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Predicting Short-Term Direction and S/R Using Indicators

  • #41
  • Mar 2, 2024 11:40pm Mar 2, 2024 11:40pm
Quoting axecap
Hi Monemaker, can you please let ne know your BB settings. And do you change them for the differnt time frames? thanks
I use the standard 20 period, 2 standard deviations set to the close (although for some reason it defaulted to 15 and 2 for a while, but I think that was fixed). I keep that and all my other indicators the same for all time frames.
  • #42
  • Mar 2, 2024 11:48pm Mar 2, 2024 11:48pm
Quoting axecap
{quote} I trade similarly in terms of visual, and short term direction with higher lot size and use EMA's and a couple of oscillators. DTO , RSi and also williams awesome oscillator. Ive not had a lot of scces with BB hence the question above, keen to have another look. {image}
I don't look at BB as a system in and of itself, but only as part of a bigger picture. I trade exclusively off the BB ONLY if the entire body of a candle is outside the BB (and it is not the result of a big move after news). Otherwise, the info from the BB just gets added to the other indicator info to see if a setup is or will occur.

All of my indicators are used together, such as the upper BB and RSI for a divergence, or RSI and BB/EMA for support and resistance. Be careful looking at one indicator to drive an entry; they are much more powerful if several indications are telling you the same thing.
  • #43
  • Mar 3, 2024 12:27am Mar 3, 2024 12:27am
Quoting axecap
{quote} I trade similarly in terms of visual, and short term direction with higher lot size and use EMA's and a couple of oscillators. DTO , RSi and also williams awesome oscillator. Ive not had a lot of scces with BB hence the question above, keen to have another look. {image}
This is the difference the BB makes on a chart to me:

While the chart you posted has the same info, to me (probably because I have traded this chart setup for so long) it just pops right off the chart with the BB. Very easy for me to see, not only when it is ready to trade, but the potential setup so I have time to get ready (check news, see if something else is making the same setup, etc.).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUD4hr2.png Size: 47 KB
  • #44
  • Mar 3, 2024 12:49am Mar 3, 2024 12:49am
Yes thanks. Confluence of a few good indiactors is what im looking for. I like a clean chart and am comfortable
trading with very little but looking to improve entry and exit with good confidence.
There are many good indicators but you get paralyzed waiting for all the stars to align.
But at the same time a like a bit more than just my instincts.
I watched a vid today with John Bollinger as to how he uses it, but he mainly trades stocks, so less aggressive, but still a good watch.
EURAUD is one of my go to pairs, seem to always have reasonably predictable moves for 20pips, within a range.


Inserted Video
Its all just one persons opinion
  • #45
  • Mar 4, 2024 8:50am Mar 4, 2024 8:50am
A possible RSI Divergence developing on the Daily EUR/AUD chart today or tomorrow.

Also a possible one developing on the 30m USD/CHF (No chart attached for this one)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUDDaily3.png Size: 41 KB
  • #46
  • Mar 4, 2024 9:02am Mar 4, 2024 9:02am
Quoting moneymaker2
A possible RSI Divergence developing on the Daily EUR/AUD chart today or tomorrow. Also a possible one developing on the 30m USD/CHF (No chart attached for this one) {image}
USD/CHF 30m chart RSI Divergence did not materialize.
  • #47
  • Mar 4, 2024 2:52pm Mar 4, 2024 2:52pm
EURCAD daily?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 10 KB
Its all just one persons opinion
  • #48
  • Mar 4, 2024 3:34pm Mar 4, 2024 3:34pm
Quoting axecap
EURCAD daily? {image}
It does look like a classic setup, the only issue is that there is only one down candle after the first high. Normally for a good setup, there are two down candles before reaching the second high. I would be careful with this one, because often, especially when price rides the BB, the first opposite candle is not a reversal, but just a retracement candle. You can see that easily when price is on the bottom BB, but it applies to the top, also.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURCADDaily1.png Size: 40 KB
  • #49
  • Mar 4, 2024 3:48pm Mar 4, 2024 3:48pm
It could reverse, but I look for the high confidence, safe trades. I guess this is my version of R:R, rather than a number. If the trade doesn't look very good and very safe and I am very confident it will do what is expected, I just don't enter a trade. And if I enter a trade and something changes that alters my confidence level, I get out. But it is that stubbornness and apathetic style of trading that allows me to to make very good money trading, regardless of the instrument.
  • #50
  • Mar 4, 2024 6:24pm Mar 4, 2024 6:24pm
Here is a trade off the ERU/JPY 4hr chart. Should be good for 10+ pips.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURYEN4hr1.png Size: 40 KB
  • #51
  • Mar 4, 2024 7:22pm Mar 4, 2024 7:22pm
nice got in. 163.10 would give me 18pips, looking good
Its all just one persons opinion
  • #52
  • Mar 4, 2024 7:28pm Mar 4, 2024 7:28pm
Closed for just over 10 pips. I don't use stops (except emergency 50-100) but I ALWAYS put in a take-profit order as soon as I enter a trade. I set it for slightly over 10 pips (superstitious about making it exactly 10.0000 pips) and if I'm at the computer and can make more, I just cancel it and manually close. But if I'm away, I can snag the 10 pips anyway.

