Daily Technical Analysis by Capital Street FX

Fundamental Analysis Report With Charting Trends - 06 June 2023

MARKETS CONSOLIDATE BEFORE THE CENTRAL BANKS

After a good week-ending, global markets had a day of consolidation yesterday, albeit at elevated levels. As investors considered next week’s Fed announcement, the major US indices experienced a mixed day, with the Dow losing 0.59%, the S&P declining 0.2%, and the Nasdaq closing just over flat. The ISM Service PMI came out weaker than expected at 50.3 versus the predicted 52.6, which caused the dollar to take a slight dip following the first significant data release of the week from the US. Oil dropped back after its OPEC-inspired spike, and WTI returned to trading around the $72/barrel level. Gold bounced off the $1,940 mark once more.

CENTRAL BANKS AND UPCOMING DATA

As there were few macroeconomic data releases on the calendar yesterday, the financial markets had a little break. Today, however, there are a few significant events coming up. The Australian market, where the RBA will publish its most recent rate decision, will be the center of attention throughout the Asian session. Investors are divided over their course of action. Major announcements are absent from the European session, but the US session is expected to shift attention to Canada when the Ivey PMI statistics are released as a preview of tomorrow’s Bank of Canada decision.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
GBPUSD
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The bullish momentum on the GBP/USD chart indicates an upward trend.

1.2377 is the initial support level, which is also known as overlap support. Price has already bounced off overlap support, showing that it is an important level where buyers may enter the market.

1.2306 is a swing low support and serves as the second level of support. During the most recent downward price movement, this price level served as support; it may do so once more.

1.2467 is the initial resistance level. The 50% Fibonacci retracement level and an overlap resistance level both indicate this level.

1.2536 is the second resistance level. As an overlap resistance level that is also at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, this level is further strengthened. Resistance and a significant Fibonacci level together frequently signal a firm price ceiling.


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Fundamental Analysis Report With Charting Trends - 07 June 2023

MARKETS TAKE A DIVERSION BEFORE THE DATA.

The bulk of the main stock indices had reasonably calm days yesterday, which gave the global financial markets a brief respite. In the US, the major indices all closed slightly higher on the day, with the Dow up 0.03%, the S&P up 0.24%, and the Nasdaq up 0.36%. The RBA’s unexpected rate increase for the second time in a row and news from the US that the SEC is still targeting cryptocurrency companies, this time with Coinbase facing charges, was the day’s major highlights. With the exception of the Australian dollar following the RBA decision, the dollar rose against the majority of the major currencies on the day.

YET ANOTHER CENTRAL BANK, ANOTHER DAY

Yesterday was a pretty calm day for the markets, and as the trading day goes on, investors will be turning to the event calendar for some new vigor. With the announcement of the most recent GDP figures this morning, the Asian market will once more turn its attention to Australia first. A 0.3% increase in quarter-over-quarter statistics is anticipated. Investors will be watching today’s release of Chinese trade data in hopes of some encouraging results. Again, there aren’t many data releases during the European session, but the Bank of Canada’s most recent rate announcement will shift attention back to Canada at the start of the New York session.

WHAT HAPPENED IN THE ASIAN SESSION?

Australia’s GDP growth for the quarter was 0.2% as opposed to the predicted 0.3% and the prior 0.6%, which is less than anticipated. This slower economic expansion could harm the AUD. Chinese trade balance data are mixed, with a lower USD-denominated trade balance of 65.8 billion dollars (compared to a forecast of 95.2 billion dollars and previous 90.2 billion dollars) and a higher CNY-denominated trade balance of 452 billion dollars (compared to a projection of 676 billion dollars and previous 618 billion dollars), which may indicate AUD volatility.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
GBPUSD
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The price is currently above a significant ascending trend line on the GBP/USD chart, indicating the possibility of additional upward movement.

This momentum suggests that the price may continue to rise in the direction of the first resistance level at 1.2467. The 50% Fibonacci retracement serves as a support for this level, which is designated as an overlap resistance level.

While the second support level at 1.2305 is a swing low support, the first support level at 1.2376 is known as an overlap support.

Furthermore, the second resistance level at 1.2536 is a high resistance with several swings.

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Fundamental Analysis Report With Charting Trends - 13 June 2023

STOCK MARKETS ARE UP, WITH THE NASDAQ UP 1.5%.

On hopes that the Fed will conclude its tightening cycle this week, US stock markets rose sharply once more yesterday. All the main US indices had good days, with the Dow rising 0.53%, the S&P rising 0.93%, and the Nasdaq once more setting the pace, closing 1.53% higher thanks to Apple Inc. reaching a record high. Both the S&P and Nasdaq reached highs not seen since April 2022. In contrast, other markets were far more muted, with Treasuries and FX trading in well-known ranges ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting and tomorrow’s inflation data. Another notable example was the decline in the price of oil, with WTI falling more than 4% after a Goldman report was released with a much lower forecast for oil prices over the coming few months as supply appears to be outpacing demand despite production restrictions.
FED AND DATA IN FOCUS



Before important inflation data is released in the US tonight, investors anticipate rather quiet trading conditions today. The CPI statistic is anticipated to reflect a decreasing rise in inflation, with the monthly increase predicted to be 0.2% rather than 0.4%, down from 4.9% y/y in April to 4.1% in May. Given the sharp swing in US equity markets overnight, traders are understandably apprehensive that a topside surprise in these statistics tonight might have a significant impact on Fed policy. As of right now, the market is pricing in a 77% likelihood that the FOMC won’t change interest rates on Wednesday, but if tonight’s report reveals that US inflation is still very much alive and well, then expect those odds to drop considerably.

WHAT HAPPENED IN THE ASIA SESSION?

The 16.9% decline in visitor arrivals to New Zealand, which exceeded the prior 1.0% decline, may have weakened the NZD because of the decline in foreign inflow.

The Australian Dollar, on the other hand, has conflicting possibilities; a surprising 0.2% increase in Westpac Consumer Sentiment may boost the AUD, but a dismal -4 in NAB Business Confidence may lower its value.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
GBPUSD
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A cautious upward turn in price movement is indicated by the weak positive momentum and low confidence now visible on the GBP/USD chart.

A bullish extension towards the first resistance level at 1.2575 is possible. This resistance level is important since it denotes a resistance overlap zone.

On the downside, it’s crucial to keep an eye on the initial support level at 1.2498. It provides potential price support and is at a 50% Fibonacci retracement level. Another region of support is the second support level at 1.2448, which also serves as a 38.20% Fibonacci retracement and an overlap support level.

TRADE SUGGESTION: BUY AT 1.25616, TP AT 1.26252, SL AT 1.25108



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Fundamental Analysis Report With Charting Trends - 14 June 2023

AFTER WEAKER CPI, MARKETS RISE – S&P UP 0.7%.

