{ Links Removed }
- #6,808
- Edited 1:14am Jun 26, 2007 12:32am | Edited 1:14am
Now I used the H1 Chart to make it easier to see what I am pointing at 
This is the situation as I see it. What I do with it depends on whether there is any continued risk aversion sentiment in the short term. As it is playing out now. There is a growing concern about this as NewstraderFX points out. And now the concern looks to be spreading and looking more worse for wear as each day passes.
So what do we have here. Well that break of a supporting trend line looks nice. Though that is just my version of a TL and it is also the one hour chart so don't mean much to me just yet. How ever if the close of the next H4(not the one currently in play) does still not break above that TL then I will be a little more weary of longing it.
If it does not break up it very well may head down towards the 245.80ish support zone which I think will see a staunch defense from exporters and house wives in the land of the rising sun. How ever it still has to go through the 246.50/40ish support zone which amazingly held this morning, further signaling a reluctance to throw in the carry trading towel just yet as i understand it. Once again that support was as I read it championed by exporters out of Japan.
On the upside though. the 247.25ish area as I see it is the first serious resistance and being that it has less history may be more easily breached. But above that I see 247.80ish being a larger barrier and should London not like the news of a confirmed loss in one of it major hedge funds we may see more risk aversion as the brits tend to have a good head for these things IMO. And so there may be a lack of movement in that general direction.
So I am sitting on the fence for this one. Just waiting for the players to make up there mind as to which game they want to play. It could go anywhere over the next day or so. Or it may not. Regardless. I think longs are currying less favor with me and the big tip maybe just around the corner. How ever if we go up up and away on the recent record highs I would be even less likely to long it as I think it would just fan the fires of any further risk aversion should the Chinese bubble burst(thanks to the guys who through that spanner into my works for assimilation) and the looming sub-prime disaster which is looking to get worse.
So thats all I can be bothered writing for now. I do not advise trading on any of this advise. I simply want to make my opinions public and see what people think. I am new to this style of trading and wasted the first 4 years of learning on the M15(just is not my style anymore not saying it's wrong) which works a hell of a lot differently to this approach. I have been trading this way for a few months but have never really voiced any thought till recently. I just want to see if I am thinking more in line with the rest of the world yet. %75 success rate on average for the last 3 months so far, so bettering my analysis technique would help give me a few extra pips. And we all enjoy that from time to time.
So yeah any criticism or advice or opinion is very welcome. After all most of us are here to better our selves as traders and there is no better way to do it then this IMO
PS: Also for Bigfoot and Forex related rants check my blog from time to time.
This is the situation as I see it. What I do with it depends on whether there is any continued risk aversion sentiment in the short term. As it is playing out now. There is a growing concern about this as NewstraderFX points out. And now the concern looks to be spreading and looking more worse for wear as each day passes.
So what do we have here. Well that break of a supporting trend line looks nice. Though that is just my version of a TL and it is also the one hour chart so don't mean much to me just yet. How ever if the close of the next H4(not the one currently in play) does still not break above that TL then I will be a little more weary of longing it.
If it does not break up it very well may head down towards the 245.80ish support zone which I think will see a staunch defense from exporters and house wives in the land of the rising sun. How ever it still has to go through the 246.50/40ish support zone which amazingly held this morning, further signaling a reluctance to throw in the carry trading towel just yet as i understand it. Once again that support was as I read it championed by exporters out of Japan.
On the upside though. the 247.25ish area as I see it is the first serious resistance and being that it has less history may be more easily breached. But above that I see 247.80ish being a larger barrier and should London not like the news of a confirmed loss in one of it major hedge funds we may see more risk aversion as the brits tend to have a good head for these things IMO. And so there may be a lack of movement in that general direction.
So I am sitting on the fence for this one. Just waiting for the players to make up there mind as to which game they want to play. It could go anywhere over the next day or so. Or it may not. Regardless. I think longs are currying less favor with me and the big tip maybe just around the corner. How ever if we go up up and away on the recent record highs I would be even less likely to long it as I think it would just fan the fires of any further risk aversion should the Chinese bubble burst(thanks to the guys who through that spanner into my works for assimilation) and the looming sub-prime disaster which is looking to get worse.
So thats all I can be bothered writing for now. I do not advise trading on any of this advise. I simply want to make my opinions public and see what people think. I am new to this style of trading and wasted the first 4 years of learning on the M15(just is not my style anymore not saying it's wrong) which works a hell of a lot differently to this approach. I have been trading this way for a few months but have never really voiced any thought till recently. I just want to see if I am thinking more in line with the rest of the world yet. %75 success rate on average for the last 3 months so far, so bettering my analysis technique would help give me a few extra pips. And we all enjoy that from time to time.
So yeah any criticism or advice or opinion is very welcome. After all most of us are here to better our selves as traders and there is no better way to do it then this IMO
PS: Also for Bigfoot and Forex related rants check my blog from time to time.
- #6,816
- Jun 26, 2007 1:35am Jun 26, 2007 1:35am
Zdrastviche! Here they come again.
Who knows how long it will last. Watch out for their action. They could quickly reverse their position.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...ussian+players
Who knows how long it will last. Watch out for their action. They could quickly reverse their position.http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...ussian+players
- #6,820
- Jun 26, 2007 1:42am Jun 26, 2007 1:42am
Certainly there or thereabouts - the real question is - where after that ? I need to do some more price projectionns and see where we could end up.
Could be time to fill our boots !
((EDIT)) 242 - 245ish