I don't know why, but it seems like it is a lot easier to get just over 10 pips, than say 15 pips or 25 pips. And I don't just mean the overall price movement, but just faster and safer. Maybe it just seems that way because that's what I am looking for? Ten pips may not seem like a lot, but this one paid the electric bill. When you look at it in that perspective, a few of these every day makes a big difference in your quality of life!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURYEN5min1.png Size: 36 KB
  • #53
  • Mar 4, 2024 7:39pm Mar 4, 2024 7:39pm
Quoting axecap
nice got in. 163.10 would give me 18pips, looking good
Just out of curiosity, how did you pick 163.10 as your target?
  • #54
  • Mar 4, 2024 8:06pm Mar 4, 2024 8:06pm
should have got out as well I hung on... and then out for 8 pips...Just
I see you dropped to M5 to exit. Makes sense...I like your use of different time frames entry and exit.

163.10 looked to me to be in line with ema 10 on H4 at the time I entered and also some previous support.
I seldom hit my initial TP ...end up getting out based on $ ....Just need to be less greedy....thats what appealed to me in terms of your comments on your trading.
Stop loss i use what i call a hail mary stop....seldom let it get there either but just in case shit happens.
I also sometimes add to a wining trade so might get 15 to 20 pips on the first trade then a bonus 8 to 10 on the second
Its all just one persons opinion
  • #55
  • Mar 4, 2024 8:11pm Mar 4, 2024 8:11pm
Good job! You won't go broke taking a profit!
  • #56
  • Mar 4, 2024 8:22pm Mar 4, 2024 8:22pm
Are there FX pairs that you prefer, or do you scan everything for opportunities
Its all just one persons opinion
  • #57
  • Mar 4, 2024 8:48pm Mar 4, 2024 8:48pm
Quoting axecap
Are there FX pairs that you prefer, or do you scan everything for opportunities
I scan probably 15 pairs. Several of those I only trade if something is happening because of the slow movement/big spreads/small range.

My favorites are GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP, and USD/JPY. I'll trade others for longer term trades off a 4hr or Daily chart, but unless it is moving, I typically don't.

I do not like the EUR/USD, I think it moves too slowly, and I don't like to normally trade CHF pairs. I look at an average candle on the 15min chart and if I can't make 10 pips in two normal candle movement, I don't trade it. Like USD/CHF...it seems to take forever for price to move 10 pips plus the spread. I don't want my money tied up any longer than needed, and I can't wait 2 hours and 8 candles to MAYBE make 10 pips on something slow moving. But, if they have a good setup on a longer chart (4hrs and greater), I'll trade them and keep my take profit settings tight.

I recommend getting 4-6 pairs you like trading and get very familiar with them. See how they move in relation to other pairs. See how they move at the different market openings and closes. See when their spreads widen and tighten. Then you get comfortable with them and if nothing else, it makes you more confident when you predict a setup.
  • #58
  • Mar 5, 2024 4:48pm Mar 5, 2024 4:48pm
Quoting moneymaker2
A possible RSI Divergence developing on the Daily EUR/AUD chart today or tomorrow. Also a possible one developing on the 30m USD/CHF (No chart attached for this one) {image}
Well, it did form on the Daily chart.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUDDaily4.png Size: 36 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUD1min1.png Size: 44 KB
  • #59
  • Mar 5, 2024 6:46pm Mar 5, 2024 6:46pm
USD/JPY 1hr chart indicates a small trade.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDYEN1hr1.png Size: 43 KB
  • #60
  • Mar 5, 2024 8:01pm Mar 5, 2024 8:01pm
Quoting moneymaker2
USD/JPY 1hr chart indicates a small trade. {image}
Didn't materialize, so I'm out. Lost a little over 5 pips.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDYEN30min1.png Size: 41 KB
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