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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #6,641
  • Jun 25, 2007 10:20am Jun 25, 2007 10:20am
Quoting trader8686
You have just received your wish, atm I am reading your message, GJ up stronger.
well thanx to the UJ it did.UJ hit a resistance at 132.92 and E/J 166.57
I hope they both close over those values for further GJ action towards north

247.29 is the key resistance for GJ...

*they seem to be*
  • #6,642
  • Jun 25, 2007 10:22am Jun 25, 2007 10:22am
Quoting wahidshad
your post is right..

but, g/j start up of 238.~ and now 247.~ its 900 pip.

do you think not back to down and go to up ....
we are having a very bad month for YEN... and the word is Yen is going to get strong in August... not even July... I understand your point... 900 pips up and its time to go down but unfortunately this time it is reluctant to go down.
  • #6,643
  • Jun 25, 2007 10:23am Jun 25, 2007 10:23am
Quoting trader8686
You have just received your wish, atm I am reading your message, GJ up stronger.

no wish, its experiment..
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  • #6,644
  • Jun 25, 2007 10:23am Jun 25, 2007 10:23am
Japanese retail and institutional investors' money will be still coming in...

6/25 Sumitomo Trust Asset Management 100B Yen
6/28 Fidelity Japan 300B Yen

By the way, either the 26th (usually 25th) or the 28th of this month should be a bonus day for most Japanese salaried workers. Now their wives will get the financial source for trading.
  • #6,645
  • Jun 25, 2007 10:27am Jun 25, 2007 10:27am
Quoting ukutrader
Japanese retail and institutional investors' money will be still coming in...

6/25 Sumitomo Trust Asset Management 100B Yen
6/28 Fidelity Japan 300B Yen

By the way, either the 26th (usually 25th) or the 28th of this month should be a bonus day for most Japanese salaried workers. Now their wives will get the financial source for trading.
Aha, here we go again, ride to 124.15 U/J...
  • #6,646
  • Jun 25, 2007 10:28am Jun 25, 2007 10:28am
Quoting ukutrader
Japanese retail and institutional investors' money will be still coming in...

6/25 Sumitomo Trust Asset Management 100B Yen
6/28 Fidelity Japan 300B Yen

By the way, either the 26th (usually 25th) or the 28th of this month should be a bonus day for most Japanese salaried workers. Now their wives will get the financial source for trading.
i am really counting on these wives to buy more Gj, EJ and UJ...
I hope they dont get angry at us and do the opposite than we would be doomed.

btw the pair seems to be a little bit heavy on 247.29 resistance. Hope it doesnt retrace...
  • #6,647
  • Jun 25, 2007 10:28am Jun 25, 2007 10:28am
Quoting ukutrader
Japanese retail and institutional investors' money will be still coming in...

6/25 Sumitomo Trust Asset Management 100B Yen
6/28 Fidelity Japan 300B Yen

By the way, either the 26th (usually 25th) or the 28th of this month should be a bonus day for most Japanese salaried workers. Now their wives will get the financial source for trading.
Are these all for carry trade?
  • #6,648
  • Jun 25, 2007 10:31am Jun 25, 2007 10:31am
Quoting Alfa159
we are having a very bad month for YEN... and the word is Yen is going to get strong in August... not even July... I understand your point... 900 pips up and its time to go down but unfortunately this time it is reluctant to go down.
Hahaha not reluctant to go down. It will drop like a like a stone. Just that as soon as the carry traders see ANY drop they buy. The after effect? Look at the the daily. If today closes up thats 11 days no retrace. All they are doing is buying low selling high. They used to be scatter like roaches do when you turn the lights on with regards to risk. How ever as I see it. The lack of a rates rise from the BoJ's last chit chat. Means they going to milk it for every things it worth till the rate hike arrives and pay less and less attention to what they should deem risk factors. Come the rate hike the Dragons will drop like they've had a stroke in mid flight.

Well thats my 2 yen. And personally I cant wait.
  • #6,649
  • Jun 25, 2007 10:31am Jun 25, 2007 10:31am
Quoting trader8686
Are these all for carry trade?
what else..

