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AUDUSD Trading Analysis: Clinging to Fibonacci Support and 50 EMA

Solid ECN – In today's trading sessions, the Australian dollar trades around 0.655 against the U.S. Dollar, clinging to the 23.6% Fibonacci support and the 50 EMA. However, other technical indicators are providing a bearish signal. The RSI indicator has crossed below the median line, and the bars of the awesome oscillator have turned red and are about to flip below the signal line.

From a technical standpoint, the 0.6532 level supports the bullish momentum, which broke out from the descending trendline, depicted in blue on the AUDUSD 4-hour chart. If the price stays above this level, the 38.2% Fibonacci support could still be the target. This resistance level is further supported by the upper line of the bullish flag, depicted in red on the chart.

Despite these factors, the bullish scenario seems weak for this pair. This can be figured from the candlesticks, where the number of full-bodied bear candles exceeds the bull candles.

Conversely, if the AUDUSD price falls below the 50 EMA, the decline from 0.6594 could lead to the bottom of the bullish flag. This scenario is more likely to play out.

Therefore, traders should monitor the 50 exponential moving average closely.

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US Building Permits Dip Slightly in January 2024

Solid ECN – In January 2024, the US saw a slight drop in building permits by 0.3%, adjusting to 1.489 million from the previous month's 1.493 million, yet this was still above the early estimate of 1.470 million. The permits for more significant developments, specifically those with five or more units, decreased significantly by 5.8% to 419 thousand, marking the lowest point since October 2020.

However, there was a positive turn in the permits for single-family homes, which climbed 2.2% to reach a 20-month peak of 1.021 million. Geographically, permit numbers went down in the South by 7.8% to 793 thousand but rose in other areas: 0.3% to 339 thousand in the West, 5.6% to 208 thousand in the Midwest, and a substantial 52% to 149 thousand in the Northeast.

NZDUSD: Inside Bullish Channel and Above Fibonacci Resistance

The NZDUSD pair is trading around 0.6180, inside the bullish channel and above the 38.2% Fibonacci resistance level. Although the technical indicators are giving mixed signals, from a technical standpoint, the trend is bullish.

As long as the Fibonacci level holds, the next milestone for the pair could be the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance, which is the 0.6239 mark.

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Natural Gas Prices Edge Up Amid Oversupply Issues

Solid ECN – US natural gas prices slightly increased to just over $1.65 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) after falling by 7.5% in the previous session. This change is happening as the market deals with an excess supply, high levels of storage, and reduced need for heating because of the hot winter. Nevertheless, there is some upward pressure on prices as producers cut back on how much they produce.

Although there was a short interruption in supply in January because of freezing weather, gas production is still at all-time highs. The warm conditions have resulted in much higher than average gas reserves, with recent data from the Energy Information Administration indicating that storage is 22.3% above normal levels. Chesapeake Energy has reduced its production outlook for 2024 by about 30% after a significant price fall to the lowest point in over three years. Important companies like Antero Resources, Comstock Resources, and EQT have also reduced their drilling and production activities due to the current market scenario.

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USDJPY Pair Analysis: Bullish Channel and Ichimoku Cloud

Solid ECN – The USDJPY pair is testing the lower band of the bullish channel, which coincides with the Ichimoku cloud. The 4-hour chart has formed a doji candlestick, which can be interpreted as a signal for the continuation of the bull market.

From a technical standpoint, if the Ichimoku cloud remains intact, the bullish trend should continue, and the first milestone would be the 150.8 resistance.

On the other hand, if the USDJPY price falls below the Ichimoku cloud, the consolidation might extend to the 148.9 support.

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EURUSD Trading at 1.085 Amid Multiple Resistance Levels

Solid ECN – The EURUSD currency pair trades around 1.085 today. Currently, the price is in conjunction with multiple resistance levels. These include the 38.2% Fibonacci support, the upper band of the bearish flag, and the rising trendline. While the technical indicators give mixed signals, the EURUSD 4-hour chart has formed a long-wick candlestick pattern, which can be interpreted as the bears being more active than the bulls in the current session.

