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Call me Vidvad - I day trade futures

  • #141
  • Mar 18, 2024 9:56am Mar 18, 2024 9:56am
Quoting TraderNurse
{quote} NQ got me in that one :S, tricky price action around yesterday high. {image}
1st and 2nd pullbacks best, especially when targeting a previous day's high.

3rd pullbacs should be taken with caution if at all.

4th pullbacks are usually reversals. May not reverse the trend, but usually signals a deeper pullback, rather than a pullback-continue.

These are the observations you need to make over and over and over as you gain experience watching these candles form.

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  • #142
  • Mar 18, 2024 10:00am Mar 18, 2024 10:00am
You don't need the swing indicator to see these levels in real time, but it sure does help, imo.

If you are long from the bottom of a range, and price is stalling at the top of the range, take some profits. Don't let the whole thing get away from you.

Also, Ninjatrader has indicators that will draw yesterday's high and low, last week's high and low, and today's open for you automatically. Take advanatge of those indicators. It saves a lot of time prepping your charts as the lines and levels are already drawn for you. Just make sure you load enough days data for the indicators to calculate. For the previous day's high and low and today's open, the default 3 days is enough. However, to draw the previous week's high and low I think I need 10 days of data to be loaded.
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  • #143
  • Mar 18, 2024 10:26am Mar 18, 2024 10:26am
This is how I use the bar status indicator: I want to be short if price reverses down from this level, and I set a sell stop one tick below the level inidctaed as the low of the current bar by the bar status indicator.

It doesn't keep me out of losing trades, but it does get me into the winning trades before price has run away from me.
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  • #144
  • Mar 18, 2024 10:28am Mar 18, 2024 10:28am
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  • #145
  • Mar 18, 2024 10:32am Mar 18, 2024 10:32am
zoomed in
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  • #146
  • Mar 18, 2024 10:33am Mar 18, 2024 10:33am
+60 ticks using the bar status indicator to set the entry level
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  • #147
  • Mar 18, 2024 10:40am Mar 18, 2024 10:40am
Price dropped to swing support from the early pullback (see the swing indicator), and if I were looking for another trade (I am not) I'd be trailing a sell stop entry below price on this pullback to the ema's and previous support (now resistance?).

I don't want to sell short when price is back at the support level. I want to already be short so that if support holds again, I can get out with a smaller than a full -40 tick stop loss.

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  • #148
  • Mar 18, 2024 10:52am Mar 18, 2024 10:52am
Quoting vidvad
Price dropped to swing support from the early pullback (see the swing indicator), and if I were looking for another trade (I am not) I'd be trailing a sell stop entry below price on this pullback to the ema's and previous support (now resistance?). I don't want to sell short when price is back at the support level. I want to already be short so that if support holds again, I can get out with a smaller than a full -40 tick stop loss. {image}

I think the short entry would have been between 18304.50 and 18305, I wasn't watching so I am unsure.

Target would be around that 18289 price level.
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  • #149
  • Mar 18, 2024 10:54am Mar 18, 2024 10:54am
Quoting vidvad
{quote} I think the short entry would have been between 18304.50 and 18305, I wasn't watching so I am unsure. Target would be around that 18289 price level.{image}
Another +60 tick opportunity. I did not trade it. Too late in the day for me. I am done trading until tomorow.

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  • #150
  • Mar 18, 2024 11:04am Mar 18, 2024 11:04am
I am not married to any set of ema's. My only requirement for myself is to use a shorter ema and a longer ema, and use the longer ema for trend.

Today, for example, I've been showing the NQ 21 renko H-A with 9 ema and 18 ema, a combination I have long used on both renko and time based charts.

If you are trying to trade this or a similar method, and you aren't "seeing" the trend and pullback entries clearly, don't be afraid to experiement with other ema's. For example, don't be married to the 8 ema bands and 34 ema if you are not hitting at least 55% wins and your wins are at least 1.5 times the size of your losses.

And use the tools that really matter: yesterday's high and low, last week's high and low, today's open, and the swing support and resistance levels. Those are levels that the pro level market participants are watching. No one but us are watching renko brick charts with H-A applied lol. We do not matter.

