Decision trends

Just here to put some trends and categories which i catch from news, life or wherever. They have to be based on an actual decision or what usually leads to an expected decision.
Down here is just a list of ideas.

Category list/colors

Number of decision per category made so far

Alignment

Impact/type of impact

Behalf of foreign entity (2)
-Israel (1)
-China (1)

Decoupling (1)

Decision maker(human, A.I, corporation, organization etc..)

Decision time/pace

Public opinion

Corporate opinion

Government opinion

Personal opinion

Divergence of opinion

(Wednesday 20th of March 2024)
https://apnews.com/article/nasdaq-bo...93dc87870484ff

Borse Dubai sells 1.6 billion USD worth of stock of Nasdaq at a 5 dollar discount

Type of decision: decoupling from the U.S financial system. Risk management.
Type of opinion: Government opinion
Decision maker: Unknown

Timing: On the day of FED decision on federal funds rate.
Speculations: Nasdaq are pausing stocks due to lack of liquidity mainly in smaller markets. There is a liquidity crisis coming up. Brokers are unwilling to give margin on shorting for friday.

Comment: Borse Dubai is the state-owned stock exchange of Dubai. This will lead to Borse Dubai being the 2nd largest owner of Nasdaq, down from being the largest. Borse Dubai will keep enough stocks to remain on the board of directors, atleast according to an agreement that spans 18 months into the future.

Thursday 21st of March 2024)
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/21/doj-...-monopoly.html

DoJ’s Merrick Garland sues Apple for running a ’monopoly’

Type of decision: Legal, possible power grab/funding of Government
Type of opinion: Economic government opinion, legal, populism
Decision maker: Whatever committee/Think tank that is designed to raise money for funds(dem)
Decision executioner: Merrick Garland/DoJ

Timing: On the day after FED/FOMC. On a day where the SNB surpricingly lowered rates by 25 bps, and the BoE kept rates unchanged. On a day where the GU went down, dollar went up. And the stock market went up.
In a time where Biden wants to rush to a decision about budget before weekend, and on the same day Biden flexes student debt forgiveness.
Speculations: Process of merging state/companies/religion/military(Attali), funding of government/populism.

Comment: A bit of a trend that became noticeable after 2020, where governments uses public opinion about tech companies to justify lawsuits and power grabs against companies with the most profits.
Often using free market arguments, while at the same time passing laws that forces companies like TikTok to be sold to the government(March 13th 2024).
Apple down 1% before market open, now -3.5%.

Sunday 24th of March 2024 (Earliest publication 17th of March) Motion to parliament
https://cphpost.dk/2024-03-18/news/s...ate-of-israel/

Applicants for danish citizenship must recognize Israel as a state(the state of Israel)

Type of decision: Legal, to the benefit of foreign entity
Type of opinion: Behalf of other nation than own
Decision maker: Foreign interest groups
Decision executioner: Danish parliament/political majority

Timing: In a time of conflict and expansion of the state of Israel’s power, influence and geographical borders.

Comment: No requirements to recognize any other nations in order to get danish citizenship - just the state of Israel.

Sunday 24th of March 2024 (Law passed on friday 22nd of March)
https://www.forbes.com/sites/dariosa...-personal-use/

Germany’s Federal Council approved bill legalizing personal use of cannabis in Germany

Type of decision: Legal
Type of opinion: National drug policy
Decision maker: Social democrats, greens and FDP. Lobbyists.
Decision executioner: Mentioned parties and the state apparatus.

Timing: In a time of americanization of Europe and other parts of the world, where drugs is being treated as a part of personal choice and identity. In a time of rising social unrest, criminality, mental health problems and record profits for big pharmaceutical companies.
In a time where it’s cheaper to make unhealthy choices than to make healthy choices.

Comment: As i see it: a result of importing culture, corporate lobbyism and americanization of european countries. Same culture got imported to Scandinavia about a decade ago, accompanied by american companies like Amazon, dollarcent stores etc.
It results in a dumbing down of the population and teenagers exposed to the drug have their mental development halted at whatever maturity/development they at.
All information published in scientific journals, media etc highlights the benefits of the drug, while releasing ’fact-checkers’ on any negative info. One has to look at military experiments involving the drug from the 40s and 50s to get a better picture. The drug is still classified as chemical warfare agent in some eastern countries.
With considerations to the economy, the drug has certain economic boosting effect by creating the uncritical consumer, also it opens up bigger business for pharma as it pushes for legalization of even more drugs down the road. Could have long-term consequences on skilled labour.

