How can you find big moves that last months? | Forex Factory

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How can you find big moves that last months?

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Feb 29, 2024 6:48am Feb 16, 2024 4:16am | Edited Feb 29, 2024 6:48am
Example cocoa went up
Maybe the turtle system would be the best to enter this trade?
fundamentals:Cocoa headed for the biggest monthly advance in more than two decades in New York on the back of mounting supply fears that threaten to push chocolate prices even higher.
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  • #2
  • Edited 5:02am Feb 16, 2024 4:25am | Edited 5:02am
i will try 50 sma ans 200 sma
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  • #3
  • Feb 16, 2024 6:25am Feb 16, 2024 6:25am
It is not because the moving averages cross that we have an entry or we find big moves.

Fundamental analysis will be the main guide.
Know how to interpret and combine data such as interest rates, economic growth, inflation, central bank policies.
The relationship and correlation with other markets.
And only then the technical analysis to make the entries.

But I'm just a day trader.
Cheers
Uncertainty of the market must be embraced and accepted.
  • #4
  • Edited 2:23pm Feb 16, 2024 8:30am | Edited 2:23pm
Quoting Puntacana
i will try 50 sma ans 200 sma {image}
Find big moves im adding s/r
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  • #5
  • Feb 17, 2024 9:25pm Feb 17, 2024 9:25pm
Finding price reversals at weekly and daily timeframes levels will help. When these two align (All are bullish or all are bearish) it is a good signal that the long term trend has started. Ofcouse one should refine entry to four hour or hourly timeframes .
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  • #6
  • Feb 19, 2024 1:50am Feb 19, 2024 1:50am
Quoting amasasi
Finding price reversals at weekly and daily timeframes levels will help. When these two align (All are bullish or all are bearish) it is a good signal that the long term trend has started. Ofcouse one should refine entry to four hour or hourly timeframes .
COCO
Price reversal?
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  • #7
  • Feb 19, 2024 8:52am Feb 19, 2024 8:52am
Price reversal?
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  • #8
  • Feb 19, 2024 2:55pm Feb 19, 2024 2:55pm
I don't know about months, but I am experimenting with this for trend identification, which may provide longer trades if and when you catch an entry plus the Forex gods agree!

Buy when PRICE is:
1 / 2) above previous months' open and above this months' open
3 / 4) above previous weeks' open and above this weeks' open
5 / 6) above previous days' open and above todays' open
7) there is good indication of strength vs weak

Opposite for Sell setups.

Risk management as per individual trader's experience and situation.

Good Luck

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  • #9
  • Feb 19, 2024 6:46pm Feb 19, 2024 6:46pm
Quoting Erebus
I don't know about months, but I am experimenting with this for trend identification, which may provide longer trades if and when you catch an entry plus the Forex gods agree! Buy when PRICE is: 1 / 2) above previous months' open and above this months' open 3 / 4) above previous weeks' open and above this weeks' open 5 / 6) above previous days' open and above todays' open 7) there is good indication of strength vs weak Opposite for Sell setups. Risk management as per individual trader's experience and situation. Good Luck {image}
sound good.
ill find and indicator to print the horizontal line for the d,w,w open
  • #10
  • Feb 19, 2024 8:38pm Feb 19, 2024 8:38pm
Quoting Puntacana
Example cocoa went up Maybe the turtle system would be the best to enter this trade? {image}
Easy

Set up every market you want to trade and set it to the Weekly chart. Then place a ATR indicator on the bottom and wait for it to hit the lowest value it can and wait till it shows some upward movement.

The biggest trend starts from a tight squeeze and the ATR shows it perfectly.

If you private message me, I’ll give you the other special sauce you should use as well.
Put them together and you are ahead of the pack.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #11
  • Edited Feb 20, 2024 8:15am Feb 19, 2024 9:08pm | Edited Feb 20, 2024 8:15am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Easy Set up every market you want to trade and set it to the Weekly chart. Then place a ATR indicator on the bottom and wait for it to hit the lowest value it can and wait till it shows some upward movement. The biggest trend starts from a tight squeeze and the ATR shows it perfectly. If you private message me, I’ll give you the other special sauce you should use as well. Put them together and you are ahead of the pack.
Amazing input Rick as always! You highlight possibly the best way to forecast potential long-term trends, before they happen.

It reminds be of a quote and ultimately a rule that, at some point, always becomes true: "high volatility begets low, and low volatility begets high volatility"

Here is the full web search from google: "The average true range is a volatility indicator. Volatility measures the strength of the price action and is often overlooked for clues on market direction. A better known volatility indicator is Bollinger Bands. In "Bollinger on Bollinger Bands" (2002), John Bollinger writes, ""high volatility begets low, and low volatility begets high."" The chart below focuses solely on volatility, omitting price, so we can see that volatility follows a clear cycle."

