Daily GBP/JPY analysis

any one can tell me how i can start new thread,
i have very good stratgey ,and i want to start my jornal thread

Go to journal factory on the forums page and click on Post New thread.

Well, so far nothing major has happened, yet.....
A couple dumbass, homegrown, wannabe suicide attackers that even failed to kill themselves....

And don't forget that the UK had plenty of terrorist attacks during the IRA campaigns and have proven pretty resilient. True, the nation is on highest alert and we'll probably see a quick sell-off of sterling at the Wellington and/or London openings. But if a 9/11 or 2005 scale of event doesn't occur, I think it will be a short lived drop and than back to business as ussual.

Two blokes with a couple of butane cannisters, a cigarette lighter adaptor and a fancy belt does not an international terrorist cell make.

I can't see it affecting anything much other than making us slightly more Orwellian and increasing the number of bollard building companies.

I suspect any fall in our currency will be short lived if at all.

probably monday will be a drop in price, and after will range for some days...just a guess
anyway will see some dips

They should get the chair for stupidity



BTW, when currencies are to be affected by events like those, they are affected 2.5 seconds after it happens, or sooner...

I suspected that another "Mercedes packed with gasoline and nails, driven by a moron" is already priced in.

they forgot to buy nails.

I held all my longs over the weekend and thought the same thing about the terrorist attacks but so far the weekend prices have been trending up.

GBP/JPY 247.50 currently

I'm still holding longs too, first stop at 245.75, let's hope that holds on opening.
I have my friday close at 247.40 and saw a quote of 247.08 this morning, but now it is up at 247.59

long 247.14

I have three longs currently with an average price of 245.57. I have seen people thinking 260 by the end of the month. I tempted to just let these run and see what happens happens.

Glasgow attack: Police blow up car (CNN)


Police have carried out a controlled explosion on a vehicle at the hospital treating a suspect in the attack on Scotland's busiest airport. Officers also made a fifth arrest in the airport attack and a foiled car bomb plot in London.

I stongly encourage all of you guys to either keep your cars in the garage.

i dont think gj will down this week,anyway waiting a tankan news..my personal analysis still thinking gj will fly more n more,first target at 250++,the max target is 258++...gj just down if break 245.87 in my calculation...

Those bobbies don't carry guns, but be careful take your car out to buy some nails

I'm with you on that one. 250+ would make me very happy and put plenty of $$ in my pocket. And if it will hit 258 on this run, I'll be the proud owner of that Audi S6 I have my eye on for a while

I personally think the GBPJPY is ready to unwind this week if the bad economic news continues from USD...The dollar index is heading to all time low and the concerns mounted over the extent of losses in the mortgage-backed securities market, fallout from the sub-prime mortgage meltdown.


Fundamentals:

Read also, the article I found about the expected sell-off of the carry trades

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=7617


Technically:

Look at the weekly and daily charts of the GBPJPY and USDJPY.

The GBPJPY weekly chart shows a possible unwinding ..

* Hanging man formation in weekly GBPJPY chart ," reversal pattern"

* Weekly USDJPY formed an engulfing pattern another reversal signal


Also, Turning to next week, keep in mind that the US 4th of July holiday falls on Wednesday and there will be reduced liquidity during the North American session for most of the week as a result. Such holiday-thinned markets are ripe for increased volatility, and given the overall backdrop, it may be time to strap on the helmets.

Just my opinion...The technical and fundamentals is supporting for a big sell-off..

Wait and see after this week..





Read this analysis from Felix Homogratus:


How to trade the Japan Tankan Survey (07/01/07)
On July 1st, 7:50 pm New York Time, we have Japanese Tankan Survey coming out. This measure business confidence of large companies in Japan for the 2nd quarter of 2007. This index may have an effect on Japan making a decision to either hike or keep the interest rate unchanged in either July or August of this year.

We have four main number. We have Tankan Large Manufacturers Index, Large Manufacturers Outlook, Non-Manufacturers Index, and Non-Manufacturers Outlook.

Most economists and market analysts are going to focus on the Large Manufacturers Outlook, which is expected to come out at 22, which would match the highest reading in over 15 years, and it would signify extreme confidence and therefore economic resiliance in Japan, which would reconfirm Japanese decision to probably hike rates in August or earlier.

