The Swamp

Yeah.. I got SO .. sidelines .

The week average at 133 pips (see pink in chart). Each 13 pips above 6609 is 10% above average. Just for the hell of it using the AUD in this example. Let's say NFP turns out to be better than the market is set for. PA atm in anticipation is 10% above weekly average. A above average move has already happened. If it turns out a green NFP number all this may retrace. We dont see another NFP report for 1 month. The month average at .6267. With 3 weeks to go. PA has time to move the average month range of 357 pips. Upper month range at .6834. 0.6550 is between these 2. Without knowing anything about trading using pure numbers. When the number comes out. Just by chance of the numbers. With the week above average. A green number would favor a retrace taking it all back. Plus into a LL toward the month range. If the numbers are bad. PA has priced 10% above average this week. It may do more before NFP.

It may set up a decent run if the number is green. If not, you didnt take the trade. You lose nothing. Once the number comes out in the example as green. The risk pip amount gets reduced.

todays 65 pip move being 28% above 51 average. Pink

closing the next hour on aud below 6618 can fall some. 6609 may support.

The 15 min has it trying

This candle may have started a fall.

The 30 min is open still. It may concur after close

-6624ish may let it run sideways in som consolidation. But the candle formed bearish in this rising trend. sideways mat be 6609/6624.. since it did close below 3318. It may help a drop. How much is not known. 6609 can support
30 min is the largest close below 6624. next h close closes a 4h. It may be stronger
equal balance at 6601

AUD 4h did close below 6624.. Lets see if thats it for bulls for now.

AU While above 0.6595 next targets might be 0.6660 and 0.6695

I fell asleep after posting. It did start closing above 6624. The bull side of 6624. Next h close is a 12h close. PA is already well above week's range. Ditto about 6624 on a close. The high now at 6638. PA has been closing above 3324 for hours. depending on time used trading. That was the time to close a short.

The EUR lost its groceries' here. When I posted AUD with the week being well past range I envisioned this like on the eur For the AUD. It jumped above 6624, that was not bearish

Its above this pic at 6644 now..
About 167% above week average.

Today's Support & Resistance on MT5 Template

EURO
CABLE
GOLD

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...5#post14786755

GOLD probably won't turn till it hit 2200

Took a AUD short 6644.8
Week range high at 174% of average
S/L above 6648 high

I should of closed this counter trend trade at 6646 manually. I didnt .. off to bed

Bring on the NFP

2164.72 closes below may let gold fall.

Closed + may rise. 2171.08

I got lucky.
I moved stops to b.e.