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  • #36,161
  • Mar 6, 2024 9:10am Mar 6, 2024 9:10am
Quoting Frag8383
Hi everyone, I hope you are all doing well, Quick question, when is the price to overextended to enter a trade? Im asking this because I feel Im entering a bit late and my trades go well into profit but they are not hitting the take profit that is 1.5 so is not a massive TP that is hard to hit. For example you can say enter on a rejection of a high volume zone like many people do here but for Hidden Gap a few post above shows a entry that is weel over the high volume bar. So the question remains how do you avoid entering to late or chasing price...
Its funny you asked this because its something I just recently dealt with.

The short answer is: Get away from using a fixed RR. I'm not really sure how you trade so if you're a background trader then look to the last 2-3 days for VSA supply/demand areas which price could reverse or if you trade current PA then watch for price to react to countermanding signals.

These last 2 months, take EU for example, has been consolidating. Daily chart, price ranges sideways for 5+ days and a lot of the days are less than 40 pips. With PA like that you aren't going to get any meaningful RR.
  • #36,162
  • Edited 9:56am Mar 6, 2024 9:16am | Edited 9:56am
Today's ADP non farm gave a nice little bump in price. Today I slept in and missed a really nice EURAUD short that occurred during Asia. EURAUD is more or less the inverse of AUDUSD, so because EA has been dropping off a proper setup only buys on AU.

I'll leave a little bit on just to see what happens.
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  • #36,163
  • Edited 6:16pm Mar 6, 2024 4:31pm | Edited 6:16pm
Quoting Anotan
{quote} Its funny you asked this because its something I just recently dealt with. The short answer is: Get away from using a fixed RR. I'm not really sure how you trade so if you're a background trader then look to the last 2-3 days for VSA supply/demand areas which price could reverse or if you trade current PA then watch for price to react to countermanding signals. These last 2 months, take EU for example, has been consolidating. Daily chart, price ranges sideways for 5+ days and a lot of the days are less than 40 pips. With PA like that you...
I trade current price action . I look for oversold/overbought conditions. No indicators. And the I look for vsa signals. I used to trade using supply demand zones, you don't have the issue of being overextended since is very easy to know when you are far from an area but I remove it because I find the zones unreliable and I prefer to trade as previously mentioned
For me not using a fixed RR is a bigger problem, not because I don't have the time to be Infront of the computer but because I go nuts. I know that the ideal approach is to control the trade manually but I do not have enough self control. So I have to place the trade and go.
I'm going to start to go for a risk/reward of 1/1.2 like that I will not get the most profit, but around 80% of my trades will be successful.
Let see how it goes

Thanks
Kind regards
  • #36,164
  • Mar 7, 2024 12:59am Mar 7, 2024 12:59am
Quick little Short on AJ. I'll do a partial and see if the rest of the trade will continue to run, but protect your trade when price reaches an area of previous demand.

Areas of Supply/Demand aren't always perfect. Price isn't always going to reverse on the dot like yesterday's AU long. Here today price popped above an area of supply on low volume. Shocking that it fell, isn't it?
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  • #36,165
  • Mar 7, 2024 2:36am Mar 7, 2024 2:36am
No Supply back into an area of previous supply.

Was nervous there for a a little bit as it looked like price wasn't going to break that M15 ND high.
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  • #36,166
  • Edited Mar 8, 2024 4:17am Mar 7, 2024 10:13pm | Edited Mar 8, 2024 4:17am
Im not a big trend line guy, I think they're very situational in Forex.

AU slipped below the mid point of the trend channel, it could be losing steam. Plan is to close when it pops back up to the mid point.


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Edit: I'm flat, NFP in 3h.

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  • #36,167
  • Apr 9, 2024 4:18pm Apr 9, 2024 4:18pm
Hi guys,

I hope you are all well,

I know that many people here have been asking for ages for HLC bar chart for MT4 and is very hard to find I have taken ages to find one that really works without problems.

And is Free

https://www.mql5.com/es/market/produ...urce=External#

I hope it helps

Thanks
Kind regards
  • #36,168
  • Edited 8:18pm Apr 10, 2024 7:25pm | Edited 8:18pm
Hi guys,

I’m looking at charts past days and see places where I would have entered and what would I have done and so on.