The market’s anticipated release of the week’s major economic data last night indicated that the Fed will likely pause today. Equity markets once again reacted strongly when the US CPI data came in slightly below expectations for both the monthly and yearly comparative readings. The Dow lagged once more, rising only 0.43% on the day, while the S&P and Nasdaq both reached new yearly highs, rising 0.69% and 0.83%, respectively. Even so, there were notable outliers, with the USDJPY rising by almost 1% on the day and US treasury rates returning to a somewhat better bid at the day’s close as the fixed income market became more cautious ahead of the Fed statement later today.

THE DAY AHEAD OF THE FED

In the upcoming trading sessions, the Fed won’t be the only topic of discussion, but let’s be honest, it will be! There aren’t many events scheduled for the Asian markets today, so they will likely continue the day’s strong momentum from the US. However, don’t be shocked if you see some profit-taking in all sessions before the major risk event. On the European Open, attention will once more be on the UK. After stronger job numbers yesterday, there were some significant changes, and today, the most recent GDP data will be announced; an m/m reading of +0.2% is anticipated. Before the FOMC announcement, we still must wait for the latest PPI data from the US session, which is expected to show a 0.2% gain for the Core PPI number and a 0.1% decrease for the PPI.

WHAT HAPPENED IN THE ASIA SESSION?

Recent figures on the New Zealand economy point to an improved scenario. The current account deficit decreased from -10.07 billion NZD to -5.22 billion NZD, outperforming the predicted -6.95 billion NZD performance and perhaps strengthening the NZD. The Food Price Index increased by 0.3%, which is less than the previous 0.5% increase and suggests that inflationary pressure is still present. This could lead to central bank initiatives that could affect the NZD. As a result, these numbers show that the NZD’s future is uncertain.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
GBPUSD
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The bullish momentum on the GBP/USD chart at the moment suggests that the market is currently moving upward.

The price could move upward towards the first resistance level at 1.2676 after a bullish bounce off the first support level at 1.2588.

As overlap supports, the first and second support levels at 1.2588 and 1.2543, respectively, are noted for their importance in generating prospective buyer interest.

On the upside, the overlap resistance at the initial resistance level of 1.2676 may serve as a barrier to price movements in the direction of upward.

A probable area of resistance is further supported by the fact that an intermediate resistance level at 1.2651 exhibits Fibonacci confluence with a -27% Fibonacci Expansion and the 78.60% Fibonacci Projection.

TRADE SUGGESTION: BUY AT 1.26107, TP AT 1.26532, SL AT 1.25831

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Fundamental Analysis Report With Charting Trends - 16 June 2023

CENTRAL BANKS DRIVE MARKET SURGE – DOW CLIMBS 1.25%.

INTRODUCTION

In an eventful trading day, global indices are set to soar, igniting a wave of optimism among investors. The European Central Bank’s anticipated rate hike has propelled the single currency to levels unseen in over a month, making it the focal point of a bustling day in the financial calendar. Following the Federal Reserve’s decision to pause, stock enthusiasts flocked to the US markets during its first full session, with the Dow leading the way, surging by 1.26%. The S&P and Nasdaq closely followed suit, ending the day up 1.22% and 1.15%, respectively. With mounting positivity, the dollar experienced a notable dip of nearly 0.8%, while gold embarked on a robust rally after initially hitting multi-month lows.

BANK OF JAPAN AND UPCOMING DATA

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is scheduled to reveal its latest rate update, accompanied by the customary statement and press conference, further intensifying an already action-packed week on the economic front. Given the considerable volatility witnessed this week, traders are bracing themselves for more sharp movements in the yen surrounding this event. The European session is expected to be relatively calm, but as the US session commences, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment data and Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller’s announcements are bound to generate additional market activity.

US SESSION HIGHLIGHTS

1. U.S. Core Retail Sales experienced a slight decline of 0.1%, in contrast to the previous 0.4%.
2. The Empire State Manufacturing Index, soaring from -31.8 to 6.6, surpassed projections and indicated a robust resurgence in manufacturing.
3. US retail sales showed a modest gain of 0.3%, surpassing expectations of a 0.2% decline.
4. The number of unemployment claims in the US remained steady at 262K, suggesting a stable job market, albeit without rapid improvement.

IMPLICATIONS FOR THE ASIAN SESSION

As the Bank of Japan prepares to announce its monetary policy decisions, the USD/JPY pair hovers just above the 140.00 mark. A hawkish outcome would likely push the pair down to 139.30 before reaching 139.00. Conversely, a climb to 141.00, followed by a retest of the recent intra-day highs around 141.50, is conceivable for the Dollar Yen.

THE JAPANESE YEN (JPY)
KEY NEWS EVENTS TODAY

1. Monetary Policy Statement
2. BOJ Policy Rate
3. BOJ Press Conference

GBPUSD: BEARISH MOMENTUM SUGGESTS A NEGATIVE MARKET TREND
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INTRODUCTION

In the world of forex trading, the GBP/USD chart has recently been showing strong bearish momentum, indicating a market trend moving in the negative direction. Traders and investors need to pay close attention to the current market conditions.

RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS

1. Resistance Level 1: 1.2685

1. A potential bearish reaction may occur at this level, possibly leading to a subsequent slide toward the first support level.

1. Support Level 1: 1.26952

1. This level holds significance as pullback support, attracting buyers and offering market stabilization.

1. Resistance Level 2: 1.28467

1. The presence of the 61.80% Fibonacci Projection further emphasizes this level’s relevance as a potential resistance region.

TRADE SUGGESTION
For traders considering a position in GBP/USD, a sell trade can be considered with the following parameters:

 

1. Entry Point: 1.27865
2. Take Profit: 1.27358
3. Stop Loss: 1.28142

By following this trade suggestion, traders can potentially capitalize on the current bearish momentum in the market.

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Fundamental Analysis Report With Charting Trends - 22 June 2023

Central Bank Decisions And Testimony Drive Market Volatility

Introduction


In the wake of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony before the House Financial Services Committee, the US markets experienced a wave of uncertainty. The reaction to Powell’s comments was mixed, with stock markets bearing the brunt of his aggressive stance, while currency markets perceived him as insufficiently hawkish, resulting in a decline in the US dollar. This article examines the repercussions of Powell’s testimony and explores the expected market volatility in the coming days.

Markets React To Powell’s Testimony

Nasdaq Bears The Brunt Of Powell’s Comments
Powell’s testimony left a significant impact on the stock markets, with all major US indices closing in the red for the third consecutive day. Among them, the Nasdaq suffered the most, experiencing a daily decline of 1.21%. The decline was further exacerbated by a 5.5% drop in Tesla’s stock price. Meanwhile, the S&P and the Dow also experienced losses, with their values decreasing by 0.3% on the day.

Currency Markets React Differently

Contrasting with the stock markets’ response, currency markets had a different take on Powell’s testimony. The Euro surged to new monthly highs, marking a 0.63% increase for the day. In contrast, the US dollar index plummeted by 0.43%. This discrepancy highlights the divergent reactions from investors and emphasizes the complex dynamics of the financial markets.

