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  • #921
  • Jun 26, 2007 7:57am Jun 26, 2007 7:57am
Quoting TEB63
What are your MA an this chart ?

TEB
5 smooth close 8 smooth open
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #922
  • Edited 8:33am Jun 26, 2007 8:23am | Edited 8:33am
Quoting sshhmmuueell
5 smooth close 8 smooth open

Do you put the arrow on?
are they from lower time frames?

What are the time frames you use- how many?
what are the rules you use?


Thanks

TEB
  • #923
  • Jun 26, 2007 9:28am Jun 26, 2007 9:28am
Quoting moneda
Spud,

In a ranging market such as the one you posted above, do you move to the 5 min and do some scalping? or do you wait for the 15/30 to move towards the 4hr and try to go for 20(+/-) pips?

thanks
Same chart of same ranging period below. There are 5 entry opportunities...the first being a 15M scalp targeting for about 5 pips. The others are "normal" entry signals but the first 3 would be quickly exited since the stochastics would reverse on us and we be in play for a good long at the end....this being if we did not recognize the ranging period.
You could flip down to 5 mins on a low spread pair in this situation and scalp the entries (I don't scalp GJ very often because of a 6-7 pip spread I endure but on EURUSD or similar it would be a good strategy).

Notice that all the trade opportunities are trading "to" the 4H stochastic line's position.
Attached Image
  • #924
  • Jun 26, 2007 9:33am Jun 26, 2007 9:33am
Good opportunity to go short GBPJPY. Watch for the 4H to stay below 23.6 and the 1H to drop to over sold....then we will be bringing the pips home. Otherwise get out if the 4H rises above 23.6 or there is any inclination of a turn around. Target for 20 pips and if things keep falling extend that TP. Give the stop some room for the market to bounce around.
Attached Image
  • #925
  • Jun 26, 2007 10:16am Jun 26, 2007 10:16am
I put a stop in a 246.40. Want to be able to gain back any losses if the 15/30/1H climb up to 76.4 level and take advantage of what comes next. We can assume if market passes 246.40 we may be in for a reversal. Don't want to speculate too far ahead on this one as things could just be bouncing and still go down.
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  • #926
  • Jun 26, 2007 11:00am Jun 26, 2007 11:00am
Long spike took out our stop and left me with a -16 pip net. In wait and see mode. Long is tempting but will wait for a better setup because this could just be a stop spike. Want to see where 4H stochastic is at close before speculating direction of price.
Attached Image
  • #927
  • Jun 26, 2007 1:47pm Jun 26, 2007 1:47pm
Quoting Spudfyre
Long spike took out our stop and left me with a -16 pip net. In wait and see mode. Long is tempting but will wait for a better setup because this could just be a stop spike. Want to see where 4H stochastic is at close before speculating direction of price.
price is going down
I went in at 246.58:
I will make that my SL just in case.

TEB
  • #928
  • Jun 26, 2007 3:30pm Jun 26, 2007 3:30pm
Quoting TEB63
price is going down
I went in at 246.58:
I will make that my SL just in case.

TEB
I am out 246.23
I really don't like the GJ
Bye guys
been fun


TEB
  • #929
  • Jun 26, 2007 7:37pm Jun 26, 2007 7:37pm
Quoting Spudfyre
Long spike took out our stop and left me with a -16 pip net. In wait and see mode. Long is tempting but will wait for a better setup because this could just be a stop spike. Want to see where 4H stochastic is at close before speculating direction of price.

hello spudfyre.
Thankyou for the great system you have given us. I really did well on demo account and it has given me confidence as well.
My question is If i have MTF stoch on a single chart and when i switch from 15 to 30, 1hr and 4hr chart it giives a diffrent directions for MTF stoch. Could you tell me which timeframe do you follow to watch MTF stochs lines as you can see on the attachments.

Thanks.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: 15min.jpg Size: 67 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 4hr.jpg Size: 67 KB
  • #930
  • Jun 27, 2007 4:59pm Jun 27, 2007 4:59pm
Hi Spud,

Maybe I have too much time to ponder today but did you ever try to use the MTF Stochastics method and apply it to longer time frames? Instead of 260/60/30/15, how about ....daily/260/60/30...or weekly/daily/260/60? Would you still use 14/3/3 stoch? I am just considering options for those times that I can not spend as much time staring at my monitor.
Unus pro omnibus, omnes pro uno
  • #931
  • Jun 27, 2007 5:04pm Jun 27, 2007 5:04pm
Quoting swizzguy
hello spudfyre.
Thankyou for the great system you have given us. I really did well on demo account and it has given me confidence as well.
My question is If i have MTF stoch on a single chart and when i switch from 15 to 30, 1hr and 4hr chart it giives a diffrent directions for MTF stoch. Could you tell me which timeframe do you follow to watch MTF stochs lines as you can see on the attachments.

