debt in the land of the world reserve currency, Johnny Cash may have something to teach Jerome Powell and the other DC children drowning the US (and its debt-soaked Dollar) into a slow but steady debt flood.

Boring?
I’ve often said that good journalism, like honest economics, is boring.

One has to understand “hard” indicators like bond yields (which move inversely to bond price) and the high-school level basics of supply and demand forces.

But as I’ve also said countless times, and will say countless times more: The bond market is THE thing, because bonds are all about DEBT.

If you understand bonds, and in particular, the Fed’s hidden (real) mandate to save Uncle Sam’s sovereign IOUs from sinking in price, then you will be able to easily foresee (rather than date predict) the future of risk assets, gold, BTC, the USD and yes, inflation.
The complex truly is that simple.

How High’s the Debt Mama? 120% and Rising’
And if you turn to Johnny Cash and ask “How high’s the debt level mama?” well… the blunt answer informs just about everything you need to know.
So, let’s keep it simple.

Simple, Not Boring
Debt is WHERE it all begins, and it tells you exactly HOW the American song ends.
And just how high is the water (debt) mama?
Ten years ago, US public debt was $17T “and rising’.”
Today it’s $34.5T “and rising’.”

America’s debt to GDP is 120%, its deficit to GDP is around 6%, and every 100 days we add another $1T in borrowing to our shameless bar tab of debt addiction masquerading as capitalism.
https://vongreyerz.gold/content/uplo...3/image-35.png

Even our own Congressional Budget Office will confess that unless we issue more debt (and print more debased money to monetize it), our Medicare and Social Security piggy bank will be empty by 2030.

Meanwhile, the USA is staring down the barrel of $212T in unfunded liabilities yet only $190T in assets.
In other words, and based on objective math, America has the balance sheet of a banana republic.

No Crisis?
Apologists (i.e., truth and math-challenged politicos), however, will tell you there is no crisis, even as the water levels rise past our closed eyes.

The clever ones will remind us that America’s USD comprises 85% of FX transactions, the vast bulk (80%) of international trade settlements, and is in constant “milk-shake” demand from the Eurodollar, derivative, and SWIFT payment systems.

In other words, the Dollar is gonna be just fine.
Hmmm…

Facts vs. “Just Fine”
As warned from day 1 of the myopic (and suicidal) sanctions against Putin in which the US weaponized the world reserve currency, those days of a “just fine” USD simply ended.

Not all at once, but slow and steady, like a flood’s water line…

In just 2 years, we’ve seen undeniable signs of de-dollarization from the BRICS+ nations and an extraordinarily telling shift in the petrodollar dynamics (20% of 2023 global oil sold outside the USD), which would have been otherwise unimaginable in the pre-sanction era.

But, if you remain convinced that America and its reserve currency have magical immunity from the de-dollarization’s slow drip greenback demise, let’s get back to the oh-so-boring but oh-so-honest cries of the US Treasury market.
Why?

Again. Because the bond market is everything.
As important, the bond market has everything to do with debt, and current US debt is drowning the nation and diluting the USD, one slow trillion at a time.
Sound sensational?

Pounding A Fact-Based Fist
For years, I have pounded my fist reminding readers and viewers that debt destroys nations and currencies. Every time, and without exception.

For years I have pounded my fist saying that Powell’s “war on inflation” was a ruse, as every debt-soaked nation needs to debase its currency to inflate away debt.

And from day 1 of Powell’s claim (lie) that inflation was “transitory,” I’ve been calling his bluff.

For years, I’ve argued that the Fed would simply lie about inflation (i.e., grossly under-report it) to make it appear statistically lower than what we knew/felt it to be.

Even Larry Summers, who is the classic arsonist (from his repeal of Glass-Steagall to deregulating the derivatives markets) now playing at fireman, has publicly stated that the actual US CPI scale, using pre-1983 housing methods, peaked last year at 18%, not the official 3.7% range…

If we then tack on a US debt/GDP ratio that is 30% higher today than in 2009, we mathematically see that despite Powell’s repressive “higher-for-longer” rate polices, we’ve made zero dent in our debt—instead, we’ve increased it.

In other words, our war against inflation is a loss; and our debts have increased.

And in the last couple of years, I’ve been pounding my fist that Powell would pivot from rising rates to pausing rate cuts to eventually cutting rates followed in turn by outright money printing (or rather mouse-clicking Dollars) to “pay” Uncle Sam’s debt at the expense of our currency via what Luke Gromen calls “super QE.”
And all modesty aside, I think I/we have been right…

Right or Wrong?
Already, and as of last week, Powell has openly projected rate cuts in 2024, and they are likely to come by or near September.
We’ll see.

For now, just the promise (words) of rate cuts have been enough to send Pavlovian (Fed-dependent) markets to all-time highs despite a real economy already under water.

The subsequent decline in the Market Option Volatility Estimate (“MOVE” Index) was a neon-flashing sign that the market is getting ready for a new flood of dollar-diluting liquidity…
https://vongreyerz.gold/content/uplo...3/image-36.png

Where’s the QE, Matt?
But what about my forewarned QE?

What about that ultimate moment when Powell admits full defeat in his so-called “war” on inflation (while quietly seeking inflation) and openly does what many of us (nod again to Luke Gromen et al) already know he will do, that is: Debase the currency to “save” a rigged-to-fail (i.e., debt-based) USA?

It seems I/we have been wrong about that QE, no?
Well…Not so fast.

Coming Through the Back Door
Powell, along with his former Fed colleague-turned-mind-numbing Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, has been doing un-noticed back-door QE at staggering levels too complex (or obvious) for the mental midgets in our so-called mainstream media to even notice.
Shocker? Hardly…

Facts Are Stubborn Things
The fact is that five times in the last four years, DC has been doing QE by just another name (what I call “backdoor QE”) to avoid the embarrassment of direct QE.

Notwithstanding the “not-QE” (which was QE) in 2019 when the Fed bailed out a cash-dry repo market (which, by design, no one understood), the DC magicians have been doing trillions worth of QE-like liquidity measures without having to call it, well QE…

That is, the Fed and Treasury Dept. have been pulling liquidity out of the drying Treasury General Account, the now-retired “BTFP” measures, and the intentionally confusing reverse repo markets.

More recently (and equally as well intentionally confusing to the masses), the Fed is quietly on the verge of allowing the Fed banks to use unlimited leverage to buy unlimited amounts of USTs off the Fed’s balance sheet via the removal of what the fancy lads call “Supplementary Reserve Ratios.”

This latest trick, by the way, is just off-balance sheet QE, and yet another symptom of the big banks becoming branch offices of the Fed, as our already centralized America becomes even more grotesquely, well…centralized, which is a classic symptom of a desperate and debt-soaked regime.

But just in case none of the foregoing tricks of backdoor QE have convinced you of what amounts to just QE, we can get our clearest signals from—you guessed it: THE BOND MARKET.

That is, one of the most obvious examples of “backdoor QE” is the Treasury Department’s open yet ignored trick of issuing most of its recent debt from the short-duration end of the yield curve.

What The T-Bills Are Saying
Issuing more short-term IOUs in the form of T-Bills takes the supply-push inflation pressure off the openly unloved 10Y USTs, whose price declines (and subsequent as well as fatally unpayable yield/rate spikes) not only crushed regional banks but Uncle Sam’s wallet as well.
OK. Yield curves and duration implications may sound, well… boring, but stick with me because this matters.

The extreme levels of T-Bill issuance (as opposed to 10Y IOUs) have immense implications and is a flashing neon sign that the US is not heading into an economic crisis, but is in fact, ALREADY in a crisis.

Today, T-Bill issuance is at a two-decade high and comprises greater than 85% of all US Treasury issuance.
This short-end issuance is far more like QE, i.e. simple money printing—which, we remind you, is highly inflationary/reflationary.

Hard to believe? See for yourself:
https://vongreyerz.gold/content/uplo...3/image-37.png

The last time we saw such QE-like desperation from the T-Bill side of the yield curve was during the Great Financial Crisis and the COVID crisis.

No Crisis? Huh?
But according to our so-called “leaders,” we are not at all in a crisis today. As they keep reminding us, we are at “full employment” (eh-hmmm) and nominal GDP is growing at 6%.

Then again, nominal GDP “growing” on the back of over $23T in UST issuance (bonds, notes and bills) is simply debt-driven “growth,” and debt-driven growth is not growth, it’s just debt.
https://vongreyerz.gold/content/uplo...3/image-38.png

In short, and as Luke Gromen concluded far better than I: “You know the debt crisis is real when the US resorts to short-term debt issuance.”

Summing Up
Whenever one is dealing with truth-challenged profiles like the Fed, Treasury Dept or White House, it is far better/simpler to watch what they do rather than what they say, as the difference is approximately 180 degrees…

All of the evidence above (from debt levels, de-dollarization trends, petrodollar shifts, backdoor QE measures, and T-Bill over-issuance) screams an open and obvious debt crisis which ALWAYS indicates a consequent currency crisis.
Always.

And as I have said for years, including a public discussion with Brent Johnson, the US can’t afford a strong USD because its debt levels require a weaker, inflated USD, regardless of its “relative”/DXY “strength.”

The string cites of the evidence above (and beyond just rate cuts) is simply a cleverly veiled way of the Fed and Treasury telling us they want (need) a much weaker USD to save their necks at the expense of the dollar in your portfolio, checking account, or wallet.
Gold, of course, is sniffing this out.

So are the stock markets and BTC.

So are the global central banks, who are stacking gold and dumping USTs at record levels.

The COMEX and London exchanges are also sniffing this out, as physical gold and silver is going from churn motions to actual physical delivery at record levels.

Meanwhile, even the BIS has made gold a Tier-1 asset.
Just saying…

The empirical (rather than “sensational”) evidence of an unloved UST and distrusted (debased and weaponized) USD is there for all who have eyes to see and ears to hear.

Gold has hit all-time highs (and will go much, much higher) simply because the USD is going much, much lower.
But, of course, no one in DC will say the quiet part out loud.

About Matthew Piepenburg
Matt began his finance career as a transactional attorney before launching his first hedge fund during the NASDAQ bubble of 1999-2001 Thereafter, he began investing his own and other HNW family funds into alternative investment vehicles while operating as a General Counsel, CIO and later Managing Director of a single and multi-family office. Matthew worked closely as well with Morgan Stanley’s... More...

Matthew Piepenburg
Partner
VON GREYERZ AG
Zurich, Switzerland
Phone: +41 44 213 62 45
VON GREYERZ AG global client base strategically stores an important part of their wealth in Switzerland in physical gold and silver outside the banking system. VON GREYERZ is pleased to deliver a unique and exceptional service to our highly esteemed wealth preservation clientele in over 90 countries.

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Making sense of bitcoin ETF outflows — The Financial Revolutionist (thefr.com)

Fintech News Stories

Making sense of bitcoin ETF outflows

March 20, 2024, The Financial Revolutionist
The SEC’s decision to approve a handful of spot bitcoin ETFs in January was expected to buoy retail and institutional investor confidence in crypto-based financial products. To what extent has that prediction come to fruition?

Rather than a rising tide that lifts all boats, the market-landscape development has begun to create pools of winners and losers. For one, a report by Coin Shares suggests that, by March 15th, $13.2B of inflows have gone to investment products like spot bitcoin ETFs, meaning more than $74.61B in bitcoin is now under custody. Bitcoin has emerged as a definitive winner on this front, representing 97% of inflows—beating out Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies.
But that figure is consistently in flux and has changed dramatically in just the past week. Eleven bitcoin ETFs saw a total of $500M in outflows in the past two days—including $1B in withdrawals from Grayscale over the past seven days.

The ETFs, perhaps unsurprisingly, carry many of the speculative tendencies that define the crypto trading space writ large. Bitcoin’s price has fallen by 16% since its record high last week, encouraging outflows from costlier bitcoin ETFs and from the space in general.
“The fact there’s regulated entities providing investment options into bitcoin is something that gives investors confidence, but it doesn’t alter the fundamental nature of bitcoin itself,” Laith Khalaf, Head of Investment Analysis at AJ Bell, told the Financial Times.

To Grayscale CEO Michael Sonnenshein, however, superlative outflows are just a sign that the company’s fees are too high compared to competitors’ bitcoin investment offerings. BlackRock, for instance, saw $527M in inflows over the past week, a sign that its ETF offering is both competitively affordable and successful.
“Of course, we anticipated having outflows,” Sonnenshein said in an interview with CNBC. “Investors have been wanting to either take gains on their portfolio, or arbitragers coming out of the fund, or people unwinding positions that were part of bankruptcies through forced liquidation.”

“What we’ve seen is GBTC continue to trade liquidly with tight spreads, and across a very diversified shareholder base. So we kind of think we’re between the first and the second inning of this,” he continued, adding that Greyscale’s fees will come down through new products and efficiency improvements. “And now we’re kind of starting to move towards that second and third inning, where there’s so much more of the market that still is not yet accessing these products.”
Greyscale’s understanding of pathways to market growth—that crypto-based financial products are only in nascent stages—is a fairly normative statement from any financial CEO, but it may reveal the deeper anxiety surrounding crypto products. Do these ETFs, like the cryptocurrencies undergirding them, require more investors to buy into their vision to become successful and profitable?

