Morning Briefing

15 Apr 24. 0842 IST or 0312 GMT or 2312 EST

Good Morning!

The US Dollar continues to trade higher but could pause near 106.20 while the Euro is headed towards 1.06 from where a short bounce can be possible. EURJPY could trade within the 165-162 region while USDJPY could face interim resistance at 154. Aussie and Pound continue to hold above supports at 0.6450/64 and 1.24 and can move up slowly in the coming days. USDCNY may rise towards 7.24 from where an interim dip is possible. EURINR could range between 88-89.50 for a few sessions. We watch price action near 83.50 on USDINR to see if it breaks on the upside or dips back towards 83.30/20, keeping a near-term range of 83.20-83.50 intact.

The US Treasury yields have dipped slightly. They have to get a strong follow-through rise from here to move higher. Else the yields can fall back. The German yields have declined sharply from the upper end of their respective range. The sideways range remains intact, and the yields might fall within it now. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI surged on Friday. The outlook is now bullish. More rise is on the cards.

Dow Jones, DAX and Nikkei looks bearish for the near term. Nifty might break below its support of 22500 taking cues from sell off in global equities. Shanghai to trade sideways within 3000-3100 for a while.

Strong US CPI data, Hawkish FED comments on Friday that they were in no hurry to cut interest rate and Middle East tensions have led to volatility in commodity market. Brent can rise while it remains above the support at $89.50. WTI looks ranged. Gold, Silver and Copper rose sharply on Friday before falling back. Metals might fall further in the near term. Natural Gas is to trade sideways within a range of 1.5/1.7-2.00.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.

16 Apr 24. 0844 IST or 0314 GMT or 2314 EST

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index continued to rise on strong US Retail sales data but could face rejection near 107.50 in the near term, while the Euro is headed towards 1.06-1.055 from where a short bounce can be possible. EURJPY trades higher within the 162-165 region while USDJPY has risen above our expected resistance at 154 and is now likely to test 155-156 in the near term. Aussie and Pound are nearing their supports at 0.64 and 1.24 respectively from where they could move up in the coming sessions. USDCNY remained flat during the day. EURINR could bounce towards 89.50 in the next few sessions while above 88. USDINR may remain below 83.50 on RBI's intervention else a weaker Euro below 1.06, if seen, could drag USDINR above 83.50 soon.

The US Treasury yields have surged back again. A strong break above the immediate resistances can take the yields further higher in the coming days. The German yields have also risen back sharply and are now poised at the upper end of their range. We will have to wait and watch if the yields are making a bullish range breakout from here. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI remained higher but stable. The outlook is bullish, and the yields can rise more from current levels.

Dow Jones and Nikkei remains bearish for the near term. DAX and Shanghai look mixed and range bound. Nifty indeed broke below its support of 22500 as expected and has scope to test 22000 on the downside.

Crude prices looks range bound. Metals have recovered well contrary to our view to see a fall in the near term. There is room to rise more from here for Metals. Natural Gas can trade sideways within 2.00-1.50 with a bearish view.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.

18 Apr 24. 0848 IST or 0318 GMT or 2318 EST

Good Morning!

The US Dollar faced selling pressure near 106.50 while the Euro has managed to bounce from 1.06 and could rise to 1.07/0750. EURJPY could trade within 165-162 region while USDJPY needs to hold above 154 else can decline towards 153/152 soon. Aussie and Pound have managed to bounce from 0.64 and 1.24 but there could be some more room for a fall towards supports at 0.63 and 1.23/22 in the medium term. USDCNY may fall towards 7.22 while below 7.24. EURINR could rise towards the upper end of the 88-90 range. In USDINR, it would be crucial to watch price action near 83.50/55. A make or break from this level will drive the next course of action on the pair.

The US Treasury yields remain stable and higher. A strong follow-through rise from here will avoid a fall-back and take the yields higher going forward. We will have to wait and watch. The German yields are poised at the upper end of their range. Need to wait and see if they are making a bullish breakout and rise further from here or reversing lower to keep the range intact. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI remains bullish and have room to rise further from here.

Dow Jones, DAX and Nikkei have room to fall further in the near term. Shanghai has scope to see a break on the upside of its sideways range. Nifty is coming down towards its supports. Need to see if that holds and produces a bounce back or not.

