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Call me Vidvad - I day trade futures

  • #341
  • Apr 18, 2024 5:30pm Apr 18, 2024 5:30pm
Not many to go. Day 7 follows
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Taking Vidvad's comments on board. This is starting to look pretty promising - will re-write the conditions for entry as soon as this trial is complete.
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  • #342
  • Apr 18, 2024 6:10pm Apr 18, 2024 6:10pm
Quoting binnie
Not many to go. Day 7 follows Taking Vidvad's comments on board. This is starting to look pretty promising - will re-write the conditions for entry as soon as this trial is complete.
That is exactly how you should do it. Do a complete sample trial, review, revise, and do your next tial. Once you settle on your rules for a particular trial, stick to the rules until the end of the trial. Then review, revise, repeat.

It is THE formula for success.

I've been very busy with work, but I did trade yesterday and today for just a about an hour between 8:30 AM until the 9:30 AM open.

I feel that having taken the past couple of weeks off has actually had a salutary effect on my trading.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #343
  • Edited 1:14pm Apr 19, 2024 1:02pm | Edited 1:14pm
Ok here's my 2 cents Binnie. This is a pet peeve of mine with trading particularly day trading. This goal of trading of any kind is to maximize profit, You set a S/L of 40 ticks which for MNQ or NQ is fine, you say your profit target is 40 ticks but apparently you don't set it up to trigger automatically as I see many instances where max run up was well past that 40 ticks.
Looking at your daily results for 6 days I see the following:
1) 6 instances where you got more than halfway to your target and wound up hitting full S/L total -240 ticks. If you had moved you s/l to B/E at 20 ticks you avoid these losses, even if you move stop to-10 you eliminate 180 ticks in losses.
2) 3 instances where you got to +10 towards your target move you you stop up by 10 ticks you eliminate 30 ticks of losses.
3) 5 instances where you had +80 run up and you took 40 tick wins. If you get that far past your target of 40 once you get 2 candles against you get out, So estimating you get out for 70 ticks in each case that 150 ticks of lost profits.
4) 3 instances where you +60 run up 2 candles against you you get out at +50
This eliminates min of 210 ticks of losses maximum 270 ticks. When you get past your target of 40 you save 180 ticks of profit. This way your 400 ticks ahead.
You're profitable but could be much more so. Anyway that's my opinion. I've never understood the logic of letting a winning trade become a losing trade or Holding on to a trade that's a really good winner and not just getting out once a couple candles in a row turn against you.
  • #344
  • Apr 19, 2024 1:15pm Apr 19, 2024 1:15pm
Good luck on your Journey. Stay focused.
  • #345
  • Apr 19, 2024 2:03pm Apr 19, 2024 2:03pm
Quoting rockypoint
This goal of trading of any kind is to maximize profit.
You might not undertsand the particular perspective from which binnie is managing his tradinng plan, rocky.

"We are doing an exercise the goal of which is not profit. We are trading for anew reason. We are going to stay focused in the process of trading as opposed to the outcome. The typical trader is obsessed with the outcome of a trade while the professional trader is focused in the process of trading and letting the outcomes take care of themselves." - Mark Douglas

The exercise, done as prescribed by Douglas, is to remove all subjective decision making from the process, define a mechanical trading method with fixed stop loss and take profit, and then trade a pre-determined number of instances of the set up or number of days.

This Mark Douglas video explains the exercise.

Mark Douglas Explains THE EXERCISE (youtube.com)

I had some time to trade this afternoon. I usually don't trade this late in the day but the trends have been very good lately so I went for it.

Every one of these trades had a fixed +41 tick profit target. I used the bar status indicator to properly set my entry orders. I was focused only on the chart - no youtube, no FF, no twitter. Just me and the chart, focused 100% on the process and letting the outcome of each trade trake care of itself.

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Focus on the process, and the outcomes will take care of themselves:

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Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #346
  • Apr 19, 2024 2:13pm Apr 19, 2024 2:13pm
Might be my last trade for today. Short NQ, used the bar status nidcator to set a sell stop at 17135.25, fixed +41 tick profit target was filled for a profit. The low of that move was only 2 points below the take profit.

There is nothing wrong with a fixed profit target, especially if it is based on actual instrument volatility. If you are using this method properly, you should have a very high win rate.

Focus on the process.

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Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #347
  • Apr 19, 2024 2:16pm Apr 19, 2024 2:16pm
This is definitely my last trade of the day. The only long trade I've taken today. ema's crossed, price and ema's above the 34 ema, first doji pause, used the bar status indicator to precisely set a buy stop at 17179. Another +41 tick profit target filled.