(21) Money Supply Dips for First Time Since November (substack.com)

By Peter Schiff
Money Supply is a very important indicator. It helps show how tight or loose current monetary conditions are regardless of what the Fed is doing with interest rates. Even if the Fed is tight, if Money Supply is increasing, it has an inflationary effect.
One key metric shown below is the “Wenzel” 13-week annualized money supply figure. It was made popular by the late Robert Wenzel who tracked the metric weekly as an indicator of where the economy might be headed. In 2020, the Fed started reporting the data monthly instead of weekly. It should also be noted that Money Supply data can be heavily revised in future months.
Recent Trends
Seasonally Adjusted Money Supply is delayed by a month. The decrease in Money Supply shown below occurred in February.
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/...1999x1000.jpeg

Figure: 1 MoM M2 Change (Seasonally Adjusted)
February was a very modest drop of -0.4%.

https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/...d_1999x179.png
Figure: 2 M2 Growth Rates
This is well below the February average of +6.3%.
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/...1999x1000.jpeg

Figure: 3 Average Monthly Growth Rates
Non-seasonally adjusted numbers show data through early March, with a large uptick in the most recent period.
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Figure: 4 MoM M2 Change (Non-Seasonally Adjusted)
The weekly data below shows the activity over the last month in unadjusted money supply. You can see the big jump in the most recent week.
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/...1999x1000.jpeg

Figure: 5 WoW M2 Change
The “Wenzel” 13-week Money Supply
The late Robert Wenzel of Economic Policy Journal used a modified calculation to track Money Supply. He used a trailing 13-week average growth rate annualized as defined in his book The Fed Flunks. He specifically used the weekly data that was not seasonally adjusted. His analogy was that in order to know what to wear outside, he wants to know the current weather, not temperatures that have been averaged throughout the year.
The objective of the 13-week average is to smooth some of the choppy data without bringing in too much history that could blind someone from seeing what’s in front of them. The 13-week average growth rate can be seen in the table below. Decelerating trends are in red and accelerating trends in green. The last three weeks have seen a deceleration in Money Supply growth.

https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/...dd_1999x70.png
Figure: 6 WoW Trailing 13-week Average Money Supply Growth
The plot below shows how this year compares with previous years. The 13-week average reached an all-time low back in May of last year but has been accelerating ever since, with only a modest pull-back in the current period. This could be one of the components driving the stock market higher. Record negative Money Supply growth turning positive will certainly provide a tailwind to equities. That said, compared to previous years, Money Supply growth is still well below the average.
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/...1999x1000.jpeg

Figure: 7 Yearly 13-week Overlay
Inflation and Money Supply
The chart below shows the history of inflation, Money Supply, and Fed Funds. As shown, in 1970 inflation worked with 2 year lag compared to Money Supply. Given this, another bout of inflation may be lurking just under the surface.
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/...1999x1000.jpeg

Figure:8 YoY M2 Change with CPI and Fed Funds
Historical Perspective
The charts below are designed to put the current trends into historical perspective. The orange bars represent annualized percentage change rather than raw dollar amount.
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/...1999x1000.jpeg

Figure: 9 M2 with Growth Rate
Below is the 13-week annualized average over history. This chart overlays the log return of the S&P. Mr. Wenzel proposed that large drops in Money Supply could be a sign of stock market pullbacks. His theory, derived from Murray Rothbard, states that when the market experiences a shrinking growth rate of Money Supply (or even negative) it can create liquidity issues in the stock market, leading to a sell-off.
While not a perfect predictive tool, many of the dips in Money Supply precede market dips. Specifically, the major dips in 2002 and 2008 from +10% down to 0%. 2022 was highly correlated with a fall in Money Supply and the rebound has corresponded with the big stock market move we have seen recently.
Please note the chart only shows market data through Mar 4th to align with available M2 data.
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/...1999x1000.jpeg

Figure: 10 13-week M2 Annualized and S&P 500
One other consideration is the reverse repo market at the Fed. This is a tool that allows financial institutions to swap cash for instruments on the Fed balance sheet.
Reverse Repos peaked at $2.55T on Dec 30, 2022. Money has been gushing out ever since. While the Fed has been maintaining higher interest rates, this drop in reverse repos is certainly providing liquidity to the economy, driving Money Supply and the stock market higher.
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/...1999x1000.jpeg

Figure: 11 Fed Reverse Repurchase Agreements
Wrapping Up
Money Supply can be a leading indicator and help explain the action in the stock market. Money Supply fell the entire year of 2022, bottomed in early 2023, and has been rising since. Keeping an eye on Money Supply can help one understand how much wind the stock market has at its back.
Data Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL and also series WM2NS and RRPONTSYD. Historical data changes over time so numbers of future articles may not match exactly. M1 is not used because the calculation was recently changed and backdated to March 2020, distorting the graph.
Data Updated: Monthly on fourth Tuesday of the month on 3-week lag
Most recent data: Mar 04, 2024
Schiff Gold: Interested in learning how to buy gold and buy silver? Call 1-888-GOLD-160 and speak with a Precious Metals Specialist today!

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QTR’s Disclaimer: I am not a guru or an expert. I am an idiot writing a blog and often get things wrong and lose money. I do not fact check contributor material that I aggregate from other sources. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning and generally trade like a degenerate psychopath. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities or any asset class - just my opinions of me and my guests. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in and I’m sure have lost more than I’ve made in my time in markets. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. Positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it three times because it’s that important.

Le Curateur public sous la loupe du procureur général | Le Devoir

The Curateur public under the Attorney General's magnifying glass

 

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Daphnée Hacker-B.
August 7, 2014

1. Society

A recent decision by the Court of Appeal is likely to grant new rights to the approximately 13,000 people under the guardianship of the Curateur public. An 88-year-old woman, deemed unfit to take care of her property, has been challenging the Curateur public's decision to put her building up for sale for months. However, it is impossible for Goldie Chaikofsky — and for any person under curatorship — to have recourse to a legal representative other than the Curator, even in the event of disagreement. Faced with this apparent conflict of interest, the judge of the Court of Appeal exceptionally ordered the Attorney General to examine whether there was a loophole in the law.

«In my 40 years in the business, I have never seen a situation where a judge asks the attorney general [the state's attorney] to intervene in a private case. It gives us a lot of hope that things will change," says Ura Greenbaum, director of the Association for the Defense of Persons and Their Property under Public Guardianship. The retired lawyer, who has defended people under curatorship for more than 20 years, says there are many cases like Ms. Chaikofsky, where the curator decides to sell a property without the owner's consent. According to him, certain provisions of the Code of Civil Procedure should be reviewed so that in the event of a dispute, a neutral and external lawyer, or ad hoc tutor, is appointed to represent the person under curatorship.

"Currently, the dependents of the Curateur public are defenseless, already that they are for the most part isolated and have no loved ones to help them, they are deprived of their right to have access to a lawyer," deplores Mr. Greenbaum. He said he is looking forward to hearing the Attorney General decide on September 2, when the case will be heard.

As for the Curateur public, the director of communications, Aline Charest, says that "it is impossible to comment on the situation while the case is before the courts."


A sale deemed illegal

Mr. Greenbaum believes that the decision by the Curateur public to sell Ms. Chaikofsky's triplex is illegal. According to the provisions of the Civil Code, he continues, the curator must only sell a person's property when he or she is experiencing liquidity problems. In this case, the woman has more than $140,000 in RRSPs and stocks. "There is no justification for this sale," said the lawyer, who added that the curator wanted to sell the triplex for $100,000 less than the price suggested by the property assessment, which was close to $1 million. "Such injustices" are bound to multiply, Greenbaum argues, because as we age, more and more people will find themselves under curatorship. Currently, 49% of new public coverage plans are for people with degenerative diseases. The Curateur public administers $415 million in assets, including nearly 500 real estate properties.


Accountability

In a private protective care regime, the tutor is supervised by a tutorship council made up of three people close to the incapacitated person and the Curateur public. Once a year, this tutor must report to the committee on the management of the property. "What's completely ironic is that the Curateur public is not accountable to anyone and, what's more, the files are confidential and only accessible with their agreement... This is an absurdity that must be changed at all costs! Greenbaum exclaims. This opens the door to abuse by defenseless adults, he argues, who are mostly isolated seniors, or people with intellectual disabilities or mental health problems.

 

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April 19, 2024
Zelensky Warned “Be Afraid, Clown!” As British Leader Screams Ukraine Is “Total Humiliation For West”

By: Sorcha Faal, and as reported to her Western Subscribers

A thought-provoking new Security Council (SC) report circulating in the Kremlin today first noting President Putin promised former Israeli Naftali Bennett that he would never order the killing of Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, says this promise was based upon Russian intelligence services correctly assessing that Zelensky is much more valuable to Moscow alive than dead—an assessment based on Zelensky being a Russian born and raised citizen who barely speaks Ukrainian, which is why the Ukraine Supreme Court ordered him to speak Ukrainian while conducting constitutional duties—Zelensky is a former cross dressing and penis piano playing television comedian ruling over a Ukrainian Nazi Regime whose white master race nationalists despise him—so when Polish authorities announced yesterday they arrested a man over a “Zelensky assassination plot”, it saw Security Council Deputy Chairman Dimity Medvedev most factually warning: “An attempt on the life of the chief Banderite Zelensky in Poland?...That is truly serious...It may be the first piece of evidence that people in the West have made a decision to liquidate him...Be afraid, clown!”.

In assessing the current conflict, this report notes, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov declared: “We have said that we are ready for the negotiations, but – unlike the Istanbul story – we will not make any pauses in the fighting during the negotiations...The process must go on”—the “Istanbul story” involves President Putin ordering Russian military forces to return home after Ukraine agreed to peace terms, but about which history records: “In late November, David Arakhamia, the leader of Zelensky's faction in the Verkhovna Rada and a member of the committee on national security, defense, and intelligence, stated that the military conflict in Ukraine could have ended in the spring of 2022...However, he noted that the Ukrainian authorities rejected the option of neutrality for the country...Following negotiations with Russia in Istanbul, former Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Boris Johnson, urged Kiev to avoid signing any agreements with Russia and instead focus on continuing the fight”—and is the same former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson who yesterday fearfully screamed: “Let us be clear, that if Ukraine falls, it will be not only a disaster for that innocent country...It will be a total humiliation for the West...It will be a turning point in history, the moment when the West finally loses its post-war hegemony”.

In response to British leader Johnson’s fearful scream of Western humiliation and its loss of global hegemony because of its failed proxy war against Russia using its corrupt puppet state Ukraine, this report continues, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov observed: “The escalation of this theme of strategically defeating Russia, the emphasis on the existential significance of this defeat for the future of the West, reflects not so much a bellicose mood as agony and hysteria”—true agony is evidenced by Ukrainian prisoner of war Evgeny Pogrebnyak revealing: “Our officers sent us to guaranteed death...We don’t have the resources to fight, no one wants to fight, there’s no mood to fight”—a revelation of pure agony followed by CIA Director William Burns warning: “There is a very real risk that the Ukrainians could lose on the battlefield by the end of 2024”—and was a warning joined by former CIA operations officer Bryan Dean Wright, who, in his just released open letter “The Ukraine War Is Lost, But Hollywood And DC Don’t Know It”, assessed:
On April 10, stars in Hollywood joined politicians in D.C. in demanding that Congress take up a war aid bill authorizing $60 billion in new assistance for Ukraine.
But they’re all wrong. The war is lost. In fact, 90% of people in Europe believe that to be true.

If that comes as a surprise, it shouldn’t. In late February, the Times of London published the results of a poll asking residents throughout the continent a very simple question: Can Ukraine win the war against Russia? Only 10% said yes.
So, what do they see that Hollywood stars, the White House, and leaders on Capitol Hill do not?

Three things.
First, Ukraine lacks the soldiers to win. And that’s a crisis. As Ukraine’s Commander of Joint Forces said on April 11, there are seven to 10 times more Russian soldiers than there are Ukrainians on the battlefield.
That assessment came three days after his colleague, Gen. Oleksandr Pavliuk, said that no matter how much war aid they get from America or Europe, they lack upwards of 500,000 soldiers to keep up the fight
Plus, existing Ukrainian soldiers on the front lines are demanding to be rotated out to return home to a normal life — and to deal with new addictions they’ve picked up while fighting. But Ukraine’s parliament said no to them, delivering a devastating blow to morale.
Naturally, the White House and Ukraine’s defenders will insist that while Ukraine has been bloodied, so too has Russia.
But that’s no longer relevant. The Pentagon now says that Moscow has already recovered from their previous losses, with their overall force now 15% larger than when the invasion began.

Which takes us to the second reason why 90% of Europeans think the war is lost: the West’s war machine can’t keep up.
As one of Kiev’s top military officers told Politico recently, Ukraine can’t possibly produce what they need for the battlefield and neither can the U.S. nor Europe. In fact, there’s no magic weapon that’ll solve Ukraine’s lack of manpower — that’s the foundational problem.
Nevertheless, Russia’s war machine continues churn out a shocking amount of war materiel. To the point, the Pentagon assesses that they’ve re-stocked all of their previously destroyed tanks.

In other words, Russian President Vladimir Putin has managed to weather the sanctions storm — and then some.
Which takes us to the third and final reason for why only 10% of Europeans think Ukraine can win: bad leadership.
Unfortunately for the West and their propaganda efforts, the Russian people largely view this war as one where NATO forces are the aggressors — and they mostly support Putin’s plan to stop them.
That’s not the case for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his people.
First, he continues to deal with rampant corruption, to include inside his government and military. As a Zelenskyy aid told Time Magazine back in November, whatever anti-corruption efforts are in place in Ukraine, they’re not working.

"People in the government and military are stealing like there’s no tomorrow".
Next, Zelenskyy himself is under fire for being disconnected from the true state of his military and, critics say, his heavy-handed leadership.
Taken together, perhaps that’s why an increasing number of Ukrainians think the war is lost as well.
A poll back in November showed that 42% of Ukrainians said they were willing to negotiate a peace with the Russians to end to the war.
That number is up from just 29% in January 2023.
And, frankly, the 42% are right. The outlines for a deal are still on the table; they were being negotiated back in April 2022 before Western powers scuttled them to advance President Joe Biden’s stated goal of regime change in Moscow.
But that goal is now outlandishly out of reach (and utterly reckless regardless). Instead, the world’s focus should be on peace, not advancing another $60 billion in war aid that even Ukrainian generals say won’t save them.

That’s the blunt reality that 90% of Europeans understand, even if America’s Hollywood stars and D.C. politicians do not.
In acknowledging “blunt reality”, this report details, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba warningly declared: “Ukraine does not have a ‘Plan B’ for the conflict with Russia if the US Congress refuses to approve more military aid for Kiev”—is a United States Congress military aid bill for Ukraine costing $60 billion, but only 25% of which amounting to $15 billion will actually go to Kiev, as best explained by former CEO Eric Schmidt of Google: “This weekend, the House will vote on a long-term aid package that was approved by the Senate and includes around $60 billion for Ukraine...Most of this money will remain in the U.S., with over half going directly to the Pentagon and another quarter to U.S. defense companies...The package is a win-win for the U.S. and Ukraine”.