Crude prices have fallen sharply after Wednesday's weekly EIA report showed that crude inventories have risen more than expected. Gold, Silver and Copper have dipped but have near term supports which may hold and lead to a rise towards our expected level. Natural Gas can trade sideways within 1.50-2.00 for a while.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.

19 Apr 24. 0851 IST or 0321 GMT or 2321 EST

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index rose sharply above 106, contrary to seeing a fall towards 105 and it is now likely to head towards 106.5-107. Meanwhile, the Euro is expected to test the support at 1.06. EURJPY continues to trade within 165-162 region while USDJPY failed to sustain above 154.80 and can now decline towards 153/152 soon. Aussie and Pound have declined below their respective supports and are likely to test 0.63 and 1.23 respectively. USDCNY has risen past 7.24 but could face rejection around current levels else can test 7.25. EURINR could rise towards the upper end of the 88-90 range. In USDINR, we need to be cautious around 83.50/55. Break above 83.55 will take it towards 83.60/70.

The US Treasury yields have inched. The bias remains positive to see more rise from here. Need to see if a strong follow-through rise is happening from here or not. The German yields have just broken their range on the upside. While the breakout sustains, a further rise is possible. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI remains bullish and have room to rise more from here.

Dow Jones is stuck in a narrow range below 38100 but remains vulnerable to a fall in the near term. DAX has bounced slightly but outlook will remain bearish as long as it holds below 18000. Nikkei continues to fall and looks bearish to test 36000 before a bounce can be seen. Nifty closed lower just below its key support and a further fall below 21900, if seen, will intensify the sell-off. Shanghai remains bullish to see a break on the upper end of the sideways range and target further upside.

Strong recovery is seen in Crude prices due to geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran. Gold and Copper have scope to test their immediate resistance before a corrective fall can happen. Silver looks ranged but has potential to rise while above the support at 28.00-27.50. Natural Gas looks bullish within its 1.50-2.00 sideways range.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.

22 Apr 24. 0845 IST or 0315 GMT or 2315 EST

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index needs to be sustained above 106 to test 106.5-107 else can get dragged towards 105.5-105. Meanwhile, the Euro could remain ranged within 1.06-1.07 for a while. EURJPY remains volatile within the 165-162 region with a possible attempt to break higher while USDJPY is headed towards 155-156. Aussie and Pound are heading higher towards 0.65 and 1.25 respectively. USDCNY remained flat above 7.24 on Friday and may continue to rise towards 1.25. EURINR is rising towards the upper end of the 88-90 range. In USDINR, we can expect a lower opening below 83.55/50 in onshore markets today with an overall range of 83.55-83.40/35 for the near term.

The US Treasury yields have recovered sharply from their lows on Friday. This keeps the positive bias intact and keeps the doors open for more rise in the coming days. The German yields sustain their range breakout. But a strong follow-through rise is needed from here to move higher and avoid falling back into the range again. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have risen sharply on Friday. The bullish outlook is intact, and the yields can rise further from here.

Dow Jones and Nikkei have bounced a bit but outlook will remain bearish while below the resistance at 38100 and 38000 respectively. DAX remains bearish for the near term. Strong recovery was seen in Nifty last friday but it has to overcome the resistance ahead to negate the danger of falling towards 21500-21300. Shanghai has scope to break on the upper end of the sideways range and target further upside.

Crude prices have fallen back sharply. Brent might get some support at $86-85. WTI can fall further while it remains below $83-84. Gold and Silver to trade sideways for a while. Copper continues to rally but might face rejections near 4.58-4.60. Natural Gas to trade sideways within 1.50-2.00 for a while.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.

23 Apr 24. 0849 IST or 0319 GMT or 2319 EST

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index, EURUSD, and EURJPY appear to range between 106.50-105.50, 1.06-1.07 and 162-165 respectively, while USDJPY could soon test our mentioned targets of 155-156. Aussie above 0.64 can rise further towards 0.65-0.655 and Pound needs to sustain above 1.23 to test 1.24/25 on the upside. USDCNY is slowly rising towards 7.25. EURINR may remain ranged within the 88.50-90 region. In USDINR, we need to be cautious around current levels as support can be spotted around 83.30 which if held, can take it higher towards 83.50.

