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Hedging/averaging trades without prediction

  • #2,601
  • Feb 21, 2024 10:02am Feb 21, 2024 10:02am
Any traders not familiar with the UK’s top restaurant chain should definitely familiarise themselves with Greggs on arrival.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,602
  • Feb 21, 2024 1:31pm Feb 21, 2024 1:31pm
Have introduced a new successful random trade generator, trades can only be monitored, opened/closed at motorway service stations, proven quite profitable today. On a serious note, last night's DD has turned positive overall but I'm going to roll the dice and leave most of them open until the Weds swap payout later, will close and reset if things work out.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,603
  • Feb 22, 2024 3:24am Feb 22, 2024 3:24am
First positive round banked ths week, opened another "set" which went positive in minutes so set 3 open at the mo.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,604
  • Feb 23, 2024 12:35pm Feb 23, 2024 12:35pm
Update: +3.45% which equates to +0.69 per week in 5 weeks (+0.75% this week), not seen more than 1.8% DD so far on the 4 pair/swap (trading this live).
The fully automated EAs have returned +12.84% in 17 weeks = +0.76 per week.

Hedging the 4 pair/swap method suits me well as I don't need to be checking that often and profits are pretty consistent so far, news isn't an issue either but makes interesting viewing at times. Have a good weekend all.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,605
  • Feb 24, 2024 2:28am Feb 24, 2024 2:28am
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} Update banked +2820 pips minus 320 pips open, net +2500 pips good week ... Edit: this is from 19 December 2023
Update: banked +3468 minus 1030 pips open, net +2438 a small drop this week..
  • #2,606
  • Feb 24, 2024 5:30am Feb 24, 2024 5:30am
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} Update: banked +3468 minus 1030 pips open, net +2438 a small drop this week..
Going to start compounding as of next week, start bank £6300 so £0.63p per pip will increase to £0.64p per pip when bank hits £6400 so on and so on, as of before will update at end of each week ...
  • #2,607
  • Feb 24, 2024 8:01am Feb 24, 2024 8:01am
Same here, position sizes getting larger as I get more comfortable.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,608
  • Edited 6:21pm Feb 27, 2024 2:25pm | Edited 6:21pm
+0.98% this week so far on live swap/hedge trade, +1.13% (in one week) is the best to date. Worst week was the first one @ +0.34%.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,609
  • Feb 29, 2024 7:47am Feb 29, 2024 7:47am
ah i see that i can post again, was blocked for some reason...

good results! and if you can cope with the long sideways phases, then the advantages outweigh the disadvantages, namely hardly any time expenditure;-)
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #2,610
  • Feb 29, 2024 8:52am Feb 29, 2024 8:52am
Quoting birdland
ah i see that i can post again, was blocked for some reason... good results! and if you can cope with the long sideways phases, then the advantages outweigh the disadvantages, namely hardly any time expenditure;-)
Hello Bird, nice to see you back.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,611
  • Feb 29, 2024 10:12am Feb 29, 2024 10:12am
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} Going to start compounding as of next week, start bank £6300 so £0.63p per pip will increase to £0.64p per pip when bank hits £6400 so on and so on, as of before will update at end of each week ...
Hi wave, i got a question, you said you buy and sell every 30 minutes more or less and close posiotions when in profit, my question is if the price goes in one direction, lets say it keeps going down, you still buy every 30 minutes or you only keep one position buy and keep selling? Sorry for my bad english
  • #2,612
  • Mar 1, 2024 4:31am Mar 1, 2024 4:31am
i Guess that the Key Is volatility.
Can we predict?no! Just adapt on It.
So thinking in this direction when we see that the volatility Is growing instad of open a new trade every therty minutes we would try to open a new position every hour?four hour?and so on...with the same logic
  • #2,613
  • Mar 1, 2024 4:45am Mar 1, 2024 4:45am
on phone at work will post answers later when home
  • #2,614
  • Mar 1, 2024 9:52am Mar 1, 2024 9:52am
Quoting dieguito80
i Guess that the Key Is volatility. Can we predict?no! Just adapt on It. So thinking in this direction when we see that the volatility Is growing instad of open a new trade every therty minutes we would try to open a new position every hour?four hour?and so on...with the same logic
oh yes, we can predict. just see how market reacts after red news, CPI numbers or FOMC meetings.
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #2,615
  • Edited 11:15am Mar 1, 2024 10:08am | Edited 11:15am
Nothing wrong with predictions, S+R, news etc. all have a valid place and can be used to great advantage, but the question is do you have to predict. Also there's the question of how profitable are you investing all that time and energy predicting, is your time better spent doing other things (like work) and do you enjoy investing time in prediction based pursuits. Time is my most valuable asset and as I get older I'm more inclined to look at the return on any investment I spend doing things.

