Let's Trade Options

Maybe "hot lips".

That's perfect, TF!

Hotlips Russell for ya. she'll make money if the market moves.

I'm going to be looking at the following in the morning, since all my other trades have a Friday expiration coming up:

AJG Put
KMB Put
PM Put
STZ Put

Also DG, but earnings come out Thursday. Zach's seems to thing they will surprise, but I've seen nearly all stocks that indicate on my chart like DG currently is, for them to miss earnings and have the price fall. Probably won't get into it before earnings, but it is tempting to play the odds....

This trade had the perfect worst outcome: RUT finished dead flat on the day. It's an ugly 5-min chart. The premise was that the Russell would move on an outlier CPI. Cpi was hotter than expected. RUT did go down - for a minute there, on the dip under 2050, I saw about a 4x return on the put spread. I was there. I tried to close it. I chased it a bit as it turned and trended back up. Then I gave up. I am not nimble enough sometimes. Not as focused as I should be. Missed that one. Now the trade looks like it could be a total loss, unless RUT moves (hopefully down) heavily in the early hrs of 3/13.

I have tried these types of setups for years. They don't work very well, usually. Which is why I am not risking much on them anymore. Still enough to piss me off though. Mostly because I had a winner in my hand and let it slip away. Trading is a brutal game....

In the following:

KMB Mar28 127 PUT at $1.75

PM Mar28 95 PUT at $1.50

Maybe I can get a Put to do what it is supposed to, because so far they have not been kind....

Easier to sell them. Tomorrow PPI/Retail sales. The meltup market no longer sensitive to inflation data, moreso to recession clues. Maybe retail sales negative miss could sink stox, but I'd guess the Goldilocks story keeps going.

glad RUT has dailies now, looking out a little ways, the $5 1-day diagonal debits $15....risk $15 to make >$350...these will work better on the puts, getting a rise in iv's, I should be shooting these every week. The RUT used to be a mover....

RUT down 2% so far...now we get the move that should've come Tuesday....fml

Out of the following:

MTZ Mar15 85 PUT at $1.35 up from $0.97

KMB Mar28 127 PUT at $2.45 up from $1.75

PM Mar28 95 PUT at $2.70 up from $1.45

Finally, they do what they are supposed to do. I still have three that need to scoot on down my tomorrow, though....

hard to make a bear case for the spoos after half a year of up weeks, but you know there will be a turn. When and how far, we will see. If the Fed pulls some dots next week, sounds hawkish, could be enough for a big down day or two...

The weekly chart for SPY looks like it is poised to go down, so I may look at the Mar28 510 PUT...its a little pricey, about $3.25, so I don't know yet....

With the gap, the Mar28 was too expensive, so got in the following:

SPY Mar21 510 PUT at $3.11

I'm too chicken to hole over the weekend, so I'll get out today, at least with a little profit...

I'm out.

SPY Mar21 510 PUT at $4.01 up from $3.11

Bawk-Bawk....

My other three Puts are DOA, so I'm gonna have a Guinness Draught in their honor at lunch.....but I guess technically I need to have three, right?

I'll check and see if there is anything before the close if I'm not still drink....I mean grieving.

a close <5220 will be 2 consec red weeks for SPX, not seen since Oct '23. Gotta but some sawbucks on btfd for next week. I expect low vol til Fed day, then a bounce back towards 5200...

looking for movement from the RUT post FOMC

In the following:

MMM Mar28 103 PUT at $1.21

SCCO Apr19 100 PUT at $2.95

Let's hope those Guinness' are letting me see my charts right....

when you wrote this SPY was around 514 on 3/14....Friday it did drop to <510. You didn't like the $510 puts trading at $3.25. I'll offer the following criticism with an example.

Based on Friday closing price of ~$510, let's say you think SPY will fall another $5 in the next 2 weeks. Looking at the 3/28 $506 puts, They're trading at $2.90. Pretty steep. The 10-lot long puts/p/L is shown below @ 3/22. Net debit $2,900. Break even on 3/22 would be about $507.10.

Comparing long put vertical spread @ the same date, looking for something that costs 1/2 as much .... the 3/28 $510/506 spread costs $1.48. A 10-lot debits $1,480. Break even is at about $509.75. You can compare the net profit: the spread makes more money than thee long puts until the SPY price gets down to about $505 on 3/22. The spread max profit is going to be limited by the width of the spread.

However, the higher break-even is an argument in favor of the spread. What I have seen you do on your trades is you close pretty quick, usually leaving $$$ on the table. Don't take that as harsh criticism. I do the same thing, also. The tendency is to grab profit when you see it, nothing wrong with that. The tendency maybe is exacerbated when you have bigger size on, i.e, when you have more capital at risk.