The US Treasury and the German yields seem to be lacking strength to move up. They need a strong follow-through rise from here to move higher. Else, the Treasury yields can fall to test their support and the German yields can fall-back into their earlier range. We will have to wait and watch. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have come down. But supports are there to limit the downside and keep the overall uptrend intact.

Dow Jones has risen above the resistance at 38100 and can rise further if the break sustains. DAX looks range bound between 17600-18000 but outlook will remain bearish while below 18000. Nifty can rise too taking cues from Dow Jones. It has to rise above 22500 to become bullish towards 23000. Nikkei is trying to bounce but has to surpass the resistance overhead to become bullish, else it would remain vulnerable for the near term. Shanghai can remain ranged within 3100-3000 for a while.

Crude prices look mixed and might trade sideways for a while. Gold, Silver and Copper have fallen sharply and might dip towards their near term supports. Natural Gas to trade sideways within 1.50-2.00 for a while.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.

24 Apr 24. 0850 IST or 0320 GMT or 2320 EST

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index is headed towards 105.50 while the Euro has risen above 1.07 and could head towards 1.0750/1.08. EURJPY, Aussie and Pound have been rising well over the past few sessions and look bullish towards 166, 0.6550/0.66 and 1.2550/1.26 respectively. USDJPY trades below the immediate resistance at 155. USDCNY is bullish towards 7.25 while above 7.24. EURINR may remain ranged within 88.50-89.50/90 region. USDINR may hold between 83.30-83.50. A break below 83.30, if seen and sustained can take it down to 83.20/10.

The US Treasury yields remain stable. They have to sustain above their immediate support and get a strong follow-through rise from here to avoid a fall going forward. It is a wait and watch situation now. The German yields have inched up. The range breakout is sustaining. While this remains intact, a further rise is possible. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have come down. Though there is room to fall further, the broader trend is up. Supports are there to limit the downside and take the yields higher again.

Dow Jones can test 38700 on the upside. Thereafter we need to see if the rise extends further or turns lower from there. DAX and Nikkei have risen sharply above their resistance and while this break sustains, we can expect further upside in the near term. Nifty sustains higher but seems to lack strength. Might attempt to break above 22500 taking cues from global equities. Shanghai can remain ranged within 3100-3000 for a while.

Brent can rise towards its upper end of the range. WTI has risen towards $84. A break above it, if seen, can target $86. Gold and Silver has bounced but could face resistance at 2370-2380 and 28 respectively. Copper might trade within 4.35-4.50 for a while. Natural Gas to trade sideways within 1.50-2.00 for a while with a bullish view.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.

Sure, feel free to ask your questions related to forex trading!

25 Apr 24. 0850 IST or 0320 GMT or 2320 EST

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index looks stable within its 106.5-105.5 range, while Euro may test 1.0750 before falling back into the range of 1.06-1.07. EURJPY looks bullish while above 166. Aussie has fallen a bit and could test the support at 0.6450/64 before attempting to rise back. Pound has been rising well over the past few sessions and looks bullish towards 1.2550/1.26. USDJPY has broken above 155 and if sustained can extend its rise towards 158 in the medium term. USDCNY is bullish towards 7.25 while above 7.24. EURINR may remain ranged within 88.50-89.50/90 region. USDINR could remain within 83.40-83.20 range for a while.

The US Treasury yields are getting a follow-through rise. While this sustains, there is room to rise more from here. The US PCE data release tomorrow will need a close watch. The German yields have come up to the expected levels much faster than anticipated. The price action in the coming days will need a watch to see if the rise is extending beyond the mentioned levels or not. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have bounced back. The broader view remains bullish. Supports are there to limit the downside in case of any intermediate dips.

Most of the Equities have dipped expect Nifty and Shanghai. Dow Jones, Dax and Nifty needs to rise past the resistance overhead for increased bullishness. Nikkei has fallen back but has immediate support at 37600-37500 region, which if holds, can lead to a bounce back. Shanghai can remain ranged within 3000-3100 for a while.

Crude prices looks range bound for the near term. Gold can fall if it remains below 2370. Silver and Copper is likely to ranged for a while. Natural Gas has fallen back but downside could be limited to 1.90-1.80.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.

Q: What is the significance of daily forecasts in forex trading?
A: Daily forecasts help predict market movements, aiding in strategic decision-making. How reliable are these forecasts, especially in volatile markets?

