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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #7,121
  • Jun 27, 2007 4:49am Jun 27, 2007 4:49am
Quoting el_duende
GJ with 38% fib level hit exactly, good idea for a long from here?

UJ also at its 50% fib level at around 122.50
Nice observation. Thanks. I am a bit shaky but already went long there, based on my analysis of the situation before.
Rgds.
t.
always expect the unexpected!
  • #7,122
  • Jun 27, 2007 5:16am Jun 27, 2007 5:16am
A good sign of accumulation 5 hr bars go and now letting the late shorts in me thinks near term, Or they are letting late longs in and gonna kick dem in da face.
Trying a long at 44.46 since volume was the highest since early april, think they are making a stand here.
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #7,123
  • Jun 27, 2007 5:20am Jun 27, 2007 5:20am
It is looking bearish still, a breach of that fib line and there may be another big drop.
  • #7,124
  • Jun 27, 2007 5:21am Jun 27, 2007 5:21am
They must be waiting to buy on dips now. As long as there will be huge interest rate gaps between JPN and other currencies, Carry will continue. As you may know, a Japanese housewife in Tokyo made 407 million with currency trading, though she was indicted for tax evasion in April this year...ugh.

They really could move the markets, anyway.

Quoting jest1081
lol, i miss Desperate Housewives!!!
They really do move the markets.
  • #7,125
  • Jun 27, 2007 5:32am Jun 27, 2007 5:32am
Quoting el_duende
GJ with 38% fib level hit exactly, good idea for a long from here?
In my opinion, no. A fib level is just ONE element of support, so it's not very strong. Personally I base my trades off confluences, the more the merrier.

That's why I will wait for 243.00 to begin searching for reversal formations for a possible long opportunity. There's a confluence of support there:

  1. Up-trendline
  2. Dynamic Area of Support
  3. 50% fib
  4. previous swing high (former resistance now support)

PS: one concern though: monthly chart, zoom out, 1992...

Attached Image
  • #7,126
  • Jun 27, 2007 5:36am Jun 27, 2007 5:36am
Is it me or is that guy showing the Mighty Middle Finger o'Power to someone?
Attached Image
  • #7,127
  • Jun 27, 2007 5:48am Jun 27, 2007 5:48am
Quoting OrionsWay
A good sign of accumulation 5 hr bars go and now letting the late shorts in me thinks near term, Or they are letting late longs in and gonna kick dem in da face.
Trying a long at 44.46 since volume was the highest since early april, think they are making a stand here.
Added 44.16 tp 44.79-45.28 ish depending on the flow
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #7,128
  • Jun 27, 2007 6:04am Jun 27, 2007 6:04am
Quoting el_duende
It is looking bearish still, a breach of that fib line and there may be another big drop.
You are right with that. That's why I am shaky. But nevertheless we did move already 250 pips for today, so the downside potential at least for today seems limited to me.
rgds
t.
always expect the unexpected!
  • #7,129
  • Jun 27, 2007 6:04am Jun 27, 2007 6:04am
I think we'll see 245.xx today during the NY session. I closed my short from 246.38 at 244.10 and will look to open fresh shorts after triple swap Wednesday is out of the way. Perhaps 245.55 or so as a complete retrace of the major 4h bar of this recent push downwards.

I think we've just touched the surface of this overall down turn and completely expect big drops on Thursday and Friday.

The carry trade is far, far, far from over and won't be over until interest rate differentials are more equitable, but we're going to see a much better price to enter our longs after the new financial year begins next week.

I could be wrong, but I don't see myself going long until Monday at the earliest.
  • #7,130
  • Jun 27, 2007 6:08am Jun 27, 2007 6:08am
short since 247.25.
adding and adding and adding and etc shorts on the way.
neat.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #7,131
  • Jun 27, 2007 6:08am Jun 27, 2007 6:08am
Quoting nathbear
I think we'll see 245.xx today during the NY session. I closed my short from 246.38 at 244.10 and will look to open fresh shorts after triple swap Wednesday is out of the way. Perhaps 245.55 or so as a complete retrace of the major 4h bar of this recent push downwards.

I think we've just touched the surface of this overall down turn and completely expect big drops on Thursday and Friday.

The carry trade is far, far, far from over and won't be over until interest rate differentials are more equitable, but we're going to see a much better price to enter our longs after the new financial year begins next week.

I could be wrong, but I don't see myself going long until Monday at the earliest.
Think your right, But cant excuse this super high volume buying, maybe need for a nimble mind.
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"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #7,132
  • Jun 27, 2007 6:08am Jun 27, 2007 6:08am
wow, i went to bed for 6 hours, and this much happened, plus you guys whoredpost the thread, 6 or 7 pages. dang. but i like it :-D
im long from 244.07 after the bounceback!
  • #7,133
  • Jun 27, 2007 6:17am Jun 27, 2007 6:17am
Think they maybe looking for 100 bar MA before rollover tonight
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #7,134
  • Jun 27, 2007 6:25am Jun 27, 2007 6:25am
exit all short positions here @ 244.35.

no positions held for this pair.

cha-ching!
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #7,135
  • Jun 27, 2007 6:25am Jun 27, 2007 6:25am
Quoting nathbear
I think we'll see 245.xx today during the NY session. I closed my short from 246.38 at 244.10 and will look to open fresh shorts after triple swap Wednesday is out of the way. Perhaps 245.55 or so as a complete retrace of the major 4h bar of this recent push downwards.

I think we've just touched the surface of this overall down turn and completely expect big drops on Thursday and Friday.

The carry trade is far, far, far from over and won't be over until interest rate differentials are more equitable, but we're going to see a much better price to enter our longs after the new financial year begins next week.

I could be wrong, but I don't see myself going long until Monday at the earliest.
Hi Nathbar,

I tend to think the same, also I am relatively a newbee. I guess it is important to look at the 1 Day stochs (5,3,3). These are far from showing end of correction. And the UJ which is usually followed by GJ or they go at the same pace (but GJ never faster) still has some room to go down, considering the support on the 1 Day chart, which means that GJ also has some room to go down. I don't suppose we reach the bottom anything faster then tomorrow or Friday. That's only my view. Other opinions welcome.

Regards

Mike
  • #7,136
  • Jun 27, 2007 6:46am Jun 27, 2007 6:46am
S&P down
  • #7,137
  • Jun 27, 2007 7:01am Jun 27, 2007 7:01am
The M1, M5, M15 are now in an upward trend.

M30 & H1 are still south. Time will tell. If we break the 38.2 fib at 243.96 we could see this go farther south.

If we don't break the 243.96 then we will be looking at 250+ in our near future.
  • #7,138
  • Jun 27, 2007 7:10am Jun 27, 2007 7:10am
243.96 will break, but likely not until at least late afternoon NY session. More likely tomorrow during Tokyo or London.
  • #7,139
  • Jun 27, 2007 7:11am Jun 27, 2007 7:11am
Quoting Sniper
I like the shampoo and conditioner
I still like it
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  • #7,140
  • Jun 27, 2007 7:12am Jun 27, 2007 7:12am
Quoting yezbick
The M1, M5, M15 are now in an upward trend.

M30 & H1 are still south. Time will tell. If we break the 38.2 fib at 243.96 we could see this go farther south.

If we don't break the 243.96 then we will be looking at 250+ in our near future.
I agree on that
always expect the unexpected!
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