One gets to think about how the british empire kept the chinese addicted to opium once upon a time in the east..

Monday 25th of March 2024
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/hong-k...e-23-1.7153467

Hong Kong swiftly passes new security law that could lead to life imprisonment

Type of decision: Legal
Type of opinion: Political - Withdrawal of citizen rights and security
Decision maker: CCP?
Decision executioner: Hongkong government(HKSAR)

Timing: In a time of increased tension between west and east. In a time where essentially the same kind of laws and de-democratization happens in the west, with less security for it’s citizens and laws that are meant to be open for interpretation to the benefit of state and foreign entities/organizations.

Comment: Will proably lead to an economic decline in the region and refugees in the medium term.
Will strengthen chinese power but can backfire economically, socially and demographically.

Sunday 31st of Match 2024 ( news published on Monday 25th of March )
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/sw...184436350.html
https://www.forexfactory.com/news/12...l-bank-digital

Cooperative SWIFT plans to launch CBDC platform in 12-24 months time

Type of decision: Technological and major financial change
Type of opinion: Financial power
Decision maker: Unclear. America has alot of power over SWIFT, but who has control over America?
One proably has to go into lengthy work of exclusion to even narrow it down, and i’m too lazy for that.
Several organizations driving this change though: 1) WEF 2) JP Morgan 3) IMF 4) Trilateral commission 5) ECB
6) Whatever intelligence groups/Think tanks that’s involved
Decision executioner: SWIFT and all the banks/interbank system who are joined. To opt out is proaby not an option.
Powell wants to distance himself from being portrayed as the one who is responsible, but most likely he will be given an order to execute it too once the debt become unmanageable from a demographic and investment perspective.

Timing: 12-24 months = March of 2025 and March of 2026. Christine Lagarde is enforcing wholesale/retail CBDC in 2025, so i guess it would be ready in 12 months rather than 24 months.
In a time where different opinions who goes against this agenda of digitalization and monopolization of money makes a politician’s or banker’s career short.
There is loads of boat people waiting in line to press the ’yes button’ and have the right opinion and make a career out of it.
None of them i spoke too have any technical or thoughts of consequences, they are just ’optimistic’ and see it as ’progress’, and are happy for the classical back slap and having one story higher house to live in.

Comment: May be the last nail in the coffin of any personal autonomy. Can also end trading as we know it.
Will lead to a planned economy much like the ones found in former communist countries. Socialism and feudalism for the rich and powerful.

"Can also end trading as we know it. Will lead to a planned economy much like the ones found in former communist countries. Socialism and feudalism for the rich and powerful.[/quote]"

As long as there are buyers and sellers, needs and wants, natural resources, technology and knowledge there will always be trading. Trading doesn't revolve around currencies alone. There is stock trading, commodities trading, bond trading, futures trading for hedging and buying and selling of indices. People will still need to invest.
Lastly in the 2nd last paragraph the article talks pf CBDC trading in real time..

"As well as the advance towards CBDCs, Kerigan pointed to a forecast from Boston Consulting Group (BCG) that by 2030 around $16 trillion worth of assets could be "tokenised" - a process where assets like stocks and bonds are transformed into digital chips that can then be issued and traded in real-time."

Traders live of volatility, central banks live of stability.
Same with current situation in Nasdaq/S&P 500, the stock market is artificially being held up by HFT/bots/algorhitms - you can buy 2 million dollar of stocks using 10 dollar in terms of dollar volume in a day juggling stocks around with such.
The stocks that lack too much liquidity which would normally cause them too crash are taken off by Nasdaq, and buyers/sellers have to sell or buy them in off-exchange auctions - effectively taking away any opportunity to make money.
So the ’buyer/seller’ thing don’t hold, you would have to go back many years to see a free market that is decided by buyer/seller demand in the way you mean.
CBDC is the next step in the evolution in this price fixing, it has any and all the features that the state/government/CB wants it to have as it is programmable. For example the brazilian CBDC that got reverse-engineered have code that can freeze funds or drain them at will..

