When I see this three drive patter I'll enter on the close candle below the low of the second pullback, and sometimes I'll enter earlier.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
Call me Vidvad - I day trade futures
- #321
- Apr 11, 2024 5:24am Apr 11, 2024 5:24am
- Joined May 2022 | Status: Grateful for the Roulette Epiphany | 1,916 Posts
7 possible set ups today. Candles can form very fast so need to be concentrating fully when price nears trade levels. I have noticed that intra candle action can be highly volatile and price tends to whipsaw back & forth while it is forming. I am still establishing a Risk / Reward that I will be comfortable with. I will describe reasons for the trades indicated and will then dig deeper to find a way of seeing an end result – either positive or a loss. The intention is to find repetitive action that might allow me to extract a few points ( 4 ticks...
The first look at how the trades unfolded. Not a great starting result. First impression is that entries were far too late. A fair chunk of the move is almost over in a lot of cases. The trades were over real fast - there is no time to THINK or double guess whether a trigger is going to be a good one. All charts look great in hindsight when we can see what's actually happened. Anyway - I will go again tomorrow morning{image} {image}
- #324
- Apr 11, 2024 12:48pm Apr 11, 2024 12:48pm
Thx Vid - I see what you mean. Pretty much a perfect 2b breakdown ? 
Hi there JV - Funny you mention your take on the 1st days trades. As I was heading to bed I was thinking exactly what you are saying about earlier entries. The obvious entry would be at the close of the bar that leaves the 8ema channel. Providing the channel is in the correct position to the 34ema which I am using as my Director.
I can make a good case to enter where your arrows are once a pullback is completed and I can also agree with the Sell where there is a bar crossing below the 34 purely as a continuation of sorts.
Thanks for the suggestion re the Bar Status Indicator. I will sure have a look
Hi there JV - Funny you mention your take on the 1st days trades. As I was heading to bed I was thinking exactly what you are saying about earlier entries. The obvious entry would be at the close of the bar that leaves the 8ema channel. Providing the channel is in the correct position to the 34ema which I am using as my Director.
I can make a good case to enter where your arrows are once a pullback is completed and I can also agree with the Sell where there is a bar crossing below the 34 purely as a continuation of sorts.
Thanks for the suggestion re the Bar Status Indicator. I will sure have a look
- #326
- Apr 12, 2024 1:29pm Apr 12, 2024 1:29pm
- Joined May 2022 | Status: Grateful for the Roulette Epiphany | 1,916 Posts
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
Dull couple of days here.
Day 2 : Only the single entry using my conditions. Took almost 11 mins to complete and as yet I have not formed a way to manage this length of trade ie Moving to Break Even plus xx ticks. This one rambled along -peaked at +38 then retreated to take the full 40 stop loss. As this is a warts & all trial I am not concerned this happened as I know from my past live trading experience that I would most definitely have taken at least 20. It is certainly on my tidy -up list
Day 2 : Only the single entry using my conditions. Took almost 11 mins to complete and as yet I have not formed a way to manage this length of trade ie Moving to Break Even plus xx ticks. This one rambled along -peaked at +38 then retreated to take the full 40 stop loss. As this is a warts & all trial I am not concerned this happened as I know from my past live trading experience that I would most definitely have taken at least 20. It is certainly on my tidy -up list
Day 3 - again pretty quiet but trades completed fast.
The 1st Sell signal was confirmed just as my session started and got to my target (just).
Trade 2 Buy was one of those you would love to ride up by adding more trades as it travelled north. A seasoned trader would likely have been able to add more contracts but I do not have enough experience for this yet. There were no Higher resistance levels from previous day & week highs.
The 1st Sell signal was confirmed just as my session started and got to my target (just).
Trade 2 Buy was one of those you would love to ride up by adding more trades as it travelled north. A seasoned trader would likely have been able to add more contracts but I do not have enough experience for this yet. There were no Higher resistance levels from previous day & week highs.
@JVT - Thx for sharing link to the bar status indy. Looks a handy weapon to have in the arsenal.
Having spent last few days on this project, I am starting to see how earlier entries are possible and in some instances there are good trades there that would not be signaled using my set of conditions.
I am committed to completing my trial but will also keep an eye on what you have suggested.
Good weekend you guys.
Having spent last few days on this project, I am starting to see how earlier entries are possible and in some instances there are good trades there that would not be signaled using my set of conditions.
I am committed to completing my trial but will also keep an eye on what you have suggested.
Good weekend you guys.
- #331
- Apr 13, 2024 8:48am Apr 13, 2024 8:48am
- Joined May 2022 | Status: Grateful for the Roulette Epiphany | 1,916 Posts
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
Cheers Vidvad, Great to have you peeping over my shoulder during this journey. Agree totally with what you are saying. Yes this is an exercise to get some stats to prove ( or disprove ) my ideas. If I can achieve a positive outcome after my 10day tryout, that will give me the confidence to establish a solid set of rules for entry and trade management.
In the past I too have suffered the nasty kick in the rear end when the market has taken me to my profit target, actually touched it and not taken me out and then reversed on me to hit my stoploss. It's not a great feeling. I have always been ok to get to B/Even as soon as possible but with the NQ it seems we have to give it a bit of space to breathe.
Just heading away to Lake Taupo for 3 days with the grandkids but will take my laptop with me to keep this trial moving.
Catch ya later
) my ideas. If I can achieve a positive outcome after my 10day tryout, that will give me the confidence to establish a solid set of rules for entry and trade management.In the past I too have suffered the nasty kick in the rear end when the market has taken me to my profit target, actually touched it and not taken me out and then reversed on me to hit my stoploss. It's not a great feeling. I have always been ok to get to B/Even as soon as possible but with the NQ it seems we have to give it a bit of space to breathe.