In the theater of absurd United States Congress farce to lavish tens-of-billions of dollars on the American military industrial complex using Ukraine as the deceptive ploy, this report notes, it was revealed today: “The House Rules Committee late Thursday night advanced a package of foreign aid bills — but only with help from Democrats who, in a rare move, supported the procedural vote”—and as to how the warmongering neocon uniparty of both socialist Democrats and Republicans work their charades, Politico observed: “Speaker Mike Johnson’s sudden bid to deliver aid to Ukraine came days after fresh intelligence described the U.S. ally at a true make-or-break moment in its war with Russia....It was exactly the kind of dire assessment that President Joe Biden and the White House had spent months privately warning Johnson was inevitable”.

As it pertains to what a “dire assessment” really is, however, this report continues, the International Monetary Fund document “Fiscal Policy In The Great Election Year” released this week at the fund’s spring meetings in Washington sounded an alarm about United States unrestrained borrowed war spending: “The astronomical rise in the U.S. national debt poses significant risks to the global economy and threatens to continue fueling high inflation...Something will have to give”—an alarm of a looming American financial disaster joined today by the grim revelation: “The cost of buying a new house just hit a fresh record as mortgage rates rose to the highest level this year...Findings from Redfin show the combination of steep mortgage rates and elevated home prices has pushed the median monthly housing payment to a record $2,775 – an 11% increase from the same time last year”—all of which followed the grave news: “U.S. households are carrying a record amount of credit card debt...Credit card balances rose by $50 billion to hit a record $1.13 trillion”.

Instead of the International Monetary Fund document “Fiscal Policy In The Great Election Year” sounding an alarm about Russia, this report details, the BBC revealed: “An influential global body has forecast Russia's economy will grow faster than all of the world's advanced economies, including the United States, this year...The International Monetary Fund expects Russia to grow 3.2% this year, significantly more than the UK, France and Germany”—a revelation joined by the article “What Sanctions? Russian Seaborne Crude Exports Hit New High In 2024”, wherein it observed: “Russia's crude export market remains resilient in light of the Biden administration's repeated but unfounded claims that sanctions imposed on Moscow, particularly limiting seaborne crude shipments, are effective...In the second week of April, the volume of Russian seaborne crude exports skyrocketed to its highest level in 11 months”.

With President Donald Trump sane enough to know that the “dire assessment” issued by the International Monetary Fund about unrestrained American borrowing to fund its failed wars is extremely more vital than anything having to do with the puppet state Ukraine, this report concludes, it was no surprise to see the leftist New York Times revealed today: “As many in Europe worry about the possibility of a second presidency for Donald J. Trump that they fear could bring an end to U.S. support for Ukraine, some of Russia’s most fervent foes are taking a different tack: making nice with the Trump camp”—and was a not surprising revelation that followed President Trump posting the warning message yesterday: “Why isn’t Europe giving more money to help Ukraine?... Why is it that the United States is over $100 Billion Dollars into the Ukraine War more than Europe, and we have an Ocean between us as separation!...Why can’t Europe equalize or match the money put in by the United States of America in order to help a Country in desperate need?...As everyone agrees, Ukrainian Survival and Strength should be much more important to Europe than to us, but it is also important to us!...GET MOVING EUROPE!...In addition, I am the only one who speaks for “ME” and, while it is a total mess caused by Crooked Joe Biden and the Incompetent Democrats, if I were President, this War would have never started!”.
[Note: Some words and/or phrases appearing in quotes in this report are English language approximations of Russian words/phrases having no exact counterpart.]



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April 19, 2024 EU and US all rights reserved. Permission to use this report in its entirety is granted under the condition it is linked to its original source at WhatDoesItMean.Com. Freebase content licensed under CC-BY and GFDL.

[Note: Many governments and their intelligence services actively campaign against the information found in these reports so as not to alarm their citizens about the many catastrophic Earth changes and events to come, a stance that the Sisters of Sorcha Faal strongly disagree with in believing that it is every human being’s right to know the truth. Due to our mission’s conflicts with that of those governments, the responses of their ‘agents’ has been a longstanding misinformation/misdirection campaign designed to discredit us, and others like us, that is exampled in numerous places, including HERE.]
[Note: The WhatDoesItMean.com website was created for and donated to the Sisters of Sorcha Faal in 2003 by a small group of American computer experts led by the late global technology guru Wayne Green (1922-2013) to counter the propaganda being used by the West to promote their illegal 2003 invasion of Iraq.]
[Note: The word Kremlin (fortress inside a city) as used in this report refers to Russian citadels, including in Moscow, having cathedrals wherein female Schema monks (Orthodox nuns) reside, many of whom are devoted to the mission of the Sisters of Sorcha Faal.]
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Investing in the currency market (FOREX) involves risks.

What is the foreign exchange market (FOREX)?
FOREX (short for “foreign exchange”) is a market where investors, including banks and pension funds, exchange currencies.
For example, an investor may promise to exchange a certain number of Canadian dollars for a certain number Japanese yen promised in return by another investor.
Investors can make a profit on the FOREX market if they can correctly predict movements in the exchange rate between two currencies. Using the previous example, if the value of the yen increases, the investor receiving the yens can resell them at a higher price. Investors who trade on the FOREX market usually use an Internet platform. The platform is often operated by a dealer or by a provider on behalf of a dealer.
What are the risks?
The value of currencies is influenced by several factors, including:

 

1. political events
2. economic events
3. natural disasters

Investors who trade on the FOREX market must have enough time and knowledge to analyze a large volume of information.
Some strategies used on the foreign exchange market are complex. For example, leverage involves borrowing money to invest. Investors who use this strategy must repay the borrowed amount, even if the investment isn’t profitable. Investors can also lose more than the initial investment if the foreign exchange market doesn’t behave as predicted. It’s a risky strategy.
How to protect yourself against fraud on the foreign exchange market
The foreign exchange market isn’t for every investor.
Don’t listen to anyone who tells you otherwise. Don’t believe ads touting sure-fire methods, expensive software or training seminars and promising to turn you into an expert so you can earn quick cash.
As a general rule, be very careful if you’re guaranteed high returns without any risk. There’s no such thing as a risk-free high-return investment.
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1. Become a FOREX pro in under a month!
2. Open a no-risk account!
3. The easiest and safest way in the world to make money!
4. Get rich from the comfort of your own home!
5. This is the most lucrative market in the world!
6. Avoid taxes!

Even though some people on the Internet and social media may tout its merits, the foreign exchange market is complex, volatile and very risky.
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1. https://assets.faireconomy.media/nfs...ar392875_2.gif BenjaminIs
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Escobar: The Sahel's 'Axis Of Resistance' | ZeroHedge

Escobar: The Sahel's 'Axis Of Resistance'
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BY TYLER DURDEN
WEDNESDAY, APR 03, 2024 - 02:00 AM

Authored by Pepe Escobar via The Cradle,

The African Sahel is revolting against Western neocolonialism – ejecting foreign troops and bases, devising alternative currencies, and challenging the old multinationals. Multipolarity, after all, cannot flower without resistance paving its path...
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The emergence of Axes of Resistance in various geographies is an inextricable byproduct of the long and winding process leading us toward a multipolar world. These two things – resistance to the Hegemon and the emergence of multipolarity – are absolutely complementary.
The Axis of Resistance in West Asia – across Arab and Muslim states – now finds as its soul sister the Axis of Resistance spanning the Sahel in Africa, west to east, from Senegal, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger to Chad, Sudan, and Eritrea.

Unlike Niger, where the change in power against neocolonialism was associated with a military coup, in Senegal, the power change comes straight from the polls.
Senegal plunged itself into a new era with the landslide victory of Bassirou Diomaye Faye, 44, in nationwide elections on 24 March. A former tax inspector who had just spent a fortnight stint in jail, Faye emerged with the profile of an underdog pan-African leader to turn the ‘most stable democracy in Africa,’ under French puppet incumbent Macky Sall, upside down.

The incoming Senegalese president now joins Ibrahim Traore, 36, in Burkina Faso, Aby Ahmed, 46, in Ethiopia, Andry Rajoelina, 48, in Madagascar, as well as future superstar Julius Malema, 44, in South Africa as part of the new, young pan-African generation focused on sovereignty. In his election manifesto, Faye pledged to reclaim Senegal's sovereignty no less than eighteen times.

Geoeconomics is key to these shifts. As Senegal becomes a substantial oil and gas producer, Faye will aim to renegotiate mining and energy contracts, including the largest ones with British Petroleum (BP) and UK gold mine operator, Endeavor Mining.
Crucially, he plans to ditch the exploitative CFA franc – the French-controlled currency system used in 14 African states – even setting up a new currency as part of reshaping relations with neocolonial power France, Senegal's top trading partner. Faye, echoing Comrade Xi Jinping, wants a "win-win" partnership.
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African Sahel states
Enter the Alliance of the Sahel States
Faye has not yet been clear on whether he intends to kick the French military out of Senegal. Were that to happen, the blow to Paris would be unprecedented, as embattled Petit Roi Emmanuel Macron and the French establishment consider Senegal the key player when it comes to blockading landlocked Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso, which have already left Paris in the (Sahel) dust.

The three latter states, which have just formed an Alliance of the Sahel States (Alliance des Etats du Sahel, AES, in the original French), are not only a major Paris nightmare after serial humiliations but also a big American headache – epitomized in the spectacular breakdown of military cooperation between Washington and Nigerien capital Niamey.

The culprit, according to the US Deep State, is, of course, Russian President Vladimir Putin.
No one in the US Beltway has been paying due attention to the Russia–Africa diplomatic flurry since last year, involving all key players from the Sahel to the new African BRICS members Egypt and Ethiopia.

In sharp contrast to its prior regard of Niger as a staunch ally in the Sahel, Washington is now forced to present a calendar date to get its troops out of Niger – after a military cooperation deal was annulled. The Pentagon cannot be involved in military training in Nigerien territory anymore.

There are two key bases – in Agadez and Niamey – which the Pentagon spent over $150 million to build. Niamey was finished only in 2019 and is managed by the US military's African Command, AFRICOM.
Operational objectives are, predictably, shrouded in mystery. The Niamey base is essentially an intel center, processing data collected by MQ-9 Reaper drones. The US Air Force also uses the Dirkou Aerodrome as a base for operations in the Sahel.

Now things get exciting, because the presence of a de facto CIA drone base in Dirkou, manned by a handful of operatives, is not even acknowledged. This dark base allows intel collection everywhere in Central Africa, from west to north. Call it another classic example of former CIA director Mike Pompeo's "We Lie, We Cheat, We Steal."

There are roughly 1,000 US troops in Niger who may soon face ejection. The Americans are trying everything to stem the bleeding. Only this month, US Undersecretary of State for Africa Molly Phee visited Niger twice. Losing bases in Niger will translate into Washington following Paris in losing control of the Sahel – as Niger gets closer to Russia and Iran.

These bases are not essential to exercise surveillance over the Bab al-Mandeb; it's all about the Sahel, with drones operating on their limit and violating every sovereign air space in sight.

Incidentally, a hefty delegation from Niamey visited Moscow in January. Then, last week, Putin discussed security cooperation in phone calls with Mali's interim President, Assimi Goita, and Niger's military junta President Abdourahmane Tchiani before talking to the Republic of Congo's President Denis Nguesso.

Ivory Coast: The Empire turn-around
Pro-west puppet regimes are dwindling fast all across the African continent. The Alliance of the Sahel States – Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger – may be the vanguard of an African Axis of Resistance, but there's more, in the form of South Africa, Ethiopia, and Egypt as full BRICS members – not to mention serious candidates for the next wave of BRICS+, such as Algeria and Nigeria.

Russia, diplomatically, and China, commercially, plus the full weight of the Russia–China strategic partnership, are focused on the long game – counting on Africa as a whole as a key multipolar player. Additional evidence was provided once again during the multipolar conference last month in Moscow, where charismatic pan-African leader Kemi Seba from Benin was one of the superstars.

Pan-Eurasian diplomatic circles even allow themselves to joke about the recent hissy fits by Le Petit Roi in Paris. The utter humiliation of France in the Sahel is likely one of the drivers of Macron's chest-thumping threats to send French troops to Ukraine – who would be turned into steak tartare by the Russians in record time – and his eagerness to support Armenia's current Russophobic stunts.

Historically, the fact remains, that Africans considered the former USSR much more pliable and even supportive when it came to siphoning natural resources; that goodwill has now also been transferred to China.

As a regional integration platform, the Alliance of the Sahel States has everything it takes to become a game-changer. Senegal under Faye may eventually join, but Guinea already offers the geographical capacity to provide the alliance with credible maritime access. That will lead to the progressive extinction of the western-controlled, Nigeria-based ECOWAS.

Yet, never dismiss the Hegemon's mighty tentacles. The Pentagon master plan does not entail abandoning Africa to a multipolar Russia–China–Iran sphere of influence. Yet no one across the Sahel's Axis of Resistance buys the US 'terror threat' card anymore. There was virtually zero terror in Africa until 2011, when NATO turned Libya into a wasteland, then put boots on the ground and erected military bases across the continent.

So far, the Alliance of the Sahel States is winning the sovereignty-first information war, hands-down. But there's no question the Empire will strike back. After all, the whole game is tied to the Beltway's supreme paranoia of Russia taking over the Sahel and Central Africa.

Enter the Ivory Coast, now that Senegal may be about to start flirting with the Alliance of the Sahel States.
Ivory Coast is more strategic to Washington than, for instance, Chad because Ivorian territory is very close to the Sahel alliance. Still, Chad has already recalibrated its foreign policy, which is no longer Western-controlled and comes with a new emphasis on getting closer to Moscow.

What lies ahead for Empire? Perhaps US 'anti-terror' drones shared with Paris at the French base in the Ivory Coast to keep the Sahel alliance in check. Call it the humiliated Gallic rooster embracing the Hegemon in West Africa without receiving even the crumbs of a stale croissant.

