Little and Often Makes Much

In the past I increased the lots per trade to get the pips... it worked until the Kiwi went on a tear. Ranging markets = GREAT RESULTS... Trending markets = BAD RESULTS.

That being said, as you pointed out I'm purely technical and going against the trend. I have such an issue with trends though. The second I jump on the "trend" it reverses going against me... leading me to believe it wasn't the trend. Someone's "UP" trend is someone elses "DOWN" trend on a another timeframe. I like Jacko's rule of "If the price is higher on the right side of the screen than it is on the left then the trend is UP."

BUT, what happens when the weekly is up, the daily is up but the 4 hr is down? Does that mean the trend is reversing? Is it just a correction? Will it continue to skyrocket because Japanese housewives have enough money to buy the Yen and topple the world banks?

Ugh... How about this... I'll go long on the Yen... and the Kiwi for that matter. Then I'll let everyone know when I buy long so that ALL OF YOU CAN GO SHORT... Lord knows the second I click "BUY" the carry trade unwinds because the moon didn't shine on the right mystic oracle.

Sorry everyone... just venting a little frustration at my apparent unwillingness to listen to reason.

I hear "Follow the trend" and I think "It can't be that simple or everyone would be doing it."

The real lesson I learned this week is that, toward the end of the week I was entering trades pretty much accepting they were losses from the start... the losses got bigger and I started triggering stop losses.

It scares me that I actually put my money on the table KNOWING I was going to lose it.

Hello all,

We are at the close of another week and here’s the most recent weekly update...

This past week of June 17-
8% Win, 1 Win averaging 9 pips, 11 losses averaging 33 pips, Max drawdown of 50

Past weeks:
Week of: June 11 – 25% Win, 1 Win averaging 20 pips, 3 losses averaging 21 pips, Drawdown is MUCH improved at 35 pips
Week of: June 3 – 0% Win, 0 Wins averaging 0 pips, 4 losses averaging an embarrassing 98 pips each, Drawdown of 210 pips
Week of: May 27 – 100% Win, 2 Wins averaging 7 pips, 0 losses (with 2 trades still open), Drawdown of 10
Week of: May 20 – 72% Win, 13 Wins averaging 10 pips, 5 losses average 19, Max Drawdown of 85
Week of: May 13 – 73% Win, 11 Wins averaging 8 pips, 4 losses averaging 17, Max Drawdown of 65
Week of: May 6 – 83% Win, 10 Wins averaging 8 pips, 2 losses averaging 25, Max Drawdown of 45
Week of: Apr 29 – 93% Win, 14 Wins averaging 13 pips, 1 loss for 18, Didn’t track Max Drawdown
Week of: Apr 22 – 90% Win, 10 Wins averaging 8 pips, 1 loss for 17, Didn’t track Max Drawdown

So far that brings the grand totals since April 22nd to:

About 66% win rate... I’ve had 62 wins averaging 10 pips a trade, and 31 losses averaging 36 pips a trade for a total LOSS of 456 pips with an average of losing 52 pips per week since inception.

This week I learned (and plan to improve upon):

This week started easily enough, but by Thursday night I was emotionally beaten and ended up having to use my stop losses to exit trades. The idea of using stop losses as a “backup plan” and not THE exit plan is a good one... one that I’ll keep.

When the week first started I was fairly detached... I traded the system well as I was opening and closing positions without question. By the end of the week however, I knew the system was a loser and it got harder to trade it as I was second-guessing. My goal is the trade the system for a full week before judging... but this one was easy to tell.

As was pointed out earlier in this thread... the system allowed me to trade against the trend. I’ve corrected this for this week by reducing the indicators and by reducing/adjusting the timeframes to eliminate some of the second guessing.

First... I’ve adjusted timeframes to now show daily first, then 4hour, 1hour, 30 min and 15 minute charts. I’ve also expanded the view allowed on both the 30 and 15 minutes as they will be used for entry/exit calls.

Second... as mentioned I’ve reduced the indicators to just two. I’m using RSI and EMA’s only for this week. The biggest change is that I’m using the RSI and its 50 EMA to call the trades. The EMA’s are also still being used on price to determine pip room and will now be used to determine potential consolidation points.