E/J, KIWI, Cables and YEN all in the hit list..
  • #6,650
  • Jun 25, 2007 10:34am Jun 25, 2007 10:34am
Quoting DownRiverTrader
http://www.rivertheory.com/storage/gyen6-23-2007.PNG
Do you mind explain it?
  • #6,651
  • Jun 25, 2007 10:34am Jun 25, 2007 10:34am
Quoting Sniper
Hahaha not reluctant to go down. It will drop like a like a stone. Just that as soon as the carry traders see ANY drop they buy. The after effect? Look at the the daily. If today closes up thats 11 days no retrace. All they are doing is buying low selling high. They used to be scatter like roaches do when you turn the lights on with regards to risk. How ever as I see it. The lack of a rates rise from the BoJ's last chit chat. Means they going to milk it for every things it worth till the rate hike arrives and pay less and less attention to what they should deem risk factors. Come the rate hike the Dragons will drop like they've had a stroke in mid flight.

Well thats my 2 yen. And personally I cant wait.
i agree on dropping like stone part... though we did have small retracement today... but i really dont believe the uptrend will be over this week... and if it does i hope i get a very very good sell signal.
  • #6,652
  • Jun 25, 2007 10:34am Jun 25, 2007 10:34am
I see easy pull back to 244.50
  • #6,653
  • Jun 25, 2007 10:36am Jun 25, 2007 10:36am
Yen could also be dropped by risk aversion buying on China Stock's fall today.
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  • #6,654
  • Jun 25, 2007 10:39am Jun 25, 2007 10:39am
Quoting jkdon
I see easy pull back to 244.50
I'm looking at 238 level...

but it will not happen anyway soon, unless China Stock market in RED with 5-10% daily.. then it will happen...
  • #6,655
  • Jun 25, 2007 10:40am Jun 25, 2007 10:40am
Quoting jkdon
I see easy pull back to 244.50

whats your source???
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  • #6,656
  • Jun 25, 2007 10:43am Jun 25, 2007 10:43am
Quoting wahidshad
Yen could also be dropped by risk aversion buying on China Stock's fall today.
Watch the DJIA if that drops in tandem with china then you might. Other wise as I see it they wont care

Quoting Alfa159
i agree on dropping like stone part... though we did have small retracement today... but i really dont believe the uptrend will be over this week... and if it does i hope i get a very very good sell signal.
100 pips is a hiccup IMO. I call anything that hits as low as 243ish a retrace. Should it get there before any rate hikes(or if it around there closer to the rate hikes) then carry should start unwinding as we see some proper risk aversion.
  • #6,657
  • Jun 25, 2007 10:46am Jun 25, 2007 10:46am
Quoting Sniper
Watch the DJIA if that drops in tandem with china then you might. Other wise as I see it they wont care



100 pips is a hiccup IMO. I call anything that hits as low as 243ish a retrace. Should it get there before any rate hikes(or if it around there closer to the rate hikes) then carry should start unwinding as we see some proper risk aversion.
so u say if japan raises their interest rates, carry trade will be slaughtered and this will give way for yen to gain value? did i understand it right?
  • #6,658
  • Jun 25, 2007 10:49am Jun 25, 2007 10:49am
Quoting Alfa159
so u say if japan raises their interest rates, carry trade will be slaughtered and this will give way for yen to gain value? did i understand it right?

As I see it yup. Added to that. Should thing come tumbling down closer to the rate hikes then it will just fuel the fire and the whole thing will just burn to the ground.

But like I always say that's just my 2 yen.
  • #6,659
  • Jun 25, 2007 10:49am Jun 25, 2007 10:49am
Quoting Alfa159
so u say if japan raises their interest rates, carry trade will be slaughtered and this will give way for yen to gain value? did i understand it right?
Unless BOJ goes "yooo-whooo" and shoots a 5% hike, there no panic associated.

USD raising rates might weight in the carry trades temporarily, via stock market selling out. But again, USA just got out of "rate cut" sentiment. A hike in the US is now seen for the end of the year only, not THIS WEEK.
  • #6,660
  • Jun 25, 2007 10:54am Jun 25, 2007 10:54am
Quoting cesarnc
Unless BOJ goes "yooo-whooo" and shoots a 5% hike, there no panic associated.

USD raising rates might weight in the carry trades temporarily, via stock market selling out. But again, USA just got out of "rate cut" sentiment. A hike in the US is now seen for the end of the year only, not THIS WEEK.
Hahaha no I dont think that. What I do think is that we are not dealing with conventional traders here. They don't trade like we do. So I just don't see them caring wether it's %0.25 or %5 I just think they will cash it all in whats left and be left wondering WTF.

On another topic. I always value your input. Anybodies really but yours ranks with me.
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