The Language of Force: How the Police State Muzzles Our Right to Speak Truth to Power – The Burning Platform

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The Language of Force: How the Police State Muzzles Our Right to Speak Truth to Power

Guest Post by John W. Whitehead

“If the state could use [criminal] laws not for their intended purposes but to silence those who voice unpopular ideas, little would be left of our First Amendment liberties, and little would separate us from the tyrannies of the past or the malignant fiefdoms of our age. The freedom to speak without risking arrest is ‘one of the principal characteristics by which we distinguish a free nation.’”—Justice Neil Gorsuch, dissenting, Nieves v. Bartlett (2019)

Tyrants don’t like people who speak truth to power.

Cue the rise of protest laws, which take the government’s intolerance for free speech to a whole new level and send the resounding message that resistance is futile.
In fact, ever since the Capitol protests on Jan. 6, 2021, state legislatures have introduced a broad array of these laws aimed at criminalizing protest activities.

There have been at least 205 proposed laws in 45 states aimed at curtailing the right to peacefully assemble and protest by expanding the definition of rioting, heightening penalties for existing offenses, or creating new crimes associated with assembly.

Weaponized by police, prosecutors, courts, and legislatures, these protest laws, along with free speech zones, bubble zones, trespass zones, anti-bullying legislation, zero tolerance policies, hate crime laws, and a host of other legalistic maladies have become a convenient means by which to punish individuals who refuse to be muzzled.

In Florida, for instance, legislators passed a “no-go” zone law making it punishable by up to 60 days in jail to remain within 25 feet of working police and other first responders after a warning.

Yet while the growing numbers of protest laws cropping up across the country are sold to the public as necessary to protect private property, public roads or national security, they are a wolf in sheep’s clothing, a thinly disguised plot to discourage anyone from challenging government authority at the expense of our First Amendment rights.

It doesn’t matter what the source of that discontent might be (police brutality, election outcomes, COVID-19 mandates, the environment, etc.): protest laws, free speech zones, no-go zones, bubble zones, trespass zones, anti-bullying legislation, zero tolerance policies, hate crime laws, etc., aim to muzzle every last one of us.

To be very clear, these legislative attempts to redefine and criminalize speech are a backdoor attempt to rewrite the Constitution and render the First Amendment’s robust safeguards null and void.

No matter how you package these laws, no matter how well-meaning they may sound, no matter how much you may disagree with the protesters or sympathize with the objects of the protest, these proposed laws are aimed at one thing only: discouraging dissent.

This is the painful lesson being imparted with every incident in which someone gets arrested and charged with any of the growing number of contempt charges (ranging from resisting arrest and interference to disorderly conduct, obstruction, and failure to obey a police order) that get trotted out anytime a citizen voices discontent with the government or challenges or even questions the authority of the powers-that-be.

These assaults on free speech are nothing new.

As Human Rights Watch points out, “Various states have long tried to curtail the right to protest. They do so by legislating wide definitions of what constitutes an ‘unlawful assembly’ or a ‘riot’ as well as increasing punishments. They also allow police to use catch-all public offenses, such as trespassing, obstructing traffic, or disrupting the peace, as a pretext for ordering dispersals, using force, and making arrests. Finally, they make it easier for corporations and others to bring lawsuits against protest organizers.”

Journalists have come under particular fire for exercising their right to freedom of the press.
According to the U.S. Press Freedom Tracker, the criminalization of routine journalism has become a means by which the government chills lawful First Amendment activity.

Journalists have been arrested or faced dubious charges for “publishing,” asking too many questions of public officials, being “rude” for reporting during a press conference and being in the vicinity of public protests and demonstrations.

For instance, Steve Baker, a reporter for Blaze News, was charged with four misdemeanors, including trespassing and disorderly conduct charges, related to his sympathetic coverage of the Jan. 6 riots. Dan Heyman, a reporter for the Public News Service, was arrested for “aggressively” questioning Tom Price, then secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services during an encounter in the West Virginia State Capitol.

It’s gotten so bad that merely daring to question, challenge, or hesitate when a cop issues an order can get you charged with resisting arrest or disorderly conduct.
For example, Deyshia Hargrave, a language arts teacher in Louisiana, was thrown to the ground, handcuffed, and arrested for speaking out during a public comment period at a school board meeting.

Fane Lozman was arrested for alluding to government corruption during open comment time at a City Council meeting in Palm Beach County, Fla.
College professor Ersula Ore was slammed to the ground and arrested after she objected to the “disrespectful manner” shown by a campus cop who stopped her in the middle of the street and demanded that she show her ID.

Philadelphia lawyer Rebecca Musarra was arrested for exercising her right to remain silent and refusing to answer questions posed by a police officer during a routine traffic stop. (Note: she cooperated in every other way by providing license and registration, etc.)

Making matters worse, the U.S. Supreme Court issued a ruling in Nieves v. Bartlett that protects police from lawsuits by persons arrested on bogus “contempt of cop” charges (ranging from resisting arrest and interference to disorderly conduct, obstruction, and failure to obey a police order) that result from lawful First Amendment activities (filming police, asking a question of police, refusing to speak with police).

These incidents reflect a growing awareness about the state of free speech in America: you may have distinct, protected rights on paper, but dare to exercise those rights, and you risk fines, arrests, injuries, and even death.

Unfortunately, we have been circling this particular drain hole for some time now.

More than 50 years ago, U.S. Supreme Court Justice William O. Douglas took issue with the idea that merely speaking to a government representative (a right enshrined in the First Amendment) could be perceived as unlawfully inconveniencing and annoying the police.
In a passionate defense of free speech, Douglas declared:
Since when have we Americans been expected to bow submissively to authority and speak with awe and reverence to those who represent us?

The constitutional theory is that we the people are the sovereigns, the state and federal officials only our agents. We who have the final word can speak softly or angrily. We can seek to challenge and annoy, as we need not stay docile and quiet. The situation might have indicated that Colten’s techniques were ill-suited to the mission he was on, and that diplomacy would have been more effective. But at the constitutional level speech need not be a sedative; it can be disruptive.

It’s a power-packed paragraph full of important truths that the powers-that-be would prefer we quickly forget: We the people are the sovereigns. We have the final word. We can speak softly or angrily. We can seek to challenge and annoy. We need not stay docile and quiet. Our speech can be disruptive. It can invite disputes. It can be provocative and challenging. We do not have to bow submissively to authority or speak with reverence to government officials.

In theory, Douglas was right: “We the people” do have a constitutional right to talk back to the government.

In practice, however, we live in an age in which “we the people” are at the mercy of militarized, weaponized, immunized cops who have almost absolute discretion to decide who is a threat, what constitutes resistance, and how harshly they can deal with the citizens they were appointed to “serve and protect.”

As such, those who seek to exercise their First Amendment rights during encounters with the police are increasingly finding that there is no such thing as freedom of speech.

Case in point: Tony Rupp, a lawyer in Buffalo, NY, found himself arrested and charged with violating the city’s noise ordinance after cursing at an SUV bearing down on pedestrians on a busy street at night with its lights off. Because that unmarked car was driven by a police officer, that’s all it took for Rupp to find himself subjected to malicious prosecution, First Amendment retaliation, and wrongful arrest.

The case, as Jesse McKinley writes in The New York Times, is part of a growing debate over “how citizens can criticize public officials at a time of widespread reevaluation of the lengths and limits of free speech. That debate has raged everywhere from online forums and college campuses to protests over racial bias in law enforcement and the Israel-Hamas war. Book bans and other acts of government censorship have troubled some First Amendment experts. Last week, the Supreme Court heard arguments about a pair of laws — in Florida and Texas — limiting the ability of social media companies such as Facebook to ban certain content from their platforms.”

Bottom line: what the architects of the police state want are submissive, compliant, cooperative, obedient, meek citizens who don’t talk back, don’t challenge government authority, don’t speak out against government misconduct, and don’t resist.

What the First Amendment protects—and a healthy constitutional republic requires—are citizens who routinely exercise their right to speak truth to power.
Yet there can be no free speech for the citizenry when the government speaks in a language of force.

What is this language of force?
Militarized police. Riot squads. Camouflage gear. Black uniforms. Armored vehicles. Mass arrests. Pepper spray. Tear gas. Batons. Strip searches. Surveillance cameras. Kevlar vests. Drones. Lethal weapons. Less-than-lethal weapons unleashed with deadly force. Rubber bullets. Water cannons. Stun grenades. Arrests of journalists. Crowd control tactics. Intimidation tactics. Brutality. Contempt of cop charges.

This is not the language of freedom. This is not even the language of law and order.

Unfortunately, this is how the government at all levels—federal, state, and local—now responds to those who choose to exercise their First Amendment right to speak freely.

If we no longer have the right to tell a Census Worker to get off our property, if we no longer have the right to tell a police officer to get a search warrant before they dare to walk through our door, if we no longer have the right to stand in front of the Supreme Court wearing a protest sign or approach an elected representative to share our views, if we no longer have the right to protest unjust laws by voicing our opinions in public or on our clothing or before a legislative body, then we do not have free speech.

What we have instead is regulated, controlled, censored speech, and that’s a whole other ballgame.

Remember, the unspoken freedom enshrined in the First Amendment is the right to challenge government agents, think freely, and openly debate issues without being muzzled or treated like a criminal.
Americans are being brainwashed into believing that anyone who wears a government uniform—soldier, police officer, prison guard—must be obeyed without question.

Of course, the Constitution takes a far different position, but does anyone in the government even read, let alone abide by, the Constitution anymore?

The government does not want us to remember that we have rights, let alone attempt to exercise those rights peacefully and lawfully. It does not want us to engage in First Amendment activities that challenge the government’s power, reveal the government’s corruption, expose the government’s lies, and encourage the citizenry to push back against the government’s many injustices.
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Yet by muzzling the citizenry, by removing the constitutional steam valves that allow people to speak their minds, air their grievances, and contribute to a larger dialogue that hopefully results in a more just world, the government is creating a climate in which violence becomes inevitable.
When there is no First Amendment steam valve, then frustration builds, anger grows and people become more volatile and desperate to force a conversation.

As John F. Kennedy warned, “Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable.”
As I point out in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People and in its fictional counterpart The Erik Blair Diaries, the government is making violent revolution inevitable.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/wh...eaded-tomorrow

Why Is Gold Rising Now, Where Is It Headed Tomorrow?

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BY TYLER DURDEN

SATURDAY, APR 20, 2024 - 11:40 AM

Authored by Matthew Piepenburg via VonGreyerz.gold,

Needless to say, we at VON GREYERZ spend a good deal of time thinking about, well… gold.

The Complex, the Simple, the Math and the History

Year after year, and week after week, there is always a new way to examine gold price moves and decipher the obvious and not-so obvious forces which flow behind, ahead, above and below its monetary and, yes, metallic, move through time.

Today, deep into the early decades of the 21st century, and well over 100 years since the not-so immaculate conception of the Fed in the early 20th century, we could (and have) spent pages and paragraphs on key turning points in the rigged to fail history of paper vs. metallic money.

At times, this effort can and has seemed intense and even complex, with all kinds of historical facts, mathematical comparisons and “big events.”
The turning points of gold’s relationship with fiat currencies, and its role in preserving wealth, for example, are known to an admitted minority—as only about 0.5% of global financial allocations include physical gold.

Gold’s Language
Yet the need, role and direction of gold is fairly blunt, at least for those with eyes to see and ears to hear.
History, for example, has some clear things to say about paper money.
And so does gold.

From the Bretton Woods promises of 1944 and Nixon’s open and subsequent welch on the same in 1971 to the 2001 outsourcing of the American dream to China under Clinton (and the WTO) or the recent weaponization of USD in Q1 of 2022, gold has been watching, acting and speaking to those who understand her language.

The Big Question: Why Is Gold Rising Now?
And this year, with gold reaching all-time-highs, piercing resistance lines and racing toward what the Wall Street fancy lads call “price discovery,” we are understandably getting a lot of interview requests, phone calls and even emails from friends otherwise silent for years and now suddenly asking the same thing:
“Why is gold rising now?”

The Wall Street side of my odd brain, like it or not, gets all excited by such questions.

Never at a loss for words, my pen and mouth rapidly seek to wax poetic on the many answers to why gold matters forever in general, and why it is rising in particular now.

Toward that end, the list of the fancy and not-so-fancy answers to this question in recent years, articles and interviews could look as simple (or as complex) as the following list of 7 key factors:
The Malignant Seven

1. Every debt crisis leads to a currency crisis—hence: Good for gold.
2. All paper currencies, as Voltaire quipped, eventually revert to their paper value of zero, and all debt-soaked nations, as von Mises, David Hume and even Ernest Hemingway warned, debase their currencies to retain power—hence: Good for gold.
3. Rising rates (and fiscal dominance) used to “fight inflation” are too expensive for even Uncle Sam’s wallet, thus he, like all debt-soaked nations, will debase his currency to pay his own IOUs—hence: Good for gold.
4. Global central banks are dumping unloved and untrusted USTs and stacking gold at undeniably important levels—hence: Good for gold.
5. After generations of importing US inflation and being the dog wagged by the tail of the USD, the BRICS+ nations, prompted by a weaponized Greenback, are now turning their tails slowly but surely away from the USD dog—hence: Good for gold.
6. The Gulf Cooperation Council oil powers, once seduced (circa 1973) into a Petrodollar arrangement by a high-yielding UST and globally revered USD, are now openly selling oil outside of the 2024 version of that far less-yielding UST and far less-trusted USD—hence: Good for gold.
7. That legalized price-fixing sham otherwise known as the COMEX employed in 1974 to keep a permanent boot to the neck of the gold price, is running out of the physical gold needed to, well…price fix gold—hence: Good for gold.

In short, each of these themes–from sovereign (and unprecedented) debt levels, historical debt lessons, the secrets of the rate markets, global central banks dumping USTs, or the implications of changing oil markets to the OTC derivatives scam masquerading as capitalism–all DO explain why gold is rising now.

This list, of course, may be simple, but the forces, indicators, lingo, math, and trends within each theme can be admittedly complex, as each theme is worthy of its textbook rather than bullet point.

Indeed, currencies, markets, history, bonds, geopolitics, energy moves, and derivative desks are complicated little creatures.

But despite all this complexity, study, and deliberation, if you want to address the question of “why is gold rising now?”—the answer is almost too simple for those of us who wish to appear, well… “complex.”