26 Apr 24. 0854 IST or 0324 GMT or 2324 EST

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index has dipped towards 105.50 while Euro is heading up 1.0750 after downbeat US GDP Q/Q% for Q1 2024 (Advance Estimate) came in at 1.60% from 3.40% in Q4 2023. EURJPY can rise towards 168 while above 166. Aussie and Pound have potential to rise towards 0.66 and 1.2550/1.26. USDJPY trades higher ahead of the BOJ meeting but needs to break above 156 for increased bullishness. USDCNY might trade within 7.24-7.25 for a while. EURINR may remain ranged within 88.50-89.50/90 region. USDINR can remain below 83.40 and trade within 83.40-83.20 for a while.

The US Treasury yields have risen sharply after the GDP data failed to meet the market expectation. The US grew (advanced estimates) at 1.6% in the first quarter much lower than the market expectation of 2.4%. The Treasury yields have room to rise further from here. The US PCE data release today is important to watch. The German yields continue to move up. If the momentum continues, there is more room to rise from here. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have moved up further there by keeping intact the broader uptrend. The yields can rise more.

Dow Jones has fallen sharply and may fall further on a break below 37600. DAX has fallen as the resistance at 18200 held and looks bearish to dip further from here. Nifty has risen sharply, breaking above 22500 and while this break sustains, a further rise can be seen in the near term. Nikkei has scope to bounce back while above 37500-37000. Shanghai to remain ranged within 3000-3100 for a while.

Brent to trade within $85-90 for a while. WTI has risen towards its resistance at $84. A break above $84 is needed for increased bullishness, else it may continue to trade within $84-80 range. Gold and Silver can remain ranged within 2370-2350 for a while. Copper has risen above 4.55 and has scope to rise further in the near term. Natural Gas has bounced as the support at 1.90 has held well.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.

29 Apr 24. 0847 IST or 0317 GMT or 2317 EST

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index looks stable within its range of 106.50-105.50/105, while the Euro needs to sustain above current levels to test 1.08. EURJPY and USDJPY have moved up sharply, above our mentioned targets of 168 and 158 respectively. Price action around current levels would be important to watch as to whether they would rise further or not. Aussie and Pound have the potential to rise towards 0.66 and 1.2550/1.26. USDCNY might trade within 7.24-7.25 for a while. EURINR may remain ranged within 88.50-89.50/90 region. USDINR can remain below 83.40 and trade within 83.40-83.20 for a while before eventually breaking higher towards 83.50-83.60 in the coming weeks.

The US Treasury yields have come down slightly but supports are there to limit the downside and keep the upside open for more rise. The German yields have come down sharply. But the broader trend is up and the downside could be limited. We can expect the yields to rise back and move higher in the coming days. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI are oscillating in a sideways range. This could just be a consolidation within the overall uptrend.

Dow Jones has bounced above 38000 but is likely to face resistance at 38500. DAX has recovered above 18000 contrary to our bearish view. If it sustains, a further rise towards 18400-18500 can be seen. Nifty fell sharply on Last friday but might get support at current levels or at 22000. Shanghai is attempting to break above the upper end of the sideways range and looks bullish to target further upside.

Crude prices and Precious Metals are likely to trade sideways for a while. Copper remains bullish for the near term. Natural Gas lacks strength but has scope to see an eventual rise while above the support at 1.90-1.80.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.

30 Apr 24. 0847 IST or 0317 GMT or 2317 EST


Good Morning!

The Dollar Index can see near-term trade within 106.20-105.40 while Euro can test support at 1.0675/0650 before bouncing back from there. EURJPY and USDJPY have seen a strong fluctuation within a very broad range and lack directional clarity just now. While below 171.50 and 160.50, both pairs can remain ranged within 171.50-166 and 160.50-154 region respectively. Aussie and Pound have dipped slightly and can fall while below 0.66 and 1.26 respectively. USDCNY has recovered from the sharp fall seen yesterday and can now head towards 7.25. EURINR may remain ranged within 89.60-89.00 region. USDINR rose sharply towards 83.50 yesterday. If it falls from 83.50, it can continue to trade within 83.50-83.30 else a sharp break above 83.50 will be strongly bullish towards 83.60/70 or even higher.