Thanks.
I prefer using the 15 min time frame for MTF Stochastics indicator.
  • #932
  • Jun 27, 2007 5:07pm Jun 27, 2007 5:07pm
Quoting moneda
Hi Spud,

Maybe I have too much time to ponder today but did you ever try to use the MTF Stochastics method and apply it to longer time frames? Instead of 260/60/30/15, how about ....daily/260/60/30...or weekly/daily/260/60? Would you still use 14/3/3 stoch? I am just considering options for those times that I can not spend as much time staring at my monitor.
Ya..you got too much time on your hands!
The longer time frames are more difficult to trade because of draw downs. But if you have the stomach for large draw downs it works fine for longer time frames.
  • #933
  • Jun 27, 2007 5:13pm Jun 27, 2007 5:13pm
This will be in my PDF when completed, but since the question of longer time frame trading came up, here is some statistical help.

Stochastic Equilibrium
Stochastic Equilibrium occurs about 85-90% of the time on any time frame or price chart. This means that if we see a movement of the stochastic line from 76.4% to below 50% and that stochastic line reverses and climbs back across 50% than there is an 85% probability that the stochastic line will climb to 76.4%. Likewise, if we have a stochastic line that moved from 23.6% to higher than 76.4% than we have an 85% probability that the stochastic line will fall back to 23.6% after crossing the 76.4% line. The diagram below illustrates Stochastic Equilibrium:
Attached Image
  • #934
  • Jun 27, 2007 8:30pm Jun 27, 2007 8:30pm
Quoting Spudfyre
Ya..you got too much time on your hands!
The longer time frames are more difficult to trade because of draw downs. But if you have the stomach for large draw downs it works fine for longer time frames.

this is my take on longer time frames
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  • #935
  • Jun 28, 2007 5:38am Jun 28, 2007 5:38am
Quoting Spudfyre
Ya..you got too much time on your hands!
The longer time frames are more difficult to trade because of draw downs. But if you have the stomach for large draw downs it works fine for longer time frames.

That is intersting,
I have found they are Way way Way Way easier to trade Way way Way Way less noice.
& the trends are Way way Way Way easier to see.

If you do month, week & day you would almost never lose.
That is behond what I am doing .. but that is how the banks do it
& why they almost never lose.

I am finding the day charts great!!!


TEB
  • #936
  • Edited 6:27am Jun 28, 2007 5:55am | Edited 6:27am
Interesting concept Spudfyre. How did you calculate that the "equilibrium" for this TF you are using is 14? (hence the 14/3/3 setting). I know that Dr. Constance Brown in her Book "Technical Analysis for the Trading Professional" describes on Page 35 in detail how she determines the cycle (equilibrium I guess is also the same thing) for each instrument (being currency or stock). Unfortunately I do not have access to the Omega TradeStation software she uses in order to see whether we are in fact using the correct settings. Would be very good if someone with Omega TradeStation could work that out for everyone here.

I use the 13/4/8 as my main setting for what is really suppose to be the main trend and the 5/3/3 to show me what is happening inside the present direction.

My levels are @ 78,6 and 23,6 - reason being that recent research have shown that 78,6 is superior to the Fib number of 76,4 fwiw.

Would appreciate some comments from you. Thanks in advance.
Hercs
  • #937
  • Jun 29, 2007 9:50am Jun 29, 2007 9:50am
Hi All,

I've been following this discussion with keen interest, and would like to first thank you, Spud, for your brilliant conception and commitment, as well as all the others who have contributed so generously.

This is obviously my first post here on FF, so hopefully the image I've attached will show up correctly.

I made a really bad trade yesterday morning, shortly after 11:00 am EST, but I still can't figure out what happened. The chart is of the USD/CAD, and I went long at the vertical red line when both the 15m & 30m crossed up over 23.6. Almost immediately, the price plummeted down like a lead weight (I seem to have the innate ability to force a market turnaround by simply making a trade in any direction), but to make matters worse I decided I would stick this one out thinking it would come back up before too long, so I moved my stop 100 pips away. But it just kept dropping harder, and I eventually got scared enough to jump ship with a -40 pip loss (good thing, as price eventually dropped -165 pips). Not a good day (trading with real money).