The Too-Simple Answer to the Big Question
In other words, the simple answer—the answer that cuts through all the fog, lingo, and math of “sophisticated” financial markets–boils down to this:
GOLD IS NOT RISING AT ALL. THE USD IS JUST GETTING WEAKER AND WEAKER.

At VON GREYERZ, we never measure gold’s value in dollars, yen, euros, or any other fiat currency. We measure gold in ounces and grams.
Why?

Because history and math (as well as all the current and insane financial, geopolitical, and social events staring us straight in the eyes today) teach us not to trust a currency backed by man (or the “full faith in trust” of the UST or a Fed’s mouse-clicked currency), but instead to seek value in monetary metals created by nature.

Fake Money & Empty Promises
Once a currency loses a gold backing (a nod to Nixon), it is nothing more than the empty promise of a government now free to print and spend without a chaperone to buy votes, market bubbles, and even a Nobel Prize (i.e., what Hemingway called “temporary prosperity”) but then hand the bill and inflation to future generations (what Hemingway then called “permanent ruin”).

Gold Does Nothing
So yes, gold, as Buffet and others have quipped, “does nothing.” It just sits there and stares at you.
But while this yield-less pet rock sits there “doing nothing,” the currency by which you measure your wealth is quite busy melting like an ice cube–one day, month, and year at a time.
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Here’s to Doing Nothing: Price vs. Value
Sometimes a picture can say a thousand words and make the most complex economic topics or themes, like “price vs. value” or “store of value,” make immediate sense.

Think, for example, about a 1-ounce bar of gold just doing nothing in say… 1920.

Well, if you had 250 of those do-nothing ounces in a shoe box in 1920, which was “priced” then at around USD 20 per ounce, you could afford the average US home, then priced at $5000.

Today, however, the average price of a US home is $500,000.

So, if your grandfather left you a shoebox with 5000 crumpled Dollars inside, it would not even pay for the landscaping needed for that same house today.

But if your grandfather had instead handed you a shoebox with those same 250 singe-ounce bars of gold (today “priced” at 2300/ounce), you could buy the same average home and the landscaper too—with a nice tip for the latter.

So, do you still think those little gold bars just stared back at you, doing nothing?
After all, the shoe box with the 5000 USD inside was very busy doing one thing very well, namely: Losing its value like snow melting off a spring mountainside…
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So, which shoebox would you want to measure your wealth?
Is the one measured in fiat dollars actively losing value? Or the one measured in gold ounces “doing nothing” but retaining its value?
Sometimes the complex is that simple.
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The Next Big Question: Where’s Gold Headed Tomorrow?
The pathway to answering such a question is just as clear as the one we just traveled.

The aforementioned “Malignant Seven” are each factors which we believe will continue to push the USD down and hence gold higher, because, and to repeat: It’s not that gold will get stronger, it’s just that all fiat currencies in general, and the weaponized, distrusted and over-indebted USD in particular, get weaker.

But for those still understandably and realistically convinced that despite its myriad and almost endless flaws, the US (and its Dollar) is still, for now at least, the best horse in the glue factory, a case can be made that measured relative to other currencies (i.e., the DXY), that the USD is supreme, and that when and as financial markets weaken, investors will flock to it like a lifeboat in a tempest.

Milkshake Theory?
Such a credible view is held by very smart folks like Brent Johnson, with whom I have discussed the USD at length.

Brent’s “milkshake theory” intelligently argues that powerful demand forces from the euro dollar, SWIFT, and derivative markets, for example, create a massive, “straw-like” sucking sound for the “milky” USD, which demand will keep it strong, and send it stronger, in the seasons ahead.

He may be right.

But I think differently.
Why?

Two primary reasons stick out.

No “Straw” for the UST
First, despite the undeniably powerful demand forces at play for the USD, demand for USTs is and has been, tanking around the world since 2014. That is, foreigners don’t trust the US IOUs as much as they did before America became a debt trap.
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Ever since foreign (central bank) interest in USTs began net-selling in 2014, and gold interest began net-buying in 2010, the only buyer of last resort for US public debt has been the US Fed, and the only tool the US Fed has to purchase that debt is a mouse-clicker (“money printer”) at the Eccles Building.
Unfortunately, creating money out of thin air is not a sustainable policy but a near-term fantasy. More importantly, such a policy is inherently, and by definition: Inflationary.

My US Realpolitik Theory…
The second, and perhaps more important reason the USD’s declining future is fairly easy to see (or argue), is this:
EVEN UNCLE SAM WANTS AND NEEDS A WEAKER DOLLAR.
Why?

Because the only way out of the biggest debt hole the US has ever seen is to inflate its way out of it by debasing the currency to “save” an otherwise rotten system.

We’ve argued this for years, and the facts supporting this historically repeated pattern (and view) haven’t changed; they’ve just grown worse.
That is why it was easy to foresee that inflation would not be “transitory” despite all the useless commentary (and Fed-speak) arguing to the contrary.

That is also why it was easy to see that Powell’s “war on inflation” was a political ruse—an optics play.

Powell’s real aim was (and remains) inflationary via negative real rates (i.e., inflation higher than 10Y bond yields).
Thus, even while pursuing his “higher-for-longer” and anti-inflationary rate hikes, actual inflation, which Powell needed, was still ripping.
But he (and the BLS) was able to get around this embarrassing CPI reality by simply lying about the actual inflation…
In other words: Classic DC fork-tonguing…

China is Not Turning Japanese
But in case you still need further proof that the US wants and needs a weaker USD to fake its way out of its self-created debt disaster via an increasingly diluted USD at YOUR expense, just consider what’s happening with China.

Unbeknownst to many, Yellen has been scurrying off to Asia to convince, cajole or even threaten China into accepting a weaker USD vs the CNY.
Why?

The prior, “stronger” 40-year version of the Dollar has rendered expensive US exports (and trade deficits) unable to compete with cheaper Chinese goods.
This floating currency game was a trick the US played on Japan when I was a kid—i.e., weaken the USD to fight the then-rising Sun of Japan’s then-rising power.
But China ain’t Japan. It won’t float its currency in dollar terms.
So, what then can the US do to weaken the USD without upsetting China?

Does DC Finally Want Higher Gold Prices?
Well, as Luke Gromen once again makes beautifully clear, the easiest path forward for all parties concerned is to simply (and finally) let gold go much, much higher.
The surest and steadiest path to a weaker USD is higher gold.

Yellen’s Treasury Department could use its Exchange Stabilization Fund to buy/sell gold and other financial securities to control the USD without having to rely so much on the Fed’s now embarrassing money printer.

Gold is now a critical pivot point and tool for the US. If gold went, for example, to $4000 while CNY gold sits at 16,000, China’s central bank would have to re-rate higher in Dollar terms, pushing the CNY higher.

But such an arrangement won’t upset China, as it holds a lot more gold than the World Gold Council reports.

Rather than float the CNY in Dollar terms, China could instead float its CNY in GOLD terms.

In short: A veritable win-win for China and the US, with gold now leading the way.

Or stated otherwise, you know it’s gonna be a gold tailwind when both China and DC are seeking higher gold.

Based on the foregoing, do you still think gold does nothing?

Think harder.

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/...es-six-lessons

What Are Mises' Six Lessons?
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BY TYLER DURDEN

SATURDAY, APR 20, 2024 - 04:05 PM

Authored by Jonathan Newman via The Mises Institute,

Ludwig von Mises’s Economic Policy: Thoughts for Today and Tomorrow has become quite popular recently. The Mises Book Store has sold out of its physical copies, and the PDF, which is available online for free, has seen over 50,000 downloads in the past few days.
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This surge in interest in Mises’s ideas was started by UFC fighter Renato Moicano, who declared in a short post-fight victory speech, “I love America, I love the Constitution...I want to carry...guns. I love private property. Let me tell you something. If you care about your...country, read Ludwig von Mises and the Six Lessons of the Austrian Economic School.”

The “six lessons” he is referring to is Mises’s book, Economic Policy: Thoughts for Today and Tomorrow, which was republished by our friends in Brazil under the title “As Seis Lições” (“The Six Lessons”).

If you are interested in what Mises has to say in this book, which is a transcription of lectures he gave in Argentina in 1959, here’s a brief preview, which I hope inspires you to read the short book in full. As a side note, if you are an undergraduate student who is interested in these ideas, the Mises Institute’s next Mises Book Club is on this text (pure coincidence!).

Lecture One: Capitalism
Mises begins his first lecture with an overview of the development of capitalism out of feudalism. Businesses began “mass production to satisfy the needs of the masses” instead of focusing on producing luxury goods for the elite. These big businesses succeeded because they served the needs of a larger group of people, and their success wholly depended on their ability to give this mass of consumers what they wanted.

Despite the amazing and undeniable increases in standards of living, even for a growing population, capitalism had its detractors, including Karl Marx, who gave capitalism its name. Mises says that while Marx hated capitalism and that Marx dubbed it thusly as an attack on the system, the name is a good one
because it describes clearly the source of the great social improvements brought about by capitalism. Those improvements are the result of capital accumulation; they are based on the fact that people, as a rule, do not consume everything they have produced, that they save—and invest—a part of it.

Prosperity is the result of providing for the future—more precisely it is the result of setting aside consumption today by saving and investing resources in production. Mises says that this principle explains why some countries are more prosperous than others. When it comes to economic growth, “there are no miracles.” There is only “the application of the principles of the free market economy, of the methods of capitalism.”

Lecture Two: Socialism
In the second lecture, Mises takes a closer look at Marx’s proposed system: socialism. Economic freedom means that people can choose their careers and use their resources to accomplish their ends. Economic freedom is the basis for all other freedoms. For example, when the government seizes whole industries, like that of the printing press, it determines what will be published and what won’t and the “freedom of the press disappears.”

Mises acknowledges that there is no such thing as “perfect freedom” in a metaphysical sense. We must obey the laws of nature, especially if we intend to use and transform nature according to our ends. Even economic freedom means that there is a fundamental interdependence among individuals: “Freedom in society means that a man depends as much on other people as other people depend upon him.” This is also true for big businesses and the entrepreneurs who lead them. The true “bosses” in the market economy are not those who shout orders to the workers, but the consumers.

Socialists despise the idea of consumer sovereignty because it means allowing mistakes. In their mind, the state should play the paternalistic role of deciding what is good for everyone. Thus Mises sees no difference between socialism and a system of slavery: “The slave must do what his superior orders him to do, but the free citizen—and this is what freedom means—is in a position to choose his way of life.” In capitalism, this freedom makes it possible for people to be born into poverty but then achieve great success as they provide for their fellow man. This kind of social mobility is impossible under systems like feudalism and socialism.

Mises ends this lecture with a short explanation of the economic calculation critique of socialism. When the private ownership of the means of production is prohibited, then economic calculation is made impossible. Without market prices for factors, we cannot economize production and provide for the needs of the masses, no matter who oversees the socialist planning board. The result is mass deprivation and chaos.

Lecture Three: Interventionism
Interventionism describes a situation in which the government “wants to interfere with market phenomena.” Each intervention involves an abrogation of the consumer sovereignty Mises had explained in the two previous lectures.

The government wants to interfere to force businessmen to conduct their affairs in a different way than they would have chosen if they had obeyed only the consumers. Thus, all the measures of interventionism by the government are directed toward restricting the supremacy of consumers.

Mises gives an example of a price ceiling on milk. While those who enact such an intervention may intend to make milk more affordable for poorer families, there are many unintended consequences: increased demand, decreased supply, non-price rationing in the form of long queues at shops that sell milk, and, importantly, grounds for the government to intervene in new ways now that their initial intervention has not achieved its intended purpose. So, in Mises’s example, he traces through the new interventions, like government rationing, price controls for cattle food, price controls for luxury goods, and so on until the government has intervened in virtually every part of the economy, i.e., socialism.

After providing some historical examples of this process, Mises gives the big picture. Interventionism, as a “middle-of-the-road policy,” is a road toward totalitarianism.

Lecture Four: Inflation
There can be no secret way to the solution of the financial problems of a government; if it needs money, it has to obtain the money by taxing its citizens (or, under special conditions, by borrowing it from people who have the money). But many governments, we can even say most governments, think there is another method for getting the needed money; simply to print it.

If the government taxes citizens to build a new hospital, then the citizens are forced to reduce their spending, and the government “replaces” their spending with its own. If, however, the government uses newly printed money to finance the construction of the hospital, then there is no replacement of spending, but an addition, and “prices will tend to go up.”

Mises, per usual, explodes the idea of a “price level” that rises and falls, as if all prices change simultaneously and proportionally. Instead, prices rise “step by step.” The first receivers of new money increase their demands for goods, which provides new income to those who sell those goods. Those sellers may now increase their demands for goods. This explains the process by which some prices and some people’s incomes increase before others. The result is a “price revolution,” in which prices and incomes rise in a stepwise fashion, starting with the origin of the new money. In this way, new money alters the distribution of incomes and the arrangement of real resources throughout the economy, creating “winners” and “losers.”

The gold standard offers a strict check against the inflationist tendencies of governments. In such a system, the government cannot create new units of money to finance its spending, so it must resort to taxation, which is notably unpopular. Fiat inflation, however, is subtle and its effects are complex and delayed, which makes it especially attractive to governments that can wield it.

In this lecture, Mises also executes a thorough smackdown of Keynes and Keynesianism, but I’ll leave that for readers to enjoy.

Lecture Five: Foreign Investment
Mises returns to a principle he introduced in the first lecture, that economic growth stems from capital accumulation. The differences in standards of living between countries are not attributable to technology, the qualities of the workers, or the skills of the entrepreneurs, but to the availability of capital.

One way that capital may be accumulated within a country is through foreign investment. The British, for example, provided much of the capital that was required to develop the rail system in the United States and Europe. This provided mutual benefit for both the British and the countries on the receiving end of this investment. The British earned profits through their ownership of the rail systems and the receiving countries, even with a temporary “unfavorable” balance of trade, obtained the benefits of the rail system including expanded productivity which, over time, allowed them to purchase stock in the rail companies from the British.

Foreign investment allows the capital accumulation in one country to speed up the development of other countries, all without a one-sided sacrifice on the part of the country providing the investment. Wars (especially world wars), protectionism, and domestic taxation destroy this mutually beneficial process. When countries impose tariffs or expropriate the capital that belongs to foreign investors, they “prevent or to slow down the accumulation of domestic capital and to put obstacles in the way of foreign capital.”

