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Hedging/averaging trades without prediction

  • #2,721
  • Mar 29, 2024 2:23pm Mar 29, 2024 2:23pm
Fully auto hedge EAs continue to perform but at a slightly less effective rate:
Have a good weekend all.
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Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,722
  • Mar 29, 2024 4:07pm Mar 29, 2024 4:07pm
5 weeks now up just over £1000, P/L holding steady at minus £600, getting use to this compounding now ...
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  • #2,723
  • Mar 29, 2024 4:22pm Mar 29, 2024 4:22pm
Quoting Waveskierrob
5 weeks now up just over £1000, P/L holding steady at minus £600, getting use to this compounding now ... {image}
Good numbers I'm still finding the sweet spot between trade size and margin, slowly increasing each week which in turn is reflected in weekly gains. I'm conscious that I may be biased too much towards safety first, working on it
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,724
  • Mar 29, 2024 4:37pm Mar 29, 2024 4:37pm
Quoting Waveskierrob
5 weeks now up just over £1000, P/L holding steady at minus £600, getting use to this compounding now ... {image}
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  • #2,725
  • Mar 31, 2024 5:18am Mar 31, 2024 5:18am
Quoting LazyTrades
{quote} Good numbers I'm still finding the sweet spot between trade size and margin, slowly increasing each week which in turn is reflected in weekly gains. I'm conscious that I may be biased too much towards safety first, working on it
Safety first is a good thing, you can always change your lot size later on, I'm thinking my P/L will stay around the same now according to my lot size, number of trades will be no more than 25ish that way will not get a margin call ....again early days and just tweaking things to suit my lifestyle, not wanting trading to rule my life, very comfortable with this so far...
  • #2,726
  • Mar 31, 2024 6:36am Mar 31, 2024 6:36am
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} Safety first is a good thing, you can always change your lot size later on, I'm thinking my P/L will stay around the same now according to my lot size, number of trades will be no more than 25ish that way will not get a margin call ....again early days and just tweaking things to suit my lifestyle, not wanting trading to rule my life, very comfortable with this so far...
Unless I'm missing something I'd say we are getting similar results @ net £400 per 5 weeks (approx £80 net per week on a £10k live account). If I realised 40% over a year I'd be pretty happy without compounding. Some may think these kinds of figures aren't that impressive but I've yet to see my DD reach 2%, I rarely need to be in front of a screen and can sleep very well with open trades. Trading would have to pay some very serious cheddar for me to be looking at the charts for hours on end and I was far more stressed in the past succumbing to the clustering illusion and trading with misplaced expectations and using SLs.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,727
  • Mar 31, 2024 6:49am Mar 31, 2024 6:49am
Quoting LazyTrades
{quote} Unless I'm missing something I'd say we are getting similar results @ net £400 per 5 weeks (approx £80 net per week on a £10k live account). If I realised 40% over a year I'd be pretty happy without compounding. Some may think these kinds of figures aren't that impressive but I've yet to see my DD reach 2%, I rarely need to be in front of a screen and can sleep very well with open trades. Trading would have to pay some very serious cheddar for me to be looking at the charts for hours on end and I was far more stressed in the past succumbing...
..if folks think that an average of 1% a week is not impressive then I can't take them seriously as traders, we can all make 100% in a week and show it to the world but how many of them sustain that over a period of time, seen their TE's then after a couple of weeks they either blow their accounts or just delete their TE's, I'm happy with what I'm doing and that's all that matters to me, if someone can take advantage of what I post then all good...
  • #2,728
  • Mar 31, 2024 7:39am Mar 31, 2024 7:39am
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} ..if folks think that an average of 1% a week is not impressive then I can't take them seriously as traders, we can all make 100% in a week and show it to the world but how many of them sustain that over a period of time, seen their TE's then after a couple of weeks they either blow their accounts or just delete their TE's, I'm happy with what I'm doing and that's all that matters to me, if someone can take advantage of what I post then all good...

I like your mindset and your longterm approach, i View it very simular, i See your point.
But honestly 1% a week is not impressive.
For example i have closed every single trading day profitable since the 20th December 2023.
Out of those 68x trading days, 13x where above 1% gain for the day.
There are Advantages to building a profit Buffer and only using those profits to make more profits with no risk on the actuall own deposit (balance). This is calculated, you can see the slow and safe start and then bigger and bigger gains from there.