Having said all the above there is an element in prediction in my trading as I'll look for room for trades to go, I'm less inclined to average in to my two Yen pairs for example as they are running at a very high level historically, I do see room for EU to drop though, so I've made my profits shorting this in relation to USDMXN recently.

I'll post live and EA demo figures later.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,616
  • Mar 1, 2024 10:43am Mar 1, 2024 10:43am
you dont need to predict, even with an edge you dont predict. prediction is difficult because we can only guess the future...if at all.

but then i would say trading with an edge gives you much better performance numbers than trading without an edge.
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #2,617
  • Mar 1, 2024 10:55am Mar 1, 2024 10:55am
Quoting birdland
ah i see that i can post again, was blocked for some reason... good results! and if you can cope with the long sideways phases, then the advantages outweigh the disadvantages, namely hardly any time expenditure;-)
The reason you was blocked was I put you on my ignore list after I asked you for proof of this statement ..."
waveskierrob, i didn't know you had anti-semitic tendencies;-)", which you avoided answering by saying that "i can't answer you about this, because you don't accept private messages from me anymore and the forum here should not be abused.", however I have now unignored you so please carry on posting as you have a lot to offer....
  • #2,618
  • Mar 1, 2024 11:01am Mar 1, 2024 11:01am
Quoting Mazzus
{quote} Hi wave, i got a question, you said you buy and sell every 30 minutes more or less and close posiotions when in profit, my question is if the price goes in one direction, lets say it keeps going down, you still buy every 30 minutes or you only keep one position buy and keep selling? Sorry for my bad english
no need to appologises for your english probably better than mind, yes that's right, my latest SELL on the hour and half hour and BUY on the quarter to and quarter part is doing quite well I will be posting how my equity grows every week, just trying to show that there is no need to sit in front of computer waiting for set ups, thanks for post, if anything else not sure about please ask away...
  • #2,619
  • Mar 1, 2024 11:20am Mar 1, 2024 11:20am
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} The reason you was blocked was I put you on my ignore list after I asked you for proof of this statement ..." waveskierrob, i didn't know you had anti-semitic tendencies;-)", which you avoided answering by saying that "i can't answer you about this, because you don't accept private messages from me anymore and the forum here should not be abused.", however I have now unignored you so please carry on posting as you have a lot to offer....
Oh yes, now I remember.

after the massacre of 1200 israelis on october 7th i asked some "free for palestine" posters if this was an appropriate reaction.
especially towards our jewish posters.

you then banned me and put me on the ignore list.

THEN I accused you of anti-semitic tendencies.

so please don't mix up the order;-)

but all good from my side. after all, we live in a free world with free speach;-)
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #2,620
  • Edited 1:18pm Mar 1, 2024 11:30am | Edited 1:18pm
Quoting birdland
{quote} Oh yes, now I remember. after the massacre of 1200 israelis on october 7th i asked some "free for palestine" posters if this was an appropriate reaction. especially towards our jewish posters. you then banned me and put me on the ignore list. THEN I accused you of anti-semitic tendencies. so please don't mix up the order;-) but all good from my side. after all, we live in a free world with free speach;-)
All I said is that a poster could put up the Palestinian flag just as much as an Israeli flag, I'm an atheist I think they are as stupid as one another so please don't think that I have I bias, just like my trading I don't have one...but I'm happy to bury the hatch and move on ...
ps I ignored you after you wouldnt answer my question ...look it up...
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