Daily GBP/JPY analysis

The [USD INDEX] has been on a one-way street lower over recent sessions. ...

The [USD INDEX] has been on a one-way street lower over recent sessions. Firmer than forecast US data in the form of the Chicago PMI (60.2) and the Michigan sentiment (85.3) did little to prop. Month, quarter and half-year end flows were largely Usd negative in nature, while Thursday's decision by the Fed to leave interest rates at 5.25% and the accompanying statement has also been a weight. Bernanke and co droped the "elevated" tag from the description of core inflation and even suggested readings on core inflation have improved modestly in recent months. As a result, the 10-year yield is dropping back towards 5.00 and the Usd Index could well be capped in the short-term into 81.90/00. next downside targets come at 81.67/70 and 81.53/55.

If you can see 500 pips down from here, I advise you to call Scotland Yard and say where you've parked the Mercedes,

yes sir, do it right away sir . btw i don't like Mercedes, i like Honda and Toyota

Just kidding, sorry. But I don't see big time reason for such a drop. Unless UJ breaks below a massive trendline in the 122.30/00 area and push

i know . but wouldn't it will be more profitable for big player to push it down from here and buy again when BOE increase their interest. 241 might not come today. could be tomorrow or the day after tomorrow. who know. for now, just whatch the market and stay out

Hell yeah NFP does things like this before it comes out from my experience so I stay mostly out this week.

yes,
244.70-75

26-27 jun

Yen Recovers after Tankan, Dollar Eyes ISM Manufacturing Index

The Japanese yen recovers mildly today after Q2 Tankan survey showed that confidence among Japanese business remained buoyant. Headline diffusion index for large manufacturers was unchanged at 23. Meanwhile, large non-manufacturers also remained at 22. Capital expenditure increased by 7.7%, which is considerably higher than prior 2.9% but was below expectation of 9.0%. But after all, the report did little to change markets' expectation that the BOJ will probably hike in August again.
Dollar edges lower today as sentiments on the greenback remains weak. A bunch of manufacturing data will be released today from US and Europe with special focus on the ISM manufacturing index in the US which is expected to remain steady at 55 in Jun. The index bottomed at 49.3 in Jan but recovered nicely since than, suggesting that manufacturing businesses are starting to pick up momentum again. One the other hand, the price paid index could have already topped at 73 in Apr and is expected to retreat further from 71 to 69 in Jun, indicating reduction in pipeline inflation pressure. Manufacturing PMI in Germany, Eurozone and UK are also due today and are expected to remain steadily close to prior mild expansionary figure. Meanwhile, Swiss PMI is expected to rise from 58.9 to 59.8.
USD/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 122.88; (P) 123.22; (R1) 123.49; more
USD/JPY's rebound from 122.22 was limited at 123.55, failing to take out mentioned 123.53 resistance decisively, i.e the fall from 124.13 is not confirmed to be completed yet. Subsequent fall has now pushed USD/JPY below 122.80 support, which indicates correction from 124.13 is probably still in progress for another test of 122.22 support before completion. On the upside above 123.53 is needed to turn intraday bias back to the upside for retest of 124.13 high.
In the bigger picture rise from 115.13 is still in progress with 122.01/05 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 120.76 to 124.13 at 122.05 and 23.6% retracement of 115.13 to 124.13 at 122.01) remains intact. Such rally is treated as resumption of the rise from 108.99, which in turn, is the resumption of whole up trend from 101.66 after interim correction has completed with three waves down from 121.38 to 108.99. Further rally is expected to be seen to next medium term target of resistance zone of 100% projection of 101.65 to 121.38 from 108.99 at 128.72 and 100% projection of 108.99 to 122.17 from 115.13 at 128.31. Break of 122.01/05 cluster support will indicate rise from 115.13 has completed and bring deeper correction. But still, rise from 108.99 is still in force as long as pull back is contained well above 115.13 low.
Also, note that USD/JPY is staying comfortably above the long term falling trend line (147.68 to 135.20). Multi-year consolidation pattern that started from 147.60 should have already completed. But, whether current rise from 101.65 represents the resumption of whole up trend from 79.75 remains to be seen. Note that above mentioned medium term projection target of 100% projection of 108.99 to 122.17 from 115.13 at 128.31 and 100% projection of 101.65 to 121.38 from 108.99 at 128.72 are in proximity to 78.6% of 135.20 to 101.65 at 127.95. This cluster resistance zone will be important to determine the long term trend.

Update


WE WILL MOVE OUR SL to 247.40 >>> Unrealised profit : 100+ PIPS

Many thanks

Hey Clusterwise!

At the risk of minor irritation please could you make your charts a tiny bit smaller, It seems to be messing up the thread size.

Good call by the way, I, unfortunately, am not doing magnificently this morning, alas all seemed rosy at the tankan.

Thinking its about time on next 4hr bar to go long and hold them

maybe around 45.85

currently short the terminator 0118 0109

cad longs maybe 0550

I'm also long

I notice RVI diverging upwards. Is that a good sign, in your opinion?

Dear SiDuS
you are my master becouse of i am useing your method for GBPJPY.
i am useing v01
what yoy thing v02 is good for new traders?

what about your new method

Now on the way to break last low 246.21

The second top has been confirmed too 246.79

good luck sellers

many thanks

Well lets see about that.

Broken


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