The US Treasury and the German yields have come down well extending the fall seen on Friday. Further fall is expected in the next few sessions within an overall medium-term uptrend. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI are oscillating in a sideways range and could turn eventually bullish while above 7.15%. This could just be a consolidation within the overall uptrend.

Dow Jones and Nikkei are heading towards their immediate resistance which if holds can lead to a fall back. DAX is bullish while above 18000. Nifty and Shanghai look bullish to target their key resistance in the near term.

Crude prices and Precious Metals are likely to trade sideways for a while. Copper has scope to test key resistance at 4.8. Thereafter we need to see if it falls back or break higher. Natural Gas is bullish while above 1.90.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.

02 May 24. 0858 IST or 0328 GMT or 2328 EST

Good Morning!

Dollar Index has fallen across major currencies after Fed kept the interest steady at 5.25%-5.50% and mentioned that they do not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%. The Dollar Index, EURUSD, EURJPY, USDJPY are ranged within 106.50-105.50/105, 1.06/0650-1.0750, 168.169-166 & 154/152-160 respectively. Aussie can test 0.6580-0.66 on the upside before coming down towards 0.6450 on the downside, Pound below 1.26 looks bearish to 1.24 in the near term. USDCNY is closed today. EURINR may remain ranged within revised range of 88.50–89.50/90. USDINR can continue to trade within 83.50-83.30 for now. A sharp break above 83.50 will be strongly bullish towards 83.60/70 or even higher.

The US Treasury yields fell post the FED policy meeting where it kept the rates unchanged and is not expected to cut rates before Dec-24. The German yields look mixed as the 10yr yield has dipped slightly while the 30yr yield has risen. However, the overall medium-term trend is Up. The Indian GOI yields (10yr and 5y) can trade within the broad 7.15-7.20/22% region.

Dow Jones recovery fades on the expectation of FED keeping the interest rate higher for Longer. Dow Jones, Dax and Nikkei looks range bound for a while. Nifty has dipped but chances of rise towards 23000 cannot be ruled out before a corrective fall happens.

Crude prices have tumbled after Fed Chair Powell stated that "it will probably take longer than previously expected" for the bank to become sufficiently confident in the trajectory of inflation before beginning to lower interest rates. However, crude prices have near term supports coming up which if holds can provide some respite. Precious Metals remains ranged but have immediate resistance overhead which if holds can bearish in the coming sessions. Copper has fallen back but has support at 4.50 which if holds can keep it ranged within 4.50-4.70 for while. Natural Gas looks ranged between 1.85/1.90-2.10.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.

03 May 24. 0857 IST or 0327 GMT or 2327 EST

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index is trading lower within its range of 106.50-105.50/105, while EURUSD is headed towards 1.0750. EURJPY and USDJPY are trading near their immediate supports around 164 and 152 which if held, can bring them back towards the previous levels on the upside. Aussie can soon test 0.6580-0.66 before coming down towards 0.65, Pound is testing the resistance at 1.2550. If the resistance holds; can drag it lower to 1.24 in the near term. USDCNY is closed today. EURINR may remain ranged within revised range of 88.50–89.50/90. USDINR can continue to trade within 83.50-83.30 for now. The US NFP & Unemployment data releases would be important to watch today as they might impact the volatility in the markets for the next few sessions.

The US Treasury and the German yields have come down. Both the Treasury and the German yields have room to fall further from here. Thereafter they can rise back again. The US NFP and Unemployment data release today will be important to watch. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI are poised at the lower end of their range. We will have to wait and watch if they are bouncing back today to retain the range or extend the fall further.

Dow Jones looks range bound. Dax can fall towards its lower end of the 18250-17600 range. Nifty has scope to test its key resistance before a corrective fall can be seen from there. Nikkei and Shanghai are closed.

Crude prices have managed to hold above their near term support and might bounce back soon. Gold, Silver and Copper have fallen and may remain bearish for the near term. Key focus is on the US NFP data today. Natural Gas can trade sideways between 1.85/1.90-2.10 for a while.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.

06 May 24. 0841 IST or 0311 GMT or 2311 EST

Good Morning!