Leverage is being lowered, capital requirements are being elevated and with CBDC it will further lead to price stability and any manipulation will only be possible by the central bank or regional banks.
The mathematics is easy to understand let me give you an example:
100 leverage x 1000 dollar x 1% movement = 1000 dollar gain
10 leverage x 1000 dollar x 10 pip daily range = 10000 x 0.001 = 10 dollar gain
Sure you can trade, but to gain those 1000 dollar you’ll need 100 000 dollar capital requirement to live off the new ’price stability mode’. If it become something like fixed rate currency you might not be able to trade at all unless you at a bank with low-latency HFT access which today no retail traders have.
It’s a slippery slope of seemingly good intentions but the consequences are many and like the above.
This is the ”trend” of regulations and evolution of the market into stability hence the name of this thread ’Decision trends’.

There is a certain risk when increasing one’s exposure during a trend, as it exposes one to potential reversals. I experienced this firsthand many times, when reversals nearly led me to liquidate my positions prematurely.
Despite this i’m willing to amplify my exposure because I believe the likelihood of a reversal has decreased.
One of the things that i discovered with freely floating exchange rates is that volatility peaks at certain areas and diminishes as the trend becomes established.
The transition away from freely floating currencies and towards market stability further reduces the risk of a reversal.
Market participiants haven’t fully grasped the implications of the new rules, their memory is from past experiences pre-pandemic.
I am in no sense immune to these changes, that according to some are happening at an ever increasing rate as technology advances.
By the time all participants have caught up to the changes, the dynamics of this game will change again.
The rewards for currency speculation will eventually align with the risks, and authorities will achieve their objectives of price stability and that is the time we all have to step away from the markets and find new ones.

Thursday 4th of April 2024 (News published 2nd of April)
https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...outbreak-h5n1/

Avian flu found in cattle in Texas. CDC and the whole U.S. government is taking this situation very seriously,” CDC Director Mandy Cohen said in an interview. “We had not seen avian flu in cattle prior to last week. That is new. It’s a reservoir for virus to circulate and potentially, change.

Type of decision: Preparative
Type of opinion: Medical/institutional/government
Decision maker: Unknown
Decision executioner: CDC and the government. The rest of organizations fall under law.

Timing: Almost 2 years exactly since the pandemic got ’called off’ in Europe/Scandinavia(end of March 2022).
About 1 year early ahead of the next pandemic scheduled for 2025.
Could be election-related for U.S in November, Texas is not so popular wants to become independant.

Comment: Proably just preparatory to give a ’heads up’ for all associated organizations a year ahead. The usual evolution cycle of bird to animal and then mutation to be transmissible to man.
I suspect the 2025 pandemic is to test the new laws put in place during the last pandemic, to test how far they can take it.
For example in New York there is a new law where citizens can be dragged out of their apartments only based on suspicion, which of course undermines human rights.
I don’t believe the next pandemic is meant to crash the economy like the previous one, mostly a repetition and to test the totalitarian laws/organization.
Could proably be a good idea to buy medical stocks, security firms etc in the next big dip if one arises/lowers. And to buy a ticket for vacation in a non-totalitarian country one month before christmas or something.
Haven’t figured out how to deal with ’cyber attack year’ yet so that could be another problem for traders after September starts. Which parts of internet is ’non-inclusive’? Which payment methods work when mainstream gone?
It is rumored that there are no available mRNA vaccine for avian flu, so that might be another thing to consider.
If i remember correctly avian flu is airbourne, whereas covid spread mostly by droplets/microdroplets. So might be a more ’rapid’ pandemic.
Anyways avian flu H5N1 has 100% mortality rate, so it leaves little options in terms of vaccination or personal choice. Better be on a boat or island.

Sunday 7th of April 2024
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/05/isra...franchise.html

Mcdonald’s being boycotted in Israel, Arabic countries by a large number of customers, sales down 70-90%.

Type of decision: Moralic, economic
Type of opinion: Opinion of the people
Decision maker: The people, religious leaders
Decision executioner: The people/former customers

Timing: In a time when after what was considered to be an attack on Israel in October 2023, a protest movement was born against the massive retaliation on the Palestinian nation/people and hamas. In a time after a time when most big companies thought the correct thing was to support Israel’s assault by various goodness signalling, and now trying to step back/whitewash those comments and supportive actions as opinion has changed in favour of Palestine.

