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Hedging/averaging trades without prediction

  • #2,581
  • Feb 14, 2024 12:29am Feb 14, 2024 12:29am
Quoting LazyTrades
Another round banked in profit, genuinely thought I'd have to wait a lot longer to get positive on some of these trades, original idea was to gain on the swap whilst waiting, but each round only seems to last a few hours before there's a profit on the table, correlation must fall out of sync quicker than expected. It's a nice problem to have as I say but it's a bit hard to explain at the mo. Be interested to see how anyone else finds it plays out for themselves, just clarify the concept: You can only sell USDMXN and EURUSD, you can only buy USDJPY...
Nice work, LT!

I'm currently forward testing a theory on a live FTMO challenge and will report back if it's successful. Single pair, low drawdown 0.1/0.2% per day is the aim..
  • #2,582
  • Feb 14, 2024 2:56am Feb 14, 2024 2:56am
Quoting Fagin
{quote} Nice work, LT! I'm currently forward testing a theory on a live FTMO challenge and will report back if it's successful. Single pair, low drawdown 0.1/0.2% per day is the aim..
Nice to see you back on the thread, keep us updated
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,583
  • Feb 16, 2024 3:53am Feb 16, 2024 3:53am
Interesting concepts. I trade using averaging and I am an mql4 programmer. If you use this concept on pairs that tend to be mean reversion, it works even better.
The idea of using swap in favor is very good, I want to experiment too. Some time ago I created an EA that trades using correlations with the pair trading strategy, but by doing backtests on mt5 which allows multiple pairs at the same time in the strategy tester, I did not obtain positive results (I now use the function that calculates the correlation in my EA, and is very useful for avoiding related assets)
  • #2,584
  • Feb 16, 2024 5:05am Feb 16, 2024 5:05am
Quoting LazyTrades
{quote} Nice to see you back on the thread, keep us updated
Will do, I've got a fair bit of work to do on it but it's showing early signs of an edge albeit in current conditions...
  • #2,585
  • Feb 16, 2024 7:00am Feb 16, 2024 7:00am
Quoting gian97
Interesting concepts. I trade using averaging and I am an mql4 programmer. If you use this concept on pairs that tend to be mean reversion, it works even better. The idea of using swap in favor is very good, I want to experiment too. Some time ago I created an EA that trades using correlations with the pair trading strategy, but by doing backtests on mt5 which allows multiple pairs at the same time in the strategy tester, I did not obtain positive results (I now use the function that calculates the correlation in my EA, and is very useful for avoiding...
Hello Gian and welcome, as you've probably realised I'm a big fan of averaging and not predicting anything, and not a big fan of spending too long in front of screens. Currently running a fully automated EA, based on the concepts of the thread (mainly for personal interest and empirical purposes) and live forward-testing my swap positive 4 pair average. Had my best week ever, so far with this, but will reserve judgement, and post results, close to end of play (UK time).
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,586
  • Feb 16, 2024 8:01am Feb 16, 2024 8:01am
Quoting LazyTrades
{quote} Hello Gian and welcome, ......
Hi LT, hope you're well and thanks for your contributions to the thread. I'm a silent lurker but do enjoy averaging into my trades and trading without prediction so looking forward to reading the thread in more detail.

Quick question please. Is the fully automated EA you're trading this one in post 2456 (https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...3#post14543993) or another one? Just trying to get a visualisation of how you're trading as I don't work too well just reading descriptions ha ha. If it is then i'll run it through the strategy tester and see how it works.

Also, thanks for recommending fxdreema in one of your posts. I trade manually as just don't know how to code. Was going to employ the services of a mql developer but maybe fxdreema is the way forward for me. Will look into it. Cheers, G
  • #2,587
  • Feb 16, 2024 9:08am Feb 16, 2024 9:08am
Quoting tritan
{quote} Hi LT, hope you're well and thanks for your contributions to the thread. I'm a silent lurker but do enjoy averaging into my trades and trading without prediction so looking forward to reading the thread in more detail. Quick question please. Is the fully automated EA you're trading this one in post 2456 (https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...3#post14543993) or another one? Just trying to get a visualisation of how you're trading as I don't work too well just reading descriptions ha ha. If it is then i'll run it through...
Hello Tritan, welcome, the EA you are referencing was never intended for anything other than a basic open close type thingy so no I'm not running that one. When I get home I'll post more details on the ones I'm using (which were the result of many hours work and days of optimising). Not sure I'll post the actual EAs as last time I had lots of requests to make small changes etc. and I think if you are going to use EAs you need to be able to tweak them yourselves. I'm not affiliated in any way with fxdreema but I have managed to get many EAs working using their software, forums are good and it's not expensive.

