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Highs and lows of previous 4 months and 4 weeks

  • #41
  • Mar 5, 2024 8:50pm Mar 5, 2024 8:50pm
Hi Ravi,

I trust all is well with you. This is a bit off topic, but I see you are somewhat a fan of stories so I thought I would share this one with you. Take a look at the story titled "The Miller, His Son & Their Ass." I think you just might find this interesting. I too like a good story or fable, but most fail to interest me.

Read & enjoy. Let me know what you think.
  • #42
  • Mar 6, 2024 8:26am Mar 6, 2024 8:26am
Quoting RaviKiran
yes i lost almost 500 USD today It is wrong sir. Can u please guide sir. My sincere request. pls by some fluke , I think I got over a few succesfull trades, nothing more {image}
Ravi, I can see that you're fighting to make profit, but you're not following any of the rules you were talking about!
This fact makes this thread totally useless.

You should change the title of this thread to:
Trade Whatever You See Fit, As Long As Your Profit >> Loss
.ex4/.ex5 files can't be fixed or modified / I'm not a coder!
  • #43
  • Mar 6, 2024 9:18am Mar 6, 2024 9:18am
Quoting BestTraderEv
{quote} Ravi, I can see that you're fighting to make profit, but you're not following any of the rules you were talking about! This fact makes this thread totally useless. You should change the title of this thread to: Trade Whatever You See Fit, As Long As Your Profit >> Loss
Sir,
Agreed, please design a strategy. PLS so that we do not keep hopping on from one to another.
At least never, I have won straight 7 trades in a row ....pls guide
Ravi Kiran T V
  • #44
  • Mar 6, 2024 10:20am Mar 6, 2024 10:20am
Quoting RaviKiran
{quote} Sir, Agreed, please design a strategy. PLS so that we do not keep hopping on from one to another. At least never, I have won straight 7 trades in a row ....pls guide
Well, there you have it!
I keep telling you this, and you don't understand!
First and foremost, You need to acccept losses!
This is the basic thing in trading.
If you can't accept losses, you will never profit.
If you want to do trading with the mindset that you will make money, you will lose money.
You need to come with the mindset that you will lose money, and that's OK, that's normal!
There is absolutely no strategy which will not lose money!
Nobody needs 7 wins in a row.
We only need 50% wins in order to make profit.
But we also need RR > 1:1.

You can use this online calculator:
https://www.forexsignals.com/monte-c...ation#use-tool

I input these parameters:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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And here are the calculations:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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The results show that in the best scenario (green) we can profit even with 50% wins, and 5% Break Evens, and RR=1:1 (1.0) .
In the worst scenario (brown) we lose.
In the most possible scenario (blue) we, more or less Break Even.

Now change only the win ratio to 55%:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Now, make the RR better, 1:1.5 (1.5):
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2024-03-06_172011.jpg Size: 93 KB


So, you are taking your losses emotionally and aiming for unrealistic ideals!
Every time you lose, you are taking it personally and you are looking for immediate "revenge".
You will never become a good trader with this way of thinking!
.ex4/.ex5 files can't be fixed or modified / I'm not a coder!
  • #45
  • Mar 6, 2024 11:12am Mar 6, 2024 11:12am
Really interesting sir
thanks for the input.
today my account went into madness
I still dont know when to close the position....i think it is greed. i will follow your rules of the application
Ravi Kiran T V
  • #46
  • Mar 6, 2024 12:52pm Mar 6, 2024 12:52pm
Now, let's do this:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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We get this:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2024-03-06_195126.jpg Size: 88 KB