As an example of consolidation points, if the daily, 4 hr and 30 minute charts happen to show an EMA around the same price, then that is a potential consolidation point of support/resistance. It’s an observation that I’ve been observing over the last 6 weeks or so and one I wanted to focus a little more on. This week we’ll put it to paper.

Here’s the plan for this week...

 

1. Trade the system.... no matter what.
2. Keep leverage super small.
3. If the RSI is above its EMA on the daily ONLY TRADE LONG.
4. If the RSI is below its EMA on the daily ONLY TRADE SHORT.
5. Once the RSI/EMA on the 4 hr matches the direction of the Daily the trade window is open.
6. Open the trade when the 30 minute RSI crosses its EMA.
7. Close the trade when pip profit is reached (determined by EMA consolidation points) or when the 15 minute RSI crosses the EMA in the opposite direction of the trade.

This system MAY have a little subjective discretion built in, but if I notice that I’ll try to eliminate it as quickly as possible.

The goal here is to trade only the main trend (as shown by the daily) and still keep the system as mechanical as possible without have to add “interpretation” into the equation.

A ton of these pairs are really looking maxed out and I’m expecting trends to start to reverse on most of the majors this week (Yen & Kiwi pairs in particular). This is purely a guess though. I’m curious to see how well the system does if the trend reverses. It should keep me out of the trade, but I may also open myself to getting chopped.

At this point I have the 1hr on screen, but I’m not using it in anything other than a possible advisor role. As the week goes by I expect I have a better feel for this.

I wanted to also write a very quick note. I’ve learned SO MUCH from FF in the past few months... and I’ve learned EVEN MORE about myself and my own trading since I committed myself to keeping this journal and meticulously tracking my trades daily and weekly. Constantly analyzing trades is one thing... writing them down for yourself (and the world) to see is quite another. If you aren’t journaling your trades... START.

I’m not profitable yet... but I guarantee you I will be. This journal will be my breadcrumb trail of how I get there.

I also wanted to thank those who rated my thread... much appreciated! Thank you also for all the comments... the positive ones are great... the criticisms and challenges are even better. They force me to ask tough questions and learn.

THANK YOU ALL!

i dont know how you are setting up your trades but most of the two low rate currencies the CHF and JPY are the hardest to short. The AUD and NZD are the best to to go long. You go long and set a 1 or 2% stop. It seems like you are trading without any set risk management which is extremely dangerous.

hi...

Prentwo....interesting comments...but how does that help the system that is being traded here...

I like the way Aggie is learning as the weeks go by ...its really the only way..

Hello all,

Here’s the most recent trade I’ve entered:

EUR/USD LONG @ 1.3474


I entered this trade because:
1. Daily ONLY allows LONG trades
2. 4 HR RSI crossed its 50 EMA opening a window for long trades
3. 30 MIN RSI crossed its 50 EMA signaling an OPEN LONG
4. 15 MIN RSI above its 50 EMA confirming the OPEN LONG

I plan on exiting this trade when one of the following happens:

1. 15 MIN RSI crosses below its 50 EMA
2. I’m keeping open the possibility of closing the trade in case of some spike that opens itself to closing with a large pip gain (30+).
3. ONLY as a backup plan I have a FIRM stoploss of 50 pips in place... no trailing stop at this point though I may choose to lock in pips if I’m profitable before a major news announcement.

If the trade is a win:
I will analyze specifically what went right and look for a similar setup.

If the trade is a loss:
I will analyze specifically what went wrong and take steps to address it before attempting another trade.

If the trade goes sideways:
I will stay in until one of my exit plans (preferably option 1) is triggered. All trades will be closed by the weekend and depending upon the expected news I may close before a news announcement (or at least lock in small profit if possible with moving the stop).

This trade occurred at: 0900 EST, June 25th 2007



OPEN POSISTIONS (Including above trades):

EUR/USD LONG @ 1.3474


CLOSED POSISTIONS (for week of June 25)

*** NONE ***




(From left to right: DAILY, 4HR, 1HR, 30M, 15M)

Thanks for the encouragment Angler... as for Prentwos' orginal comments...

Yeah... I'm sure they are hard to short, but the goal isn't to use fundamental analysis... it's the use a technical system and learn to trade from that. The risk management is there, as I'm not cocky enough to believe the system has merit until it proves itself (and so keep the $/pip very low). Though I'm trading real money... I'm not leveraging enough to have a 300 pip loss (or gain for that matter) dent my account one way or another.