Anticipating Further Volatility

Factors Contributing To Market Volatility
The financial markets are bracing for another tumultuous day as investors face crucial central bank decisions, the release of tier 1 data, and additional testimony from Powell. The Asian market started off weakly following a disappointing day on Wall Street. With the absence of significant events on the calendar, the outlook for the Asian market remains pessimistic. However, once the European period begins, the situation may change, driven by significant rate calls from the Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank. The US session is also expected to witness heightened volatility, as the weekly unemployment report and Powell’s hearing before the Senate Banking Committee come into play.

GBPUSD: Strong Movement and Key Levels

Introduction

In the foreign exchange market, the GBP/USD instrument is currently displaying a robust overall movement, indicating significant price action. Traders are observing the possibility of a brief decline followed by a bounce toward the first resistance level. The support and resistance levels play a crucial role in determining the potential trading opportunities for market participants.

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Analyzing Support Levels



First Support Level: Overlap Support And Fibonacci Retracements
The initial support level at 1.2681 holds great importance due to its combination of overlap support, a 38.20% Fibonacci retracement, and a 50% Fibonacci retracement. This confluence of technical indicators adds to the level’s significance and trustworthiness. Additionally, the second support level at 1.2536 provides strong overlap support, reinforcing its relevance in the market.

Evaluating Resistance Levels

First Resistance Level: Swing High Resistance

On the upside, the first resistance level at 1.2823 acts as a significant barrier for the price. Instead of breaking past this level, it is more likely for the price to experience rejection near it. Traders should closely monitor the price action around this resistance level to identify potential trading opportunities.

Trade Suggestion For GBPUSD

Considering the technical analysis, a trade suggestion for GBP/USD is as follows:

 

1. SELL at 1.2751
2. Take Profit (TP) at 1.2786
3. Stop Loss (SL) at 1.2730

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Fundamental Analysis Report With Charting Trends - 23 June 2023

US Markets Display Mixed Sentiment Amid Debt Ceiling Crisis.

Introduction

In anticipation of new information regarding the debt ceiling crisis, the US markets experienced a mixed day yesterday. The Nasdaq saw a 0.5% increase, the S&P rose by 0.02%, and the Dow closed with a 0.42% gain. Despite the market’s closure, Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy of the Republicans expressed confidence in ongoing negotiations, stating they are “on the right path.” However, he offered a few specific details to appease investors. Meanwhile, as Fed policymakers leaned towards a more hawkish stance, the dollar remained near recent highs, and short-term government rates maintained their strong position.


The First Data Wave Hits The Markets

The US markets failed to generate much excitement among traders as they sent conflicting signals, adding to the anticipation of a potentially hectic trading week. Today, we can expect to be inundated with several PMI statistics for both manufacturing and services, which will shape market sentiment. The European market will receive data from France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the Eurozone during the first few hours of trading. After the opening of trade in New York, the US Flash PMI numbers will be released. However, as the day progresses, the focus is likely to shift toward the US debt discussions, significantly impacting public opinion.

INSIGHTS FROM THE ASIAN SESSION

During the Asian session, Australia’s Manufacturing PMI matched expectations at 48.0. However, the Services PMI missed forecasts, declining from 53.7 to 51.8 compared to the previous reading of 53.7. The JPY Manufacturing PMI reached 50.8, surpassing expectations. Additionally, the Core CPI y/y for the Bank of Japan rose to 3.0%, exceeding both the expected value of 2.8% and the previous recording of 2.9%. These findings indicate the weakness of the Australian dollar and the strength of the Japanese yen.

Implications For The European & US Sessions

If the PMIs from Europe, the UK, and the US turn out to be significantly worse than anticipated, the Euro and the Cable may trade within a range prior to the release of corresponding manufacturing and services data. The ongoing uncertainty surrounding the US debt ceiling negotiations is likely to prevent any decline in the EUR or GBP caused by the data.

GBPUSD: Possibility of Additional Higher Movement

Introduction

In the realm of currency trading, the GBP/USD chart is currently displaying an intriguing pattern. The price of this currency pair is positioned above a significant ascending trend line as well as the bullish Ichi Moku cloud. Such a configuration indicates the potential for additional upward movement, catching the attention of traders.

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Factors Pointing Towards A Bullish Bounce

Several factors contribute to the likelihood of a bullish bounce off the initial support level at 1.2698. Firstly, there is a Fibonacci confluence, which denotes the convergence of various Fibonacci levels. This confluence is further supported by overlap support, a 38.20% Fibonacci Retracement, and a 50% Fibonacci Retracement. Collectively, these elements present a strong case for a bullish scenario.


Journey Towards The First Barrier

Traders anticipate a possible surge in price towards the first barrier at 1.2726. This particular level holds significance as it is characterized by a multi-swing high resistance. When combined with the aforementioned circumstances, the presence of this barrier strengthens the overall outlook for a bullish trend.

Trade Suggestion

Based on the analysis and observations made, a prudent trade suggestion for traders would be to consider buying at 1.2703. Establishing a take-profit level at 1.2725 and setting a stop-loss order at 1.2689 would be advisable in order to manage potential risks effectively.

EURUSD: Potential for Upward Growth

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Fundamental Analysis Report With Charting Trends - 07 July 2023

Wall Street Faces Losses Amid Labor Market Strength and Rate-Hike Concerns.
Introduction


In a recent turn of events, Wall Street has witnessed a significant decline as concerns about a potential interest rate hike intensified. The strong performance of the labor market has led to an increase in bond yields, fueling these apprehensions. This article delves into the details of the market downturn and sheds light on the implications of the robust labor market for the economy.

Wall Street’s Sharp Decline

Labor Market Strength Amplifies Worries
The major indexes of Wall Street experienced a widespread sell-off on Thursday. This decline can be attributed to data that unveiled a robust labor market, surpassing expectations. The surge in private payrolls during June indicated a stable job market amid looming recession concerns. However, this positive report also amplified fears of an imminent interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve.

Historical Declines In The S&P 500 And Dow

The repercussions of this data were evident as the S&P 500 registered its largest daily percentage decline since May 23. Similarly, the Dow faced its most substantial daily decline since May 2. These downward trends indicate the market’s response to the anticipation of monetary policy adjustments by the Federal Reserve.

Implications Of Labor Market Strength

Stability Amid Recession Threats

Despite concerns about a potential recession, the labor market has remained remarkably stable. The unexpectedly high growth in private payrolls during June has provided reassurance. It is worth noting that while there were fewer job postings in May, they were still at a relatively high level. These observations suggest that the job market continues to hold its ground amidst the prevailing economic uncertainties.

The Federal Reserve’s Dilemma

At its June policy meeting, the Federal Reserve opted not to raise interest rates. However, there is an expectation that the interest rates will be revised during their July meeting. The case for a rate hike was presented by Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, signaling a potential shift in monetary policy. The market’s reaction to this prospect was reflected in the increased bond yields and the subsequent sell-off.