We lowered win ratio and increased RR to just 2.
.ex4/.ex5 files can't be fixed or modified / I'm not a coder!
  • #47
  • Mar 6, 2024 12:59pm Mar 6, 2024 12:59pm
Quoting RaviKiran
Really interesting sir thanks for the input. today my account went into madness I still dont know when to close the position....i think it is greed. i will follow your rules of the application
Yes, you made profit.
OK, let's say that you invested $10,000 into your trading account in January, and managed to double the account in March.
It doesn't matter how you did this - maybe a good strategy, maybe pure luck.
What's the first thing you should do when you have doubled the account?
.ex4/.ex5 files can't be fixed or modified / I'm not a coder!
  • #48
  • Mar 6, 2024 2:27pm Mar 6, 2024 2:27pm
This statistic is even more interesting:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Look at the bottom summary.
.ex4/.ex5 files can't be fixed or modified / I'm not a coder!
  • #49
  • Edited 12:20pm Mar 7, 2024 11:48am | Edited 12:20pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Overall you may be profitable, but what you're doing makes completely no sense at all.
There is no strategy other than "I must recover my losses at any cost." - by chasing rabbits...

I mean, the PA picture on H1 is clear, it can't be more clear...
And just don't pay attention to anything...

There is a clear-cut Bullish Break of the SR Zone, in a Bullish Tendency.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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And, if we zoom out in order to see where this Bullish trend began, we see this:
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.ex4/.ex5 files can't be fixed or modified / I'm not a coder!
  • #50
  • Mar 7, 2024 12:52pm Mar 7, 2024 12:52pm
@BestTraderEv: Thanks for you input. I'm an old semi pro trader or better say 20Years+ (i'm not that old). I know all that stats and going with the trend, though, I never made really money with that kind of strategy. Don't get me wrong, I'm able to make about 12% p.a. on risking 1%. That is quite good I think but I use only retrace trading, also making my losses back.

As it looks like you are profitable with that kind of trading, "follow the trend". Here are some issues I never understand:
First the spread:
If you aim for short term trading to get much more trades and less money per trade on same reward in absolute numbers you need very low spreads.
If you play with 5 pips SL and 10 pips TP my rule is max. 1 Pip Spread. -Even if you are +/- 0 you need to have an Risk:Reward Ratio of 1:1.2 (only to be equal due to spread costs).

I never found trend trading systems wih a better R:R than 1:1.2. And as I said: For bigger TP like 20pips your avg. Trades per day go down a lot and you have to risk more per trade.

Another problem with trend trading systems for me is the target profit. Lots of very good trend traders use flexible target profits. If you use static target profits like 50 pips, the R:R can differ from 1:1.2 on static TP to 1:3 on variable TP if you are really good. And here is the problem: You anticipating the market movement. That's what I don't understand: No one really can do that so how is it possible that some people can use that in their advantage.

One thing I have not analyzed yet: The "BIG" 4 in sync: on monthly up, daily up, hourly up and 5 minute up and then, only then, you enter a trade. But I'm sure: If I backtest that scenario with an Indicator (for example moving avg's all in sync) I promise the R:R will not exceed 1:1.2 so my conclusion om pure trend trading is that you need at least a TP of 30 pips on avg to avoid the bad effect of the spread on forex and that means very little trades per day. I watch now 50 currency pairs and about 100-200 trades per day with a bad spread but it works. Impossible with pure trend trading due to too high TP needed.

When you look at your own stats, are you really that profitable? Or do you have a monthly trading ending minus? That would be interesting to hear from you. Thanks for reading and all the best for RaviKiran and you of course.
  • #51
  • Edited 3:49pm Mar 7, 2024 3:05pm | Edited 3:49pm
Quoting JackintheBox
@BestTraderEv: Thanks for you input. I'm an old semi pro trader or better say 20Years+ (i'm not that old). I know all that stats and going with the trend, though, I never made really money with that kind of strategy. Don't get me wrong, I'm able to make about 12% p.a. on risking 1%. That is quite good I think but I use only retrace trading, also making my losses back. As it looks like you are profitable with that kind of trading, "follow the trend". Here are some issues I never understand: First the spread: If you aim for short term trading to get...
You are right about one thing:
In order to do strictly trend trading we need a trending instrument.
If we are talking about Forex, strictly, it's hard to find a good trending pair.
From my observations and experience, we tend to chase the price, and that's a big factor why we lose.
The reality is that every trade has a begining and an end.
And there are max two good opportunities to get into the move early.
If we miss those opportunities, we shouldn't try to get into a fast moving train!
And we often try to do that, anyways...

