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Hedging/averaging trades without prediction

  • #2,701
  • Mar 23, 2024 2:07pm Mar 23, 2024 2:07pm
Quoting LazyTrades
Here's part 2: https://youtu.be/6G1F1KVeiNA?si=jJt64YqrC7WkDnwp
Yet again brilliant find, will be watching this on a regular basis and buying the book, put across very well and reiterated a lot of my own beliefs...
  • #2,702
  • Mar 23, 2024 2:11pm Mar 23, 2024 2:11pm
Quoting LazyTrades
{quote} I've prepared for this in some way by accepting I'll close two positions (with a small loss/profit) in order to finance the basket if this situation occurs. Having said that I'm working on opening larger, but fewer trades, and letting the hedge come back into line, I'm always swap positive which also helps. Positive swap is making up around 15% of my profit and surprising how this mounts up, another consideration is if I were overall net negative on swap my profit could be down by 30%.
I myself been toying with the idea to close all trades if in profit at the end of the day or week as I concentrate more on my equity, that way I could keep my lot sizes the same and never run into a margin call...
  • #2,703
  • Mar 23, 2024 2:11pm Mar 23, 2024 2:11pm
Careful on that confirmation bias
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,704
  • Mar 23, 2024 2:13pm Mar 23, 2024 2:13pm
Quoting LazyTrades
Careful on that confirmation bias
Folks would benefit from watching the section on "Hindsight Bias" on the GU thread...
  • #2,705
  • Mar 23, 2024 2:15pm Mar 23, 2024 2:15pm
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} I myself been toying with the idea to close all trades if in profit at the end of the day or week as I concentrate more on my equity, that way I could keep my lot sizes the same and never run into a margin call...
Probably why some people can't average/hedge as they are simply under-capitalised; after blowing my first account many years ago I needed to find a broker that would allow the smallest possible lot size to practice with, not a big fan of demo as real money changes everything in my book.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,706
  • Mar 23, 2024 2:16pm Mar 23, 2024 2:16pm
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} Folks would benefit from watching the section on "Hindsight Bias" on the GU thread...
Not sure either of those videos would be too popular in that thread, inconvenient truths?
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,707
  • Mar 23, 2024 2:19pm Mar 23, 2024 2:19pm
Quoting LazyTrades
{quote} Not sure either of those videos would be too popular in that thread, inconvenient truths?
People like to think that they are in control of the market, where I think you and I know that we are in control of our banks and trades...
  • #2,708
  • Edited 3:07pm Mar 23, 2024 2:22pm | Edited 3:07pm
However, if someone told me every time my Heiken Ashi crossed my 24 EMA on a wet Tuesday you could take 20 pips I'd certainly investigate, it might work for some wierd reason so shouldn't be dismissed, it won't have worked because of the above though, not in my book at least until some logic/testing could prove it.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,709
  • Mar 23, 2024 2:24pm Mar 23, 2024 2:24pm
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} People like to think that they are in control of the market, where I think you and I know that we are in control of our banks and trades...
This is an unashamed plagairism from FTI:

“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.”
― Sun Tzu, The Art of War
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,710
  • Mar 25, 2024 3:59am Mar 25, 2024 3:59am
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} I myself been toying with the idea to close all trades if in profit at the end of the day or week as I concentrate more on my equity, that way I could keep my lot sizes the same and never run into a margin call...
I'm live testing on two accounts and one of them I close all trades (usually at the end of the end but can be anytime) when my equity is above the previous equity high water mark so it might look a bit like this:

Open trades = 8
Balance: £20202
Equity: £19998

Then next day

open trades = 6
Balance: £20242
Equity £20005

Close everything down and restart. As long as current equity is over previous equity (including costs) it works.

