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Call me Vidvad - I day trade futures

  • #61
  • Mar 10, 2024 7:46pm Mar 10, 2024 7:46pm
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I read and re-read the first 82 pages of this book. I'll never trade in the style used by Navinder Sarao. However, his story shows what is possible if you master your emotions and your methodology.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #62
  • Mar 11, 2024 6:31am Mar 11, 2024 6:31am
Quoting vidvad
{image} {image} I read and re-read the first 82 pages of this book. I'll never trade in the style used by Navinder Sarao. However, his story shows what is possible if you master your emotions and your methodology.
He had enough money to weather the draw downs though. And it was probably the companies money on the line. Did his bosses ever fret over his trading approach I wonder?
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #63
  • Mar 11, 2024 6:42am Mar 11, 2024 6:42am
Quoting vidvad
CL HOLO second bit of the apple for 2 successful HOLO longs. Shouldawouldacoulda ... but today was not the day. My shoes are on and I am heading out the door. On a regular day where I had the whole morning to trade, I would have taken this second one.{image}
Do you execute on the one hour time frame Vidvad?
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #64
  • Mar 11, 2024 7:51am Mar 11, 2024 7:51am
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Do you execute on the one hour time frame Vidvad?
Yes, because it is based on the highest hourly open and lowest hourly open. However, I do not wait for an hourly candle to close before entering. For example, if price drops below today's lowest hourly open which is currently 77.33, I will place a buy stop at 77.33 so as to initiate a long if price comes back through the open.

I only use the 5 minute CL chart for trailing stop placement.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #65
  • Mar 11, 2024 7:52am Mar 11, 2024 7:52am
Quoting turnip15
{quote} He had enough money to weather the draw downs though. And it was probably the companies money on the line. Did his bosses ever fret over his trading approach I wonder?
They did indeed worry about his over trading. If you ever have a chance to read the book you will see he and the owners were constantly "negotiating" over his desire for ever increasing buying power.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #66
  • Mar 11, 2024 7:57am Mar 11, 2024 7:57am
The yellow dotted lines show the level of the current HOLO levels. The situation is complicated by the fact that Friday's low and Last week's low are right at where the current trading range's low is. Buying when price comes back up through the previous day's low or previous week's low is often a good strategy. Today price has had a chnace to come back through both. This means two things: 1) Price may not now come back to the Lowest Hourly OPen during my trading window, and 2) If price comes back down to the Lowest Hourly Open, then that will be the second time price has failed to hold above those two important lows (Friday's low, last week's low) and would therefore be in breakout mode. The reversal must be traded with caution.
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  • #67
  • Mar 11, 2024 8:05am Mar 11, 2024 8:05am
Today is futures roll date so will now be trading the NQ June contract and not the March contract. There appears to be no news today to act as a catalyst for a sustained move, though we do look to have a gap down open at 9:30 AM.

I will probably only look for potential CL HOLO trades today. I'll probably not trade NQ today, and will wait instead to start my NQ trading week tomorrow.

EDIT: I should clarify and say that I will sim trade NQ today in my personal SIM account. But I will not be trading in the prop account or my live money account. Today is a practice day for me on NQ.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #68
  • Mar 11, 2024 8:31am Mar 11, 2024 8:31am
Long CL HOLO trade as it appears on the Tradovate platform
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Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #69
  • Mar 11, 2024 9:05am Mar 11, 2024 9:05am
First HOLO long was -19 ticks. Now there is a new lowest open at $77.18 and price is testing lower. So I have a buy stop at 77.18. If this trade triggers, it will be the last HOLO trade of the day for me no matter the result.

Here is how it looks on Ninjatrader.

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EDIT: Keep i mind that CL is below last week's low and Friday's low, so we are in breakout mode. Today would have been one of those days where trading the five minute 821 chart would have been quite profitable. I am considering a rule where breakout mode +821 trend = No HOLO trades. I need to do more back testing. I'll not make any changes though until I either pass or fail this current evaluation challenge. I can only make changes AFTER a 10 trade challenge OR I pass or fail an evaluation.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #70
  • Mar 11, 2024 9:25am Mar 11, 2024 9:25am
Current HOLO hourly chart with buy stop at the current lowest hourly open.
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The M5 821 chart shows how strong and persistent the selling has been thus far.
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Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #71
  • Mar 11, 2024 9:36am Mar 11, 2024 9:36am
Given that it is rollover I waited for something very clear. I bought the break above the consolidation and kept buying. +60 tick target on the average long was filled.
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Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #72
  • Mar 11, 2024 9:41am Mar 11, 2024 9:41am
Quite a pull back and no continuation UP attempt? Back to test that swing resistance level.