I'm pretty sure it was Bill Gates who once said “I choose a lazy person to do a hard job. Because a lazy person will find an easy way to do it.”
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,588
  • Feb 16, 2024 9:21am Feb 16, 2024 9:21am
Quoting LazyTrades
{quote} Hello Tritan, welcome, the EA you are referencing was never intended for anything other than a basic open close type thingy so no I'm not running that one. When I get home I'll post more details on the ones I'm using (which were the result of many hours work and days of optimising). Not sure I'll post the actual EAs as last time I had lots of requests to make small changes etc. and I think if you are going to use EAs you need to be able to tweak them yourselves. I'm not affiliated in any way with fxdreema but I have managed to get many EAs...
Thanks LT. I'd definitely appreciate the detail if you could provide it and completely understand on not posting the actual EAs. I've seen plenty of EA developers on here and other places getting plagued with requests so I can only imagine how frustrating it ends up becoming. And anyhow, think i'll quite enjoy building my own EA(s) when the time comes as long as there are options like fxdreema as I definitely couldn't code from scratch, at least if I wanted it to work ha ha!!

I currently use a VPS to run an EA across a few mt4 terminals but looking into setting up my own home 'vps' type mini pc set up. Once I do this and everything's sitting pretty, I should have some time on my hands to start looking into coding my own EA for my manual strategy. We will see ha ha.

Like the Bill Gates quote I definitely don't consider myself lazy but do indeed try to find the easiest way to do things as my brain doesn't work in detail and not enough time in the day lol.

Cheers, G
  • #2,589
  • Feb 16, 2024 9:25am Feb 16, 2024 9:25am
No probs, Bill Gates was aimed at me
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,590
  • Feb 16, 2024 9:33am Feb 16, 2024 9:33am
Quoting LazyTrades
No probs, Bill Gates was aimed at me
No worries. Didn't think it was at me.... but "if the shoe fits"
  • #2,591
  • Edited 3:49pm Feb 16, 2024 11:28am | Edited 3:49pm
Ok as promised, here are the parameters for each of the 4 EAs which have been running 24/7 since 1/12/2023 on demo using IG (UK). All these do is open a trade of the same size (0.01p) if a candle of a certain size forms (closes). If there is no trade the next qualifying candle determines the direction, in other words if the first trade is a sell on USDMXN the EA continues to open sells until TP is hit. Each pair has an optimised set of parameters and only opens another trade if there is no other trade nearby (bit like a random grid). My EAs are running independently of each other on 5min charts and they open counter trend so if a qualifying bull candle forms (and there are no open trades) the EA starts opening sells (as long as the rules are met).

The inputs for the EA (there's only 5) are (PIPS):
inp5 = TP
inp45 = Required bull candle size to open a trade
inp46 = Required bear candle size to open a trade
inp47 = Required pip difference to open another bull trade
inp48 = Required pip difference to open another bear trade

USDMXN
inp5 = 2100
inp45 = 40
inp46 = 250
inp47 = 1400
inp48 = 1400

EURGBP
inp5 = 6
inp45 = 4
inp46 = 5
inp47 = 13
inp48 = 9

USDJPY
inp5 = 9
inp45 = 10
inp46 = 4
inp47 = 17
inp48 = 17

GBPUSD
inp5 = 3
inp45 = 7
inp46 = 3
inp47 = 13
inp48 = 21

Finally I'd go on to say there's no magic here, just some general settings that have worked to date on EAs that generate trades without sitting by the screen all day, there's no real bias on direction other than historical data and you could be long/short any pair for days/weeks. The point is (and I hope Rob agrees), there are potentially alternative ways to profit from the randomness of the markets. Honestly I just leave this lot running without any interaction to see how it behaves in certain conditions. Next post will show results, including my forward testing using the positive swap trades on my live account.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,592
  • Edited 12:35pm Feb 16, 2024 11:45am | Edited 12:35pm
Got woken up at 4am today by some bells, thought I was at some bloody train crossroads until I realised my equity alert was ringing on the PC, must have turned the volume up by mistake for some other reason, anyway been a good week (+1.13%) live trading the 4 (positive swap only) pairs, that's now +2.71% in 4 weeks (of which .51% is positive swap).

The EAs (above) had a flat week so now stand at:
Weeks=16
Net Profit=£1,298
Profit Per Week=£81.13%
Profit Per Week=0.81%
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,593
  • Edited Feb 17, 2024 12:13am Feb 16, 2024 11:48pm | Edited Feb 17, 2024 12:13am
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} Update:...banked +2272 pips.....open - 422 pips....net +1850 ...down 200 pips from last week ..., but happy as has to happen every now and then...
Update banked +2820 pips minus 320 pips open, net +2500 pips good week ...