GBPUSD: Bullish Momentum Remains Strong

Introduction

In the current market scenario, the GBP/USD chart demonstrates a bullish momentum, with the price positioned above a significant ascending trend line. Additionally, the ascending trend line acts as a strong support level, further confirming the positive outlook.

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Ascending Trend Line Provides Support



Support Level 1: 1.2682
The first support level at 1.2682 serves as pullback support, indicating a potential recovery in the near term. Traders and investors should closely monitor this level as it may offer a favorable buying opportunity.

Support Level 2: 1.2605
Located at 1.2605, the second support level coincides with a 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement. This convergence of support levels enhances its significance and reinforces its role as a strong support zone.

Resistance Levels Indicate Potential Barriers

Resistance Level 1: 1.2750
The first resistance level at 1.2750 is challenged by a 78.60% Fibonacci retracement on the upside. This level presents a hurdle for the price to overcome and may slow down the bullish momentum temporarily.

Resistance Level 2: 1.2847
Positioned at 1.2847, the second resistance level is characterized by high resistance with multiple swings. It represents a formidable barrier to the price and should be closely monitored by market participants.

Trade Suggestion

For traders considering potential trades in the GBP/USD market, a compelling suggestion is to initiate a buy position at 1.2745, with a take profit (TP) level set at 1.2819. To manage risk, a stop loss (SL) order can be placed at 1.2690.

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Fundamental Analysis Report With Charting Trends - 13 July 2023

Investor Sentiment Soars as Nasdaq Records Over 1% Gain on Inflationary Pressures Easing.

Introduction

In a positive turn of events, the Nasdaq led Wall Street to a higher close as a recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) report indicated a decline in inflation, providing a boost to investor sentiment. This article provides an overview of the market update, highlights key statistics, and discusses the implications for different trading sessions.


Nasdaq’s Rise And CPI Report
Consumer Prices Show Smallest Annual Increase
A recent study has revealed that consumer prices experienced their smallest annual increase in over two years, signaling a decline in inflationary pressures. This news instilled confidence among investors, leading to a surge in U.S. stocks on Wednesday.

Nasdaq Takes The Lead
The Nasdaq emerged as the frontrunner, registering a gain of over 1% during the trading session. This rise in Nasdaq was primarily driven by shares of large tech-related businesses, which are known to be sensitive to changes in interest rates. The Technology sector saw a notable increase of 1.3%.

Impact On Interest Rates
The statistics confirmed the predictions that the Federal Reserve might decide to leave interest rates unchanged. Earlier expectations suggested a 25 basis point increase at the upcoming decision meeting in July.

GBP/USD: Bullish Momentum Signals Potential Rise
The GBP/USD pair is currently displaying signs of bullish momentum, indicating a possible upward movement. However, there is a possibility of a bearish reaction near the first resistance level, which could result in a decline toward the first support level.

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First Support Level: 1.3003
The first support level at 1.3003 serves as pullback support and offers potential price stability. Traders should watch this level closely as it may act as a support and prevent further decline.

Second Support Level: 1.2938
Situated at 1.2938, the second support level is an overlap support that could potentially avert a deeper decline. Traders should monitor this level as it holds importance in supporting the price.

First Resistance Level: 1.3061
On the upside, if the price rises, it may encounter resistance at the first level, which is at 1.3061. This pullback resistance level is reinforced by a Fibonacci confluence, combining a 78.60% Fibonacci projection and a 161.80% Fibonacci extension.

Second Resistance Level: 1.3146
The second resistance level at 1.3146 is considered a swing-high resistance. If the market surpasses this level, it might pose a significant barrier to further price gains.

TRADE SUGGESTION:

1. Entry: Buy at 1.3061
2. Take Profit: 1.3146
3. Stop Loss: 1.2993

EUR/USD: Positive Trajectory Points To Potential Rise

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Weekly Technical Analysis & Price Market Strategy- 15 July 2023

CPI Report, Retail Sales, and Employment Change: Key Events to Impact Global Markets.

Welcome to our comprehensive market report for the upcoming week. In this analysis, we will provide you with valuable insights and expert analysis of the key events that will shape the global financial landscape. Our aim is to equip you with the knowledge necessary to make informed decisions and navigate the dynamic world of finance successfully.


The coming week presents a plethora of significant economic indicators and corporate announcements that will have a profound impact on various markets. We will closely examine the outcomes of these events to provide you with a clear understanding of their implications. Our team of experts has conducted meticulous research to ensure that you receive accurate and timely information.

Let’s delve into the highlights:

On July 19, 2023, the highly anticipated Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the United Kingdom will be released. This crucial economic indicator measures the change in prices of goods and services in a basket of consumer items. The outcomes of this report have far-reaching implications for the British pound (GBP) and its associated currency pairs. By carefully analyzing the CPI data, we can discern potential bullish or bearish trends in the GBP.

Scheduled for July 18, 2023, the Retail Sales report for the United States will provide a comprehensive overview of consumer spending, a critical driver of economic activity. By examining the change in the aggregate value of sales at the retail level across the country, we can gain valuable insights into the health of the U.S. economy. The results of this report will exert a significant impact on the U.S. dollar (USD) and its related pairs, guiding trading decisions.
Top Commodities in the Coming Week

GOLD
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GOLD is currently trading in an upward channel, indicating that an upside movement may be expected in the coming days.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 57.2, which is in the bullish zone. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is also in the bullish zone, with the MACD line and the signal line crossing each other. The Bollinger Bands are currently at $1,864.27, which is in the neutral zone.

On the daily chart, gold is trading just above the 200-day moving average, which could provide support in case of a market decline. However, a break below the 200-day moving average could lead to a more significant sell-off.

Here are some key levels to watch in the near term:

 

1. Support: $1,962.04
2. Resistance: $1,954.72

Trade Suggestion: BUY at $1,964.23, Take Profit at $1,989.75, Stop Loss at $1,941.62

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Fundamental Analysis Report With Charting Trends - 17 July 2023

S&P 500 Sees Strong Weekly Gains Despite Banking Sector Woes.

Introduction

In this market update, we’ll take a look at the recent performance of the S&P 500, the impact of banks on the index, and the happenings in the Asia session. Additionally, we’ll discuss the implications for the Europe & US session, focusing on crude oil prices and the Euro. Finally, we’ll examine the current state of the Australian Dollar and the outlook for oil. Let’s dive in!

S&P 500 Weekly Performance

Despite a slight decline on Friday, all three major U.S. stock indexes, including the S&P 500, posted significant weekly gains. While banks and financial equities were primarily lower on the day due to quarterly reports, the overall market showed strength. UnitedHealth Group’s stock rise helped offset some of the dips, following its stronger-than-expected earnings. However, the S&P 500 banking index experienced a 0.9% loss. JPMorgan Chase shares increased by 0.6%, while Wells Fargo saw a decrease of 0.3%. Despite higher quarterly earnings, the big banks expressed the need to increase their reserves for potential losses on commercial real estate loans. The most negatively affected sectors on the benchmark index were energy, down 2.8%, and financials, down 0.7%.