Comment: One of my favourite type of decisions: collective action. There isn’t much ’if’s’ or ’but’s’, if people decided not to buy, nothing will be sold, simple as that. With great consequences.
I believe it’s a more long-lasting decision too. For example if an oil company would spill oil into the atlantic, most people would condemn such but would they take action? I think not. They would be driving their petrol-fueled cars the next day, maybe send a donation to Greenpeace or whatever.
And i believe as information spread about this - more and more people will catch on to the trend and boycott Mcdonald’s across the world. Remaining customers will be truckers, yuppies, tourists and opportunists.
Demographics can play a big role too, as mostly younger generations are those who regularly visit Mcdonald’s to eat. Younger generations are the most politically aware of all age groups, and proably most likely to take action.
Also the middle east has a younger population, and a big proportion of the european younger population originates from the middle east.
So: Boom! Almost the whole middle east population gone as customers, proably half of european customers, half of asia’s younger population particularly from malaysia/indonesisa gone, and proably a large chunk of the american younger generation too. However i think hamburgers are more culturally important in America.
This could be a big shortselling opportunity, and also a big buying opportunity once the sell-off comes to an end.
Could we get Mcdonald’s to reach 50 dollar/share? Or will the institutional investors save them? Yes yes yes… Mcdonald’s is one of institutional favourites, so that could counteract it.

This week was rather decisive. Many important news and events, many opinions and comments.
I tried to give some advice in the Euro -thread as i was accumulating short positions and explained that i usually try to think of the whole week on sunday/monday, rather than what happen on the screen in the moment.
Also been getting the advice from some more senior traders that ”shouldn’t try to predict”. Well for me i can get rather bored staring at screens and predictions/trial & error keeps me awake.
I rather keep it simple than to have 3-4 screens and lines/charts everywhere giving me conflicting information.
Anyways the short on monday/tuesday on the euro was the right call, it declined almost 250 pips in value from my initial positions.
There was some ’position traders’ who saw some 20-30 pip upward movement as ’bullish’ so i assume they get their monthly signals on the day. I didn’t comment on their analysis as my good friend adviced me not to.
To be honest i agree with many traders that it’s proably more profitable to trade alone, without being influenced or influencing others. However i think one shouldn’t strive to be comfortable, one might lose adaptation that way which means that the one day when conditions changes one might have trouble getting out from that comfort zone.
What was hard for me this week was going long on gold on wednesday, it was a conflict with my analysis. It would have been reasonable to assume that gold would go down with the rest but it didn’t.
My position in gold got in danger on thursday morning, with some kind warnings from other traders i decided to hold my longs. The positions became very profitable and i closed it a bit to early.
I think it was good i closed it early though as there was absolutely no reference how high it could go, as it made all-time highs.
Went in at 2322-2328 and out at 2355. It reached a maximum the day after at 2431.

Something i learned from this week is that you got to believe in your analysis, and look beyond the numbers and the charts. It helps to have an overall theme but for me i’m a blank page on sunday to monday. Developing mathematical expressions and thinking is necessary work.
I wish the banks good luck in their plans, it’s better for development to have competition and i don’t agree with the Basel-3 end either. I think J.P Morgan and Citi should step in.

Wednesday 17th of April 2024
https://www.politico.eu/article/germ...s-on-weekends/

Germany's transport minister Volker Wissing wants to ban germans from driving cars on the weekend

Type of decision: Restriction of population mobility
Type of opinion: Government opinion/Agenda 2030
Decision maker: Unknown
Decision executioner: Liberal/coalition, German parliament

Comment: Another step in a trend of decision meant to restrict personal freedom and further dismantle liberal and democratic values in our society.
That it is a Liberal suggesting it is clear proof that those parties in power are not true to their ideology, and that decisions must be made somewhere else.
To complicate the matter further we have someone from the green party protesting against the proposition with liberal arguments against a liberal!
For those reading this: Welcome to Europe!