I have never used (risked) my own (deposit) equity, i have build profits and i have only used and risked those profits and still closed every single trading day profitable with below 10% max drawdown. And im pretty confident i will do so in the Future too.
Even if i would lose -30% now and cut the loss, i would have still outperformed any 1% per week trader for the year and have more profits left.

I respect your profitability, but there are much more profitable traders out there that might even have lower total risk after just 2x weeks of building profits like that and that is truely impressiv when done with a consitency like that.

Now im in a Position where i can push my profits without risking my own deposit, i can continiu to risk past profits for even more profits and this becomes a snowball effect, its exponential from here. This is where you See impressiv growth and compounding, this is truely impressiv, 1% a week is not (depending on your consitency)

1% a week is notable, you beat 85% of losers that arent even profitable, but far from impressiv.
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1k to 100k Copy Trading All Time Return: 367.9%
  • #2,729
  • Mar 31, 2024 7:52am Mar 31, 2024 7:52am
Quoting Thomas.
{quote} I like your mindset and your longterm approach, i View it very simular, i See your point. But honestly 1% a week is not impressive. For example i have closed every single trading day profitable since the 20th December 2023. Out of those 68x trading days, 13x where above 1% gain for the day. There are Advantages to building a profit Buffer and only using those profits to make more profits with no risk on the actuall own deposit (balance). This is calculated, you can see the slow and safe start and then bigger and bigger gains from there....

you could be following a trend an make a killing in 2024, and lose it all for the rest of the year.
hedging is a different way of trading, you can't compare profitabilities. I don't doubt trades make a lot more consistently, not many mind you and most just lose money
Objectively 1% a week as a return on a investment is a good result, this can't be denied with a serious face.
  • #2,730
  • Mar 31, 2024 8:07am Mar 31, 2024 8:07am
Quoting Polimini
{quote} you could be following a trend an make a killing in 2024, and lose it all for the rest of the year. hedging is a different way of trading, you can't compare profitabilities. I don't doubt trades make a lot more consistently, not many mind you and most just lose money Objectively 1% a week as a return on a investment is a good result, this can't be denied with a serious face.

I would say that doesnt apply to my case with my trading approach.
I only short indicies like us30, nasdaq and dax (ger40).
So actually those markets went up and keep making all time highs every few days and i still came out great as a seller by finding high quality short posotions (scalping).
Quite the opposite, im dealing with Bad conditions now and i will come out much better once markets actually Fall. Or Strat Trending bearish.
I dont deny 1% a week is good, but its certainly not impressiv, believing that to be impressiv would be a limiting belief. Thats reality, it can be done much better in a safe way.
1k to 100k Copy Trading All Time Return: 367.9%
  • #2,731
  • Mar 31, 2024 8:14am Mar 31, 2024 8:14am
Quoting Thomas.
{quote} I like your mindset and your longterm approach, i View it very simular, i See your point. But honestly 1% a week is not impressive. For example i have closed every single trading day profitable since the 20th December 2023. Out of those 68x trading days, 13x where above 1% gain for the day. There are Advantages to building a profit Buffer and only using those profits to make more profits with no risk on the actuall own deposit (balance). This is calculated, you can see the slow and safe start and then bigger and bigger gains from there....
Thanks for post, yes you're right 1% is not very impressive over a couple of months but over the year that's 50% more with compounding with very low DD I think that's the key "small % profit verses small DD", we can all show charts over a certain period ...here's one of mine from a couple of years ago before I nearly lost my bank, I sure you will do well but markets change so just be careful your chart only shows 5 months which is in its infancy in the trading world, as you said with 1% a week you are beating 85% of traders I think that's pretty impressive...
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  • #2,732
  • Mar 31, 2024 8:37am Mar 31, 2024 8:37am
Extra insight on how I trade if anyone is interested, this is from the 24th February 2024...
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  • #2,733
  • Mar 31, 2024 8:41am Mar 31, 2024 8:41am
and these are my open trades...
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  • #2,734
  • Mar 31, 2024 8:58am Mar 31, 2024 8:58am
Quoting Thomas.
{quote} I like your mindset and your longterm approach, i View it very simular, i See your point. But honestly 1% a week is not impressive. For example i have closed every single trading day profitable since the 20th December 2023. Out of those 68x trading days, 13x where above 1% gain for the day. There are Advantages to building a profit Buffer and only using those profits to make more profits with no risk on the actuall own deposit (balance). This is calculated, you can see the slow and safe start and then bigger and bigger gains from there....
Thanks for the post Thomas, I doubt anyone here would seriously defend against a more profitable system such as yours, good luck to you. One must always consider the mindset of the individual trader as well as their ability to view charts, their appetite for risk, available capital, time available to do research and just the willingness to use their most valuable asset (their time) in the pursuit of trading. If 1% per week isn't impressive to you then I honestly congratulate you on your abilities as I strive for better performance myself, with my limitations above.

