Daily GBP/JPY analysis

Quoting cesarnc

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Unless BOJ goes "yooo-whooo" and shoots a 5% hike, there no panic associated.

USD raising rates might weight in the carry trades temporarily, via stock market selling out. But again, USA just got out of "rate cut" sentiment. A hike in the US is now seen for the end of the year only, not THIS WEEK.

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Quoting DutchTrader

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I agree. Without a clear rethinking of BoJ policy nothing will stop us getting to 250, except a Chinese Market meltdown and that contagion spreading.

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Quoting FXStreet

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By Dan Molinski
OF DOW JONES NEWSWIRES


NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The dollar is little changed against most of its rivals early Monday but a bit weaker against the yen amid talk that the Bank of Japan may hike interest rates at a faster pace than what has been expected.

Former Japanese Cabinet member Heizo Takenaka on Monday said the Bank of Japan will likely raise rates by 50 basis points this year if the Liberal Democratic Party keeps control of parliament in next month's election.

Many analysts expect the BOJ to either leave rates on hold throughout 2007, or perhaps lift rates once by 25 basis points, which would put the official rate at 0.75%.

Monday's "comments from Takenaka were a convenient excuse to scale down excess yen offers across the board," said Ashraf Laidi, chief foreign exchange analyst at CMC Markets.

Takenaka's comments come as Japan's low interest rates have encouraged investors to borrow yen and buy higher-yielding assets in other currencies. This speculative carry trade has put downward pressure on the yen and boosted liquidity in markets outside Japan.

The dollar fell to an intra-day low of Y123.31 overnight, its lowest point in four sessions, while the euro also slipped against the yen. But during the New York session both the dollar and the euro have begun to retrace their losses against the yen.

Currency traders now turn their attention to U.S. economic data to steer price action. May's report on existing home sales is due at 10 a.m. EDT is expected to be largely unchanged from April's number.

Early Monday, the euro was trading at $1.3461 from $1.3466 late Friday, while the dollar was at Y123.60 from Y123.79, according to EBS. The euro was at Y166.46 compared with Y166.73 late Friday. The dollar was at CHF1.2291 from CHF1.2288, while the U.K. pound traded at $1.9992 from $1.9989 late Friday.

Also giving the yen a slight boost overnight was the release of the annual report from the Bank for International Settlements, which specifically mentioned yen weakness.

The BIS report said that while large economies with floating exchange rates should continue to allow them to float freely, "there is clearly something anomalous in the ongoing decline in the external value of the yen."

The bank seemed to take issue with the market's general perception that the yen has little chance of strengthening significantly, pointing out that Japan's currency gained 10% in two days in 1998.

But currency analysts at Credit Suisse said the BIS comparison may be off the mark.

"In 1998 the yen sell-off was predicated on an easing of monetary policy," the analysts said in an e-mail. "Today, we see yen weakness generated by the BoJ not hiking rates as fast as the rest of the world and a secular outflow of funds from Japan into higher-yielding assets."

It added: "We therefore remain bearish the yen over three to six months.

Elsewhere, sterling traded above $2.00 against the dollar overnight for the first time since May 1. It reached as high as $2.0006, but has since fallen back slightly below that key level.

The dollar made some gains overnight against the euro despite a stronger-than-expected German report on consumer confidence. The forward-looking consumer climate indicator from research group Gfk rose to 8.4 points for July, beating the market consensus forecast of 8.0 points from a Dow Jones Newswires survey.

The euro dipped to as low as $1.3439 overnight against the greenback but regained its footing early in the New York session.

-By Dan Molinski, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-2245;

[email protected]

(Costas Paris in Singapore and Monica Houston-Waesch in Frankfurt contributed to this report.)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

June 25, 2007 09:00 ET (13:00 GMT)


Copyright 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

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Quoting smikester

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My girlfriend says there will be some retracement at 327.51, before reaching 400 in 2016, with various small retracements on the way. This was not a technical or fundamental calculation, just drawing a few continuation lines on the monthly chart

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Quoting smikester

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My girlfriend says there will be some retracement at 327.51, before reaching 400 in 2016, with various small retracements on the way. This was not a technical or fundamental calculation, just drawing a few continuation lines on the monthly chart

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Quoting Alfa159

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what I wouldn't give the price to go up to 250 now... and than it can retrace to wherever it wants... or can go all the way down to march 5th low 221...

I had to be long when it was 221.

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Quoting wahidshad

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but i think gbp jpy down for long term, and after it go to up

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Quoting smikester

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My girlfriend says there will be some retracement at 327.51, before reaching 400 in 2016, with various small retracements on the way. This was not a technical or fundamental calculation, just drawing a few continuation lines on the monthly chart

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Quoting Alfa159

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So if you buy 100 lots of GBPJPY in 2016 you would have 1.5 million dollars..

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Quoting smikester

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My girlfriend says there will be some retracement at 327.51, before reaching 400 in 2016, with various small retracements on the way. This was not a technical or fundamental calculation, just drawing a few continuation lines on the monthly chart

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Quoting zamans98

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Umm, very comical. But, there was a time when GJ playing 570's in 1980

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Quoting JDP Website

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Statement on the decision by the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates http://www.dpj.or.jp/english/img_common/s.gif On February 21, DPJ Minister of State for Financial Services (Economic and Fiscal Policy) Naoki Minezaki issued the following statement:

Today, in the Bank of Japan's policy board meeting decided by a margin of 8 to 1 to raise interest rates from 0.25% to 0.5%.

Overall, an interest rate raise will have a positive effect for households, but some of those with loans might feel this decision to be harsh. Furthermore, the negative impact on small and medium sized enterprises will be large. With inequalities increasing, the government's economic management has become ever more important.

The Democratic Party of Japan basically respects the judgement of the Bank of Japan. However, in light of the facts that the government's assessment of the economy has not changed and furthermore they have not gone so far as to announce the end of deflation, the Bank of Japan naturally has a responsibility to explain fully to the markets why they have decided to raise interest rates.

Prior to January's policy board meeting, the government and ruling parties carried out political interference that could easily be described as blatant, starting with Secretary General Nakagawa's reference to revising the Bank of Japan Law, and this caused unnecessary confusion in the markets.

On this occasion, this kind of blatant political interference was not outwardly visible, but the DPJ will continue to keep a strict eye on the actions of the government and ruling parties, from the point of view of stressing the independence of the Bank of Japan.

(07/02/21)

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Quoting OrionsWay

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Think u gotta be a seller on the next test of the triple top

sold 247.35 tp 45.90

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Quoting Alfa159

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I rarely trade with the triple top method... How effective is it... Of course I know it cant be perfect but can it be described as a general rule? like shoulder head shoulder method?

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