I would explain what I would have done and I will like people’s opinion.

The chart is a 5 min chart of XAUUSD, Monday 8th of April in case anyone wants to have a look at their own charts. The trend on the 1 Hour chart was up and on the 15 M – 1H was big volume.

The black bars at the bottom represent big volumes.

1 – Wide range bar on big volume – next bar down
2 – Smaller spread bar than previous bar, volume bigger and closing on the top part – next bar up – we could start looking at possible signals to go up if prices do not close below this bar
3 – Close above bar 2 and confirms the strength of bar 2, now we have to wait for a retest of bar 2 on low volume
4– Wide range bar on volume above average, not as high as bar 2 but very close to it – next bar is down so there must have been selling on this bar
5– No supply bar – smaller spread and lower volume than previous 2 bars – This bar comes back to the bar to test the high volume zone
6– This a squat bar, small spread with volume higher and higher than the average. Does not close below bar 5 so bar 5 still valid NS – Some people call this bat a High Volume Test since is on the Bar 2 zone
7- Closes above the NS bar 5
8– Another wide spread bar on rising volume above average and the next bar down

And the price falls!!!!!

Like I mentioned is not a trade that I took, just analysing and trying to improve my trading, this area has taken my interest because I’m not going to lie, is a trade that I would have taken and LOST!!!!

I would have look only a bar 2 with a bullish reaction, then a break of the high on bar 3, then a retest of high volume zone on bar 5 on low volume and lastly the entry would have been on bar 7 when the price closes above bar 5 and the stop would have been hit!!!! Yihhha Yes there is big volume on bar 4 but then when it test the high volume bar, we get on bar 5 a NS and on the next bar 6 we see volume coming in so I would have been comfortable taking the trade

After reading trough the thread and having a look at some material from Tom Williams, I would not have taken the trade. The reason is that everyone on this thread and Tom Williams, for SOS and SOW they consider only wide spread bars on big volume. The only case that a small spread bar is considered SOS or SOW is when there is a small spread bar at the highs/lows with Ultra High volume and is called End of a rising market like Bar 2 (small spread very high volume making lower lows).

So after reading all the material I would not have considered bar 6 a sign of strength like I previously thought and I would have considered bar 4 a big sign of weakness.

Also Bar 6 can be considered a Test like I mentioned before, but is a test on high volume and they are more likely to fail.

So my questions are:

You would not have taken the trade because Bar 6 is a high volume test and more likely to fail?

If Bar 6 was on low volume, volume below the previous 2 bars, would you have taken the trade and not considered bar 4 as a red flag and enough reason not to enter the trade?

You would not have taken the trade even if bar 6 was on volume lower than the previous 2 bars because of the weakness of bar 4?

Please give opinions, maybe I’m looking at things the wrong way, let me know what you would have done and what would have you look at.

Thanks
Kind regards

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  • #36,169
  • Apr 11, 2024 12:37am Apr 11, 2024 12:37am
Quoting Frag8383
Hi guys, I’m looking at charts past days and see places where I would have entered and what would I have done and so on. I would explain what I would have done and I will like people’s opinion. The chart is a 5 min chart of XAUUSD, Monday 8th of April in case anyone wants to have a look at their own charts. The trend on the 1 Hour chart was up and on the 15 M – 1H was big volume. The black bars at the bottom represent big volumes. 1 – Wide range bar on big volume – next bar down 2 – Smaller spread bar than previous bar, volume bigger and closing...
i actually looked at that, there was a setup during Asia i didn t take cos it never retested the AR and didn t want to take the break of the AR on low vol, and then the fib zone which is actually ur picture. my take on that. Second pic is the setup i didn t take waiting for the retest but it just went
Edit> to answer ur questions the way i see it it it tries to move up but every time vol increases resulting in lower prices i would not go long untill it cleares that area. Spikes in vol on 5m may come against our intendind direction and that might cause them to wait and accumulate some more (shake out the weak sellers in this case that apear there). doesn t mean go short as long as the hrly background is still bullish like it was in the case of Gold. Also high vol tends to be tested, hence why so many stop hunts, so maybe make it a habbit and wait for that fake break cos a lot of the times it does it and increases the probability of the trade working out imo ofc. cheers
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  • #36,170
  • Apr 11, 2024 4:11am Apr 11, 2024 4:11am
case in point
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  • #36,171
  • Apr 11, 2024 4:32am Apr 11, 2024 4:32am
Quoting 1odi
{quote} i actually looked at that, there was a setup during Asia i didn t take cos it never retested the AR and didn t want to take the break of the AR on low vol, and then the fib zone which is actually ur picture. my take on that. Second pic is the setup i didn t take waiting for the retest but it just went Edit> to answer ur questions the way i see it it it tries to move up but every time vol increases resulting in lower prices i would not go long untill it cleares that area. Spikes in vol on 5m may come against our intendind direction and that...
Hi,

