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USDCAD trend reversal?

  • #1,081
  • Jun 25, 2007 7:34am Jun 25, 2007 7:34am
against USD/CAD - South.
  • #1,082
  • Edited 10:36am Jun 25, 2007 9:28am | Edited 10:36am
I think the USD/CAD is finally setting itself up for a big breakout Northwards between now and the next few days. If you draw a diagonal trend line on the 4 hr chart on top of the 4 peaks beginning on 3/20/07 thru 6/18/07, you will see that a few days ago it broken through that trend line. Now, also add in that the USD/CAD is currently in an Ascending Triangle, then it looks even more so ready for a big breakout upwards. (As babypips.com points out about the Ascending Triangle, the price usually breaks out through the resistance of an Ascending Triangle. Of course, that is usually and not necessarily always). I would post a chart here showing the diagonal trend line and the Ascending Triangle, but I have no idea how to do it. I hate my lack of knowledge about computers! lol.

How far it will go up, I don't know. It's been in such a big down trend for so long that it's hard to say something like it will go up five hundred or a thousand of pips. However, when (or if) it breaks out upwards through that triangle, my personal guess is the next target is around 1.0930 - 1.1000 area.
"Trading is a mental sport." - Ziad Masri
  • #1,083
  • Jun 25, 2007 9:30am Jun 25, 2007 9:30am
I also believe it will break to the North!
  • #1,084
  • Jun 25, 2007 9:47am Jun 25, 2007 9:47am
Quoting Quickdraw
Now, also add in that the USD/CAD is currently in an Ascending Triangle
I think the jury is still out on whether this is a bear flag or a bullish ascending candle. The upper edge of an ascending triangle should be horizontal (prices touching the same high over several periods). We're not seeing that here..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cad.gif Size: 13 KB
  • #1,085
  • Jun 25, 2007 10:02am Jun 25, 2007 10:02am
Errr what triangle? this is a text-book flag. I dont know whether it will break to the upside or to the downside (I dont play the market-foreseeing game), but it's rather obvious that it's a flag.
Attached Image
  • #1,086
  • Jun 25, 2007 10:17am Jun 25, 2007 10:17am
Sure its a flag but there is a triangle in it as well which the other person may have meant, it may provide a nice trade.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cad.jpg Size: 135 KB
  • #1,087
  • Jun 25, 2007 10:55am Jun 25, 2007 10:55am
Quoting Trader KGB
The upper edge of an ascending triangle should be horizontal (prices touching the same high over several periods). We're not seeing that here..
Quoting WTB
Errr what triangle? this is a text-book flag.

Are ya'll not seeing the horizontal line drawn from the peak at 5/30/07 to the peak at 6/21/07, where it is a perfect horizontal line?? That forms the top part of the triangle (which is obviously the "horizontal" part of the triangle). Now add in the support trend line and there ya go, an Ascending Triangle. I can't believe you guys can't see that.
"Trading is a mental sport." - Ziad Masri
  • #1,088
  • Jun 25, 2007 11:15am Jun 25, 2007 11:15am
Quoting Quickdraw
Are ya'll not seeing the horizontal line drawn from the peak at 5/30/07 to the peak at 6/21/07, where it is a perfect horizontal line?? That forms the top part of the triangle (which is obviously the "horizontal" part of the triangle). Now add in the support trend line and there ya go, an Ascending Triangle. I can't believe you guys can't see that.
Dont try to overanalyze for elements that are not clearly seen on the chart. The 1.0750 level (your triangle top) is indeed working as a resistance level like many round numbers do. But the pattern in itself is clearly a flag. Do the following - devoid your charts of lines, indicators, MAs, etc. And now look at the chart with fresh eyes; which formation jump out of your screen more recognizably, the triangle or the flag? whichever does is probably the right formation you should be looking to trade.
  • #1,089
  • Jun 25, 2007 11:44am Jun 25, 2007 11:44am
Usd/Cad .......

 Update -
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Here is today's Coil Formation pointed out to you from last night .......
0730 now looks like Resistance

again , i ask which way will it break ?
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to the North ? .....or.....to the South ?.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CAD-6-25-2007-#2.jpg Size: 62 KB
  • #1,090
  • Jun 25, 2007 11:48am Jun 25, 2007 11:48am
Orions way - are you there ?....