Asia Session Highlights

During the Asia session, China released several important statistics, including GDP results, industrial production, and the unemployment rate. While the annual growth rate of the GDP was 6.3% YoY, slightly lower than the predicted 7.3%, the quarterly growth rate of 0.8% exceeded expectations of 0.5%. Industrial production expanded by 4.4% YoY, surpassing the estimated 2.7%. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.2%. Overall, the readings were stronger than the corresponding forecasts.

GBPUSD Technical Analysis and Trade Suggestions

Introduction

In this section, we will analyze the technical indicators and trade suggestions for GBPUSD (British Pound against the US Dollar) in the foreign exchange market. By examining various moving averages, oscillators, and support/resistance levels, we aim to provide valuable insights for traders.

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Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

1. EMA 5: Buy Sentiment The 5-day EMA for GBPUSD stands at 1.3088, suggesting a buying sentiment.
2. EMA 20: Buy Indication The 20-day EMA displays a value of 1.2976, reinforcing a buy indication.
3. EMA 50: Buy Recommendation With a value of 1.2845, the 50-day EMA aligns with a buy recommendation.

Simple Moving Average (SMA)

1. SMA 5: Sell Sentiment The 5-day SMA shows a value of 1.3101, indicating a selling sentiment.
2. SMA 20: Buy Stance The 20-day SMA records 1.2954, supporting a buy stance.
3. SMA 50: Buy Indication The 50-day SMA stands at 1.2798, signifying a buy indication.

RSI (Relative Strength Index)
The RSI, calculated over a 14-day period, displays a reading of 73.75, suggesting a buy signal.

Stochastic Oscillator
The %K value of the Stochastic Oscillator suggests a neutral condition.

Resistance And Support Levels

1. Resistance: 1.3106
2. Support: 1.3078

Summary And Trade Suggestions
Based on the technical analysis, GBPUSD presents a buy outlook. Traders may consider entering a long position, considering the indicators, moving averages, and oscillators.

Trade Suggestion:

 

1. Entry Point: 1.3132
2. Take Profit: 1.3162
3. Stop Loss: 1.3110

EURUSD Technical Analysis and Trade Suggestions

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Fundamental Analysis Report With Charting Trends - 18 July 2023

Tesla and Netflix Earnings Awaited as Wall Street Records Upward Momentum.

Introduction

In the latest market update, U.S. stocks closed higher on Monday as investors eagerly awaited the upcoming batch of quarterly results during the earnings season. Financial and technology firms played a significant role in driving the positive momentum. This news article will delve into the market update, providing insights into the earnings season and highlighting key events from the Asia session. Additionally, it will explore the implications for the Europe and U.S. sessions, focusing on the Dollar Index (DXY), the Australian Dollar (AUD), and the Kiwi Dollar (NZD). Let’s dive in!
Wall Street Performance




Wall Street witnessed a positive trading week, with U.S. stocks ending higher on Monday. The upward trajectory was propelled by advancements in financial and technology companies. Notable companies, such as Tesla (TSLA.O) and Netflix (NFLX.O), are scheduled to report their earnings this week. Moreover, renowned banking institutions including Bank of America (BAC.N), Morgan Stanley (MS.N), and Goldman Sachs (GS.N) are also expected to release their earnings reports following last week’s reports from competitors like JP Morgan (JPM.N) and Citigroup (C.N). The market is keenly observing the business outlooks of these companies, considering the anticipated 8.1% decrease in earnings for the quarter, as revealed by Refinitiv data. This projection represents a slight deviation from the initial 5.7% reduction forecasted earlier this month.

Asia Session Highlights

During the Asia session, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) publicly disclosed the minutes of its July 4 monetary policy meeting. The board exhibited a hawkish tone, indicating its readiness to lower inflation. Despite a decline in domestic inflation, the labor market remains remarkably tight, and service inflation continues to be robust. Consequently, the Australian dollar experienced an increase, reaching 0.6840 upon the release of the minutes.

Implications For Europe & U.S. Sessions

Given the limited economic data releases expected during the Europe session, the afternoon could be relatively calm, with most currency pairs trading within a narrow range. Notably, the markets may experience potential shocks from significant events scheduled later in the day, including Canadian inflation data, U.S. retail sales, and industrial output statistics.

GBPUSD: Technical Analysis Points Towards a Buy Outlook


Introduction

This news we analyzes the technical indicators for GBP/USD (British Pound/U.S. Dollar) and provides trade suggestions based on the findings. By examining various moving averages, oscillators, and support/resistance levels, traders can gain valuable insights into market trends and make informed decisions.

https://www.trade2win.com/proxy.php?...89877f8525a45e
Exponential Moving Average

 

1. EMA 5: The 5-day EMA stands at 1.3083, indicating a Buy sentiment.
2. EMA 20: The 20-day EMA displays 1.3002, reinforcing a Buy indication.
3. EMA 50: With a value of 1.2871, the 50-day EMA aligns with a Buy recommendation.

Simple Moving Average

1. SMA 5: The 5-day SMA shows 1.3079, indicating a Sell sentiment.
2. SMA 20: The 20-day SMA records 1.2998, supporting a Buy stance.
3. SMA 50: The 50-day SMA stands at 1.2822, signifying a Buy indication.

RSI (Relative Strength Index)
The RSI, calculated over a 14-day period, displays a reading of 68.94, suggesting a Buy signal.

Stochastic Oscillator
The %K value of the Stochastic Oscillator suggests a neutral condition.

Resistance And Support Levels

1. Resistance: The resistance level is identified at 1.3086.
2. Support: The support level is observed at 1.3051.

Summary And Trade Suggestions
Based on the technical analysis, GBP/USD presents a Buy outlook. Traders may consider entering a long position, considering the indicators, moving averages, and oscillators.

Trade Suggestion:

1. Entry Point: 1.3133
2. Take Profit: 1.3184
3. Stop Loss: 1.3091

EURUSD: Technical Analysis Points Towards A Strong Buy Sentiment
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Fundamental Analysis Report With Charting Trends - 24 July 2023

US Markets Await Federal Reserve Statement Amidst Lackluster Day.

A Brief Break Before A Pivotal Week


Last Friday, the US markets took a breather as investors prepared for a week filled with significant events, most notably the latest statement from the Federal Reserve. The Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq all had a lackluster day, with the Dow and S&P ending nearly flat and the Nasdaq falling 0.22%. While the dollar continued to rise slowly, US treasuries saw only a marginal increase, and currencies remained within their established ranges. However, oil prices surged again, with WTI and Brent each rising by 1.8%. Meanwhile, gold experienced a dip, closing at around $1,960 per ounce.