Lecture Six: Politics and Ideas
The classical liberal ideas of the philosophers of the eighteenth and early-nineteenth centuries helped create the constrained governments and economic freedom that led to the explosion of economic growth Mises discussed in the first lecture. But the emergence of minority “pressure groups,” what we would call “special interest groups” today, directed politicians away from classical liberal ideals and toward interventionism. The groups that would benefit from various interventions lobby the government to grant them favors like monopoly privileges, taxes on competition (including tariffs), and subsidies. And, as we have seen, this interventionist spiral tends toward socialism and totalitarianism. The “resurgence of the warlike spirit” in the twentieth century brought about world wars and exacerbated the totalitarian trends even in the once exemplary nations.

The concomitant rise in government expenditures made fiat money and inflation too tempting. The wars and special projects advocated by the pressure groups were expensive, and so budget constraints were discarded in favor of debasement.

This, Mises says, explains the downfall of civilization. He points to the Roman Empire as an example:
What had taken place? What was the problem? What was it that caused the disintegration of an empire that, in every regard, had attained the highest civilization ever achieved before the eighteenth century? The truth is that what destroyed this ancient civilization was something similar, almost identical to the dangers that threaten our civilization today: on the one hand, it was interventionism, and on the other hand, inflation.

Mises finds hope in the fact that the detractors of economic freedom, like Marx and Keynes, do not represent the masses or even a majority. Marx, for example, “was not a man from the proletariat. He was the son of a lawyer. … He was supported by his friend Friedrich Engels, who—being a manufacturer—was the worst type of ‘bourgeois,’ according to socialist ideas. In the language of Marxism, he was an exploiter.”

This implies that the fate of civilization depends on a battle of ideas, and Mises thought that good ideas would win:
I consider it a very good sign that, while fifty years ago, practically nobody in the world dared to say anything in favor of a free economy, we have now, at least in some of the advanced countries of the world, institutions that are centers for the propagation of a free economy.

May we continue Mises’s project and fulfill his hope. What the world needs is “Menos Marx, Mais Mises.”

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitic...ation-movement

Escobar: Welcome To The 'De-Westernization Movement'
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BY TYLER DURDEN

FRIDAY, SEP 15, 2023 - 11:40 PM

Authored by Pepe Escobar via The Cradle,

In Vladivostok, the Russian Far East rises
In Vladivostok this week, the 'Russian Far East' was on full, glorious display. Russia, China, India, and the Global South were all there to contribute to this trade, investment, infrastructure, transportation, and institutional renaissance.

Russian President Vladimir Putin opened and closed his quite detailed address to the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok with a resounding message: “The Far East is Russia’s strategic priority for the entire 21st century.”

And that’s exactly the feeling one would have prior to the address, interacting with business executives mingling across the stunning forum grounds at the Far Eastern Federal University (opened only 11 years ago), with the backdrop of the more than four kilometer-long suspension bridge to Russky Island across the Eastern Bosphorus strait.

The development possibilities of what is in effect Russian Asia, and one of the key nodes of Asia-Pacific, are literally mind-boggling. Data from the Ministry for the Development of the Russian Far East and the Arctic - confirmed by several of the most eye-catching panels during the Forum - list a whopping 2,800 investment projects underway, 646 of which are already up and running, complete with the creation of several international Advanced Special Economic Zones (ASEZ) and the expansion of the Free Port of Vladivostok, home to several hundred small and midsize enterprises (SMEs)
.
All that goes way beyond Russia’s “pivot to the East" which was announced by Putin in 2012, two years before the Maidan events in Kiev. For the rest of the planet, not to mention the collective west, it is impossible to understand the Russian Far East magic without being on the spot - starting with Vladivostok, the charming, unofficial capital of the Far East, with its gorgeous hills, striking architecture, verdant islands, sandy bays and of course the terminal of the legendary Trans-Siberian Railway.

What Global South visitors did experience – the collective west was virtually absent from the Forum – was a work in progress in sustainable development: a sovereign state setting the tone in terms of integrating large swathes of its territory to the new, emerging, polycentric geoeconomic era. Delegations from ASEAN (Laos, Myanmar, Philippines) and the Arab world, not to mention India and China, totally understood the picture.

Welcome to the ‘de-westernization movement’
In his speech, Putin stressed how the rate of investment in the Far East is three times the Russian region average; how the Far East is only 35 percent explored, with unlimited potential for natural resource industries; how the Power of Siberia and Sakhalin-Khabarovsk-Vladivostok gas pipelines will be connected; and how by 2030, liquified natural gas (LNG) production in the Russian Arctic will triple.

In a broader context, Putin made clear that “the global economy has changed and continues to change; the west, with its own hands, is destroying the system of trade and finance that it itself created.” It is no wonder then that Russia’s trade turnover with Asia-Pacific grew by 13.7 percent in 2022, and by another 18.3 percent in just the first half of 2023.

Cue to Presidential Business Rights Commissioner Boris Titov showing how this reorientation away from the “static” west is inevitable. Although western economies are well-developed, they are already “too heavily invested and sluggish,” says Titov:
“In the East, on the other hand, everything is booming, moving forward rapidly, developing rapidly. And this applies not only to China, India, and Indonesia, but also to many other countries. They are the center of development today, not Europe, our main consumers of energy are there, finally.”

It is quite impossible to do justice to the enormous scope and absorbing discussions featured in the major panels in Vladivostok. Here is just a taste of the key themes.

A Valdai session focused on the accumulated positive effects of Russia's "pivot to the East," with the Far East positioned as the natural hub for swinging the entire Russian economy to Asian geoeconomics. Yet there are problems, of course, as stressed by Wang Wen from the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University. Vladivostok’s population is only 600,000. the Chinese would say that for such a city, infrastructure is poor, “so it needs more infrastructure as fast as it can. Vladivostok could become the next Hong Kong. The way is to set up SEZs like in Hong Kong, Shenzhen and Pudong.” Not hard, as “the non-western world very much welcomes Russia.”

Wang Wen could not but highlight the breakthrough represented by the Huawei Mate 60 Pro: “Sanctions are not such a bad thing. They only strengthen the “de-westernization movement,” as it is informally referred to in China.

China by mid-2022 slipped into was defined by Wang as “silent mode” in terms of investment for fear of US secondary sanctions. But now that’s changing, and frontier regions once again are regarded as key to trade ties. In the Free Port of Vladivostok, China is the number one investor with its $11 billion commitment.

Fesco is the largest maritime transportation company in Russia – and reaches China, Japan, Korea and Vietnam. They are actively engaged in the connection of Southeast Asia to the Northern Sea Route, in cooperation with Russian Railways. The key is to set up a network of logistic hubs. Fesco executives describe it as “titanic shift in logistics.”

Russian Railways in itself is a fascinating case. It operates, among others, the Trans-Baikal, which happens to be the world’s busiest rail line, connecting Russia from the Urals to the Far East. Chita, smack on the Trans-Siberian - a top manufacturing center 900 km east of Irkutsk - is considered the capital of Russian Railways.

And then there’s the Arctic. The Arctic is home to 80 percent of Russia’s gas, 20 percent of its oil, 30 percent of its territory, 15 percent of GDP, but consists of only 2.5 million people. The development of the Northern Sea Route requires top-notch high-tech, such as a constantly evolving feet of icebreakers.

Liquid and stable as vodka
All that transpired in Vladivostok connects directly to the much-ballyhooed visit by North Korea’s Kim Jong-un. The timing was a beauty; after all the Primorsky Krai region in the Far East is an immediate neighbor to the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK).

Putin emphasized that Russia and the DPRK are developing several joint projects in transportation, communications, logistics, and naval sectors.
So much more than military and space matters amicably discussed by Putin and Kim, the heart of the matter is geoeconomics: a trilateral Russia-China-DPRK cooperation, with the distinct outcome of increased container traffic transiting through the DPRK and the tantalizing possibility of DPRK rail reaching Vladivostok and then connecting deeper into Eurasia via the Trans-Siberian line.

And if that was not ground-breaking enough, much was discussed in several round tables about the International North South Transportation Corridor (INTSC). The Russia-Kazakhstan-Turkmenistan-Iran corridor will be finalized in 2027 – and that will be a key branch of the INTSC.

In parallel, New Delhi and Moscow are itching to start the Eastern Maritime Corridor (EMC) as soon as possible - that’s the official denomination of the Vladivostok-Chennai route. Sarbananda Sonowal, the Indian minister of ports, shipping and waterways, promoted an Indo-Russian workshop on the EMC in Chennai from October 30 to discuss “the smooth and swift operationalization” of the corridor.

I had the honor of being part of one of the crucial panels, Greater Eurasia: Drivers for the Formation of an Alternative International Monetary and Financial System.

A key conclusion is that the stage is set for a common Eurasia payment system - part of the Eurasian Economic Union's (EAEU) draft declaration for 2030-2045 – against the backdrop of Hybrid War and “toxic currencies” (83 per cent of EAEU transactions already bypass them).

Yet the debate remains fierce when it comes to a basket of national currencies, a basket of goods, payment and settlement structures, the use of blockchain, a new pricing system, or setting up a single stock exchange. Is it all possible, technically? Yes, but that would take 30 or 40 years to take shape, as the panel stressed.

As it stands, a single example of challenges ahead is enough. The idea of coming up with a basket of currencies for an alternative payment system did not gather steam at the BRICS summit because of India’s position.

Aleksandr Babakov, deputy chairman of the Duma, evoked the discussions between the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and Iran on trade financing in national currencies, including a road map to look for best ways in legislation to help attract investment. That’s also being discussed with private companies. The model is the success of the China-Russia trade turnover.

Andrey Klepach, chief economist at VEB, quipped that the best currency is “liquid and stable. Like vodka.” So we’re not there yet. Two-thirds of trade are still carried in dollars and euros; the Chinese yuan accounts for only three percent. India refuses to use the yuan. And there’s a huge Russia-India imbalance: as much as 40 billion rupees are sitting in Russian exporters accounts with nowhere to go. A priority is to improve trust in the ruble: it should be accepted by both India and China. And a digital ruble is becoming a necessity.

Wang Wen concurred, saying there’s not enough ambition. India should export more to Russia and Russia should invest more in India.

In parallel, as pointed out by Sohail Khan, the deputy secretary-general of the SCO, India now controls no less than 40 percent of the global digital payment market. It had a share of zero only seven years ago. That accounts for the success of its unified payment system (UPI).

A BRICS-EAEU panel expressed the hope that a joint summit of these two key multilateral organizations will happen next year. Once again, it’s all about trans-Eurasian transportation corridors – as two-thirds of world turnover will soon follow the eastern track connecting Russia to Asia.

On BRICS-EAEU-SCO, top Russian companies are already integrated into BRICS business, from Russian Railways and Rostec to big banks. A big problem remains how to explain the EAEU to India – even as the EAEU structure is deemed to be a success. And watch this space: a free trade agreement with Iran will be clinched soon.

At the last panel in Vladivostok, Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova – the contemporary counterpart of Hermes, the messenger of the Gods – pointed out how the G20 and BRICS summits set the stage for Putin’s speech at the Eastern Economic Forum.

That required “fantastic strategic patience.”

Russia, after all, “never supported isolation” and “always advocated partnership.” The frantic activity in Vladivostok has just demonstrated how the “pivot to Asia” is all about enhanced connectivity and partnership in a new polycentric era.

https://mises.org/wire/eurozone-exam...d-keynesianism

The Eurozone: An Example of Failed Keynesianism

 

1. https://cdn.mises.org/styles/slidesh...?itok=jFoBn6TZ

TAGS Money and Banks

Daniel Lacalle

The eurozone economic figures show the risk of stagflation, and the short-term impact is clear in Germany and France, but it extends to the rest of the countries.

Why has the eurozone lagged the United States and other developed economies in recent years? The enormous stimulus packages, including the 2009 Growth and Job Plan, the Juncker Plan, the New Green Deal, and the Europe Next Generation, are proving that central planning only delivers poor growth, elevated debt, and now high inflation.

The ECB’s latest figures show that monetary aggregates are starting to moderate, but inflation remains high and, in the latest print, is rising.

Consensus estimates of GDP growth in 2023 stand at 0.6% with inflation above 5%, according to Bloomberg, and it is important to remember that core inflation continues to be three times higher than the target of price stability.

Lagarde’s inflation messages seem clear, but the ECB’s target must be met. and interest rate increases are here to stay, although the market estimates that the ECB will start lowering interest rates by 2024. The problem is that the eurozone is only betting on rate hikes to moderate inflation, while governments continue to spend billions of euros on so-called Next Generation Funds and deficits that mean more inflation or taxes in the future.

We should not be surprised that credit in the eurozone is falling along with monetary aggregates. The entire burden of monetary normalization is falling on the productive sector, families, and businesses, while many governments continue to increase deficit spending.

The figures for growth in the eurozone are very poor, but they are even worse when we take into account that Ireland’s progress, as shown by Eurostat, almost entirely explains the most recent upward revision. What does the eurozone do? Instead of incentivizing the economic freedom model, it subsidizes the intervened ones.

The economy is expected to grow slightly in 2023, plagued by high inflation, rising interest rates, and lower exports. The Next Generation funds have no discernible marginal or multiplier effect.

The weak state of manufacturing and service indices confirms this fear. PMIs show a widespread negative trend in new orders and investment.
Hiking rates is not enough when the ECB’s balance sheet is 52% of GDP. Harmonized inflation fell to 5.3% in July from 5.5% in June, due to the base effect and the decline in commodities. However, commodities have been bouncing since May, when the market started discounting the end of rate hikes.

We cannot ignore the fact that the data on eurozone inflation expectations is rising.

The ECB raised its benchmark interest rate to 4.25% from 4.00%, a cumulative increase since July 2022 of 425 basis points. I believe it will end in 2023 at 4.43% and in 2024 at 3.68%, but without finishing the inflation battle.

Despite trillions in deficit and growth central plans, the eurozone faces an environment of poor growth and high inflation with strong headwinds, led by an increase in energy costs and the lagging effect that rising rates can generate, as interest rate increases do not show their full effect on the economy until 12–18 months after they are completed, according to the ECB’s estimates.

