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USDCAD trend reversal?

  • #1,261
  • Jun 29, 2007 7:39am Jun 29, 2007 7:39am
Quoting ratman
ultimate bullcrap right now

  • #1,262
  • Jun 29, 2007 7:39am Jun 29, 2007 7:39am
Quoting ratman
ultimate bullcrap right now
heh.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #1,263
  • Jun 29, 2007 7:42am Jun 29, 2007 7:42am
She's got some juice behind her also hope you all made some hay while the sun was shining
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #1,264
  • Jun 29, 2007 7:54am Jun 29, 2007 7:54am
sweet sweet usdcad.

http://gloucestercitynews.typepad.co...s_up_two_3.jpg
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #1,265
  • Jun 29, 2007 8:01am Jun 29, 2007 8:01am
Nice to see that some people got this one right.
Today I bought a massive amount of USD/CAD @ 1.0488[I guess I wasn't the only one...]
I was expecting this trade for a very long time.
See this post of mine [under the name J.L]in this thread...
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...8&postcount=46

There are still some alternate scenarios though and I would like to urge people that went long to be very careful since if the pair edges lower than 1.0465 there is a big possibility that we'll get to see much lower prices.

hehe.
I was supposed to be on vacation and I wasnt supposed to play in the forex market but I couldnt miss this opportunity.

p.s
GBP/USD looks toppish at the range of 2.07-2.15 but I am not going to trade it.
The GrandMaster of the Forex Market.
  • #1,266
  • Jun 29, 2007 8:07am Jun 29, 2007 8:07am
If this daily candle confirms, this is a monster long entry
Attached Image
  • #1,267
  • Jun 29, 2007 8:13am Jun 29, 2007 8:13am
thats true, but we will see
  • #1,268
  • Jun 29, 2007 8:18am Jun 29, 2007 8:18am
If it can close at the current levels or better ( which in my opinion it will ) that would be a very significant reversal bar. The risk reward is a lot better to long USD/CAD at the moment rather then shorting it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chf, 6-29.gif Size: 8 KB
  • #1,269
  • Jun 29, 2007 8:19am Jun 29, 2007 8:19am
Quoting ratman
thats true, but we will see
agreed.

trend is still down and it did not even break through previous 'infamous' channel.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #1,270
  • Jun 29, 2007 8:21am Jun 29, 2007 8:21am
@ cesarnc

Well I dont exactly know what you mean by the term "confirmation" but...
1.0810 is the first true resistance upwards.
There is still a possibility that it might hit that price and then take a dip for 1.01.
I dont know what kind of systems you use but in order for this long term uptrend to be confirmed we'll have to see how the market connects the various waves with one another through corrections .

Right now there are two exactly equivalent scenarios .

I was a bit scared to enter that trade since I havent studied the market for one week or more but once I saw the market accelerating downwards after it reached 1.0520 it was obvious that a selling climax would occur .

Anyway besides those things ...the right way right now is not to be short Usd/Cad.
1.0465 is a very important price level which may trigger a long term trend reversal.

edit:
Hm now that I analyze it 1.070 is VERY important as well.
The GrandMaster of the Forex Market.
  • #1,271
  • Jun 29, 2007 8:31am Jun 29, 2007 8:31am
Oil is still very strong, and with the geopolitical concerns popping up there is a chance the Cad remains well supported.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #1,272
  • Jun 29, 2007 9:08am Jun 29, 2007 9:08am
Quoting JimboFX
If it can close at the current levels or better ( which in my opinion it will ) that would be a very significant reversal bar. The risk reward is a lot better to long USD/CAD at the moment rather then shorting it.
Hi, JimboFX,

In such a time/price scale, when you do the wave projection, I think it will be more accurate to use percentage scale.
Then your projected end of wave 5 will fall to somewhere around 047x.

Maybe it is worth thinking.

Cheers.
凹凸 only
  • #1,273
  • Edited 9:38am Jun 29, 2007 9:24am | Edited 9:38am
Gotta like the sunshine

Covered all positions 0650 flat market and calling it a week

Bravado Bravo, good faith on yeah
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #1,274
  • Jun 29, 2007 9:45am Jun 29, 2007 9:45am

O Canada!
Our home and native land!
True patriot love in all thy sons command.
With glowing hearts we see thee rise,
The True North strong and free!
From far and wide,
O Canada, we stand on guard for thee.
God keep our land glorious and free!
O Canada, we stand on guard for thee.
O Canada, we stand on guard for thee.



BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #1,275
  • Jun 29, 2007 11:07am Jun 29, 2007 11:07am
Quoting bravado
this crazy pair decided to go straight down without any drama.

what a loonie.
Quoting marketwavez
The Canadian Dollar has made a choice finally !

You know what's interesting about this sudden drop in price is that it happened at 2:30 am E.S.T. time
which means that the Canadian session was not even open yet ........How is this possible ?

Canada was asleep at 2:30 am .....
So there was no news out of Canada at the time , They all woke up to this nasty downturn !
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

now look how pro-found this break has turned out to be ,
amazing, absolutely amazing .........
Just like thew night before
All this movement is hapening at 2:30 am when Canada is asleep .....
( 2 nights in a row now )

This movement is happening when the Canadian sessions are closed with No Canadian Economic News.

Why is this ?....... !
  • #1,276
  • Jun 29, 2007 11:12am Jun 29, 2007 11:12am
Quoting marketwavez
Just like thew night before
All this movement is hapening at 2:30 am when Canada is asleep .....

This movement is happening when the Canadian sessions are closed with No Canadian News.

Why is this ?
yap. i remembered you saying this.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #1,277
  • Jun 29, 2007 11:51am Jun 29, 2007 11:51am
Quoting ratman
07:28 We're hearing that the USDCAD move down to the lows in the 1.0475 area was M&A related. That was the market getting pounded with $7B.


excuse me but what is M&A ?
that's why it's dangerous to have a position without a SL on the forex ^^ despite said this, i usually dont have a SL when i can watch my position ^^

but honestly, we dont see such market request everyday ($7B CAD is quite a lot of money )
  • #1,278
  • Edited 2:07pm Jun 29, 2007 12:19pm | Edited 2:07pm
This was Yesetday's chart post -
and here what happened today-

This week we had a simple channel breakout

A meltdown so to speak _( with no real News )
-------------------------------------------------------
happening at 2:30 am when Canada was sleeping - 2 nights in a row

All this News analysis and Volume analysis and COT analysis ,
-Did not help at all this week .............
----------------------------------------------------------------
There is a lesson here to be learned about how Funny-Mentals
and News can be a waste of time - at least most of the time...
Chart Patterns tend to tell so much more .

------------------------------------------------------------------

A simple channel was there all along .......
- all we had to do was watch with way price would break .....
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Yesterday we had the first break to the Downside

Now , just look at this Stinking Mess !
( over 300 points dip this week )
---------------------------------------------------------------
oit seems
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CAD-6-28-2007-#2.jpg Size: 54 KB
  • #1,279
  • Jun 29, 2007 12:20pm Jun 29, 2007 12:20pm
Pg2.................
Today's update Chart - Usd/Cad
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CAD-6-29-2007-#1.jpg Size: 49 KB
  • #1,280
  • Jun 29, 2007 4:33pm Jun 29, 2007 4:33pm
Quoting temporary
@ cesarnc

Well I dont exactly know what you mean by the term "confirmation" but...
1.0810 is the first true resistance upwards.
There is still a possibility that it might hit that price and then take a dip for 1.01.
I dont know what kind of systems you use but in order for this long term uptrend to be confirmed we'll have to see how the market connects the various waves with one another through corrections .

Right now there are two exactly equivalent scenarios .

I was a bit scared to enter that trade since I havent studied the market for one week or more but once I saw the market accelerating downwards after it reached 1.0520 it was obvious that a selling climax would occur .

Anyway besides those things ...the right way right now is not to be short Usd/Cad.
1.0465 is a very important price level which may trigger a long term trend reversal.

edit:
Hm now that I analyze it 1.070 is VERY important as well.

Don't be to sure about it. This candle is just tooooo obvious. And 1.070 is there still to take ...

I am thrilled to see what is happening. My guess: it will move up a bit and then smash again...

Rgds.
t.
always expect the unexpected!
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