From a technical standpoint, the primary trend remains bearish as long as the price is suppressed below 1.0865s, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. However, for the downtrend to continue, the price must fall below the ascending, precisely the 1.0832 mark.

On the other hand, the uptick momentum that began on February 13th should continue if the bulls cross above the Fibonacci level under discussion and maintain a position above it.

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Gold Analysis: Bearish Signals Emerge Amid Technical Indicators

Solid ECN – The price of gold has fallen to \$2,030 against the U.S. dollar, reaching the lower band of the bullish flag, depicted in red. The Awesome Oscillator indicator shows signs of divergence, suggesting that the bears attempt to cross below the \$2,028 threshold. Adding to this bearish sentiment, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator is closing below the median line, lending credibility to the recent XAU/USD price decline.

From a technical perspective, for the bull market to continue, the price of gold needs to stabilize above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, a task that it failed to achieve this week.

On the flip side, if the price crosses the bullish flag and maintains a position below the \$2,039 resistance level, the decline will likely extend its reach to the Ichimoku cloud, a resistance level further powered by the 50% Fibonacci level.

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EURUSD Analysis: Bearish Trend is Likely to Continue

Solid ECN – The Euro traded around 1.082 against the U.S. Dollar in Wednesday's trading session, stabilizing itself below the broken ascending trendline, as illustrated in the 4-hour chart. This breakout could be interpreted as a temporary or long-term shift in market direction, transitioning from a bull to a bear market.

Furthermore, as the EURUSD tests the 38.2% Fibonacci support level, technical indicators suggest that the decline, which began from the 1.0865 higher low, is likely to continue.

Therefore, from a technical standpoint, with the price maintaining its position within the bearish flag, depicted in black lines, the bear market is expected to extend and potentially test the 50% Fibonacci support, followed by the 61.8% level.

Conversely, the 1.0866 level acts as resistance. The bearish outlook should be invalidated if the EURUSD price exceeds this level.

U.S. Dollar Leads in Today's Market Against GBP

Solid ECN – The U.S. Dollar is leading in today's trading against the pound sterling, with the GBPUSD pair trading around 1.263. The Ichimoku cloud supports this price area. From a technical standpoint, for the downtrend to continue, bears must stabilize the price below this level. Although technical indicators support a bearish scenario, there is still a chance for the bulls to take control, especially if the 1.2611 level holds firm.

In conclusion, the price must fall below the cloud for the bear market to extend further. Otherwise, we will likely witness the GBPUSD pair rise again, aiming for the 1.2709 resistance level.

Recent Drop in 30-Year Mortgage Rates to 7.04

The standard interest rate for 30-year fixed mortgages with average loan amounts (up to $766,550) fell slightly by 0.02% to 7.04% for the week ending February 23, 2024, as the Mortgage Bankers Association reported. This figure is 0.33% above what it was a year ago. Mike Fratantoni, the chief economist at MBA, noted in a statement that the recent surge in rates has led to a reduction in mortgage applications, significantly impacting those applying for FHA and VA refinancing loans.

USDJPY Bullish Trend: Key Resistance and Potential Invalidations

Solid ECN – As expected, the USDJPY price rose from the 150.0 mark, maintaining a bullish trend due to this resistance level. For the pair to continue its growth, the bulls must break above the 150.88 resistance.

Conversely, the bull market could be invalidated if the price dips below the cloud, specifically below the 150.0 mark.

Anticipated Rise of Pound Sterling: A Clear Signal from Technical Indicators

Solid ECN – As anticipated, the pound sterling has once again risen from the support zone of the Ichimoku cloud, the 1.2621 mark. Today, the technical indicators are providing a clearer signal. With the RSI flipping above the median line and the appearance of green bars on the awesome oscillator, we can forecast that the bull market will likely expand further.

The first significant milestone for the bulls is reaching the February high of 1.2709. Interestingly, this resistance level is reinforced by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, adding to its significance.