We would also remember the EU’s technological problems. While the US and China are leading global technological advances, it seems that the European Union has lagged in growth and investment, but above all in patents and technology companies. The EU does not have technology giants that can challenge the global leaders, and one of the factors that worries us most is the very high level of taxation. It works against the opportunities for creating world-class tech giants.

According to the European Commission itself, taxation in Europe remains at a very high level for capital (27.8%) and labor (21%), two key factors for the development of technology companies. Such high taxation jeopardizes innovation, the attraction of investment, and the improvement of human capital.

If there is a lesson for the United States and the rest of the world, it is that massive central planning does not deliver growth and that governments do not lead economic development and innovation. The eurozone would benefit from a supply-side, bottom-up approach to the economy. Unfortunately, it is doubling down on central planning.

Author:
Daniel Lacalle

Daniel Lacalle, PhD, economist and fund manager, is the author of the bestselling books Freedom or Equality (2020),Escape from the Central Bank Trap (2017), The Energy World Is Flat (2015), and Life in the Financial Markets (2014).
He is a professor of global economy at IE Business School in Madrid.
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https://wolfstreet.com/2023/09/16/fe...gets-refilled/

Fed’s Balance Sheet Liabilities: RRPs Plunge, Reserves Rise after Bank Panic, Currency in Circulation Dips after Pandemic Spike, TGA Gets Refilled
by Wolf Richter • Sep 16, 2023 •

QT’s impact on the Fed’s liabilities, and the massive movements between them.
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

The daily measure of Overnight Reverse Repurchase agreements (ON RRPs) at the Fed have plunged to $1.40 trillion as of Friday. This is down by 45%, or by $1.152 trillion, from the one-day-wonder peak on December 31, 2022.

Under these RRPs, the Fed takes in cash and hands out collateral (Treasury securities). RRPs are a liability for the Fed because they’re cash that the Fed owes its counterparties. The counterparties are mostly US money market funds, but also banks, and government-sponsored enterprises (Federal Home Loan Banks, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, etc.). These counterparties use ON RRPs to park their extra cash risk-free at the Fed, and earn interest.

As of the rate hike in July, the Fed pays them 5.3% in interest.

This 5.3% is less than what the Fed pays banks on their reserve balances (5.4%), so banks don’t use RRPs much. For money market funds (MMFs), ON RRPs are a good risk-free deal, but they pay a little less interest than Treasury bills (around 5.5%). And MMFs have been yanking their cash out of these RRPs, to load up on T-bills.
https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/up...repo-daily.png

Which Money Market Funds?
The Fed started paying interest on RRPs in the spring of 2021, minuscule rates of interest at the time, at first 0.05% APR and then 0.1% APR because policy rates were near 0%. It did so because there was so much liquidity in the financial system as a result of the then still ongoing QE, chasing after everything, that T-bill yields dipped into the negative.

Treasury money market funds that primarily invest in T-bills were threatened by these negative yields; they could cause the MMFs to “break the buck” where the Net Asset Value of the fund drops below $1, which could trigger a run on the fund, forced selling by the fund, the collapse of a fund, contagion from there, etc., etc., you know the financial panic routine.

The Fed’s solution was to pay a little interest on RRPs, and MMFs flocked to them, and with each rate hike starting in March 2022, the Fed paid more on RRPs.

In addition, MMFs switched some of their cash that they need for liquidity reasons from their bank accounts to RRPs, since banks paid 0% interest, and even now are stingy with the interest they pay. This shift from banks to RRPs via the MMFs caused the banks’ reserve balances to fall starting when QE ended. More in a moment.

The government’s Office of Financial Research publishes RRP balances by money-market funds on a monthly basis, unfortunately with a big delay. The most recent release was for July 31, by which time MMF participation in RRPs had dropped to $1.75 trillion.

The biggest providers of money market funds lead the list: About 29% of these RRPs were with Fidelity’s funds ($508 billion); 10% were with Vanguard’s funds ($172 billion); 8.4% were with JP Morgan’s funds ($148 billion); and 7.9% were with Blackrock’s funds ($138 billion):
https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/up...MF-monthly.png

Foreign official RRPs and ON RRPs.
The Fed also offers RRPs to “foreign official” accounts, where other central banks can park their dollar cash.

The weekly balance sheet of the Fed – the latest was released Thursday afternoon – shows only balances as of Wednesday every week, not daily balances. So these are balances through Wednesday, which have not yet captured the las two days of the plunge in RRPs.

Foreign official RRPs dropped to $289 billion, down by $94 billion, or by 25%, from the peak in January 2023 (green line).

The chart also shows the ON RRPs (red line) as of Thursday’s balance sheet ($1.546 trillion). Since then, ON RRPs have plunged by another $145 billion, which is reflected in the daily chart above.

Both combined – ON RRPs and foreign official RRPs – have plunged by $803 billion, or by 33%, from the weekly Wednesday peak last September:
https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/up...Ps-foreign.png

Rising/falling reserves & RRPs don’t negate effects of QE/QT. They’re part of those effects.
The fact that liabilities (mainly reserves and RRPs) rose during QE in equal measure with assets did not negate the effects of QE. And the fact that liabilities have fallen during QT in equal measure with assets does not negate the effects of QT. That’s just how a balance sheet works – it always stays in “balance.”

Massive shifts among the liabilities on the Fed’s balance sheet.
Every balance sheet has assets, liabilities, and capital, where: Assets = liabilities + capital. The Fed’s capital is limited by Congress, and it changes only in small ways. But its assets and liabilities change massively.
On the asset side of the balance sheet, QT is proceeding at a record pace; the Fed has shed $867 billion in assets since the peak, now down to $8.099 trillion.

On the liabilities-and-capital side, the Fed has shed $868 billion in liabilities since the peak in April, now down to $8.056 trillion; and it increased its capital by $1 billion to $43 billion.

But there have also been massive shifts between liabilities, with some rising and others falling that we’ll get to in a moment.
The four major liabilities:

 

1. RRPs (discussed above)
2. Reserves
3. Currency in circulation (paper dollars)
4. Treasury General Account (TGA), the government checking account.

https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/up...9-16-total.png

Reserves: $3.33 trillion, -$940 billion since Dec 2021 peak. But +$337 billion since the March bank panic.

Reserves are cash that banks put on deposit at the Fed, and are a form of instant liquidity in the banking system. Reserves are a liability on the Fed’s balance sheet because the Fed borrowed this cash from the banks. Since the rate hike in July, the Fed pays banks 5.4% in interest on their reserve balances.

Banks, on their own balance sheets, don’t call them “reserves,” but “interest-earning cash,” or similar. They’re assets for the banks. They use their reserve accounts at the Fed to transfer cash between banks, to do business with the Fed, to have liquid cash available when needed, and to earn 5.4% interest.

Reserves have risen since the bank panic in March, after falling sharply for the prior 15 months.

QT is draining liquidity from the financial system, and reserves are one place where the drainage showed up. But the March bank panic – Silvergate Capital, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and First Republic toppled – caused banks to increase their liquidity, and they put some of this cash on deposit at the Fed as reserves.

QE ended in March 2022. QT started in July 2022. Note the sharp drop in reserves from December 2021 until the March 2023 bank panic, and then cash started flowing back into reserves:
https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/up...6-reserves.png

Reserves plus RRPs: $5.17 trillion; -$1.01 trillion from Dec 2021 peak.
Since there are big shifts of cash between reserves and RRPs via the MMFs, it makes conceptual sense to look at them together to see the combined amount of liquidity that is getting drained out of the financial system via QT.

The pandemic-era QE had inflated the combined total of Reserves plus RRPs by $4.2 trillion, to $6.18 trillion in December 2021.
Since that peak, the combined balance of RRPs and reserves has dropped by $1.01 trillion, or by 16%, to $5.17 trillion
https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/up...s-reserves.png

Currency in circulation dipped to $2.33 trillion.
Currency in circulation reflects the paper dollars in wallets, under mattresses, and in safes in the US and globally. Various studies show that the majority is overseas.

The amount of currency in circulation is demand-based through the US banking system. If customers demand paper dollars, the banking system must have enough on hand. Foreign banks have relationships with US banks to get dollars for their customers.

These “Federal Reserve Notes,” as they’re called, are a liability for the Fed. Banks get those paper dollars from the Fed in exchange for collateral, such as Treasury securities, which are assets on the Fed’s balance sheet.

That’s one reason why the Fed’s assets increase when there is no QE and no QT: demand for currency must be met by banks, and in return banks must post collateral at the Fed for those amounts, which are assets for the Fed, and its assets rise in part with the rise of currency in circulation.
Before QE, currency in circulation was the primary driver of the increase in assets on the Fed’s balance sheet through the collateral (Treasury securities, etc.) that banks have to post to get these paper dollars.

Currency as payment methods for legitimate purchases is increasingly being replaced by electronic payment systems (credit cards, debit cards, ACH, Zelle, PayPal, etc.). But demand for currency was huge during the pandemic. When there is fear of a crisis, demand for paper dollars surges: before Y2K, after the Lehman bankruptcy, and massively starting in early 2020.

Demand for currency in circulation has now stabilized, as some people return their paper dollars to the bank to then earn 5% interest on their electronic dollars.

Since the peak in early June, currency in circulation has dipped by $14 billion, to $2.33 trillion.
https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/up...irculation.png

Treasury General Account (TGA): $537 billion.
The Treasury Department is unleashing a tsunami of new Treasury notes and bonds to fund the government deficits and to raise the balance of the TGA account, the Treasury Department’s checking account a the Fed.

The amount in the TGA account is a liability for the Fed – money that the Fed owes the government.

The Treasury Department said that it wants to end Q3 with $750 billion in the TGA. September 15 was the day estimated taxes were due, and so over the next two weeks, those tax receipts will show up in the TGA and push up the balance. As of the Fed’s balance sheet on Thursday, the amount in the TGA was $537 billion.
https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/up...TGA-weekly.png

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https://wolfstreet.com/2023/09/11/in...r-term-yields/

Investment-Grade Corporate Giants Suddenly Sell Huge Amounts of Debt to Front-Run even Higher Long-Term Yields
by Wolf Richter • Sep 11, 2023 •

Corporate issuance further pressures longer-term Treasury yields, amid expectations of bad inflation “surprises.” Share buybacks getting a lot more expensive, but no problem either.

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.
Why would corporate giants suddenly pile into the corporate bond market with large-scale new issuance in September at these high interest rates? Why not wait for that Fed pivot and rate cuts that must be coming any moment, no?

Because they want to lock in these interest rates that they can still get, before rates rise even further. These companies are not betting on rate cuts. A year ago, they bet on rate cuts that didn’t come. Now they bet on higher for longer – on higher inflation and higher long-term interest rates for longer – and they’re issuing bonds at a red-hot pace in September before rates go even higher.

Today’s shining example is T-Mobile US [TMUS] which announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary T-Mobile USA, plans to sell a pile of new debt, with the amounts and rates still left blank in the filing. According to sources cited by Bloomberg, the senior unsecured notes would amount to $2 billion, including unsecured senior notes with 10-year and 30-year terms.

The 30-year notes, due in 2054, are expected to price at about 1.63 percentage points above Treasury securities, according to Bloomberg, citing sources familiar with the deal. A spread of 1.63 percentage points would price the bonds at a yield of around 6%!

A survey of investment bankers who underwrite corporate debt sales forecast $120 billion of US debt to be issued in September, according to Bloomberg.

That would be about 34% higher than in September 2022, when $89 billion in investment grade debt was issued, according to SIFMA (Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association).
Today’s 10-year Treasury yield, at 4.30%, is a full percentage point higher than last year’s at this time. But it’s at these much higher yields this September that debt issuance is taking off.

On Tuesday after the Labor Day weekend, at least 20 investment-grade companies sold over $36 billion in new debt in the US, the biggest day this year, ahead of May 16 ($33 billion) and January 3 ($34 billion), according to Bloomberg.

Companies that issued bonds in the US after Labor Day included big deals by BHP Billiton with $4.75 billion of senior unsecured notes in a five-part deal, including 30-year notes; and Philip Morris International with $2.35 billion of senior unsecured notes, whose longest-dated portion were 10-year notes.

And in September 2022, there was hesitation by companies in issuing new debt as everyone was waiting for the Fed to slash rates again. Today, this scenario appears to be on the back burner, and companies are locking in the rates they can get now for the long term, including for 30 years.
“I would expect companies to be trying to get ahead of any economic data that sends US Treasury yields higher,” Winnie Cisar, global head of credit strategy at CreditSights, told Bloomberg. “I think we will see a front-loaded issuance month.”

All eyes are on the upcoming CPI report on Wednesday, and everyone knows it’s going to be a bad “surprise,” with more bad inflation surprises to be followed later in the year. We’ve outlined these coming second-half “surprises” back in August and in July: The base effect, energy prices that bounced off the steep plunge, and the end of the ridiculous 12-month-long adjustments to health insurance CPI, in addition to other elements that add heat to the inflation numbers. And the core services PCE price index, which the Fed keeps a close eye on, has already shot higher. Those inflation “surprises” could drive Treasury yields higher.

So now is a good time to sell lots of debt to front-run the risk of even higher rates later? Even if the Fed maintains its short-term policy rates, long-term yields will be under pressure from the tsunami of issuance by the Treasury Department, the pileup of corporate bond issuance, and this scenario that inflation and long-term yields will be higher for much longer.

T-Mobile joined the crowd, locking in the current rates before they go even higher. The company had $6.6 billion in cash at the end of June, and $76 billion in short and long-term debt.

Moody’s today rated the unsecured notes Baa2, which is in the lower segment of investment grade, two notches above junk (my cheat sheet of corporate bond credit ratings).

Fitch today rated the notes BBB+, three notches above junk, and expects EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) – a measure of cash flow – to increase “to more than $30 billion by 2024 which offsets increased debt due to spectrum acquisitions and share repurchases.”

The company said in the filing that it intends to use the net proceeds from the debt sale “for general corporate purposes, which may include among other things, share repurchases, any dividends declared by Parent’s Board of Directors, and refinancing of existing indebtedness on an ongoing basis.” It’s also expanding its 5G network.