Edit: this is from 19 December 2023
  • #2,594
  • Feb 17, 2024 3:51am Feb 17, 2024 3:51am
Quoting LazyTrades
Got woken up at 4am today by some bells, thought I was at some bloody train crossroads until I realised my equity alert was ringing on the PC, must have turned the volume up by mistake for some other reason, anyway been a good week (+1.13%) live trading the 4 (positive swap only) pairs, that's now +2.71% in 4 weeks (of which .51% is positive swap). The EAs (above) had a flat week so now stand at: Weeks=16 Net Profit=£1,298 Profit Per Week=£81.13% Profit Per Week=0.81%
Ha ha. Can think of worse things to be woken up by. Nice one.

Thanks for the EA parameter info above. Gives me something to think about and how it might work in with my own EAs. Watching yourself and Waveskierrob with interest.

Have a good weekend mate.

G
  • #2,595
  • Feb 17, 2024 7:59am Feb 17, 2024 7:59am
Quoting LazyTrades
{quote} Hello Gian and welcome, as you've probably realised I'm a big fan of averaging and not predicting anything, and not a big fan of spending too long in front of screens. Currently running a fully automated EA, based on the concepts of the thread (mainly for personal interest and empirical purposes) and live forward-testing my swap positive 4 pair average. Had my best week ever, so far with this, but will reserve judgement, and post results, close to end of play (UK time).
If I can give you a suggestion since I have already experimented with the strategy you are using, I would use an atr value instead of pips. For example, if the candle exceeds atr 14 periods x 2 ( just an example) in this way the values will always be linked to the volatility of the asset, and you will need fewer reoptimizations.
Another interesting filter is also the average volatility. If volatility is increasing relative to its average, it is more likely that the market is about to reverse than if volatility is low and constant
  • #2,596
  • Feb 19, 2024 7:57am Feb 19, 2024 7:57am
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} Update banked +2820 pips minus 320 pips open, net +2500 pips good week ... Edit: this is from 19 December 2023
You are living example of anti-thesis of all technical or fundamental stuff. No strategy works in long run. Just coin flip with risk management kodos.
  • #2,597
  • Feb 19, 2024 8:36am Feb 19, 2024 8:36am
Quoting sampat
{quote} You are living example of anti-thesis of all technical or fundamental stuff. No strategy works in long run. Just coin flip with risk management kodos.
Hello Sampat, personally I would say whilst some of the concepts on the thread are definitely the antithesis of traditional technical and fundamental theory that's not to say they are all exclusive in their ability to profit. I've been successful using all three of the above, in some form or other, but my most valuable asset is time and the mental/time demands of technical trading aren't so appealing to me at the moment.

P.S. I'm lazy and Rob has a magic coin.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,598
  • Feb 19, 2024 11:44am Feb 19, 2024 11:44am
Quoting LazyTrades
{quote} Hello Sampat, personally I would say whilst some of the concepts on the thread are definitely the antithesis of traditional technical and fundamental theory that's not to say they are all exclusive in their ability to profit. I've been successful using all three of the above, in some form or other, but my most valuable asset is time and the mental/time demands of technical trading aren't so appealing to me at the moment. P.S. I'm lazy and Rob has a magic coin.
Yes of course there will be some technical bias of any trade. If you put any chart one can get bias whether it goes down or up. But with hedging, money management and fear of not loosing one can make proper decision and not do revenge trades with is root cause of all blown accounts.
  • #2,599
  • Feb 21, 2024 5:05am Feb 21, 2024 5:05am
Sat at a service station enjoying the bargain prices, probably the same the world over but here in the UK I’ve never felt so much like an emaciated cow who has been milked just once too often. Midweek update on the live swap/hedge: have 25% of available trading margin spread over the four pairs currently sitting in a small DD, have taken some profits and swap payouts have been good due the overall size of the hedge, tonight’s swap should overtake the DD after which I’ll decide the next move.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,600
  • Feb 21, 2024 7:40am Feb 21, 2024 7:40am
Quoting LazyTrades
Sat at a service station enjoying the bargain prices, probably the same the world over but here in the UK I’ve never felt so much like an emaciated cow who has been milked just once too often. Midweek update on the live swap/hedge: have 25% of available trading margin spread over the four pairs currently sitting in a small DD, have taken some profits and swap payouts have been good due the overall size of the hedge, tonight’s swap should overtake the DD after which I’ll decide the next move.
Can't beat a Greggs Sausage Roll on a wet, cold afternoon though..
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