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Why is NZD so strong??

  • #61
  • Jun 24, 2007 6:30pm Jun 24, 2007 6:30pm
Quoting cesarnc
Recent story repeats, we can make a buck

17:49 No sign of the RBNZ so far today. They have intervened the last two Mondays in a row.
I think they are getting smarter. Many hopeful traders are waiting for a DROP 50-100 pips but it doesn't happen today, so I still placing a SELL at .7685

Will see what happen on Wednesday...
  • #62
  • Jun 25, 2007 1:11am Jun 25, 2007 1:11am
Red Alert!

Watch it!
  • #63
  • Jun 25, 2007 4:51am Jun 25, 2007 4:51am
Quoting cesarnc
Sell stop 7630, SL 7645, TP 7555, expires 06:00 GMT, just in case
Not today... Let's wait for this evening...
  • #64
  • Jun 26, 2007 11:21am Jun 26, 2007 11:21am
Quoting BurgerKing
Will we see another RBNZ Intervention today?

RBNZ already intervened last Friday afternoon (Saturday NZ time). It was not as successfull as RBNZ had hoped for.

Japanese vs RBNZ

He who has the most ammo (cash) wins this fight. RBNZ is foreseen low on ammo; if they really want to drive NZD down, they should sell, sell, sell and sell forcing NZDUSD to drop 200~300 pips in an hour - this would REALLY scare off those NZD buyers to the point that they would short it themselves. However, what RBNZ is doing is merely selling a few millions to drop NZDUSD down by 50 pips attractive enough for dip buyers to re-enter.

If you are shorting this pair, be prepared for a roller coaster ride. BTW. NZDUSD is almost 7660s. If you short it with small SL, you just donated money to the broker. I shorted it with no SL. Will short this one again at 0.7680 (I missed that intervention move last Friday). I know I can get my account wiped out with no SL (however im not risking more than 10% on this deal though). But knowing RBNZ and the whole NZ economy on my side, its only a matter of time NZDUSD would drop. This is not a 1-2 day fight; its a long term war.

Big Burger King how many NZ$ would you estimate it would take for the RBNZ to lower by 300 pips in an hour say on the NZD/U??

I agree wholly on your views/threads on the KIWI. I would like to ask a very silly question if I may.

In regards to the RBNZ being in an uncomfortable position with the overvalue of their currency, to lower it(now I did say this was silly) could they say print more money and flood the country.

Would this devalue the currency??

I can appreciate this is a $*$*! theory, but what would your answer be if they can't control the housing sector and the foreign investments in flux.

By the way I love you style of trading... BIG POCKETS!!
  • #65
  • Jun 26, 2007 11:29am Jun 26, 2007 11:29am
shorted at 0.7685 and unload just now at 0.7667 for a quick few pips. Will enter again once the news at 645 release...
  • #66
  • Jun 26, 2007 12:22pm Jun 26, 2007 12:22pm
Flooding the market with ccy would be very unproductive; they'd just have to raise rates more to mop it up, and it would destabilize their international trade relations (which are important to the health of the country). Right now they are doing the right thing - putting a lid on the ccy growth, and (probably) cooperating with Japan who is just beginning to talk down the market. Keep an eye on MoF personel changes, and the next rate announcemnt in 6 weeks (?).

Note also that China - which is a big importer of NZ goods, is in a good position to help as well. Finally, a significant low-level aspect is that China would apparently like the yuan to become (at some point) the reserve ccy for the area, which gives it an added incentive to assist in keeping FX stable.
  • #67
  • Jun 26, 2007 10:54pm Jun 26, 2007 10:54pm
Well I have taken a plunge on this thing. I have shorted @ .7648. SL at 7740. My reasons.
1. bad Trade Balance news. My feeling is also with the currency so high the other news will also be bad. 2. more hawkish talk out of Japan regarding the weak yen this week saying the currency has moved from acceptable to watchful. 3. Looking at the day chart things appear to be starting to roll over.
Looking at the CCI which is something I use it has drifted below 100 for the first time in over a week.
This may be a dumb trade because I am too impatient, but I don't feel bad about taking it. Time will tell I guess. As I write this I am already even so hopefully that will carry through.
  • #68
  • Edited 12:21am Jun 27, 2007 12:04am | Edited 12:21am
From DailyFX
Quote
03:58 GMT June 27th The Kiwi opened around 0.7660 and traded in a 0.7636/70 range, taken to the highs on a false attempt to trigger stops on the AUD/NZD below 1.1000. The cross traded in a 1.1008/45 range. Increased risk aversion caused an early round of profit taking on the carry trades, taking the Kiwi to the session low, then short covering and Japanese retail flows caused a bounce. The trade surplus at NZD 9mln had no impact, see 42342 for details. The RBNZ clarified their intervention strategy, which is to smooth unjustified moves, when the NZD is at extreme levels, so the market can expect continued guerrilla attacks, if the NZD strengthens. Initial resistance comes in at option barriers around 0.7700 and support at 0.7600/05, Friday"s low and the 10 day m/a.