However I do not agree with that full quote, as volatility itself does not provide any clue as to market direction. As to the book mentioned, regardless of your thoughts on the author or indicator, it is a good read and can spark some really interesting ideas relating to volatility and cycles.
Seeking Fair Value
  • #12
  • Edited Feb 20, 2024 4:25am Feb 19, 2024 11:20pm | Edited Feb 20, 2024 4:25am
Quoting Erebus
I don't know about months, but I am experimenting with this for trend identification, which may provide longer trades if and when you catch an entry plus the Forex gods agree! Buy when PRICE is: 1 / 2) above previous months' open and above this months' open 3 / 4) above previous weeks' open and above this weeks' open 5 / 6) above previous days' open and above todays' open 7) there is good indication of strength vs weak Opposite for Sell setups. Risk management as per individual trader's experience and situation. Good Luck {image}
then i guess your system rule are to sell short when a 4 hours chart closes below the monthly ,weekly and daily open, ? please see example chart below
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  • #13
  • Edited Feb 20, 2024 4:44am Feb 19, 2024 11:21pm | Edited Feb 20, 2024 4:44am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Easy Set up every market you want to trade and set it to the Weekly chart. Then place a ATR indicator on the bottom and wait for it to hit the lowest value it can and wait till it shows some upward movement. The biggest trend starts from a tight squeeze and the ATR shows it perfectly. If you private message me, I’ll give you the other special sauce you should use as well. Put them together and you are ahead of the pack.
great idea thanks
ATR BO AND PRICE BO
Market going side way with atr at extreme low/high wait for price bo
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  • #14
  • Feb 20, 2024 5:25am Feb 20, 2024 5:25am
Quoting Puntacana
{quote} then i guess your system rule are to sell short when a 4 hours chart closes below the monthly ,weekly and daily open, ? please see example chart below {image} {image}
I'll type it out for sells, where do you read anything about Close? Or even timeframe?

Sell when PRICE is:
1 / 2) below previous months' open and below this months' open
3 / 4) below previous weeks' open and below this weeks' open
5 / 6) below previous days' open and below todays' open
7) there is good indication of strength vs weak

You can use close, any price you want, it's your account, I don't have any sell charts at the moment.
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #15
  • Feb 20, 2024 5:38am Feb 20, 2024 5:38am
Quoting Erebus
{quote} I'll type it out for sells, where do you read anything about Close? Or even timeframe? Sell when PRICE is: 1 / 2) below previous months' open and below this months' open 3 / 4) below previous weeks' open and below this weeks' open 5 / 6) below previous days' open and below todays' open 7) there is good indication of strength vs weak You can use close, any price you want, it's your account, I don't have any sell charts at the moment.
I just made up and entry point
""strategy"" using the info that you provided, i decided my owm time frame and when to enter using the horizontal open lines.
The i asked you if your system was like that.
i was just gessing how you use those level
  • #16
  • Feb 20, 2024 6:15am Feb 20, 2024 6:15am
Quoting Puntacana
{quote} I just made up and entry point ""strategy"" using the info that you provided, i decided my owm time frame and when to enter using the horizontal open lines. The i asked you if your system was like that. i was just gessing how you use those level
You got a lot of stuff on your chart, Stoch, Pivots, Turtles?

GBPUSD would be the closest thing to be a short, see if USD powers up in US session.

Once the price goes below the daily open, the day candle will be red you know!

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  • #17
  • Feb 20, 2024 6:32am Feb 20, 2024 6:32am
These were my picks yesterday, didn't get the best entry on many, as you can see, no sells yet.

This is also the Trade Explorer in my signature if you want to follow along, it's only Tuesday, could all unravel by Friday.

Good Luck.

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  • #18
  • Feb 22, 2024 6:20pm Feb 22, 2024 6:20pm
Quoting Erebus
{quote} You got a lot of stuff on your chart, Stoch, Pivots, Turtles? GBPUSD would be the closest thing to be a short, see if USD powers up in US session. Once the price goes below the daily open, the day candle will be red you know! {image}
thanks, that sound good for daytrading.
  • #19
  • Feb 23, 2024 4:18am Feb 23, 2024 4:18am
Daily chart
waiting for bo
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  • #20
  • Feb 23, 2024 10:23am Feb 23, 2024 10:23am
Hi,

If it were me (I can't trade this market easily as in UK and its clunky trading it) - I would first work out the repeating cycles (if any) as if there are any this is a MAJOR/MASSIVE advantage over 99% of traders, then

I would of looked at the COT report to see the position of the COMMERCIALS and then looked at the chart for technical confirmation of a move

Most of the times when the commercials have a NET LONG position in ANY commodity, it means they are positioned opposite to how they are normally positioned and at some point that positioning reverses and if highly correlated to rises in price, often significant rises - It MEANS that the COMMs are BIG BIG BUYERS of the commodity and the rule of Investing is buy low sell higher

I've marked the times this event happened - as you can see the prev times little effect on price - this is most likely down to the cycle that this market works to - when it all balances, it explodes

Price simply being ABOVE a moving average when this phenomena occurs is a good enough entry and trailing system to employ - if you get the cycle wrong though it won't work and you'll get chopped up

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Here's charts of wheat etc I used to catch the 2020+ rises

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The COMMERCIALS are the legal INSIDE TRADERS of their market - as you can see its nearly always been advisable to follow them for decades

Remember 95% of traders FAIL of the 5% that win only 1-2% do so profitably and consistently, which means that most of the people on here are talking crap, with their methods and systems (Which is why traders start selling "courses, YouTube channels and software!")
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