FYI, I usually keep my stops much tighter but often feel they cost me more than if I had not placed them at all.

Can someone tell me what I missed in this setup? And, at what point would you have gotten out? I'd hate to go through this again!

Thanks so much in advance!
Attached Image
Jeff Singer, K2KV
  • #938
  • Edited 2:10pm Jun 29, 2007 10:14am | Edited 2:10pm
Quoting k2kv
Hi All,

I've been following this discussion with keen interest, and would like to first thank you, Spud, for your brilliant conception and commitment, as well as all the others who have contributed so generously.

This is obviously my first post here on FF, so hopefully the image I've attached will show up correctly.

I made a really bad trade yesterday morning, shortly after 11:00 am EST, but I still can't figure out what happened. The chart is of the USD/CAD, and I went long at the vertical red line when both the 15m & 30m crossed up over 23.6. Almost immediately, the price plummeted down like a lead weight (I seem to have the innate ability to force a market turnaround by simply making a trade in any direction), but to make matters worse I decided I would stick this one out thinking it would come back up before too long, so I moved my stop 100 pips away. But it just kept dropping harder, and I eventually got scared enough to jump ship with a -40 pip loss (good thing, as price eventually dropped -165 pips). Not a good day (trading with real money).

FYI, I usually keep my stops much tighter but often feel they cost me more than if I had not placed them at all.

Can someone tell me what I missed in this setup? And, at what point would you have gotten out? I'd hate to go through this again!

Thanks so much in advance!
*************************************************

k2kv,

Thank you for your first post as we all learn from eachother, especially with Spud and the trading room as our support/mentor. If I may, let me just point out a few things that others can agree/disagree and/or add to it:

* the 15/30 did break the 23.6 but the 1hr and the 4hr stochs were anchored
below the 23.6 so you were basically going for a riskier entry.Sometimes the 15min takes off on its own but price does not reflect it.
* Did you notice that the 30 was rounding off a bit?...just something to keep an eye on.

* It seems like you did not have a clear plan for your exit...what was your profit target? Were you going for 10-20 pips? If you are entering trades based on the 15/30 your are probably going a short term trade most of the time unless you get lucky and price continues going in your favor.. so... based on your t/a, it seems to me that 100 pips SL for the usd/cad seems excessive. Good thing you got out at -40... I have adopted the same "wishing for a comeback" approach and it has cost me more than 40pips...

* One last thing... I like the Gbp/Jpy pair for this method for its volatility and I may be incorrect on this since I am only using my own experience, but the price action of the pound/yen seem to be strongly correlated to Spud's method.

Hope this helps you and I am sure Spud and others can help you even further.
Unus pro omnibus, omnes pro uno
  • #939
  • Edited 10:44am Jun 29, 2007 10:37am | Edited 10:44am
Hi Moneda,

Thanks so much for your reply.

I do see that the 30 was rounding off a bit, but it was going up pretty straight when I entered (famous last words). Should I have waited longer to make sure it was going to continue upward? I'm hard pressed to find any available setups where the 1h is in compliance with the 15/30. Perhaps that is telling me something, after all, and I should just sit on my hands until a better setup presents itself.

Yes, I was looking for 10-20 pips, and had originally set my stop for 15p. As a general rule I never move my stop but thought I would try a new approach (LOL)!

Regarding the USD/CAD pair, there is quite a bit of movement, and the spread is much more appealing, compared to the G/J. That said, it may not be as good a match for the MTF Stoch system. The thought of having to make up the 6.5p spread on every trade is somewhat off-putting for me, as I'm having enough trouble making small gains! I have a great deal to learn.

Very helpful, and very much appreciated.

Thanks again!
Jeff Singer, K2KV
  • #940
  • Jun 29, 2007 11:05am Jun 29, 2007 11:05am
k2kv,

If you haven't already, read Spud's MTF Fib Breakout System. Make sure you read it through since he's made some changes (for the better) along the way. You'll learn alot and be pleasantly surprised how often you'll be on the winning side of a trade. Then you can make the transition to this shorter 15min MTF system and understand the manner in which the stochs move a little better. I really find the 1hr Fib Breakout very comfortable to work with. Good luck.
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