The point of this, as Angler recognized, is to build this system and the trading skills necessary to trade it... step by sometimes painful step!

As always, I appreciate any and all comments... good... bad... or indifferent.

Hello all,

Here’s the most recent trade I’ve entered:

GPB/CHF SHORT @ 2.4532


I entered this trade because:
1. Daily ONLY allows SHORT trades
2. 4 HR RSI crossed its 50 EMA opening a window for long trades
3. 30 MIN RSI crossed its 50 EMA signaling an OPEN SHORT
4. 15 MIN RSI above its 50 EMA confirming the OPEN SHORT

I plan on exiting this trade when one of the following happens:

1. 15 MIN RSI crosses below its 50 EMA
2. I’m keeping open the possibility of closing the trade in case of some spike that opens itself to closing with a large pip gain (30+).
3. ONLY as a backup plan I have a FIRM stoploss of 50 pips in place... no trailing stop at this point though I may choose to lock in pips if I’m profitable before a major news announcement.

If the trade is a win:
I will analyze specifically what went right and look for a similar setup.

If the trade is a loss:
I will analyze specifically what went wrong and take steps to address it before attempting another trade.

If the trade goes sideways:
I will stay in until one of my exit plans (preferably option 1) is triggered. All trades will be closed by the weekend and depending upon the expected news I may close before a news announcement (or at least lock in small profit if possible with moving the stop).

This trade occurred at: 1000 EST, June 25th 2007



OPEN POSISTIONS (Including above trades):

EUR/USD LONG @ 1.3474
GPB/CHF SHORT @ 2.4532


CLOSED POSISTIONS (for week of June 25)

*** NONE ***




(From left to right: DAILY, 4HR, 1HR, 30M, 15M)

Hello all,

Here’s the most recent trade I’ve CLOSED:

EUR/USD LONG @ 1.3474; CLOSED @ 1.3464 (10 pip loss)

I entered this trade because:
1. Daily ONLY allows LONG trades
2. 4 HR RSI crossed its 50 EMA opening a window for long trades
3. 30 MIN RSI crossed its 50 EMA signaling an OPEN LONG
4. 15 MIN RSI above its 50 EMA confirming the OPEN LONG

I plan on exiting this trade when one of the following happens:

1. 15 MIN RSI crosses below its 50 EMA
2. I’m keeping open the possibility of closing the trade in case of some spike that opens itself to closing with a large pip gain (30+).
3. ONLY as a backup plan I have a FIRM stoploss of 50 pips in place... no trailing stop at this point though I may choose to lock in pips if I’m profitable before a major news announcement.

I actually exited this trade because:
1. 15M RSI crossed its 50 EMA


This trade opened at approximately: 0900 EST, June 25th, 2007
This trade closed at approximately: 1045 EST, June 25th, 2007
Approximate trade duration: 1.75 hours

OPEN POSISTIONS (Including above trades):

GPB/CHF SHORT @ 2.4532

CLOSED POSISTIONS (for week of June 25)

EUR/USD LONG @ 1.3474; CLOSED @ 1.3464 (10 pip loss)


This trade was a LOSS and here are my current thoughts:
To early to call the system a loser... would’ve liked a win though!


(From left to right: Daily, 4H, 1H, 30M, 15M)

Hello all,

Here’s the most recent trade I’ve CLOSED:

GPB/CHF SHORT @ 2.4532; CLOSED @ 2.4564 (32 pip LOSS)


I entered this trade because:
1. Daily ONLY allows SHORT trades
2. 4 HR RSI crossed its 50 EMA opening a window for long trades
3. 30 MIN RSI crossed its 50 EMA signaling an OPEN SHORT
4. 15 MIN RSI above its 50 EMA confirming the OPEN SHORT

I plan on exiting this trade when one of the following happens:

1. 15 MIN RSI crosses below its 50 EMA
2. I’m keeping open the possibility of closing the trade in case of some spike that opens itself to closing with a large pip gain (30+).
3. ONLY as a backup plan I have a FIRM stoploss of 50 pips in place... no trailing stop at this point though I may choose to lock in pips if I’m profitable before a major news announcement.