Just heading away to Lake Taupo for 3 days with the grandkids but will take my laptop with me to keep this trial moving.
Catch ya later
My weekend has finished with the grandkids - they have worn us oldies out 
Today I have stuck to my conditions for a breakout from the latest swing as shown by my indicator. There was a loss to start but regained ground with next 2 trades.
There was a nice run down towards the end of my session but I cannot enter because the swing indy does not give me a trigger. I agree there is a way to find an entry but that is not part of this exercise.
Today I have stuck to my conditions for a breakout from the latest swing as shown by my indicator. There was a loss to start but regained ground with next 2 trades.
There was a nice run down towards the end of my session but I cannot enter because the swing indy does not give me a trigger. I agree there is a way to find an entry but that is not part of this exercise.
- #334
- Apr 16, 2024 11:06pm Apr 16, 2024 11:06pm
Day 5 - now half way through. Only 1 legit trigger which was a loss. Trades marked as 2 & 3 were both looking possibilities but there was no space between the 34ema and the 8 channel. As the trigger bar closes the ma's have not yet printed so my conditions were not met to pull the trigger. Exactly the same as the late down surge yesterday. Fortunately this is all in sim but will have to find a way to jump onto these little beauties. I wonder if using a displacement value on the ma's would be ok?? Any suggestions on that for later when I can reassess my conditions.?
- #335
- Apr 17, 2024 4:29pm Apr 17, 2024 4:29pm
- Joined May 2022 | Status: Grateful for the Roulette Epiphany | 1,916 Posts
Day 5 - now half way through. Only 1 legit trigger which was a loss. Trades marked as 2 & 3 were both looking possibilities but there was no space between the 34ema and the 8 channel. As the trigger bar closes the ma's have not yet printed so my conditions were not met to pull the trigger. Exactly the same as the late down surge yesterday. Fortunately this is all in sim but will have to find a way to jump onto these little beauties. I wonder if using a displacement value on the ma's would be ok?? Any suggestions on that for later when I can reassess...
You should be more concerned with the direction of the ema's, e.g. up slope, down slope, or more or less flat.
One of the reasons I ultimately decided to go with the 8/21 ema combo instead of the 8 ema tunnel is that I wasn't using the tunnel as a trigger.
Trade 2, imo, is one you should not miss. Trade 3 also. The first trade was fine; however it was entered in the middle of a trading range. What's worse, it was actually entered much closer to the highs of that range than the lows.
Trade 2 was the clear breakdown out of that range. Trade 3 a bear flag short continuation of the trade 2 breakdown.
Easy for me to say all this in hindsight, of course.
I think the presence of that trading range after the strong rally should be more meaningful in your rtading plan that "space" of the ema bands.
Finally, regarding the concept of "space," consider that in short trades the ema of the high will likely have less space and during long trades the ema of the low will have less space.
What really was notable is the ANGLE of the 8 ema's at trade 2, the lack of angle up or down at trade 1, and the quadruple matching highs (resistance/bear flag behavior) prior to the trade three breakdown.
Again, I realize I'm noting all this in hindsight, and in hindsight I have a 100% win rate
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
{quote} I'm not sure that "space" Again, I realize I'm noting all this in hindsight, and in hindsight I have a 100% win rate
Well said my friend
I am literally starting to see your view of my charts Vidvad.
The further my trial progresses the more I am seeing great set ups that I am not getting involved with because of my "space of Ma's " ideas. You are so correct about looking at charts after the fact LOL It's a pity that nobody has been able to create a "Hindsight Strategy". There is definitely some truth about the slope of the ma's. It does seem to indicate greater strength in a move.I am committed to my 10 day test but I am refining my thoughts about what comes next for me. You are providing a wide box of things to look at and if I can start to read "pullbacks" with a bit more certainty, there are always a good number of entries available during my trading session.
Question - you mention the 8/21 ma's. I am guessing the channel no longer applies in your trading?
Thx for helping
- #338
- Apr 18, 2024 8:34am Apr 18, 2024 8:34am
- Joined May 2022 | Status: Grateful for the Roulette Epiphany | 1,916 Posts
{quote}There is definitely some truth about the slope of the ma's. It does seem to indicate greater strength in a move.
If an ema of the closes is rising, that tells you that the over that timeframe, the candle closes are getting higher and higher, indicating that price is rising. That is easy enough to see, even without the ema, right?
The slope or angle of the ema tells us whther the rate of change is increasing more or less quickly.
When the ema rises sharply, the rate of price change is quickening. When the slope or angle is rising at a lower angle of slope, then the rate of change of price is moving more slowly.
Direction, imo, is most important. But rate of change as viewed through the lens of the angle of ema change is an important consideration as well.
If the ema is flat that indicates very little change, i.e. a trading range.
I want to trade trends, not trading ranges.
{quote} Question - you mention the 8/21 ma's. I am guessing the channel no longer applies in your trading? Thx for helping
I have pretty much settled on the 8/21 ema's rather than the channel.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
- #339
- Apr 18, 2024 8:36am Apr 18, 2024 8:36am
- Joined May 2022 | Status: Grateful for the Roulette Epiphany | 1,916 Posts
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
{image}
What you pointed out here is another condition that I will pay close attention to together with your explanation of the Ema's. I'm just going to do a bit of behind the scenes visual back test using 8/21 and look for breaks of multiple bar closes provided they qualify for slope & position.