Looking at the GBPUSD example from above, the only optimal entry was there:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2024-03-07_220145.jpg Size: 316 KB

So, we had to wait quite a long time for the trend to develop, for the BIG Guys to Accumulate.

Also, the big picture counts, what has been going on on MN1, W1 and D1.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2024-03-07_220447.jpg Size: 54 KB

I call this Trend Trading.

BTW, stuff like 100 trades per day?
I would think that a trader with 20+ years of experience has long grown out of such ideas...

PS. I don't use MA's in the classical sense. I use AVWAP (Anchored Volume Weighted Average Price).
You can take a look at the VWAP strategies here:
Inserted Video


Talking about spreads:
If you want to trade the M1 charts, obviously you need a "Zero Spread" broker.

Talking about anticipating the price movement:
We aren't supposed to anticipate anything.
We are supposed to have a strategy and a system, and just follow it - not anticipate anything.
.ex4/.ex5 files can't be fixed or modified / I'm not a coder!
  • #52
  • Mar 7, 2024 5:42pm Mar 7, 2024 5:42pm
Considering what the charts are saying, buying this pair isn't a good idea:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2024-03-08_004146.jpg Size: 343 KB
.ex4/.ex5 files can't be fixed or modified / I'm not a coder!
  • #53
  • Mar 7, 2024 6:13pm Mar 7, 2024 6:13pm
Quoting BestTraderEv
Considering what the charts are saying, buying this pair isn't a good idea: {image}
Hi, Best. What is the full name of this vwap supp/res indicator?
  • #54
  • Mar 7, 2024 6:28pm Mar 7, 2024 6:28pm
Quoting veter
{quote} Hi, Best. What is the full name of this vwap supp/res indicator?
I constructed this one myself.
It's Anchored VWAP with a standard deviation channel.
Based on these:
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 VWAP New01 button.mq4   19 KB | 286 downloads

Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 VWAP_MIDAS_Channel_v3 BT.mq4   12 KB | 305 downloads

Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 XU-VWAP XU-20200811 button mod.mq4   28 KB | 270 downloads

Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 Anchored VWAP Channel.ex4   218 KB | 321 downloads
.ex4/.ex5 files can't be fixed or modified / I'm not a coder!
  • #55
  • Mar 7, 2024 6:32pm Mar 7, 2024 6:32pm
Quoting besttraderev
{quote} i constructed this one myself. It's anchored vwap with a standard deviation channel. Based on these: {file} {file} {file} {file}
you are really the BEST!!! Thank you very much! God bless you!!!
  • #56
  • Mar 7, 2024 6:37pm Mar 7, 2024 6:37pm
Quoting veter
{quote} you are really the BEST!!! Thank you very much! God bless you!!!
Like I said in one of my earlier posts elsewhere:
I don't understand you guys problem.
I think I'm using the same Google as you are?
When I was working on the idea, I used Google and found all of them.

Why can't you guys do the same?
It's simple, you just Google "Anchored VWAP.mq4", or "AVWAP.mq4".
And then you might have to look through some web sites...
.ex4/.ex5 files can't be fixed or modified / I'm not a coder!
  • #57
  • Mar 7, 2024 8:58pm Mar 7, 2024 8:58pm
Quoting BestTraderEv
{quote} I call this Trend Trading. BTW, stuff like 100 trades per day? I would think that a trader with 20+ years of experience has long grown out of such ideas... .
Thanks for reply. I think the reason why trend trading is profitable is a very tiny edge (as I said, 1:1.2 seems already to be enough) - but I can see on lots of profitable trend traders (like you obviously) that the amount of trades or better say, the timeframe of HOW LONG you keep a trade is mostly quite long (so the amount of trades is low and the risk per trade quite high (probably >$100 each trade)). That is very interesting because you also avoid the spread problem with that kind of trading (TP's >20 pips). My problem with that kind of strategy is that -even If I trade/watch 10 currency pairs- the amount of trades is too little for me because you can have than even a month period where you make losses (means 30 days trading and you are in minus on monthly base).