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Final p/l for the day:

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Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #348
  • Apr 19, 2024 2:20pm Apr 19, 2024 2:20pm
I think one big reason a lot of retail people like me struggle for years and most ultimately fail to succeed is because they DON"T have a plan to take profits.

Ask yourself if you have a lot of trades where you have a profit but then you give it all back, over and over and over again. If so, then start setting a take profit target.

You can make a million dollars in a year starting with $2000 if you take a fixed small profit using a high win rate method and increase size over time as your profits accumulate.

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Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #349
  • Apr 19, 2024 8:38pm Apr 19, 2024 8:38pm
Day 8 summaries:
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  • #350
  • Apr 19, 2024 8:47pm Apr 19, 2024 8:47pm
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Thought this needs a bit of extra attention. My plan is to hit the market button as soon as there is a close beyond the latest swing level. I am calculating that my entry will be 1 tick above/below the close. This 2nd trade moved so fast as I hit the Sell Market price actually moved 36 ticks (9 full points) so my entry quickly led to a loss because the run down had run out of space before turning backup.
I have yet to do my homework on the Bar Status indicator to see how it prints and whether I am able to calculate when a bar will close beyond a level. Will it be possible to set an order using the Bar Status Indy?
  • #351
  • Apr 19, 2024 9:10pm Apr 19, 2024 9:10pm
Quoting rockypoint
Good luck on your Journey. Stay focused.
Cheers Rocky - grateful for your interest and feedback. Yes I understand exactly what you are saying. The concept of B/E + will become a critical part of my Trade Management and hence my money management. I agree that it is a real bad idea to let the market take back any of your profits let alone steal the lot so this part of my plan will definitely receive full consideration.
I only have 2 more days for this trial to run and then I can start to revise all of my conditions. Admittedly the idea of triggers at the bar close across latest swings has not been " profitable " but it is showing me enough about the price action leading into these levels that I am starting to see where possible earlier entries can be taken advantage of. It seems that a lot of these entries using swing levels are too far into the run. Homework still to do but this is promising. Thanks again.
  • #352
  • Apr 19, 2024 9:23pm Apr 19, 2024 9:23pm
@Vidvad - You must have an extreme concentration levels mate. Those trades would have my eyes all crossed & giddy
Just shows how things can work for you if you show dedication. Awesome posts thanks. I do want to understand how the Bar Status works. I do follow that the levels are dynamic as price fluctuates within that 21 Renko bar and the actual closes ( highs & lows ) are identified. Are these levels the actual close of the bar and is it safe to +1 as a Stop Limit Order?? I will do some practice on replay to see if I can work it out but will be a bonus to hear your comments.
Cheers
  • #353
  • Apr 20, 2024 1:00am Apr 20, 2024 1:00am
Bar Status Indicator - This is a snapshot of final bar today.
New bar to form 17185.25 or 17170.00.
Can you walk me through how this has been calculated.
I see the current close is 17180.00 - add on my 21 tick bar (5.25points) = 17185.25
but I cannot see where the next Red bar will form at 17170.00.
Have googled but only finding a site that sells the indicator.
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Thx guys
  • #354
  • Apr 20, 2024 8:02am Apr 20, 2024 8:02am
Quoting binnie
I have yet to do my homework on the Bar Status indicator to see how it prints and whether I am able to calculate when a bar will close beyond a level. Will it be possible to set an order using the Bar Status Indy?
The bar status indicator tells you the high and low of the current candle. So to set a sell stop to go short, you set your sell stop one tick below what the low of the current bar would be IF that bar is going to close down.

Suppose you wanted to go long IF this current candle closes as a bull candle. As you can see, the highest this candle can print and NOT close is 17184. So where do you place your buy stop? Simple: You enter a buy stop at 17184.25.

The bar status indicator does not reprint. It is always referencing the highest high and lowest low the current candle can print and stay within the range of itself, that is, the highest high and lowest low it can print and remain the SAME candle. One tick higher and it will close as a green candle or doji, one tick lower it will close as a red candle or doji.
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This method really is untradable on a volatile instrument like the NQ without the bar status indicator, imo. I wouldn't trade any instrument using renko or range candles without it.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #355
  • Apr 20, 2024 8:35am Apr 20, 2024 8:35am
Quoting binnie
Bar Status Indicator - This is a snapshot of final bar today. New bar to form 17185.25 or 17170.00. Can you walk me through how this has been calculated. I see the current close is 17180.00 - add on my 21 tick bar (5.25points) = 17185.25 but I cannot see where the next Red bar will form at 17170.00. Have googled but only finding a site that sells the indicator.{image} Thx guys
Your confusion is due to you not considering how renko bars are calculated. A renko reversal has to go twice as many ticks in the opposite direction of a candle to change direction. Add to that the fact that we are further stirring the pot by adding the Heiken Ashi calculations to the mix and the math gets really wonky.