In July last year, T-Mobile, which had long been junk-rated, was anointed with a first investment-grade rating, and by August all three major US ratings agencies rated it investment grade, and has been upgraded since then. In terms of taking on debt, the investment-grade rating was manna from heaven.

The company is a relative newcomer to share buybacks, but now as an investment-grade company, it’s massively into it. It started in Q3 2022. Over the past four quarters through Q2, 2023, T-Mobile blew $11.2 billion in cash on share buybacks. In September 2022, the company had authorized $14 billion in share repurchases through Q4, 2023. Last week it announced an additional $19 billion in a “shareholder return program,” including dividends. And this program could reach up to $60 billion, depending on additional authorizations by 2025.

And now it’s borrowing at rates at up to 6% to buy back its own shares. This follows a pile of debt issuances in May, when it sold $3.5 billion in new debt. A $1.25 billion portion of this debt were 30-year notes, due in 2054, that were priced at a yield of 5.75%. Rising interest rates no problem.

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A great summary of the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGEI) now competing and probably replacing the COMEX and the LBMA for #gold price discovery, also the main vehicle of de-dollarization by the BRICS+ through the already trading #gold convertible #PetroYuan oil contract.

Many Western investors are dismissing the fact that #gold is already being used in global trade settlement for #oil, and by default displacing the #Petrodollar that has been the glue of the debt based monetary system the world has been working under since President Nixon launched the FIAT currency system in 1973.

Below you will find a cautionary warning from the fall of 2017 by the Chairman of the COMEX about how "people are dismissing some of these events until one day we will see a huge move", the SGEI was setup in 2014 and the #PetroYuan started trading in 2018 but yet in the West #gold became a #PetRock.
https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/sy...f41yI4Y1LB-9I0
The Shanghai International Gold Exchange and Its Role in De-Dollarization
gainesvillecoins.com • 9 min read

This article is a primer on the Chinese gold market, more specifically the Shanghai International Gold Exchange (SGEI). The SGEI facilitates “offshore” gold trading in renminbi and can play a crucial role in de-dollarization, as it allows countries to use renminbi as a trade currency that can be converted into gold without affecting China’s balance of payments. De-dollarization can be accomplished by using yuan to settle international trade and store surpluses in gold through the SGEI.
https://cdn-img.gainesvillecoins.com...rf-6367753.jpg

Chinese Yuan, Gold, and De-Dollarization

Introduction
In the Chinese gold market two circuits can be distinguished. Simplified, there is gold trading in the domestic market and in Free Trade Zones (FTZs). The domestic market is separated from FTZs and the rest of the world by the Chinese central bank, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC), that controls import into and export from the domestic market. Gold import and export between FTZs and the rest of the world is not regulated by the PBoC. The SGEI is located in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone (SFTZ) to spur international gold trading in renminbi.

The Chinese Domestic Gold Market
Let’s first examine the Chinese domestic gold market with the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) at its core before we discuss the ins and outs of the SGEI.

Prior to 2002 the PBoC was the primary dealer in the Chinese gold market. With the launch of the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) in 2002 the market was slowly liberalized and took over price setting and gold allocation from the central bank. By 2007 liberalization was completed as by then most wholesale supply and demand flowed through the SGE.

Laws and tax incentives funnel most supply—mine output, imports, and recycled gold—towards the SGE, which for liquidity reasons automatically attracts most demand. The SGE has its own chain of integrity, meaning only certified refineries can load-in gold bars into SGE vaults. To guarantee all metal in the SGE vaulting system is of the right quality, bars withdrawn from the vaults are not allowed to re-enter before having been remelted by a certified refiner. Every month the SGE publishes the tonnage of gold withdrawn from its vaults, which can be interpreted as wholesale demand.

From the SGE rulebook:
gold bullion will no longer be accepted into any [SGE] Certified Vault once it has been withdrawn by a member or customer.

Import into and export from the domestic market is referred to as "general trade," and in the case of gold it’s controlled by the PBoC. Twenty or so enterprises are authorized to import and export standard gold*, but for every batch they need a new License by the PBoC. Because the Chinese government has a policy of storing gold among the people to strengthen China’s economic security, imports are usually not restricted, as opposed to exports that are more or less prohibited. Panda Coins, for example, will be allowed to be exported from the domestic market, but that’s about it.

Since 2004 jewelry fabricators and alike located in mainland China can sell their products abroad though "processing trade." For processing trade no PBoC License is required; under this framework enterprises can freely import into and export gold from FTZs. A fabricator can import raw materials into a FTZ, manufacture products, and export the finished goods. Needless to say, any entity wanting to import gold from a FTZ into the domestic market needs approval by the PBoC.

https://cdn-img.gainesvillecoins.com...old-market.png

Cross-border trade in the Chinese gold market.

The Shanghai International Gold Exchange
To slowly open up China’s financial markets, enhance the connection between the international gold market and the Chinese domestic market, and push renminbi internationalization the SGEI was launched in 2014 in the SFTZ. The SGE is often referred to as the Main Board (MB) and the SGEI as the International Board (IB). The SGEI is fully owned by the SGE (the Exchange hereafter).

Both foreign and Chinese residents can trade MB as well as IB gold contracts on the Exchange. Though, foreigners can only load-in and load-out gold into and from IB vaults in the SFTZ, while Chinese residents can only load-in and load-out gold into and from MB vaults in the domestic market. The exception is that those eligible to import gold under general trade may sell gold located in IB vaults into the domestic market**. Below is an overview of what privileges which traders have with respect to MB and IB contracts.

https://cdn-img.gainesvillecoins.com...priviliges.png

The product codes are the contract names. This overview is from a few years ago (source: Spot Trading Rules of the Shanghai Gold Exchange). I can’t find an update of this overview on the website of the Exchange, but I don’t think the essence has changed.

Foreigners and Chinese residents can thus add liquidity to MB and IB contracts but can only physically move metal on their own side of the fence. As a result, neither will trade gold on the other side for reasons other than making markets, arbitrage, and speculation. Chinese long-term investors, in example, are not likely to buy metal in the SFTZ as they can’t withdraw that metal. Foreigners wanting to withdraw and repatriate will trade IB contracts.

Another feature of the Exchange is that it commingles onshore and offshore renminbi, providing a platform for arbitrage between the two.
China’s Balance of Payments, Cross-border Trade Statistics, and SGE Withdrawals

To understand everything related to the SGEI, we need to drill a little deeper into international trade. What is often misunderstood is that a country’s current account—part of its Balance of Payments, BOP—is not a reflection of goods and services crossing its border. Current accounts register the value of goods and services exchanged between domestic and foreign residents, wherever these residents are located. Cross-border trade statistics

(International Merchandise Trade Statistics, IMTS), on the other hand, record the value of goods physically being moved across borders irrespective of the buyer and seller’s nationalities.

Should a European bullion bank ship gold from London to an SGEI vault in the SFTZ, this will show up in global IMTS but doesn’t affect China’s BOP. When this batch is bought by an Indian investor, withdrawn from an SGEI vault, and exported to a designation of the owners’ discretion, the trade has circumvented China’s current account although it was settled with yuan. To be clear, for IMTS data it’s irrelevant if goods are shipped into a FTZ or the domestic market, as long as it crosses an international border an import and export are recognized.

Now we have reached a basic understanding of the SGEI, we need to examine a few additional elements to complete our analysis. Regarding IMTS figures, only non-monetary gold movements across borders are recorded. Monetary gold, which is metal owned by a monetary authority such as a central bank, is exempt from being reported in IMTS. From the United Nations IMTS rulebook:

Since monetary gold is treated as a financial asset rather than a good, transactions pertaining to it should be excluded from international merchandise trade statistics.

We could be misled when reviewing Chinese net import, in example, if a bank imports gold into the SFTZ, which is then bought by the central bank of Saudi Arabia (SAMA) on the SGEI, and then invisibly exported as monetary gold. The moment SAMA buys non-monetary gold, the metal is monetized—as prescribed by the IMF—and is subsequently eclipsed from cross-border trade statistics. This is how central banks move gold across the globe under the radar. IMTS would display the non-monetary gold import into China but not the monetary gold export, leading to an overstatement of Chinese net import. The reverse is also true: a central bank shipping monetary gold to the SFTZ would be invisible until it is bought by the private sector and de-monetized.

In final, the Exchange discloses an aggregate number for the monthly weight of gold withdrawn from SGE and SGEI vaults combined. At the surface, this number is difficult to put into perspective. Total load-out volume could all end up in the domestic market—being a useful reflection of Chinese wholesale demand—or a chunk of it is exported as (non-)monetary gold from the SFTZ. Luckily, I have insider knowledge from a source at the SGEI.

In 2015, this person told me that virtually all IB trading was done by Chinese banks for importing gold into the domestic market. More recently he wrote me that little gold withdrawn from IB vaults is exported abroad. Total withdrawals thus mainly relate to Chinese demand.

Conclusion
As demonstrated, gold trading in renminbi on the SGEI can be compared to offshore gold trading in the London Bullion Market with US dollars. As such, the SGEI is part of China’s ambitions to internationalize the renminbi to the detriment of the dollar.

Many commentators in the financial blogosphere state China’s closed capital account is holding back the offshore renminbi market from competing with the Eurodollar (offshore dollar) market. True, though PBoC swap lines promote the international use of renminbi, and as Zoltan Pozsar noted in the In Gold We Trust 2023 report: “China has a swap line with everybody.” With which he meant thirty-two counterparties.

https://cdn-img.gainesvillecoins.com...swap-lines.png

PBoC swap lines, courtesy Council on Foreign Relations.

Confirming what we have discussed is a speech by Teng Wei, Deputy General Manager of the Shanghai International Gold Exchange, from 2016:
The international board uses renminbi for pricing and settlement, which effectively connects the onshore and offshore renminbi market …. It also provides a new channel for the return of funds, which is a useful exploration for expanding the cross-border flow of renminbi and steadily promoting the internationalization of renminbi.
…

The journey of the Shanghai International Gold Exchange will epitomize the opening of China’s financial markets to the outside world and play an important part in the internationalization of the renminbi. With Shanghai becoming the third most important market in the world after London and New York, the Chinese gold market will make a great contribution to the internationalization of the renminbi.

Renminbi reserve currency status is still far away because yuan held overseas can’t freely be invested in Chinese assets such as bonds and other securities due to China’s closed capital account. Renminbi can, however, be converted into gold without limits.

Last month Russian news outlet TASS reported the BRICS nations are working on a common currency for international payments. “The idea of creating a common currency, although I would probably call it a payment unit inside BRICS countries, is floating around and is being discussed. We also have proposals about using digital financial assets supported by real assets, for example gold stable coins," Russia’s Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said.

These gold stable coins are most likely to represent gold held in SGEI vaults, Moscow, or other cities in Brazil, South-Africa, or India. Time will tell if the BRICS will materialize this new payment system that incorporates gold, and if the SGEI will be used more by international players.

Appendix
* In China standard gold must be a bar or ingot weighing 50g, 100g, 1Kg, 3Kg or 12.5Kg, with a minimum fineness of 995.0, 999.0, 999.5, or 999.9 parts per thousand.

** Technically, an enterprise eligible for import may load-in metal into IB vaults and sell these metals as deliverable on the MB, provided it has a PBoC License. When the buyer wants to withdraw this gold, the Exchange will make sure it will be loaded out from a vault in the domestic market. That is the easy way of explaining it. For the exact rules please read the Detailed Delivery Rules of Shanghai Gold Exchange:
The Exchange has established a network of Certified Vaults to facilitate physical delivery through the Exchange as well as bullion storage and other transactions by members and customers. Certified Vaults are classified into Main Board Certified Vaults (the MB Certified Vaults) and International Board Certified Vaults (the IB Certified Vaults).

MB Certified Vaults provide bullion storage, load-in and load-out services to Domestic Members and Domestic Customers. IB Certified Vaults provide bullion storage, load-in and load-out services to International Members, International Customers, and any Domestic Members and Domestic Customers who are qualified to import and export gold [have a PBoC License], as well as in acting as their agent in making customs declarations for bullion to be transported into or out of bonded zones [FTZs]. IB Certified Vaults shall accept the supervision of the customs authorities of China.
…
Authorized International Members and International Customers may deposit International Board bullion into IB Certified Vaults and, subject to relevant approved quota [PBoC License], may deposit Main Board bullion into IB Certified Vaults. No International Member or International Customer is permitted to deposit bullion into MB Certified Vaults.

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Jaime Carrasco Jaime Carrasco • 1st • 1st Senior Investment Advisor & Senior Portfolio Manager Senior Investment Advisor & Senior Portfolio Manager

It's lights out for the Gold and Silver GP.

Gold and silver were already outperforming US Treasuries and they have now begun outperforming the Dow Jones, a clear signal that the final wealth transfer has begun as the loss of the purchasing power of all FIAT currencies begins eating away at the equity markets as well, and as history repeats gold and silver will once again be the last men standing.

Don't dismiss the real safety that the earnings of precious metals can offer going forward, shockingly 99.98% of funds in the S&P500 are currently dismissing the benefit of this sector.

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#investments #gold #silver #equitymarkets

"The Dow/Gold Ratio Has Given Just 2 Major Buy Signals For Silver Since The Gold Standard Was Abolished Over 50 Years Ago. IT JUST GAVE THE 3rd. #Silver & #Gold true bull era unfolding NOW."

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Since the break above $2,050 in late February gold has now printed a new $2400 weekly All Time High and April is only half way through plus silver trading at $29 today, all very bullish factors and jet fuel for the levered earnings of the producers.

But you know what they say about bull markets climbing a walls of worry and how nobody is in at the bottom, with 99.98% of all funds in the S&P500 still out of the sector full proof that this bull market is just beginning and one for the history books.

Heard many narratives this week rationalizing why gold is moving higher, but I don't think they yet understand that at the core the West has lost control over price discovery and that from this point forward the ShanghaiX and the Petroyuan oil contract will set the price until this wealth transfer from West to East is done, and in Shanghai the closing price was $2,441 and $31.87.

I continue to advice that Western investors forget about price and worry more about having a suitable allocation to protect from the ongoing loss of purchasing power that these monetary forces are unleashing.

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