Regarding trading 100 trades per day: The big advantage of that is that I'm able to risk very small amount per trade so if a trade runs against me I can form a bigger position slowly, digging out myself due to market volatility. But here comes the funny part: I also make my biggest profits with "trend trading" so to say: In general I lose less in a slowly dropping market than the market itself due to volatility usage (that is the same like "Trend Trading" losses: You lose lots of small amounts and win big later). If the market is finally turning/corrects I make all losses back and a big extra win. That is sometimes awkward because all the "hard" work of in and out, fighting about pennys for sometimes 2 weeks, pays off in few days in general 100 times or even more - but that process can also take up to 4 weeks if it goes bad for me.

Sometimes I "feel" that: Now I'm on the wrong side. I think that's the point where you enter you trend trades and where it goes against me. That "feeling" is may be 20% of time when I'm in a longer trade which funny enough is exact the amount of markets are trending. Than I think: Ok, now you got me but I get myself out of that again. And that always worked for me since months now.

To conclude and find a similarity in trading profitable: You must lose less money in losing trades than the market does. You achieve that by using SL's, I achieve that by losing less pips than the drop itself was (e.g. drop was 100 pips over 3 days and I lose "only" 60 pips due to in and out trading). I never managed to withstand such long draw down periods (>1 Month) with trend trading psychologically.

So I admire people like you who can trade like that. Your approach has also a big advantage regarding growing your account. You can risk more than me so your R:R ratio is may be even worser than mine but the overall amount per trade can be much bigger so you can grow much faster. Thanks for you input, all the best.
  • #58
  • Mar 8, 2024 2:09am Mar 8, 2024 2:09am
Quoting BestTraderEv
{quote} Like I said in one of my earlier posts elsewhere: I don't understand you guys problem. I think I'm using the same Google as you are? When I was working on the idea, I used Google and found all of them. Why can't you guys do the same? It's simple, you just Google "Anchored VWAP.mq4", or "AVWAP.mq4". And then you might have to look through some web sites...
You will not believe, but before I asked you the original name of indicator, I was searching on google and duckduckgo for this indicator from the picture in different way. But I was looking for vwap support resistant, vwap supp/res, even was trying to find by uploading picture. Yes, google giving a lot of results, but not what exactly I was looking for. After few times of unsuccessful trial, I asked for your help. Thank you again!
  • #59
  • Mar 8, 2024 2:42am Mar 8, 2024 2:42am
Guys is it possible to trade not using highs and lows of previous 4 months and 4 weeks but using highs and lows of previous 3 months and 3 weeks?
Or may be highs and lows of previous 3.33 months and 3.33 weeks is better? How you think?
Observer effect
  • #60
  • Mar 8, 2024 6:38am Mar 8, 2024 6:38am
Quoting ryuryu
Guys is it possible to trade not using highs and lows of previous 4 months and 4 weeks but using highs and lows of previous 3 months and 3 weeks? Or may be highs and lows of previous 3.33 months and 3.33 weeks is better? How you think?
Is it possible?
Sure! You can trade any levels you want!
However, levels don't mean anything - unless you have some insider info and know where all the BIGs have their positions.
Also, if you have access to the real trading volumes and see what's going on at the specific level.
But, there are no real volumes for Forex, because it's OTC.
The best volumes for Forex come from the Forex Futures, but they still aren't the real reflection of the global Forex Exchange (Interbank).
Only banks have access to Interbank.

The thing that we have and which we need to trade are THE CHARTS!
Any level can be respected, or rejected - there are no rules.
The charts are the reflection of what's going on - and if one can't read the charts, one will be "shooting blind".
.ex4/.ex5 files can't be fixed or modified / I'm not a coder!
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