However, it's important to note that if the GBPUSD price falls below the cloud, the validity of the bull market could be called into question. This is a crucial point to remember as we monitor market trends.

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AUDUSD Analysis: Breaking Bullish Trends and Testing Fibo Level

Solid ECN – The U.S. dollar broke below the ascending bullish channel in yesterday's trading session against the Australian dollar. Interestingly, the pair tested the broken support, which now acts as resistance, specifically at the 50% Fibonacci level or the 0.6521 mark.

The technical indicators give mixed signals: the RSI is bearish, while the Awesome Oscillator signals a bull market.

Based on the price action, the 50% Fibonacci level plays as resistance, and it is expected for the downtrend to extend to the 78.6% Fibonacci support, followed by the February low at 0.6442.

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The bearish outlook for the AUD/USD pair should be invalidated if the price stabilizes itself above the 50% Fibonacci level.

Gold Price Analysis: Potential Bullish Breakout

Solid ECN – The yellow metal is testing the $2,037 mark. What distinguishes this resistance area is its conjunction with the 61.8% Fibonacci level and the descending trendline, depicted in blue.

Upon examining the price action, we observe that the divergence in the awesome oscillator couldn't initiate a shift in the market. Consequently, the Gold price remained above the 50% Fibonacci level and the Ichimoku cloud. With the RSI indicator hovering above the 50 lines, it is likely for the price to make a bullish breakout and climb to the 78.6% Fibonacci resistance, corresponding to the $2,048 mark.

On the other hand, if the XAU/USD price dips and stabilizes below the 50% Fibonacci support, the bullish analysis will be invalidated. In such a scenario, the price might experience a further decline to the 38.2% level.

USDJPY Experiences Significant Downward Momentum

Solid ECN – The USDJPY is experiencing significant downward momentum in today’s trading session. The pair has crossed below the Ichimoku cloud and is trading around 149.2 at the time of writing. Interestingly, the RSI indicator has entered the oversold area below 30. Therefore, considering the primary trend is bullish, the price might test the previously broken support, the Ichimoku cloud.

From a technical standpoint, the data from the USDJPY 4-hour chart indicates that the uptrend will be on pause for a while, and the decline will likely extend to the 23.6% Fibonacci support, corresponding to the 148.3 mark.

On the flip side, bulls must push the price above the Ichimoku cloud again for the uptrend to continue.

Silver Prices Surge Amid US Economic Updates

Silver Analysis – Silver's price rose above $22.5 per ounce, thanks to a weaker US dollar, as market players reacted positively to new economic data from the US. The Federal Reserve closely monitors the core PCE price index, which increased by 0.4% from January last month, aligning with analysts' predictions.

Furthermore, the year-on-year rates have hit their lowest point since 2021, reinforcing the view that inflation is staying on its expected path. In other developments, initial jobless claims were slightly higher than expected, reducing concerns over an overly tight job market. Market participants anticipate 79 basis points in Fed rate cuts in 2023, with expectations for the initial reduction in June. As borrowing costs fall, the attractiveness of non-income-generating assets like silver increases.

Gold Prices Stay High Amid Steady US Inflation Data

Solid ECN – Gold prices remained above $2,040 an ounce last Friday, marking the second week of gains. This trend follows the latest U.S. inflation data, which met expectations and continued to support the anticipation of Federal Reserve interest rate reductions this year. The recent data revealed that core PCE prices in the U.S., an inflation measure closely watched by the Fed, increased by 0.4% month-over-month in January. This is a jump from the 0.1% rise seen in December, aligning with forecasts.

Furthermore, New York Fed President John Williams commented that he anticipates the central bank will lower interest rates later in the year, driven by decreasing inflation and a stable economy. He also mentioned that he doesn't foresee circumstances requiring another Fed rate hike.

Currently, the market anticipates roughly a two-thirds likelihood of a Fed rate reduction in June, with expectations for no changes in March and May.

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