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  • #21
  • Mar 5, 2024 10:25am Mar 5, 2024 10:25am
Quoting Ed777
Hey Vidvad....you are on fire. . Congradulations on an amazing trading day. You are an inspiration that we can be successful. What size renko bars are you using on your NQ trades?
21 renko today, ed
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #22
  • Mar 6, 2024 5:33am Mar 6, 2024 5:33am
Oil HOLO chart, Today we get the weekly inventory data at 10:30 AM Eastern. Wednesdays are a day of caution for me when trading oil. Trading range activity ahead of the data news often makes for unsatisfying trades.

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Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #23
  • Mar 6, 2024 5:36am Mar 6, 2024 5:36am
Rally started at the start of the last half hour of the NYSE session yesterday and cranked higher all night long. What goes down, must go up!

Starting to range at the highs. I prefer to trade a breakout/continuation higher or a sharp trend reversal lower. Going to be sitting still for now. If no clear direction establishes itself, I"ll be waiting for the NYSE open to place a trade.

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Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #24
  • Mar 6, 2024 7:36am Mar 6, 2024 7:36am
Oil in breakout mode today so I won't be trading the HOLO reversals today.
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  • #25
  • Mar 6, 2024 7:43am Mar 6, 2024 7:43am
NQ Trades today were total profit of +73 ticks. I didn't trade until after the Jerome Powell speech was released at 10 AM. Best trade of the day for me was the first short after the Powell news.

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Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #26
  • Mar 6, 2024 12:13pm Mar 6, 2024 12:13pm
Oil did have a HOLO short during the last hour of my trading window. I was not watching/paying attention any longer and so I did not take it.

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My secondary chart for oil is what I call the "821" chart, which is a five minute chart with an 8 and 21 ema.

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Both offer a great approach to trading oil. I prefer the HOLO, myself. Today the 821 gave good entries into the long breakout of the early hours. It also would have gotten me on the right side of the market even after I missed the HOLO short. Again, I was done fo rthe day at that point and had "checked out." I wasn't even in my office during these opportunities.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #27
  • Mar 6, 2024 12:18pm Mar 6, 2024 12:18pm
Final note for the day: The first two shorts I took on the NQ were in full compliance with the method. The final set of trades, while yielding a small profit, were only profitable because I actively managed them and closed them early. You can see from the black bar I place on the chart that the 34 ema was flat, not trending, and the 8 ema bands were waffling along the 34 ema. Those final trades should not have been taken. I should have been waiting for eith the 8 ema's and price to start trending below the 34 ema again. OR, taken the long signal that occurred sometime between 10:36 and 10:46 AM.

Sometimes I trade well, and sometimes I just get lucky. That final trade set? I traded poorly but got lucky. The lucky part was that I did "snap out of it" and recognize I did not take a bona fide system signal and so I closed the trade and at the time I closed it, I happened to be on the right side of the equity curve. I would have closed it regardless of the p/l at the time.

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Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #28
  • Mar 6, 2024 12:46pm Mar 6, 2024 12:46pm
Quoting vidvad
I have copied and pasted below the rules for the original HOLO presented by too slow. I do not use any of the rules that have been added later to try to make it easy for those who were too stupid to be able to trade by the original rules. The new rules make it more confusing, imo. If you're interested in learning the HOLO, the following is all you need to learn: HIGHEST OPEN / LOWEST OPEN TRADE Place a line at the highest H1 open and lowest H1 open for the current day. Sell short at the highest H1 open after price goes up through it and comes back...
Thanks for sharing.
  • #29
  • Mar 6, 2024 12:59pm Mar 6, 2024 12:59pm
Congratulations and Good Luck Amigo, subscribed.
  • #30
  • Mar 6, 2024 1:58pm Mar 6, 2024 1:58pm
Vidvad...your honest critique of your trades is a wonderful sharing for learning how to improve win loss ratio. For example, when you shared above that 8ema and 34ema being on the flat side were not trades that you should have taken...i found that helpful.
  • #31
  • Mar 7, 2024 5:29am Mar 7, 2024 5:29am
What goes down must go up (like a rocket), day two.
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  • #32
  • Mar 7, 2024 6:51am Mar 7, 2024 6:51am
Looks like a mess because of the way Ninjatrader marks trades, but this was a very good day. I started trading at a time, but as price moved in my favor I' kept adding another lot.

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I'm going to switch over to demo account now to keep practicing for the rest of the morning. But I am done live money trading for today. One of the things that I fight against is that when I have more than $1K in closed profits, I don't like continuing out of fear I'll give it back. That is one of the things keeping me from sizing up. That is something I am working on this year.