Friday 19th of April 2024
https://theponzipapers.substack.com/...n-fire-outside
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-i...well_Azzarello

Democrat investigative journalist Maxwell Azzarello sets himself on fire outside Trump trial

Type of decision: Self-sacrifice
Type of opinion: Protest against the takeover
Decision maker: Personal decision
Decision executioner: Maxwell Azzarello

Comment: The man sacrificed himself to highlight what he as an investigative journalist had discovered.
There is a video circulating of him being on fire, but other commentators recommended not to watch it.
Anyways i posted his manifesto above, can copy/store it before it gets deleted. I’ll let people form their own opinion in this matter.
Keep in mind it’s common with character assassination by media after events like this.
Here a few pictures from Twitter:

Climate goals Demands/laws on buildings that are not ’energy-efficient’ option for landlord to renovate houses to become energy-efficient, or to let renters pay the ’cold rent’( a rent where energy/heating/water is not included) to motivate renters to use less energy.

Fact 1: The houses with least energy efficiency are those mass produced apartment-complexes/condos produced during the 60s/70s
these houses have the people with the lowest income as renters.
Energy efficiency per square meter is lowest.

Fact 2: The houses with the highest energy efficiency per square meter are the newly built, or built in later decades.
High income people live here. There is no demand to increase the energy efficiency of these houses as conditions are met.

Consequence 1: The low income people either pay very high energy prices/water, or the landlord renovates.
Tenants pay energy increased % in cost of living
Landlord renovates Landlord raises rents cause of costly renovations increased % in cost of living
i.e ”Inflation in rents”

Consequence 2: The high income people has no demand to increase their energy efficiency on them. They have the highest energy expenditure, whereas the low income people have the lowest energy expenditure.
So they are able to save more money from yearly wage growth as they are unaffected by the largest components of inflation which is housing and energy.
So deflation in costs, inflation in income.

Conclusion: The biggest component of inflation which is housing and energy, are passed on to the people who are most energy-efficient(the poor).
These costs are reduced for those who are most energy-inefficient(the wealthy).
Hence the rich gets richer and the poor gets poorer. This leads to inequality and a class society, something socialism in the past was actively fighting against.

This why we can draw the conclusion that the biggest parts of inflation are due to institutional inflation due to the climate agenda, which forces a large part of the population to pay for the expenses of the energy transition.
Meanwhile those who sit on the largest part of the capital don’t pay anything at all for this energy transition, instead they are getting richer because of it! As they can invest excess capital in all the sectors that benefits from itor get tax breaks.

This means most part of the ”inflation” is not due to a ”Hot market” or ”overheating economy” like the media usually tells you.
It’s due do decisions made in Brussels and Davos. And yes every central bank is in on it, and is not independant in fact they talk about the climate all the time.

Decision Davos Laws in Brussels Costs of housing/energy Inflation Interest rates Borrowing costs for companies Borrowing costs passed on to end-consumer Costs of housing/energy + food/products Human capital as workforce gets depleted Raising wages or training migrants to replace depletion Costs for companies Cost passed on to consumer or companies lose investment Costs of living including housing cause of wage gains or migrant training

I could make the circle longer but this is enough, as you might imagine this is a vicious cycle that reinforces itself. The point taken is that the ”inflation” is based on decisions, which is carried out by institutions, hence institutional inflation.
And it’s consequences creates social classes by dividing people into rich and poor. Thus any talks from the decision makers that it is to fight poverty, create equality or make more inclusiveness is a lie.

It creates more poverty, inequality and more people will be excluded from the system.

Not a decision but rather a consequence of such.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Behavioral_sink

"Having reached a level of high population density, the mice began exhibiting a variety of abnormal, often destructive, behaviors including refusal to engage in courtship, and females abandoning their young. By the 600th day, the population was on its way to extinction. Though physically able to reproduce, the mice had lost the social skills required to mate"

"Calhoun's worries primarily concerned a human population surge and a potentially independent increase in urbanization as an early stage of rendering much of a given society functionally sterile. Under such circumstances, he hypothesized, society would move from some modality of overpopulation towards a much more irredeemable underpopulation."

So we can think of urbanization as a population illusion, living in the city gives the illusion that the population still is healthy and reproducing cause it often lets in young people for work opportunities.
At the same time the decision makers are located in these big city areas and therefore are under more optimistic impression of the changes in demographics.

Are we at this turning point now? like the rats, the antisocial behavior has been mirrored by us all and even encouraged/made normal.

Yep, the numbers of incels like you are on the rise.