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Let's Trade Options

  • #19,421
  • Feb 26, 2024 8:04pm Feb 26, 2024 8:04pm
Quoting The Fool
otoh, I could see RUT faltering on rate fear, dropping below 1950 next week
I have been misreading the Russell, and it keeps up divergence from the SnP & the Naz. But we'll see what the week brings. I am holding lots of trades until Friday, probably will do nothing new unless I adjust some of those.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,422
  • Feb 27, 2024 12:59pm Feb 27, 2024 12:59pm
Quoting The Fool
otoh, I could see RUT faltering on rate fear, dropping below 1950 next week {image}
rolled up the 1935 RUT calendar to 1980, for an added 50c debit. I guess I'm just a glutton for punishment.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,423
  • Feb 28, 2024 11:59am Feb 28, 2024 11:59am
GENERAL idea this week is we will drop on hot PCE Thursday. I'm in cheap XSP double diagonal as shown....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,424
  • Feb 28, 2024 12:02pm Feb 28, 2024 12:02pm
more concerned about the downside, I hedged put tail risk with the 2x long puts shown. Hedge cost 50c, eliminates the tail risk, could increase profit. idk, I could be wrong on all assumptions, maybe will hedge the upside, too..
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,425
  • Feb 28, 2024 12:33pm Feb 28, 2024 12:33pm
Quoting The Fool
maybe will hedge the upside, too..
...small fiasco if nothing moves. Anyway, I'll sleep easier....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,426
  • Feb 29, 2024 1:47pm Feb 29, 2024 1:47pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}...small fiasco if nothing moves. Anyway, I'll sleep easier....
...sideways day not helping my directional plays, maybe ISM tomorrow will help the bears....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,427
  • Feb 29, 2024 2:44pm Feb 29, 2024 2:44pm
I've already written off my GE Puts for tomorrow....still have time on my others, though.
  • #19,428
  • Feb 29, 2024 5:04pm Feb 29, 2024 5:04pm
Seasonality favors a decent pullback, but idk....the bull is strong especially in the Russell.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,429
  • Mar 1, 2024 12:01pm Mar 1, 2024 12:01pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}...small fiasco if nothing moves. Anyway, I'll sleep easier....
came out of the XSP combo with small loss....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,430
  • Mar 1, 2024 2:16pm Mar 1, 2024 2:16pm
JPow will have to bring the hawk next week....you can't lower inflation with stock indices making new highs every week....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,431
  • Mar 3, 2024 2:07pm Mar 3, 2024 2:07pm
20 years of SnP months. No reason we can't string together green candles into the Summer, if the Fed stays dovish. SPX > 5700 b4 the election in sight. Admiring the increase in monthly ATR since 2018. I still remember 2010-2018, monthly range dead <100 pts, dead money for options traders....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,432
  • Mar 4, 2024 9:23am Mar 4, 2024 9:23am
Out of the following:

AKAM Mar15 110 CALL at $2.60 up from $1.62

AKAM MAR15 115 CALL at $0.52 avg up from $0.36

Probably have more upside, but the volume and chart just isn't there any more.
  • #19,433
  • Mar 4, 2024 9:26am Mar 4, 2024 9:26am
Quoting The Fool
, if the Fed stays dovish. SPX > 5700 b4 the election in sight.
JPow talks to Congress Wednesday & NFP Friday. I need a red week or two to help some challenged SPX ICs. Need Jerry to "stay higher longer" to hawk freak out the runaway AI bulls.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,434
  • Mar 4, 2024 1:56pm Mar 4, 2024 1:56pm
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,435
  • Mar 4, 2024 2:58pm Mar 4, 2024 2:58pm
trying this XSP weekly combo again. These will make money if the market moves on the week. Even a 20-lot comes in <$200 each side, with no tail risk.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,436
  • Mar 4, 2024 3:17pm Mar 4, 2024 3:17pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}JPow talks to Congress Wednesday & NFP Friday. I need a red week or two to help some challenged SPX ICs. Need Jerry to "stay higher longer" to hawk freak out the runaway AI bulls.
You and me both, brother!
  • #19,437
  • Mar 4, 2024 6:46pm Mar 4, 2024 6:46pm
Wanna see something that makes you go ? Check out MSTR Mar15 PUT $500 out of the money!
  • #19,438
  • Mar 4, 2024 7:51pm Mar 4, 2024 7:51pm
That pig was trading at $500 just a month ago, it has gone from $700 to $1350 in 6 days. How much of the stock price froth is directly related to their BTC holdings, with BTC exploding also in the last month?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,439
  • Mar 4, 2024 8:01pm Mar 4, 2024 8:01pm
Quoting moneymaker2
Wanna see something that makes you go ? Check out MSTR Mar15 PUT $500 out of the money!
you're looking for a way to fade MSTR's crazy run, no?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,440
  • Mar 4, 2024 8:07pm Mar 4, 2024 8:07pm
here are the bigger MSTR options trades today...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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