Central Banks To Drive Market Momentum

Investors are gearing up for updates from three major central banks this week, and though few expect any shocks regarding actual interest rate shifts, many anticipate volatility leading up to these events as the banks provide crucial forward guidance. At the forefront is the Federal Reserve, where the odds of a 25bps rate increase stand at 99.8%. The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its ultra-low-rate environment, and the European Central Bank is also predicted to deliver a 25bps increase. Traders in the foreign exchange market are ready to capitalize on future interest rate differentials.

Asia Session: Key Levels And Potential Impact

Resistance Challenges Dollar Index (DXY)
The dollar index (DXY) currently faces a significant resistance level at 101.10, leading to a temporary dip below 101 during the Asia session due to selling pressures on the US dollar. Trading volume and activity have been relatively low during this period, but as European markets come online and overall volume increases, we might see a shift in dynamics.

Europe & US Session Expectations
Given the lackluster trading activity thus far, markets may receive a slight boost from the impending flash Composite PMI figures from Europe. Additionally, the US dollar might witness profit-taking after significant gains last week, potentially leading to a drop below 101 for the DXY.

GBPUSD
https://www.trade2win.com/proxy.php?...c5f1782fa83d9f
Exponential Moving Average



EMA 5: A Strong Sell Signal
The 5-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) stands at 1.2861, suggesting a strong Sell sentiment in the GBPUSD currency pair.

EMA 20: Reinforcing The Sell Indication

The 20-day EMA displays a value of 1.2922, reinforcing the Sell indication for GBPUSD.

EMA 50: Aligned With A Sell Recommendation
The 50-day EMA aligns with a Sell recommendation as it stands at 1.2881 in the GBPUSD forex pair.

Simple Moving Average

SMA 5: Indicating A Sell Sentiment
The 5-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) shows 1.2855, indicating a Sell sentiment for GBPUSD.

SMA 20: Supporting The Sell Stance
The 20-day SMA records 1.2979, supporting the Sell stance for the GBPUSD currency pair.

SMA 50: Signifying A Sell Indication
With a value of 1.2873, the 50-day SMA signifies a Sell indication in GBPUSD.

RSI (Relative Strength Index)

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) calculated over a 14-day period displays a reading of 39.39, suggesting a Sell signal in the GBPUSD forex pair.

Stochastic Oscillator
The %K value of the Stochastic Oscillator suggests a Neutral condition for GBPUSD.

Resistance And Support Levels
Resistance: 1.2897
The resistance level for GBPUSD is identified at 1.2897, indicating a potential barrier for upward movement.

Support: 1.2839
The support level for GBPUSD is observed at 1.2839, acting as a potential level of price support.

Summary And Trade Suggestions

Based on the technical analysis, GBP/USD presents a Sell outlook. Traders may consider entering a short position, considering the indicators, moving averages, and oscillators.

Trade Suggestion:

• Entry Point: 1.2806 • Take Profit: 1.2738 • Stop Loss: 1.2864

EURUSD
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Fundamental Analysis Report With Charting Trends - 02 August 2023

Fitch Downgrades US Credit Rating: What Does This Mean for Investors?

Introduction


In a move that has sent shockwaves across the financial world, rating agency Fitch has downgraded the United States from AAA to AA+, causing a ripple effect in global markets. This downgrade, while not entirely unexpected, has put traders on edge and has already had significant implications on Asian markets. In this article, we’ll delve into the details of Fitch’s decision and its impact on different financial assets and regions. We’ll also explore the outlook for the upcoming sessions and discuss how central banks and key economic indicators might influence market sentiment.


Fitch Downgrades The US: Initial Market Reactions

As the New York market closed, the news of Fitch’s downgrade hit Asian markets hard, with opening rates in the negative territory. While the reaction has been relatively restrained so far, the downward trend in interest rates and stock futures, coupled with increased flows towards safe-haven currencies, suggests that further declines may be on the horizon once the Asian market resumes trading. Despite the Fitch report, US indices experienced a minor reprieve on the first trading day of the month, with the Dow up by 0.2%, the S&P down by 0.27%, and the Nasdaq down by 0.43%.

APAC Trading And Safe-Haven Assets

In the wake of the Fitch downgrade, the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF) experienced increased buying in the foreign exchange market. On the other hand, the Australian dollar fell against the US dollar and other major currencies following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to hold interest rates steady earlier in the day. Interestingly, safe-haven assets like gold saw a rise in prices, trading 0.6% higher than the previous day’s low, as investors sought refuge amidst the uncertainty.

Market Volatility And Key Data Releases

As the market braces for a potentially tumultuous period, it’s essential to keep an eye on key economic indicators and central bank actions. Before the highly-anticipated job numbers report later in the week, markets are expected to remain volatile. The Asian session, followed by the European session, is relatively calm in terms of macroeconomic data, but once the US session begins, things might become more intriguing. Investors will closely monitor Wall Street’s response to the Fitch downgrade, as well as critical data releases, such as the US Crude Oil Inventory numbers and the ADP Non-Farm Employment data.

GBPUSD
https://www.trade2win.com/proxy.php?...d6ad22680596ea
Exponential Moving Average

 

1. EMA 5: The 5-day EMA stands at 1.2799, suggesting a Sell sentiment.
2. EMA 20: The 20-day EMA displays 1.2836, reinforcing a Sell indication.
3. EMA 50: With a value of 1.2855, the 50-day EMA aligns with a Sell recommendation.

Simple Moving Average

1. SMA 5: The 5-day SMA shows 1.2785, indicating a Sell sentiment.
2. SMA 20: The 20-day SMA records 1.2844, supporting a Sell stance.
3. SMA 50: The 50-day SMA stands at 1.2922, signifying a Sell indication.

RSI (RELATIVE STRENGTH INDEX)
The RSI, calculated over a 14-day period, displays a reading of 40.10, suggesting a Neutral signal.

Stochastic Oscillator
The %K value of the Stochastic Oscillator suggests a Neutral condition.

Resistance And Support Levels

1. Resistance: The resistance level is identified at 1.2803.
2. Support: The support level is observed at 1.2745.

Summary And Trade Suggestions

Based on the technical analysis, GBP/USD presents a Sell outlook. Traders may consider entering a short position, considering the indicators, moving averages, and oscillators.

TRADE SUGGESTION:

1. Entry Point: 1.2707
2. Take Profit: 1.2629
3. Stop Loss: 1.2766

EURUSD
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Daily FX Analysis - GBP/USD drops, EUR/USD navigates, NZD/USD strengthens, USD/CHF soars.