Thanks for the reply,

I always trade using the AR, the thing is that I do not wait until is broken and then retested because many many times the retest does never happen and I miss to many trades. Is more I was going to PM you to see what did you do about it, but is not possible to PM you.

Anyway what I do is I look for a High/bottom, then I wait for AR and then a retest of the high/bottom, with a test or NS/ND and then enter, so is like M/W formation. The problem with the way I do it, as it happen on my last post, you could end up with volume above your entry which is not good

Thanks
Kind regards
  • #36,172
  • Apr 11, 2024 4:44am Apr 11, 2024 4:44am
Quoting Frag8383
{quote} Hi, Thanks for the reply, I always trade using the AR, the thing is that I do not wait until is broken and then retested because many many times the retest does never happen and I miss to many trades. Is more I was going to PM you to see what did you do about it, but is not possible to PM you. Anyway what I do is I look for a High/bottom, then I wait for AR and then a retest of the high/bottom, with a test or NS/ND and then enter, so is like M/W formation. The problem with the way I do it, as it happen on my last post, you could end up with...
yeah, sry about that, i close pm s years ago cos i posted few charts and then i was swamped with pms... anyways, u think exactly how i used to think when i thought i had it all figured out lol. would not even wait for AR to break let alone for tests// now after i kept getting murdered i taught myself patience meaning i almost always wait for AR to break or if the AR isn t clear there s always a prev resist/support that get s broken. the trick for me is 2 see low vol where there used to be sellers or buyers/ hence the tests of broken suppport and resistance. the cleaner a setup is the easier is for me to accept the loss cos let s face it no strategy wins 100% of the time. so now i tend to wait for clean background, clean SOW or SOS, AR or SR broken and rettested etc. Sometimes i ll enter on just the AR break on low vol but i ll do that if the distance to where the SL goes isn t 2 big. if it is then i wait for the restest and look for NS or ND. that s why i didn t took GOLD long monday night during Asia/ the setup was perfect but my SL should ve went below the SH and i wasn t ok with that so i waited for the retest that never came. M and Ws are powerfull setup specially in the right background and with volume in the right places. trick is to wait for those clean looking setups if u gonna risk. hope that answers some questions. cheers
  • #36,173
  • Apr 11, 2024 9:12am Apr 11, 2024 9:12am
Quoting Frag8383
Hi guys, I’m looking at charts past days and see places where I would have entered and what would I have done and so on. I would explain what I would have done and I will like people’s opinion. The chart is a 5 min chart of XAUUSD, Monday 8th of April in case anyone wants to have a look at their own charts. The trend on the 1 Hour chart was up and on the 15 M – 1H was big volume. The black bars at the bottom represent big volumes. 1 – Wide range bar on big volume – next bar down 2 – Smaller spread bar than previous bar, volume bigger and closing...
Bar 1 shouldn't be seen as strength.

Look at the previous bar, it's an up thrust so bar 1 is price reacting to the up thrust. Also 3 bars to the left of bar 1 is a bit of strength with a 2 bar rally which means bar 1 could also be absorption with sellers pushing through previous buyers. This is why it's easier to look for strength into fresh new ground, when you're in the thick of things trading you don't have to think about this stuff.

Bar 4, you recognize this is a countermanding signal. Ignore countermanding signals at your peril as Tom always said. Don't analyze PA below the close of bar 4.

