USDCAD trend reversal?

Looks like a major bottom put in....Seems the big boys cleaned house on Long stops.....This was a BIG money day...
Hope some of you that had open TP stops had trailing stops...
There where divergences all over the place on every chart...Cad GDP than failed to come thru.
As this tread is called "trend reversal?" we MAY have just seen it. Though a retest is always in play.....I'll look to be a buyer again if it gets into the low 105's.

1)- Confirmation of a pin-bar

2)- Confirmed

3)- Not saying that IT WILL GO UP, I'm saying this is a long entry set up.

The reversal development so far.

Let's track it and see how and where to the market present us the show.

Still, no one can tell the final direction, even the market itself now.

I still favour short on this one with a stop above up trendline at about 1.0670.
If it goes back to down trend short confirmed (but how far?).
I am waiting for a clear break of a trendline.

Note of interest of why and what took place Friday with the usdcad

03:15 USD/CAD: Incredible Volatility To End First Half Of 2007 Sydney, July 1: The volatility in the USD/CAD and CAD on Friday was breath taking. The USD/CAD collapsed to a 30 year low at 1.0475 during the London session when a huge selling flow related to the Norilsk Nickel take over of Canada"s LionOre only to roar back to 1.0660 during the North American session. The move lower was also helped along by a rally in all of the dollar-bloc/commodity currencies that benefit from ongoing demand for the JPY funded carry trade. The spectacular reversal higher was in part due to quarter-end portfolio rebalancing, in part due to a weak Canadian GDP (flat against plus 0.2% expected), in part due to furious short covering by those who sold the break of 1.0500 earlier and in part due to the fact that the USD was broadly lower and the CAD sometimes follows USD sentiment.
The medium-term techs are a bit confusing. The USD/CAD ended a two-week period of making a higher weekly low and higher weekly high after 12 straight weeks of making lower weekly lows and highs. Last week"s price action saw a return to making a lower weekly low and lower weekly high, which suggests that the USD/CAD is set to resume trending lower after two weeks of corrective consolidation. All of that will be negated if the USD/CAD manages to trade above last week"s high at 1.0735. For those with strong hearts, selling around 1.0650 or rallies to 1.0700 with a stop above 1.0735 could be a good risk/reward trade. -- [email protected]

l

BOTTOM LINE:::A test of lows appears in advanced stages of development.

The violation of the 1.0640-67 critical supports indicates that the alternate count I have presented in the past few days is what is being traced out in $CAD: I am currently counting on an expanded flat from 1.0740 to establish support near 1.0540 in the days ahead. The tail end of that pattern, wave c down, needs a consolidation-final run sequence till we’ll be able to count it complete so the path of least resistance in the near-term remains down. Allow for a temporary test of 1.0610-34 before the market ventures within the 1.0539-74 range, ideally one last time.

The other option we have at the moment is that wave 5 down is already underway. I believe this is rather a theoretical possibility for two reasons. First off, the price retracement into 1.0740-60 is a rather modest 14.6%, which is under the minimum 23.6% and way below the typical 38.2%, targets that are normally reached not during a brief bounce but during a time consuming trading range in a 4th wave correction. The second reason is sentiment, which remains a very enthusiastic 84% USD bulls as of today. Therefore, pattern, momentum and sentiment indicate that more of a relief rally is needed before all stars will be again aligned against the beleaguered greenback. My call remains focused on a stronger summer bounce before weakness resurfaces temporarily in the autumn,,,,,,,, Right now that is my leaning.
https://plus.dailyfx.com/tnews/illus...06-29-07-2.gif
https://plus.dailyfx.com/tnews/illus...06-29-07-3.gif

Good things

We cant see your charts
Can you upload an actual attachment gif files of the charts ?

It seems you have posted links

I can't seem to do it. Do the links not work for you?

Here is another chart

http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/...629weekly2.gif
As we have focused on in the daily technicals

Here is a 15 minute one from fxcm

http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/...629weekly4.gif
The very short term chart shows a 5 advance from 1.0470 this morning. A rally in 5 waves means that the trend of one larger degree is up. We expect a correction to unfold, likely during the first half of next week. The correction will offer an opportunity to get bullish against 1.0470.

4hr chart

http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/...629weekly3.gif
Zooming in to look at the 5th wave of the ending diagonal of the 5th wave of the larger decline from 2002, it is clear that there are 5 waves lower from 1.1879. However, the 5th wave could extend lower. A break above the previous 4th wave high at 1.0756 would strongly suggest that a bottom (possibly multi-year) is in place.

i also think usdcad is reversing and we are seeing confirmation here going forward. look for this week to define the direction then we can scale into the position. my only concern is the strength of this up move. what are the fundamental drivers? usd is set to weaken against many pairs.

True my thought though is technicals can only be denied so long. Except maybe jpys for now.

long entry 0566 waiting

20:49 USD/CAD traders likely afraid to look at their screens when they get to their desks after last Friday's price action

Daily Retracements For UsdCad for all of 2007

Usd / Cad

Very , Very , Long- Term View......
----------------------------------------------------

Hello , Good things
Still can't see your charts -
you are posting links - try to upload attachments
--------------------------------------------
Here is a look at the day-chart s ............Usd/Cad

--------------------------------------------------
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

We need another one bar close on daily chart (this day & maybe next) to confirm reversing pattern. But it's too early to talk about trend reversal. It's still strong. Friday's action (i mean bounce from .0469) is just short term reaction on news data.

P.S.: you should read RESISTANCE on the picture where written SUPPORT

- Will Usd/ Cad clear Resistance this week ?
( see blue line on chart below )

---------------------------------------------------------
(* or may be it continues to go down lower beneath the pavement ?..... )

Time to make a decision ......
to the North ? or to the South ?