The other account is a bit more complex using profits to roll off the neg equity with a max buy and max sell, still tweaking this so I won't share until I know it's scalable and solid (ish)..
  • #2,711
  • Mar 25, 2024 5:28am Mar 25, 2024 5:28am
Quoting Fagin
{quote} I'm live testing on two accounts and one of them I close all trades (usually at the end of the end but can be anytime) when my equity is above the previous equity high water mark so it might look a bit like this: Open trades = 8 Balance: £20202 Equity: £19998 Then next day open trades = 6 Balance: £20242 Equity £20005 Close everything down and restart. As long as current equity is over previous equity (including costs) it works. The other account is a bit more complex using profits to roll off the neg equity with a max buy and max sell,...
Nothing wrong with closing when equity grows in my book, I don't subscribe to a fixed number (TP) but conscious of having to beat the spread each time I do close and reopen.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,712
  • Mar 25, 2024 6:08am Mar 25, 2024 6:08am
Quoting LazyTrades
{quote} Nothing wrong with closing when equity grows in my book, I don't subscribe to a fixed number (TP) but conscious of having to beat the spread each time I do close and reopen.
It's easy enough when you forget what a balance is and just trade your equity
  • #2,713
  • Mar 26, 2024 12:12pm Mar 26, 2024 12:12pm
First round banked this week, put up a small fight until an hour or so ago, patience......
Rinse and repeat.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,714
  • Mar 26, 2024 12:22pm Mar 26, 2024 12:22pm
Quoting LazyTrades
First round banked this week, put up a small fight until an hour or so ago, patience...... Rinse and repeat.
Even though I'm predominantly SHORT this week, I've managed to tread water so if GU EU and AU go SHORT should be able to bank my profits...
  • #2,715
  • Mar 26, 2024 12:31pm Mar 26, 2024 12:31pm
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} Even though I'm predominantly SHORT this week, I've managed to tread water so if GU EU and AU go SHORT should be able to bank my profits...
EU and UM both went long for a while, rarely see this but I cautiously load up in those scenarios. Even though swap only makes up a realtively small amount, I strangely begrudge closing profitable positions
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,716
  • Mar 26, 2024 12:35pm Mar 26, 2024 12:35pm
Quoting LazyTrades
{quote} EU and UM both went long for a while, rarely see this but I cautiously load up in those scenarios. Even though swap only makes up a realtively small amount, I strangely begrudge closing profitable positions
I know how you feel, this game we chose to play certain messes with our minds, I'm slowly getting less emotional with my trades ...
  • #2,717
  • Mar 26, 2024 12:39pm Mar 26, 2024 12:39pm
My cards arrived today, got mine from eBay UK:

https://www.escapingordinary.net/54-mind-trap-cards

Some extra gems in there not in the videos, really good quality, worth every penny IMO.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,718
  • Mar 26, 2024 12:41pm Mar 26, 2024 12:41pm
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} I know how you feel, this game we chose to play certain messes with our minds, I'm slowly getting less emotional with my trades ...
For me the positive swap helps quite a bit as I get paid when I'm wrong (ok to a degree). The wierd bit is my trades are open somewhere between 5 mins and 2 days.
I love the psychological battle more than the financial bit (mostly).
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,719
  • Mar 26, 2024 1:45pm Mar 26, 2024 1:45pm
Just realised it's been a year(ish) since I started posting, (mostly on this thread) and it's interesting/entertaining looking back. One of the obvious constants is the lack of SL in any trades from which anyone can draw their own conclusions. To any new/young traders reading this thread, it should be obvious though that many of the broker advisory pamphlets, courses, EAs, gurus etc. should be treated with caution and that the individual's thought process is the key to not losing your money.

I'm a firm believer you need to expose yourself to trading with real money, and maybe some losses, to see how you react and learn from the process. Not losing money should be the first goal, becoming profitable the next and so on. We are up against the biggest bunch of greedy manipulative shitheads on the planet, accept and deal with it, don't believe anything you read and certainly don't believe everything you think (without rigourous testing). Finally I'd say not to fall into the trap of closing out trades in the "valley of despair", the zone at which any new endeavour (trading journey) must travel through; that negative time when trades go into the red for hours/days and you question your choices (this is where the majority probably place their SLs).

Not trading advice, just something for me to reference, look back and laugh at, hopefully next March.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,720
  • Mar 29, 2024 2:21pm Mar 29, 2024 2:21pm
Hedging EURUSD USDMXN returned 1.22% this week:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot 2024-03-29 192146.png Size: 2 KB
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
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