Importantly, I would add that for most (certainly for me for many years) just getting to a position where you are not losing over the long term should be viewed as a huge step forward.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,735
  • Apr 1, 2024 3:30am Apr 1, 2024 3:30am
Just my findings but I wouldn't underestimate the effects on your mindset as you scale up as well, one reason why I'd only use demo for the most basic of testing scenarios due to the removal of a key element (your money). It's much easier to make 50% of £1000 than it is to make 50% of £10,000 and so on.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,736
  • Apr 1, 2024 3:57am Apr 1, 2024 3:57am
Quoting LazyTrades
Just my findings but I wouldn't underestimate the effects on your mindset as you scale up as well, one reason why I'd only use demo for the most basic of testing scenarios due to the removal of a key element (your money). It's much easier to make 50% of £1000 than it is to make 50% of £10,000 and so on.
Yes demo only good for mechanics of trading, most of real trading happens in our heads, competing against our selves not the markets...
  • #2,737
  • Apr 1, 2024 9:42am Apr 1, 2024 9:42am
Hello guys!
wow, nice thread…glad i found it!
Me aswell trying to focus on the mental and money management.
Ive tried alot of strategys, but the past year i would say, ive been looking more at hedging.
Trying to build my own hedging approach.

if i may ask, how does your hedging strategy look like?
how are you handling your margins?
Would love to get some tips on how to trade with hedging and how to ”structure” the basket the safest way

Best regards
  • #2,738
  • Apr 1, 2024 11:04am Apr 1, 2024 11:04am
Quoting jimsxxl
Hello guys! wow, nice thread…glad i found it! Me aswell trying to focus on the mental and money management. Ive tried alot of strategys, but the past year i would say, ive been looking more at hedging. Trying to build my own hedging approach. if i may ask, how does your hedging strategy look like? how are you handling your margins? Would love to get some tips on how to trade with hedging and how to ”structure” the basket the safest way Best regards
Hello Jim, firstly I hope you have read all the posts on the thread at least once, secondly my approach will not be the same as other posters here but there seem to be some constants amongst those who trade this way. I think my first question would be: does your available capital allow you hedge/average safely without triggering margin calls?

One small alarm bell is you say you have tried a lot of strategies, patience and discipline is required here, I personally have sat on an overall position for days/weeks and Rob's patience is probably only limited by his life expectancy; I also use no stoplosses nor indicators of any kind.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,739
  • Apr 1, 2024 11:14am Apr 1, 2024 11:14am
Quoting LazyTrades
{quote} Hello Jim, firstly I hope you have read all the posts on the thread at least once, secondly my approach will not be the same as other posters here but there seem to be some constants amongst those who trade this way. I think my first question would be: does your available capital allow you hedge/average safely without triggering margin calls? One small alarm bell is you say you have tried a lot of strategies, patience and discipline is required here, I personally have sat on an overall position for days/weeks and Rob's patience is probably...
hello Lazy!
when i say ”alot of strategies” - its spread over ~10years
If my bankroll is big enough? I dont know i need to backtest. I just wonder if you guys working with the same ”framework”, or are you trading totally different ?

the strategy im testing atm (demo), is trading way too frequently i think, drawdown is too big ($1000 account).
  • #2,740
  • Apr 1, 2024 11:14am Apr 1, 2024 11:14am
Quoting LazyTrades
{quote} Hello Jim, firstly I hope you have read all the posts on the thread at least once, secondly my approach will not be the same as other posters here but there seem to be some constants amongst those who trade this way. I think my first question would be: does your available capital allow you hedge/average safely without triggering margin calls? One small alarm bell is you say you have tried a lot of strategies, patience and discipline is required here, I personally have sat on an overall position for days/weeks and Rob's patience is probably...
"Rob's patience is probably only limited by his life expectancy"...brilliant line...
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