Let's Trade Options

PPI quite hotter than expected, the Russel futures down 1.5%, but /es just a little and /nq still green. Not sure what it'll take to quell the bulls...

In the following:

QDEL Mar15 45 CALL at $1.90

GE Mar1 147 PUT at $1.54

most likely the AI bubble will need to bust, and that could take years. Reminds me of the dotcom bubble, and we could be at the beginning of the run. NVDA earnings next week could be a blip if it's a miss. Market is saying SMCI, NVDA, are a bargain at any price...

Stairs up, elevator down, lol....with all the long-dated ICs I have on, every 10c move is about a $1,000 swing in p/l. Missing those sideways markets.

With a short week next week, I may try to sell the top with something b4 the close...

In the following:

AKAM Mar15 115 CALL at $1.99

Put in my bid at $2.00, but it got hit at $1.99 for some reason. Saved me a penny, though. And as they say, never lick a gift horse in the mouth! Which kinda goes without sayin', right?!.....

Hail Mary Bid in for the following:

QDEL Mar15 50 CALL at $0.30

Maybe it will get hit before the close.

I'm gonna get one contract of SPY Mar8 490 PUT today to test my weekly chart theory and I'm gonna try to get it around $1.80...we will see.

lotto tix for more tech parabola

In the following:

SPY Mar8 490 PUT at $1.955 average

Paid more, but wanted to get it today.

I'll comment on SPY trades later. I had a good week, hope all did the same. Have a good weekend ya'll.

The last decent red daily we had was on Jan31, FOMC day. 62pts down was more than erased by 2 big green days right after. Nevertheless, I note there was a little sell-off on the FOMC. We have FOMC minutes out Feb21, then NVDA earnings out after hours the same day. Those are the big things to watch in the coming week. If the markets sink on bearish minutes, and then NVDA blows off some froth on earnings, watch out! We are due for a decent pullback and that could get it started. (I actually think NVDA will crush earnings, but we'll see.)

Anyway, to catch a weekly red candle, I'd look at cheap fotm put diagonals, like....

SPX Feb23/26 4860/4850 puts, risk $80 to make $800 net, b/e upside at 4985 or so, modeled with a 1% iv rise, probably would be better on a big move. With the downside be below a 2σ move, I would probably not hedge the tail.

SMCI ...lol, I want to be bearish the whole market, can make a bear case easily, but, if NVDA posts insane earnings Wed, it'll drag up all the tech names.

with iv's @ 170% I might try a fly, or sell a fotm call spread....the 1-lot $170 call fly shown could pay $4,800 with a Friday pin @ $1,000

10% blowoff for NVDA takes it to about $650....the maxP for the $380 fly shown is $9,620...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Worth a look for directional traders, the ZEBRA

ACTUALLY, to catch next ARM earnings, (May08), I would go Apr/May....

Out of the following:

DIS Feb23 110 PUT at $1.32 up from $1.11 average

LVS Feb23 54 PUT at $1.42 up from $1.11

Out of the following:

SPY Mar8 490 PUT at $3.49 up from $1.995

I know I was supposed to keep this to show the weekly chart direction down to around 485 (482 before the chart repainted over the weekend), but it was butting up close to the 5EMA on the weekly chart and, well, a profit is a profit....

Looks like you made you some money on this trade. Good job!

If you haven't already, you may want to get rid of it soon, the chart shows it has done what its gonna do and price is hitting the 5EMA.