Volatility seeped in on Friday as the US NFP came lower at 175K than the previous of 315K and the unemployment rate came higher at 3.9%. The Dollar Index tested 104.50 before becoming stable within its range of 106.50-104.50, while EURUSD rose to 1.08 and may continue to remain ranged within 1.0650-1.0850 for a while. EURJPY and USDJPY look stable above 164 and 152 respectively and can reattempt to rise towards 168 and 154/156 in the medium term. Aussie has been rising as expected and can reverse after testing resistance near 0.67/6750 while above 0.66. Pound rose sharply to test 1.2634 before slipping down Below 1.26, it can fall towards 1.24. USDCNY plunged sharply and could be headed towards 7.20/18 if no immediate reversal is seen over today and tomorrow. EURINR is back within its range of 88.50–89.50/90 after testing 90.1937 on the upside. USDINR may trade between 83.30 and 83.50/55 this week.

The US Treasury and the German yields continue to move down. The Treasury yields were dragged down after the US NFP and Unemployment data release. The US added 175K to the non-farm payroll, less than market expectation of 243K. The unemployment inched up to 3.9% from 3.8%. Both the Treasury and the German yields have room to fall further from here before a fresh rise happens. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI are also coming down. They can fall further to test their supports and then resume their overall uptrend.

Dow Jones has risen, breaking above upper end of the sideways range. While this break sustains, a further rise looks possible in the near term. Dax and Nifty looks mixed and are likely to trade sideways for a while. Nikkei is closed. Shanghai can rise towards its key resistance before a corrective fall can happen.

Crude prices are near their key supports, which if hold, can lead to a bounce back soon. Gold looks bearish for the near term. Silver and Copper have bounced but could face resistance at 27.30/50 and 4.60 respectively. Natural Gas has risen towards 2.2 and can rise further to 2.3.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.

07 May 24. 0850 IST or 0320 GMT or 2320 EST

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index is headed to 105.50/106 while the Euro maintains below 1.08 for now. USDJPY and EURJPY can rise towards 156/157 and 168 respectively while USDCNY has plunged to 7.2073 before bouncing back to current levels of 7.2174. The downside of 7.20/18 would be negated on a sharp rise back to 7.23/25 region. Aussie and Pound can trade between 0.67-0.65 and 1.25-1.2650 for a few days. EURINR could dip to 89.50/20 while below 90.10/15. USDINR can trade within 83.55/57-83.40/30 for a few days.

The US Treasury and the German yields continue to move down in line with our expectation. Both the Treasury and the German yields have room to fall further in the near-term and then can possibly reverse higher again. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have declined sharply on Monday. They are poised at their crucial support. Failure to bounce back immediately can see an extended fall from here and then can see a reversal.

Decent rise is seen in most of the equites expect Nifty. Dow Jones can rise towards 39200-39500. Thereafter we need to see if any fall back happens or not. Dax is moving up towards the upper band of the range. Need to see if it breaks on the upside and extend the rise or not. Nifty looks mixed for the near term. Nikkei has risen towards its resistance which if holds, can lead to a fall in the near term. Shanghai can rise towards its key resistance before a corrective fall can happen.

Brent and WTI can rise while above the support at $83-82 and $78-77.50 respectively. Gold can test 2350-2400 before a fall back can be seen. Silver and Copper has risen above their resistance at 27.50 and 4.60 respectively and may extend the rise further while the break sustains. Natural Gas needs to rise past 2.3 for increased bullishness.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.

08 May 24. 0848 IST or 0318 GMT or 2318 EST

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index and Euro are headed to 105.50/106 and 1.07 respectively. USDJPY and EURJPY can rise towards 156/157 and 168 respectively. USDCNY has sustained well above 7.22 and can further test 7.23-7.24 in the coming sessions. Aussie can fall to 0.65 if it does not see an immediate rise from current levels while Pound has broken below 1.25 and could be headed towards 1.24/2350 before bottoming out in the near term. EURINR could dip to 89.50/20 while USDINR can continue trade within 83.57/55-83.40/30.

The US Treasury yields have dipped further. There is room to fall more from here to test their supports and then a reversal is possible. The German yields on the other hand have come close to their support. We expect the support to hold, and the yields can rise going forward. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI bounced back yesterday. They will need a strong follow-through rise from here to avoid the extended fall and resume the uptrend from here itself. We will have to wait and watch.