The VIX volatility index is back at 19, the levels seen after the Shanghai collapse in February and the MoF has changed it"s stance on the weak JPY, moving from current levels are "acceptable" to "watchful" The NZD/JPY opened at 94.40 and traded in a 93.94/94.50 range, leaving overbought technicals favouring a deeper correction, with a target at 92.30, 38.2% of the move from May 25th.(ams)
This suggests that NZDJPY is the better pair to trade NZD:
* NZD is at its highest peak ready to weaken.
* JPY is at its lowest bottom ready to strengthen.
= NZDJPY ready for a big down slide.
  • #69
  • Jun 27, 2007 4:34am Jun 27, 2007 4:34am
NZDUSD had dropped 100 pips since yesterday and without RBNZ intervention.
  • #70
  • Jun 27, 2007 12:57pm Jun 27, 2007 12:57pm
Well so far the trade seems to be going good. Up +67. I'm moving my SL to .7628 to lock in 20pips. Right now it is 7577. While it looks like there is some support at 7550 I think it is telling that the pair continues to lose ground even with weak dollar info. If we get some more bad news tonight out of NZ I will think it will go past that. I think the bigger support is around 7490-80 area. I will continue to let this one go for now.
  • #71
  • Jun 27, 2007 10:44pm Jun 27, 2007 10:44pm
Quoting BurgerKing
NZDUSD had dropped 100 pips since yesterday and without RBNZ intervention.

RBNZ is happy for sure. YEN did that for FREE to them. Will short again once it reach .768x area.
  • #72
  • Jun 28, 2007 3:08am Jun 28, 2007 3:08am
Well current account got me while I was at work. Stopped out with 20 pip gain. Will look to short this after GDP if it is weak. Hard to say how that will go. I can wait.
  • #73
  • Jun 28, 2007 3:45am Jun 28, 2007 3:45am
wait for friday closing time... that was when RBNZ intervened last week.
if NZDUSD is high, u could short it and wait for RBNZ to follow
  • #74
  • Jun 28, 2007 4:36pm Jun 28, 2007 4:36pm
NZD data coming

NZDUSD @ 77

RBNZ quite

For how long?

16:07NZD/USD traders should be on high alert for possible RBNZ intervention today after Kiwi has gone on to make new highs against the USD and the NZD/JPY is back near it's recent highs around 95.00
  • #75
  • Jun 28, 2007 4:39pm Jun 28, 2007 4:39pm
Quoting cesarnc
NZD data coming

NZDUSD @ 77

RBNZ quite

For how long?

16:07NZD/USD traders should be on high alert for possible RBNZ intervention today after Kiwi has gone on to make new highs against the USD and the NZD/JPY is back near it's recent highs around 95.00
Short 7700...what do you think ?
  • #76
  • Jun 28, 2007 4:50pm Jun 28, 2007 4:50pm
Quoting Rustyyy
Short 7700...what do you think ?
I got a short @ .7706
  • #77
  • Jun 28, 2007 4:53pm Jun 28, 2007 4:53pm
Quoting Rustyyy
Short 7700...what do you think ?
hmm, that's really hard to say.... This is trading against a major trend, but inline with a strong partner, the Central Bank.

I favour scalping shorts when signs of intervention pops. Problem is that intervention is usually 50 pips within a 1min candle.
  • #78
  • Jun 28, 2007 6:00pm Jun 28, 2007 6:00pm
shorted and hit SL @ 7712. )*&(**&#&E&(#&(
  • #79
  • Jun 29, 2007 3:48am Jun 29, 2007 3:48am
By now, NZD buyers are surely mocking at RBNZ's ability to control NZD.

After today's closing and next week's opening, if NZD is still high, i will throw the towel at RBNZ. JPY funded carry traders are a stronger force than RBNZ
  • #80
  • Jun 29, 2007 3:50am Jun 29, 2007 3:50am
Quoting BurgerKing
By now, NZD buyers are surely mocking at RBNZ's ability to control NZD.

After today's closing and next week's opening, if NZD is still high, i will throw the towel at RBNZ. JPY funded carry traders are a stronger force than RBNZ

I'm taking my chances, shorted @7699. Let see at 830 where would it move to.
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