I don't want to develop any bad habits on a practice day, so I am done with the NQ for today.
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I would think that NQ would rally and test Friday's low as resistance and try to reverse the breakout during NYSE hours. But who knows? That would be my guess though.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #73
  • Mar 11, 2024 9:48am Mar 11, 2024 9:48am
CL is still in breakout mode. I moved my stop to +1. Price is fighting at yesterday's low as aI type. I will take the money and run if the bulls fumble at last week's low.
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Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #74
  • Mar 11, 2024 9:49am Mar 11, 2024 9:49am
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Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #75
  • Mar 11, 2024 10:11am Mar 11, 2024 10:11am
CL 821 Chart
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CL HOLO Chart
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I exited with a market order on Tradovate. I added a second contract when the 10:50 M5 candle broke the high of the 10:45 M5 candle. My total profit for the 1st day of HOLO evaluation is $310.32.

You can see in this most recent snapshot below that CL is still struggling against yesterday's low and last week's low. HOLO is an excellent method. But it is still just a method, and it is not the market itself. I have a lot of respect for how price acts at these highly visible pivotal areas, i.e. the previous day's high and low, the previous week's high and low, and today's opening price.
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I am done for the day.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #76
  • Mar 11, 2024 10:17am Mar 11, 2024 10:17am
Quoting vidvad
I would think that NQ would rally and test Friday's low as resistance and try to reverse the breakout during NYSE hours. But who knows? That would be my guess though.
The blue line is yesterday's low, and NQ did indeed rally to test that breakout level.
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Because of the way renko and Heiken-Ashi are constructed, it appears that price tested but fell short of yesterday's low. However, we know from the data as presented on the standard M5 candlestick chart that price did attempt to penetrate yesterdays' low.
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My opinion, based on many, many hours of live trading and back testing is that no matter what method you are trading, if you are not posting these pivotal price levels on your chart you may as well be trading with your eyes closed.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #77
  • Mar 11, 2024 10:28am Mar 11, 2024 10:28am
+50 tick HOLO long target hit. Again,. I exited early because of the inability of consecutive M5 candles to remain above last week's low.

You just don't know how or when or even IF price is going to fight its way through pivotal areas to hit your profit target or not. That is why I Only give it one chance to do so. If it fails that chance, I exit rather than have all the profit drained from a trade, or worse, have a profitable trade turn into a loss.

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I'm done for the day with both trading and posting. See you tomorrow.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #78
  • Mar 11, 2024 10:40am Mar 11, 2024 10:40am
Thanks Vidvad for sharing your version of HOLO. I took the same trade today and it was profitable. It really is such an easy system to follow and the rules are so clear. If the wick is bigger than 25 ticks like it was today, do you always set your stop loss at 25 when the wick is big? Thanks for confirming. Have a good day.
  • #79
  • Mar 11, 2024 12:23pm Mar 11, 2024 12:23pm
Quoting Ed777
Thanks Vidvad for sharing your version of HOLO. I took the same trade today and it was profitable. It really is such an easy system to follow and the rules are so clear. If the wick is bigger than 25 ticks like it was today, do you always set your stop loss at 25 when the wick is big? Thanks for confirming. Have a good day.
Yes, for the purpose of the prop eval account, I am using -25 ticks as the max loss.

So if the low of the day is 40 ticks below the entry, my stop loss will be 25 ticks below the entry.

If the low of the day were 14 ticks below the entry, then the stop loss would only be 15 ticks below the entry.

Stop loss goes below the low of day for a long trade OR -25 ticks, whichever one is LESS.

This is by no means the only way to do this. As you might remember from our discord room, I also will use the larger stop loss if I am targeting a larger profit. For example, a HOLO long trade where I am long at the lowest hourly open might target the highest hourly open as a take profit level. On a day like today that would have been a profit target of +97 ticks. If I had targeted that size profit, I'd have allowed for a max loss of -48 ticks (half the size of the profit). Since the low of day was 38 ticks below the lowest hourly open, then I would have been able to use a stop loss of -40 ticks.

For me, when it comes to composing a trading plan for HOLO, what is key is to plan a max loss that is no more than 1/2 of your typical profit target.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #80
  • Mar 11, 2024 12:25pm Mar 11, 2024 12:25pm
Quoting Ed777
Thanks Vidvad for sharing your version of HOLO. I took the same trade today and it was profitable. It really is such an easy system to follow and the rules are so clear. If the wick is bigger than 25 ticks like it was today, do you always set your stop loss at 25 when the wick is big? Thanks for confirming. Have a good day.
I sim traded this HOLO short, ed.

See the stop loss is not quite above the high of the day. That is because a stop above the high would be larger than my max loss of -25 ticks.

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Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
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