Dow Jones has scope to rise towards 39200-39500. Thereafter we need to see if any fall back happens or not. Strong rise is seen in Dax yesterday and can extend the rise further towards its immediate resistance. Nifty has fallen sharply but might get support at 22200-22000. Nikkei has fallen as the resistance at 39000 is holding well and might fall further from here. Shanghai can rise towards its key resistance at 3200 before a corrective fall can happen.

Crude prices remains subdued but have managed to sustain above their support level. Need to see if the support holds and produces a bounce back or not. Gold is vulnerable to a fall while below 2350-2400. Silver and Copper have fallen back but downside could be limited to 27.00-26.30 and 4.50/4.47 respectively. Natural Gas looks bullish for the near term.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.

09 May 24. 0838 IST or 0308 GMT or 2308 EST

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index and Euro remained stable but are headed to 105.50/106 and 1.07 respectively. USDJPY and EURJPY have risen to test our mentioned targets of 156/157 and 168 respectively. USDCNY holds above 7.22 and can further test 7.23-7.24 in the coming sessions. Aussie can fall to 0.65 if it does not see an immediate rise from current levels while Pound could hold above 1.2450 for a couple of sessions before falling towards 1.24/2350 before bottoming out in the medium term. EURINR could dip to 89.50/20 while below 90. USDINR is likely to hold within the range of 83.57/55-83.40/30.

The US Treasury yields have bounced back. But a strong follow-through rise from here is needed to move further higher. Else a fall to test their supports cannot be ruled out. The German yields are bouncing back from their key supports. While this sustains, there is room to rise more from here. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have inched up. But a strong follow-through rise from here is needed to avoid the fall and resume the uptrend from here itself. We will have to wait and watch.

Dow Jones remains bullish for the near term. DAX is coming closer to its resistance. Need to see if that holds or not. Nifty has recovered slightly from the support at 22200-22000 and while above it, the index has scope to extend the recovery further. Nikkei looks ranged within 39000-37000 for a while. Shanghai has scope to test key resistance at 3200 in the near term before a corrective fall can happen.

Brent and WTI can rise towards their immediate resistance while above the support at $82 and $77.50-77. Gold is vulnerable to a fall while below 2350-2400. Silver has to rise past 28 to become bullish. Else it might trade within 28-26.30 for some time. Copper looks ranged between 4.47/4.50-4.70. Natural Gas outlook is bullish while above 2.1-2.05.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.

10 May 24. 0849 IST or 0319 GMT or 2319 EST

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index tested 105.74 on the upside before coming down and Euro rose sharply to test its resistance near 1.08 after the BOE kept the interest rates unchanged at 5.25% in its meeting held yesterday. USDJPY and EURJPY are rising well towards our mentioned targets of 157 and 168 respectively. USDCNY holds above 7.22 and can further test 7.23-7.24 in the coming sessions. Aussie is nearing the upper end of its range of 0.6550/0.6650, while Pound has bounced back well after the BOE meeting but could face rejection near 1.26 and come down towards 1.24/2350 before bottoming out in the medium term. EURINR could dip to 89.50/20 while below 90-90.2. USDINR is likely to hold within the range of 83.57/55-83.40/30.

The US Treasury yields have come down again failing to sustain the bounce. This keeps alive the chances of seeing a fall first to test their supports. The price action thereafter will need a watch for a reversal. The German yields are getting a follow-through rise after bouncing from their supports. This leaves the outlook positive to see more rise from here. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have to get a strong follow-through rise breaking above their immediate resistances in order to move higher. Else the yields can still fall to test their supports first and then resume the upmove.

Dow Jones is coming closer towards its resistance at 39500. Need to see if Dow breaks higher or falls from there. DAX has broken above its resistance and looks bullish to target further highs. Nifty has fallen sharply below its key support but we need to closely watch 21800 level. A break below it could be further bearish for Nifty. Nikkei looks ranged within 39000-37000 for a while. Shanghai has scope to test key resistance at 3200 in the near term before a corrective fall can happen.

Brent and WTI are heading up towards their immediate resistance while if holds can lead to a fall back in the near term. Gold and Silver have risen sharply above their upper end of the range and have scope to test 2400 and 29 respective. A rise past these is needed for increased bullishness, else the precious metals could witness a fall. Copper is moving up towards its sideways range. Need to see if it breaks on the upside or not. Natural Gas remains bullish for the near term.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.