Considering that GBP/JPY is at around 247.50 right, I believe there is enough space for unwinding and it going down, so if the outlook comes out as at 23 or higher, it would set the new record high in over 15 years, and we may possibly see GBP/JPY going down by 70 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if the index comes out at 20 or below, we may GBP/JPY gain 70 pips or more in the first hour of the report. I think GBP/JPY and all the other JPY crosses will probably weaken towards yen strength even if the reading as expected at 22...but that decision will have to be made at the time of the release, price level would be important...depends if Yen gains too much right before the report...it may not have much more room to gain more.

You also have to watch out for any conflicts from the other three indicators mentioned above, as it may affect the whole move.

I personally won't be trading this indicator, since I normally don't trade on the weekend, like to have and get my rest, especially since we have such busy week ahead, I think we'll have a lot more trading opportunities.
__________________
Analysis by Felix Homogratus
Owner of ForexBastards.com
Home of free Forex News Signals & Broker Reviews

Policeman stops you:

- What is your occupation sir
- I'm a forex trader. I trade Cable (you think you are smart)
- Long or Short sir?
- Short right now.
- Hey Jack, come here please. Blow up this god-damn car will ya?

"Most economists and market analysts are going to focus on the Large Manufacturers Outlook, which is expected to come out at 22, which would match the highest reading in over 15 years,"

that's what cracks me up...JPY is in a Struggle yet the 'expected' LMO number is to be a 15 YEAR HIGH?!?
:surprised
that says to me...jack up the 'expected' cuz we want to stay in our carry trades.

any info on this thought?

I'm reading those doomsday articles for over 2 years now and as far as I'm concerned anything less than 2000 pips is just a correction. As far as the USD index, this is just a secondary infuence on this cross. Yes it correlates nicely to DJ lately and the developing sub-prime meltdown (and consequent equty sell-off) is a concern. However the main drivers are interest differential and UK & jap economic fundies... Which are still in favour of longing this baby on dips.

I don't expect a strong Tankan. Recent japanese data has been weak (remember last week's production?) except for job numbers and business investment. Now read: http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=2...YM&refer=japan and you'll see that weak yen is not all positive for production companies. That could explain why wages are not increasing (which is deperately needed for BOJ to justify lifting rates) and business investment is up. And with the recent sub-prime issue and the resulting credit thightening, exporters might be getting a bit concerned how the US consumers are going to pay for their japanese imports.

In the UK we're still looking at an almost garanteed rate hike while production has remained surprisingly resilient to 4 rate hikes, mainly due to exports to europe and BoE is surprisingly hawkish in statements and vote....

So all together I'm still favouring the long term up trend, also in the medium term, but surely the risk for corrections are increasing.

In any case it will be an interesting week to watch....

How to trade the Japan Tankan Survey (07/01/07)
On July 1st, 7:50 pm New York Time, we have Japanese Tankan Survey coming out. This measure business confidence of large companies in Japan for the 2nd quarter of 2007. This index may have an effect on Japan making a decision to either hike or keep the interest rate unchanged in either July or August of this year.

We have four main number. We have Tankan Large Manufacturers Index, Large Manufacturers Outlook, Non-Manufacturers Index, and Non-Manufacturers Outlook.

Most economists and market analysts are going to focus on the Large Manufacturers Outlook, which is expected to come out at 22, which would match the highest reading in over 15 years, and it would signify extreme confidence and therefore economic resiliance in Japan, which would reconfirm Japanese decision to probably hike rates in August or earlier.

Considering that GBP/JPY is at around 247.50 right, I believe there is enough space for unwinding and it going down, so if the outlook comes out as at 23 or higher, it would set the new record high in over 15 years, and we may possibly see GBP/JPY going down by 70 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if the index comes out at 20 or below, we may GBP/JPY gain 70 pips or more in the first hour of the report. I think GBP/JPY and all the other JPY crosses will probably weaken towards yen strength even if the reading as expected at 22...but that decision will have to be made at the time of the release, price level would be important...depends if Yen gains too much right before the report...it may not have much more room to gain more.

You also have to watch out for any conflicts from the other three indicators mentioned above, as it may affect the whole move.

I personally won't be trading this indicator, since I normally don't trade on the weekend, like to have and get my rest, especially since we have such busy week ahead, I think we'll have a lot more trading opportunities.
__________________
Analysis by Felix Homogratus
Owner of ForexBastards.com
Home of free Forex News Signals & Broker Reviews