That is a total of +222 ticks gross, or +204 ticks net after commissions and fees.

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  • #33
  • Mar 7, 2024 6:59am Mar 7, 2024 6:59am
HOLO Oil chart: There was a HOLO long trade this morning right around the time the 7AM Eatsern hourly candle opened. I try to be at my desk for Oil by 7 AM but today I was over an hour late. Needless to say I missed that trade. It went +49 ticks and reversed. So I would not have had a +50 tick profit but looking at the five minute chart, which I use to help trail a stop loss, I would likely have been stopped out with a +22 tick profit.

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Price did come back down to the lowest open (the LO of "HOLO") but I will not taken a second HOLO long since 1) price did not rally at least +50 ticks from the first entry and 2) price did not test the highest open (the HO of "HOLO).

IF this current candle closes below the current lowest open, THEN Oil will have a NEW Lowest Open (LO).

I will then look for a HOLO long.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #34
  • Mar 7, 2024 7:22am Mar 7, 2024 7:22am
NQ, 21 renko Heiken-Ashi with a study of the 34 ema and price interactions at that level.

I am not implying anything "magical" about this ema. The ema is where it is at any moment because of where price has already been moments before. Indicators to not predict. They are visual tools to help us see what price has been doing.

This is a study of the efficacy for me and my eyes of the 34 ema as a tool to keep me from doing stupid things.

Price does not "find support" or "find resistance" at this or any other moving average.

Price is going to do whatever it is going to do. Moving averages are footprints or "contrails" of where price has already travelled. The contrail from a jet might lead us to believe that the jet is going to continue its current trajectory and path, however, seeing the contrail really tells us nothing about the jets ultimate altitude, when it will level off, when and to what level it might find it necessary to descend, and if it is going to crash or land safely. It just shows where it has been, not where it is going.
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  • #35
  • Mar 7, 2024 7:27am Mar 7, 2024 7:27am
Oil is now testing the low of day AND yesterday's low. So a rally through the new Lowest Open at $78.32 will trigger a long trade with a +50 tick target.
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  • #36
  • Mar 7, 2024 7:33am Mar 7, 2024 7:33am
Oil (CL futures contract) HOLO long trade.

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Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #37
  • Mar 7, 2024 8:01am Mar 7, 2024 8:01am
Oil made an initial push high to $78.55. It then pulled back below the Lowest Open, and made a slightly higher high at $78.57. My stop is now moved up to +1 tick as there is the possibility that the second high, which has been quickly sold, is a little double top or bear flag high. This is how I manage these trades.

Initial stop loss is either below the low or day or -25 ticks, whichever is the smaller loss, i.e. I never lose more than -25 ticks on one of these trades.
I generally am very patient with trailing my stop loss. I use the five minute chart as a guide. Right now we have the 5 minute chart still stuck in short mode (8ema<21ema) and so if price gives a double top indication after a retest of the LO, it is time to protect myself from a full loss bu moving the stop loss to +1 tick.
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  • #38
  • Mar 7, 2024 8:05am Mar 7, 2024 8:05am
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Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #39
  • Mar 7, 2024 8:17am Mar 7, 2024 8:17am
Quoting vidvad
Oil made an initial push high to $78.55. It then pulled back below the Lowest Open, and made a slightly higher high at $78.57. My stop is now moved up to +1 tick as there is the possibility that the second high, which has been quickly sold, is a little double top or bear flag high. This is how I manage these trades. Initial stop loss is either below the low or day or -25 ticks, whichever is the smaller loss, i.e. I never lose more than -25 ticks on one of these trades. I generally am very patient with trailing my stop loss. I use the five minute...
CL the 8ema is now above the 21 ema, so I will now trail the stop loss one tick below the five minute candles.

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Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #40
  • Mar 7, 2024 8:23am Mar 7, 2024 8:23am
+ 50 tick take profit target has been filled. HOLO strikes again.

I've said it before and I'll say it again: If you have been trading for a while, bouncing from system to system without becoming consistently profitable, then choose you favorite instrument, back test it to come up with a solid 2:1 profit to loss ratio (for me, I use +50/-25 on CL), and then do the 10 trade challenge that too slow recommends in his thread. Don't make the rules too complicated. The rules should be money management rules. Don't try to filter and guess which HOLO's trades will be profitable, and which will be a loss. It isn't possible. This latest trade is a good example of a long trade that struggled and seemed to have everything against it, and yet patient money management rules won out in the end. Had it been a loss it would have been no big deal. HOLO is a money machine printing money widgets. Many of the widgets are good (profitable trades) but a small number are defective (losing trades) and we simply throw the defective widgets on the discard pile while we keep our money machine in good order by simply operating according to the rules.
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