Introduction
GBP/USD faces pressure, dropping towards 1.2650 after disappointing UK Retail Sales data. The pair grapples with a resurgent US Dollar and cautious market sentiment, awaiting crucial US data and Federal Reserve speeches. Meanwhile, EUR/USD remains stable below 1.0900, monitoring ECB President Lagarde’s speech. NZD/USD gains strength above 0.6100, while USD/CHF rises to nearly 0.8680 on SNB Chairman’s concerns about the appreciating Swiss Franc. Market dynamics continue to evolve as traders brace for upcoming economic indicators and central bank communications.
Markets In Focus Today – GBP/USD
GBP/USD Drops Toward 1.2650 After UK Retail Sales Data.
GBP/USD is dropping toward 1.2650, under intense selling pressure after the UK Retail Sales dropped more than expected in December. The pair is also feeling the heat from a pause in the US Dollar decline, as sentiment remains tepid ahead of top-tier US data, Fedspeak. GBP/USD reversed its direction after dipping below 1.2700 and closed in positive territory above 1.2750 on Thursday. The positive shift seen in risk mood supports the pair on Friday as markets await Producer Price Index (PPI) data from the US. Inflation figures provided a boost to the US Dollar (USD) with the initial reaction but they seemingly failed to persuade markets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could refrain from lowering the policy rate in March.
Technical Overview With Chart :
https://www.capitalstreetfx.com/en/w...D-1024x343.png
Moving Averages :
Exponential :

1. MA 10 : 1.27 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
2. MA 20 : 1.27 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
3. MA 50 : 1.26 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

1. MA 10 : 1.27 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
2. MA 20 : 1.27 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
3. MA 50 : 1.26 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 49.84 | Neutral Zone | Neutral
Stochastic Oscillator : 47.09 | Neutral Zone | Neutral
Resistance And Support Levels :

1. R1 : 1.28 R2 : 1.29
2. S1 : 1.26 S2 : 1.25

Overall Sentiment: Neutral Market Direction: Buy
Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 1.2655 | Take Profit: 1.2754 | Stop Loss: 1.2595
EUR/USD

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Daily Free Fundamental And Technical Analysis By Capital Street FX.


Introduction

GBP/USD remains steady above 1.2600, propelled by favorable UK labor market data, including a drop in the ILO Unemployment Rate to 3.8%. While the market maintains an optimistic stance, attention shifts to the US inflation report, anticipating potential impacts on the Federal Reserve’s decisions. Meanwhile, EUR/USD faces a bearish outlook, hovering below key levels, with a focus on US CPI data. USD/CAD breaks a five-day decline on market caution ahead of US inflation data, and NZD/USD declines on lower Kiwi Inflation Expectations in Q1.

Markets In Focus Today – GBP/USD

GBP/USD Holds Comfortably Above 1.2600 After UK Labor Market Data.

GBP/USD edges higher toward 1.2650 in the European morning on Tuesday. The data from the UK showed that the ILO Unemployment Rate declined to 3.8% in December, while the annual wage inflation softened to 6.2% from 6.7%. An upbeat market mood is sponsoring a leg-up on the major, though it remains within familiar levels. Market participants are eyeing an inflation report in the United States (US) which is expected to fuel speculations for rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Regarding monetary policy, the BoE is expected to slash rates by 80 basis points through 2024, less than the 110 bps at the beginning of the last week.

Technical Overview With Chart :
https://www.trade2win.com/proxy.php?...1ce674ccc63473


Moving Averages :
Exponential :

1. MA 10 : 1.2638 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
2. MA 20 : 1.2655 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
3. MA 50 : 1.2638 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

1. MA 10 : 1.2633 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
2. MA 20 : 1.2667 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
3. MA 50 : 1.2674 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 48.2925 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic Oscillator : 44.3336 | Neutral Zone | Positive

Resistance And Support Levels :

1. R1 : 1.2763 R2 : 1.2807
2. S1 : 1.2618 S2 : 1.2574

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy
Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 1.2648 | Take Profit: 1.2719 | Stop Loss: 1.2605

EUR/USD

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Daily FX Analysis - Forex trends, insights, trades.

Introduction

EUR/USD maintains a flat trajectory above 1.0800 amid geopolitical tensions, with the US Dollar finding safe-haven demand. Investor confidence wanes due to China’s tensions with Taiwan. Lagarde’s speech and US data are eagerly awaited. Meanwhile, GBP/USD defends 1.2650 in a risk-off market, eyeing the BoE Chief Economist’s speech. Australian Dollar stabilizes after S&P/ASX 200 losses, while USD faces resistance as US Treasury yields decline. Japanese Yen struggles against the USD, hindered by reduced BoJ policy shift bets and hawkish Fed expectations.

Markets In Focus Today – EUR/USD

EUR/USD Trades Flatlined Above 1.0800 Ahead Of Lagarde.

EUR/USD trades in a tight range above 1.0800 early Monday. The US Dollar attracts fresh haven demand amid geopolitical tensions-led risk-averse markets—China’s spate with Taiwan and the US sap investors’ confidence. Lagarde’s speech and US data are next in focus. Despite Friday’s indecisive action, EUR/USD closed the previous week in positive territory. The pair continues to inch higher early Monday and the technical outlook suggests that the bullish bias remains intact. The US Dollar (USD) struggles to find demand in the European morning as US Treasury bond yields stretch lower.

Technical Overview With Chart :
https://www.earnforex.com/forum/prox...98d660ea59ae21

Moving Averages :
Exponential :

1. MA 10 : 1.0803 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
2. MA 20 : 1.0807 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
3. MA 50 : 1.0833 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

1. MA 10 : 1.0786 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
2. MA 20 : 1.0788 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
3. MA 50 : 1.0883 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 52.9390 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic Oscillator : 67.0286 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance And Support Levels :

1. R1 : 1.0982 R2 : 1.1041
2. S1 : 1.0790 S2 : 1.0731

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy
Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 1.0836 | Take Profit: 1.0896 | Stop Loss: 1.0799

GBP/USD
GBP/USD Defends 1.2650 Amid Risk-Off Mood, USD Rebound.


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EUR/USD Weakens and GBP/USD Slides. - 13/12/2024

INTRODUCTION
Currency markets remain under pressure as major pairs navigate a challenging environment driven by monetary policy shifts, geopolitical risks, and economic data releases. The US Dollar (USD) continues to strengthen, exerting downward pressure on the Euro (EUR), British Pound (GBP), Japanese Yen (JPY), and Australian Dollar (AUD). Market focus now shifts to upcoming Federal Reserve and central bank meetings, which are expected to set the tone for the currency markets in the weeks ahead.

EUR/USD Remains Fragile Near 1.0460
The EUR/USD pair faces persistent bearish momentum, trading near a three-week low of 1.0455 during Friday’s Asian session. The pair’s decline is fueled by a dovish European Central Bank (ECB) stance and weak Eurozone economic performance. On Thursday, the ECB implemented its fourth rate cut this year, signaling potential further easing in 2025.

In contrast, expectations of a less dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) have supported the US Dollar. Rising US Treasury bond yields, which reached a new monthly high on Thursday, add to the USD’s strength. Geopolitical risks, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and tensions in the Middle East, further bolster the greenback’s safe-haven appeal.

