Daily GBP/JPY analysis

will be staying short for a while. im at a decent profit now so much so i can close the position and run away. but its not like me to close it out. i have to get stopped out first. then will look at the current situation. funny you guys look at the news for some feed back. for me i dont even look at the news at all. just my indicators and thats it. i predicted this will go down and it did. i too used to look at the news but got tired of looking at them. so i just trade at my own accord. it might reverse either late tuesday or early wednesday. so keep an eye on it and ride it down.

trades baby

I hope to came too 245.05 .... then breack and down more.... I hope ... I hope....

245.5 is 23% fibo AND previous resistance ( now support)

needs something now ( new house sales?? )to move it

waiting again

This is what happened today in my opinion: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...68&postcount=4

great post, thnx

oh , thank you for this thread.

tru dat

no way near a unwind.

i'm sure you'll know if it becomes one.

prolly see alot of selling after roll over tonight again,

are you sure with down again???

Today Japanese housewives gone shopping, withdrawing fund via ATM.

Tomorrow they will reload their Broker account and start pushing YEN to 124 area.

nice rebound when NY traders entered market.

+100pips from bottom....

The situation:
In the attached chart you see a bounce off the countertrendline and off the area of dynamic support between the 34 and 55 EMAs. The 4H Stoch-RSI shows an oversold condition according to the above findings.

Three possible scenarios:

a) The unwinding scenario has just begun and we will see further drops to much lower levels, breaching the recent low and support line. Likelihood: Not very much, because there is a lot of fear about that "unwinding carry trade monster" presently in the market (just read the recent posts) and we got a proper bounce off the support, maybe resulting into a nice pin-bar on the 4H within the next 40 minutes. Secondly the average daily range is already consumed up until now, so a hammer like daily chart (a reversal day) is a likely outcome during the American session.

b) We will see a retracement up to the lately broken trendline (see short trendline) in the region of 247. That will be a likely scenario, when buying dries out at that level. When Stoch RSI reaches its overbought level until then it will be a confirmation of this. If that happens, it is time to go short because then the true unwinding starts.

c) The retracement will go further up than 247 and reaches last days highs. In this case a further trend continuation to 249 or above (254,30) is very likely. The top will be due on Thursday. The daily cycle analysis of the last swing indicates a high probability for this scenario. Combined with the pessimistic sentiment market might choose this direction as surprising element again. 4H and Daily trend is still up, not to forget.

Discussion of this private observations welcome.
Regards to all.
t.

Buy on dip syndrom, it's back up... My shorts are closed

Carries unwinding because of financial big shots on the wires are always nice bottoms to fish.

only buying on dip will move this towards 247/248...

should go down GBP JPY in h4

H4 is setting up a MONSTER pin-bar in GJ and UJ now...

I'm long....

i'm longer

I am still long ... ;-)