Do you have the 1/2 hour bar chart ready .....
use the same chart style form your last post ....
with the white background .

What are they saying ? do you have a type 1 set up yet ?

Please post a 1/2 hour bar chart .... Thanx alot !
  • #1,091
  • Jun 25, 2007 12:07pm Jun 25, 2007 12:07pm
Market, i dont use gartley, this program isnt picking anything up on the back end for any setups and not so sure of the front 1 or A 2 or b

Volume is saying this is being bought on dips and we had a nice 62% pullback
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenHunter_15.jpg Size: 52 KB
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #1,092
  • Jun 25, 2007 12:19pm Jun 25, 2007 12:19pm
Quoting OrionsWay
Volume is saying this is being bought on dips and we had a nice 62% pullback
Volume?
  • #1,093
  • Edited 12:32pm Jun 25, 2007 12:22pm | Edited 12:32pm
orion yous are using the automatic settings

You have to do this manually

- use theses key points in this chart
( click on each point )

it will give you price projections

Do it manually with 1/2 hr bars ...........

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I will post a Gartley article shortly -
so you see the patterns are the same ,....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CAD-6-25-2007-#3.jpg Size: 58 KB
  • #1,094
  • Jun 25, 2007 12:28pm Jun 25, 2007 12:28pm
Orions Way

Please read this article
about these type of setups -
------------------------------------------
They are the same as type 1's
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Trading the GARTLEY 222.pdf   700 KB | 2,978 downloads
  • #1,095
  • Jun 25, 2007 12:37pm Jun 25, 2007 12:37pm
Quoting marketwavez
Orions Way

Please read this article
about these type of setups -
------------------------------------------
They are the same as type 1's

I have read some garley books, but in the end price doesnt matter, order flow matters, and volume tells that story. But yes i know of a few setups sequences. Order flow time volume and price action are the structure to every traded market on earrth though. It just so happens that volumes are high or low at these critical decision points. So i basically use volume as my main indicator to tell when Real money is there or lack of them playing
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #1,096
  • Jun 25, 2007 12:53pm Jun 25, 2007 12:53pm
Quoting OrionsWay
So i basically use volume as my main indicator to tell when Real money is there or lack of them playing
And you're deriving volume data from the FX markets HOW?
  • #1,097
  • Jun 25, 2007 1:10pm Jun 25, 2007 1:10pm
Quoting Trader KGB
And you're deriving volume data from the FX markets HOW?

Interbank and a few others have volume, tick volume not absolute volume like in futures. which is relavent to the size of each bar to a value. For your chart looks exactly like my chart and the guy in Korea's chart. It just shows market partcipation and by who is playing. Low volume is u and me high volume is professionals, and that can be captured, for it is those guys who move the market so its that volume and price action i want to follow.
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #1,098
  • Jun 25, 2007 4:33pm Jun 25, 2007 4:33pm
Quoting OrionsWay
Interbank and a few others have volume, tick volume...Low volume is u and me high volume is professionals
Is there empirical evidence which correlates high tick volume with currency value traded?

I'm not sure if I would read too much into tick volume.. With the advent of FX ECNs and the consequent shrinking of spreads, one would expect a steady rise in tick volume, regardless of underlying value flow.
  • #1,099
  • Edited 5:18pm Jun 25, 2007 5:07pm | Edited 5:18pm
Quoting Trader KGB
Is there empirical evidence which correlates high tick volume with currency value traded?

I'm not sure if I would read too much into tick volume.. With the advent of FX ECNs and the consequent shrinking of spreads, one would expect a steady rise in tick volume, regardless of underlying value flow.
The volume that registers is when each trade is paired up and the order flow overcomes the other that will tick up or down 1.
2 buy orders and 3 sell orders the volume will tick up 1. and price will drop 1. that volume balance will be relevant to the spread of that bar being printed. The magnitude of orders overcoming other orders in this ZERO SUM GAME will prove where that activity is and what type of players are active.
That is the best i can explain it, hope this helps you understand.
Maybe 1 day the FX arena will become 1 standard exchange and have complete volume like futures.
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #1,100
  • Jun 25, 2007 8:32pm Jun 25, 2007 8:32pm
ORIONS WAY
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THIS IS HOLDING ! and Holding !

Remember this chart from earlier today ?


it also now looks like a double bottom at 1065
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CAD-6-25-2007-#3.jpg Size: 58 KB
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