I can tell you that after many, many months and hundreds of trades, the bar status indicator is accurate.

Watch this video to better understand how renko candles are calculated.

Inserted Video
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #356
  • Apr 20, 2024 8:42am Apr 20, 2024 8:42am
Quoting binnie
I do want to understand how the Bar Status works. I do follow that the levels are dynamic as price fluctuates within that 21 Renko bar and the actual closes ( highs & lows ) are identified. Are these levels the actual close of the bar and is it safe to +1 as a Stop Limit Order?? I will do some practice on replay to see if I can work it out but will be a bonus to hear your comments. Cheers
Again, you are locked in the "21 tick brick" and that is not really the whole story when it comes to how renko bricks are calculated and formed.

This is one instance where you really do not need to know all the maths behind an indicator to make it work for you. For example, I like the Williams %R. I know exactly what the Willima's %R is measuring and I can calculate by hand and in real time. Now, do I do that when I am trading a method that uses William's %R? No, I let the platform and computer do it for me. However, I do insist that I understand the math behind every indicator I try and every indicator that I use to build a trading system.

The bar staus indicator is a beast because it is calculating renko and renko is NOT calculated the way we first assume: That is, 21 ricks isn't always 21 ticks, sometimes it is 42, sometimes it is 61 lol.

If this is really bothering you, then do some study on renko bars. Then do some study on the Heiken Ashi formula.

But in the mean time, trust the bar status indicator. It is NEVER wrong.

It does not mean your trades will never be losses. But the bar status indicator is NEVER wrong.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #357
  • Apr 20, 2024 10:07am Apr 20, 2024 10:07am
Quoting binnie
@Vidvad - You must have an extreme concentration levels mate. Those trades would have my eyes all crossed & giddy Just shows how things can work for you if you show dedication.
The way Ninjatrader marks trades makes it look messier and more complicated than it was. The trades were pretty easy so long as you're focused on the chart. One of the reasons I don't trade more than an hour or two is because after that amount of time it does get more difficult for me to maintain the level of concentration it requires to trade every set up and not miss any opportunities. Missing opportunities is one key cause of serious mistakes, e.g. first comes FOMO and chasing entries, then the losses that should have been wins, then the revegne trading to "get it all back" quickly.

Focus, singular and intense and undistracted focus is curative.

Note there were trades yesterday I didn't take because I was posting to FF at the time.

One thing I've changed is I made it a rule not to trade and do anything else at the same time. So once I decided to respond to the journal yesterday, I stopped trading until I was done posting.

Focus, focus, focus.

And with the bar status indicator, it really is easy.

I've removed the swing indicator for now. I feel I see the levels pretty well on my own at this point. Also, I am really using trend/trading range to determine my trade direction now, and sometimes I feel the swing indi marks things differently than I am seeing them.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #358
  • Apr 20, 2024 10:18am Apr 20, 2024 10:18am
Hi Vidvad….can you confirm if after you enter your trade with 21 renko 8/21 ema system with bar status indicator with fixed target and stop loss, you just let the trade play itself out or at some point in the trade do you move stop loss to break even?
Thanks
  • #359
  • Apr 20, 2024 2:53pm Apr 20, 2024 2:53pm
Quoting Ed777
Hi Vidvad….can you confirm if after you enter your trade with 21 renko 8/21 ema system with bar status indicator with fixed target and stop loss, you just let the trade play itself out or at some point in the trade do you move stop loss to break even? Thanks
It changes week tp week, ed.

Currently I have the stop move automatically to m+5 ticks once the trade is +25.

It knocks me out of some winners, but it also prevents quite a few -40 tick losers, so it balances out most likely.

I use ninjatrader and set the automated trading strategy so I don't have to do anything but set my entry orders, move my entry orders, or cancel my entry orders.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #360
  • Apr 20, 2024 6:17pm Apr 20, 2024 6:17pm
Thanks Vidvad. I really like your sound approach
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