Key Factors Driving EUR/USD:

1. ECB Policy Divergence: ECB’s dovish outlook weighs on the Euro.
2. US Treasury Yields: Higher yields sustain USD momentum.
3. Geopolitical Risks: Safe-haven demand for USD pressures EUR.

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD:
https://www.trade2win.com/proxy.php?...bf8a4f0ad89dbe

 

1. Moving Averages:
   1. Exponential: MA10: 1.0510 | Bearish
   2. Simple: MA10: 1.0516 | Bearish

2. RSI: 37.18 | Sell Zone
3. Stochastic Oscillator: 30.42 | Neutral
4. Resistance Levels: R1: 1.0846 | R2: 1.0988
5. Support Levels: S1: 1.0384 | S2: 1.0242

Trade Suggestion:

 

1. Sell Limit: 1.0529
2. Take Profit: 1.0401
3. Stop Loss: 1.0625

GBP/USD Slides as Traders Await UK GDP Data

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EUR/USD Struggles and GBP/USD Rebounds Amid Central Bank Focus. - 17/12/2024

INTRODUCTION

The currency markets are in focus as major currency pairs react to central bank policies, economic data, and geopolitical developments. Traders are particularly eyeing the Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate decision, which has broader implications for the U.S. Dollar (USD), while developments in Europe, the UK, New Zealand, and Canada add further volatility to the forex market. This article delves into key market movements, technical trends, and trade setups for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD, and USD/CAD.
Markets in Focus: EUR/USD Struggles Below 1.0500



EUR/USD continues to face challenges in gaining momentum, struggling to stay above the critical 1.0500 level. On Monday, the pair showed modest gains but lacked conviction, edging within a narrow range. While European December PMI figures exceeded expectations, the Services PMI remained in contraction, reflecting ongoing economic concerns in Europe.

The market’s primary focus remains on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision scheduled for Wednesday. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets have priced in a 99.1% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut. Traders are keenly awaiting the Fed’s updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and its dot plot for further clues on interest rate directions in 2025.

In contrast, U.S. economic data painted a mixed picture. Services PMI surged to multi-year highs, while Manufacturing PMI remained below 50, signaling continued contraction. Retail Sales data, due later today, may have a limited impact as the Fed meeting takes precedence.

EUR/USD Technical Overview:
https://www.trade2win.com/proxy.php?...a940638ad58b88

 

1. Moving Averages (Exponential):
   1. MA 10: 1.0514 – Negative Crossover – Bearish
   2. MA 20: 1.0543 – Negative Crossover – Bearish
   3. MA 50: 1.0659 – Negative Crossover – Bearish

2. RSI: 42.47 – Neutral Zone
3. Stochastic Oscillator: 33.26 – Sell Zone
4. Resistance and Support Levels:
   1. R1: 1.0846 | R2: 1.0988
   2. S1: 1.0384 | S2: 1.0242

Overall Sentiment: Bearish
Market Direction: Sell
Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 1.0532 | Take Profit: 1.0474 | Stop Loss: 1.0575

GBP/USD Rebounds as Traders Eye Key Central Bank Decisions


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EUR/USD Struggles and GBP/USD Rebounds Amid Central Bank Focus. - 19/12/2024

INTRODUCTION
Major currency pairs remain under pressure as the US Dollar strengthens following the Federal Reserve’s hawkish rate cut. Traders now await key economic data, including US GDP and inflation figures, alongside central bank decisions in the UK, Eurozone, and Australia, which continue to shape market sentiment. This article delves into the market movements of EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, and USD/CAD, providing a detailed technical overview and trade suggestions to help investors navigate the evolving forex landscape.
EUR/USD Analysis


Market Overview
The EUR/USD pair remains under pressure, trading below the 1.0400 level, weighed down by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance on rate cuts. During Thursday’s Asian session, the pair dipped to around 1.0370 as the US Dollar strengthened.

Key Drivers

1. The Federal Reserve implemented a 25 basis point rate cut during its December meeting, reducing the benchmark lending rate to 4.25%-4.50%, the lowest in two years.
2. Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled a cautious approach to further rate reductions due to persistent inflation above the 2% target.
3. In the Eurozone, expectations of aggressive ECB rate cuts through June 2025 continue to weigh on the Euro.

Technical Overview
https://www.trade2win.com/proxy.php?...82f55f2c73d476

 

1. Moving Averages: Negative crossovers for MA 10, MA 20, and MA 50 indicate a bearish trend.
2. Indicators: RSI at 36.45 (sell zone); Stochastic Oscillator at 13.81 (neutral).
3. Resistance Levels: R1: 1.0846, R2: 1.0988.
4. Support Levels: S1: 1.0384, S2: 1.0242.

Trade Suggestion
Limit Sell: 1.0440
Take Profit: 1.0332
Stop Loss: 1.0516
GBP/USD Analysis


Market Overview
The GBP/USD pair rebounds near 1.2590 during Thursday’s Asian session, recovering from a 1% decline following the Federal Reserve’s hawkish rate cut. Anticipation of the Bank of England’s steady interest rate decision further influences market sentiment.

Key Drivers

1. UK CPI rose by 2.6% YoY in November, while Core CPI increased to 3.5%.
2. The Bank of England is expected to maintain its current interest rates, focusing on curbing high domestic inflation.
3. The pair remains under pressure as traders await critical US economic data, including GDP figures and jobless claims.

Technical Overview
https://www.trade2win.com/proxy.php?...928d0bd78de148

 

1. Moving Averages: Negative crossovers for MA 10, MA 20, and MA 50 reinforce bearish sentiment.
2. Indicators: RSI at 41.64 (neutral); Stochastic Oscillator at 23.65 (neutral).
3. Resistance Levels: R1: 1.2970, R2: 1.3102.
4. Support Levels: S1: 1.2542, S2: 1.2410.

Trade Suggestion
Limit Sell: 1.2624
Take Profit: 1.2485
Stop Loss: 1.2728
AUD/USD Analysis


Market Overview
The Australian Dollar stabilizes after trimming intraday losses during Thursday’s session. The AUD/USD pair remains under pressure due to the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance and rising Consumer Inflation Expectations in Australia.

Key Drivers

1. The Fed’s 25 basis point rate cut bolstered the US Dollar.
2. Australia’s Consumer Inflation Expectations rose to 4.2% in December, the highest since September.
3. Market speculation on potential RBA rate cuts adds downward pressure on the AUD.

Technical Overview
https://www.trade2win.com/proxy.php?...6a2e321aae9370

 

1. Moving Averages: Negative crossovers for MA 10, MA 20, and MA 50 confirm bearish momentum.
2. Indicators: RSI at 27.59 (sell zone); Stochastic Oscillator at 4.73 (neutral).
3. Resistance Levels: R1: 0.6641, R2: 0.6701.
4. Support Levels: S1: 0.6447, S2: 0.6387.

Trade Suggestion
Limit Sell: 0.6293
Take Profit: 0.6199
Stop Loss: 0.6366


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