Look at that 16:00 bar. High volume down bar into fresh new ground, no PA to the left of it for the previous 5 bars. This is your setup, we see a trend change and then some low volume down bars as price moves up. What else do you need?
  • #36,174
  • Apr 11, 2024 10:08am Apr 11, 2024 10:08am
This definitely isn't a perfect rule.. but its something I like to keep in my tool box is when you see a big markup on news like NFP/CPI/Interest rates then the next day trade in the same direction as the markup. If big money is marking up price on news, there is a chance it will be for a big move.

On USDCAD today was waiting to see if price would return to yesterday's HVC, but price fell on big volume. If you're trading on SM's coattails then you follow suite.
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  • #36,175
  • Apr 11, 2024 12:37pm Apr 11, 2024 12:37pm
Great to see some lively discussion in the thread again.

On another note, is anyone trading Springs w/ VSA? I've come to the realization that discretionary trading w/ VSA was too much to juggle, so I've pared back every setup outside of Springs and will focus on it exclusively for now.
  • #36,176
  • Apr 11, 2024 1:08pm Apr 11, 2024 1:08pm
Quoting Anotan
{quote} Bar 1 shouldn't be seen as strength. Look at the previous bar, it's an up thrust so bar 1 is price reacting to the up thrust. Also 3 bars to the left of bar 1 is a bit of strength with a 2 bar rally which means bar 1 could also be absorption with sellers pushing through previous buyers. This is why it's easier to look for strength into fresh new ground, when you're in the thick of things trading you don't have to think about this stuff. Bar 4, you recognize this is a countermanding signal. Ignore countermanding signals at your peril as Tom...
Yep I did not recognize the bar 4 as weakness I used to look only at high volume bars, that bar not being the highest of last 20 would not have been taken into account

Getting closer to succeed
  • #36,177
  • Apr 11, 2024 3:45pm Apr 11, 2024 3:45pm
Quoting Frag8383
{quote} Yep I did not recognize the bar 4 as weakness I used to look only at high volume bars, that bar not being the highest of last 20 would not have been taken into account Getting closer to succeed
Relative volume is a hard lesson to learn for most people (me included). It's not about the highest or lowest volume on the chart. It's when there is a sudden surge of volume or a sudden withdrawal of volume.

Professionals just can't hide those surges.
  • #36,178
  • Apr 11, 2024 3:59pm Apr 11, 2024 3:59pm
Quoting Anotan
{quote} Relative volume is a hard lesson to learn for most people (me included). It's not about the highest or lowest volume on the chart. It's when there is a sudden surge of volume or a sudden withdrawal of volume. Professionals just can't hide those surges.
And if the bar was on low spread but with the same volume instead of big spread and volume as it is, would you have considered sign of weakness?

Kind regards
  • #36,179
  • Apr 11, 2024 4:23pm Apr 11, 2024 4:23pm
Quoting Frag8383
{quote} And if the bar was on low spread but with the same volume instead of big spread and volume as it is, would you have considered sign of weakness? Kind regards
I wouldn't consider it.

On your last chart, 3 bars prior to bar 1.. That bar is bit higher in volume than the previous bar and quite a bit narrower and that bar wasn't worth noticing.

I just look for sudden surge or decrease in volume into fresh new ground. A lot of people dismiss me when I say price can turn just as easy on low volume as it can high volume. Low volume into fresh new ground just takes a little practice to spot.

Also about a month ago I read the first 150 pages of the first VSA thread, I found that very helpful with background stuff. I've moved into the mindset that traders need to be proficient in both trading current PA and background.

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...pread-analysis
  • #36,180
  • Apr 11, 2024 4:58pm Apr 11, 2024 4:58pm
Quoting Anotan
{quote} I wouldn't consider it. On your last chart, 3 bars prior to bar 1.. That bar is bit higher in volume than the previous bar and quite a bit narrower and that bar wasn't worth noticing. I just look for sudden surge or decrease in volume into fresh new ground. A lot of people dismiss me when I say price can turn just as easy on low volume as it can high volume. Low volume into fresh new ground just takes a little practice to spot. Also about a month ago I read the first 150 pages of the first VSA thread, I found that very helpful with background...
Cool thanks for the help.
I will check the other thread I have always wanted to learn more about how to read the background.
I have 1000 pages of this thread still 800 to go.....have been talked mostly about triggers so far

Kind regards
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