My point is simply this: Use the indi's that the whole market can see, and experiment with the particular set of indi's you use to identify trade opportunities.
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  • #151
  • Mar 18, 2024 11:16am Mar 18, 2024 11:16am
So long as the short ema is > the long ema, and the long ema is trending higher with each candle, I would now be looking for long opportunities. I would wait for a pullback to the ema's and then use the bar status tool to set long entry buy stops above the market.
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  • #152
  • Mar 18, 2024 11:21am Mar 18, 2024 11:21am
Quoting vidvad
So long as the short ema is > the long ema, and the long ema is trending higher with each candle, I would now be looking for long opportunities. I would wait for a pullback to the ema's and then use the bar status tool to set long entry buy stops above the market. {image}
Tracking where the entry level would have to be placed. I would rather we see a red H-A trned candle print first, rather than enter with just the doji. The reason is that there is only 10 points between the current entry and yesterday's high. If I were to buy stop here at 18309.75, I'd take profit at 18318,25, or at least move my stop to breakeven up to + ticks if price gets that high.

It is also possible that there is no long trade to be had here. Price could reverse back into the down trend at anytime without triggering a long trade.
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  • #153
  • Mar 18, 2024 11:26am Mar 18, 2024 11:26am
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  • #154
  • Mar 18, 2024 11:28am Mar 18, 2024 11:28am
18299.25 would be last chance for a long entry for me.

Has to trigger long before another red HA candle.

I'd take +60 ticks profit if it goes that far.
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  • #155
  • Mar 18, 2024 11:31am Mar 18, 2024 11:31am
The long triggered, went nowhere fast and was a loss.
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  • #156
  • Mar 18, 2024 11:34am Mar 18, 2024 11:34am
Had one been using the 34 ema, then this would not have been a long trade at all, but yet another short entry.
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  • #157
  • Mar 18, 2024 11:37am Mar 18, 2024 11:37am
9-18-34 ema's.

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I have used triple moving avenges in the past with good results. One of my favorites is 4-9-18, and I have used both ema's and sma's.
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  • #158
  • Mar 18, 2024 11:38am Mar 18, 2024 11:38am
Quoting vidvad
The long triggered, went nowhere fast and was a loss. {image}
The overall market seemed to be trending down, though it seems itīs losing momentum. I would expect a strong shoot to the upside before looking for longs, also I have ploted 34 ema and that entry was in the downside from it, so in this case it prevented the trade. ( but also prevented other good trades today as using 18 ema would be more appropiate)

Taking good notes from your feedback and recommendations from today! Probaly will stop soon as I want to trade the same hours as you to keep a rutine and not overtade even on SIM. Will just watch chart!

Hugs!
  • #159
  • Mar 18, 2024 11:53am Mar 18, 2024 11:53am
I'm going to be using the following iteration for a few days.

9-18-34 ema's
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  • #160
  • Mar 18, 2024 11:57am Mar 18, 2024 11:57am
Quoting TraderNurse
{quote} The overall market seemed to be trending down, though it seems itīs losing momentum. I would expect a strong shoot to the upside before looking for longs, also I have ploted 34 ema and that entry was in the downside from it, so in this case it prevented the trade. ( but also prevented other good trades today as using 18 ema would be more appropiate) Taking good notes from your feedback and recommendations from today! Probaly will stop soon as I want to trade the same hours as you to keep a rutine and not overtade even on SIM. Will just watch...

"seems" and "expect" are subjective.

My goal has always been to write rules based on the indi's I am using so I don't miss trades because the market "seems" about to do something or I take a trade I shouldn't have taken because I "expected " the market to do something other than what the indi's were suggesting it would do.

When I say my goal was "always" to be as rule based as possible, I mean "ever since I got tired of losing and decided I wanted to be a winning trader."

Once3 in a while subjective thoughts creep in because I'm human and I have an ego. I try to be mindful of them when that happens and then get rid of those thoughts. It is much harder to be mindful of them when you are thinking them yourself than it is to notice them when someone else says them out loud. That is why I mention it now to you. I noticed your subjectivity right away. Subjectivity is the enemy of profitability, in my opinion.
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