I actually exited this trade because:
1. 15M RSI crossed its 50 EMA


This trade opened at approximately: 1000 EST, June 25th, 2007
This trade closed at approximately: 1100 EST, June 25th, 2007
Approximate trade duration: 1 hour

OPEN POSISTIONS (Including above trades):

*** NONE ***

CLOSED POSISTIONS (for week of June 25)

EUR/USD LONG @ 1.3474; CLOSED @ 1.3464 (10 pip loss)
GPB/CHF SHORT @ 2.4532; CLOSED @ 2.4564 (32 pip LOSS)


This trade was a LOSS and here are my current thoughts:
Another loss... quick as the last one. Still too early to call a pattern to the systems results though... I won’t do that for about 10 trades or so. So far... I’m just 0 for 2!


(From left to right: Daily, 4H, 1H, 30M, 15M)

AggieTrader,

Just an observation-all of the trades you entered on pairs I'm familiar with were against the overall trend e.g. anything/jpy up, nzd/usd up, you went short on all those. Being in line with the daily trend could change your results considerably.
Just a thought.

Thanks Mike... I agree and have adjusted the system (the one that started this week) by adding a daily trend indicator to keep me out of going against any main trend.

We'll see how the adjustment fairs... thanks for the comment!

Hello all,

Here’s the most recent trade I’ve entered:

GPB/CHF SHORT @ 2.4531


I entered this trade because:
1. Daily ONLY allows SHORT trades
2. 4 HR RSI crossed its 50 EMA opening a window for long trades
3. 30 MIN RSI crossed its 50 EMA signaling an OPEN SHORT
4. 15 MIN RSI above its 50 EMA confirming the OPEN SHORT

I plan on exiting this trade when one of the following happens:

1. 15 MIN RSI crosses below its 50 EMA
2. ONLY as a backup plan I have a FIRM stoploss of 50 pips in place... no trailing stop at this point though I may choose to lock in pips if I’m profitable before a major news announcement.

If the trade is a win:
I will analyze specifically what went right and look for a similar setup.

If the trade is a loss:
I will analyze specifically what went wrong and take steps to address it before attempting another trade.

If the trade goes sideways:
I will stay in until one of my exit plans (preferably option 1) is triggered. All trades will be closed by the weekend and depending upon the expected news I may close before a news announcement (or at least lock in small profit if possible with moving the stop).

This trade occurred at: 1500 EST, June 25th 2007



OPEN POSISTIONS (Including above trades):

GPB/CHF SHORT @ 2.4531


CLOSED POSISTIONS (for week of June 25)

EUR/USD LONG @ 1.3474; CLOSED @ 1.3464 (10 pip loss)
GPB/CHF SHORT @ 2.4532; CLOSED @ 2.4564 (32 pip LOSS)




(From left to right: DAILY, 4HR, 1HR, 30M, 15M)

Hello all,

Here’s the most recent trade I’ve CLOSED:

GPB/CHF SHORT @ 2.4532; CLOSED @ 2.4551 (19 pip loss)

I entered this trade because:
1. Daily ONLY allows SHORT trades
2. 4 HR RSI crossed its 50 EMA opening a window for long trades
3. 30 MIN RSI crossed its 50 EMA signaling an OPEN SHORT
4. 15 MIN RSI above its 50 EMA confirming the OPEN SHORT

I plan on exiting this trade when one of the following happens:

1. 15 MIN RSI crosses below its 50 EMA
2. ONLY as a backup plan I have a FIRM stoploss of 50 pips in place... no trailing stop at this point though I may choose to lock in pips if I’m profitable before a major news announcement.

I actually exited this trade because:
1. 15M RSI crossed its 50 EMA


This trade opened at approximately: 1500 EST, June 25th, 2007
This trade closed at approximately: 1700 EST, June 25th, 2007
Approximate trade duration: 3 hours

OPEN POSISTIONS (Including above trades):

*** NONE ***

CLOSED POSISTIONS (for week of June 25)

EUR/USD LONG @ 1.3474; CLOSED @ 1.3464 (10 pip loss)
GPB/CHF SHORT @ 2.4532; CLOSED @ 2.4564 (32 pip LOSS)
GPB/CHF SHORT @ 2.4532; CLOSED @ 2.4551 (19 pip loss)


This trade was a LOSS and here are my current thoughts:
I’m not trading this pair again (and deleting it from my platform). It has a 12 pip spread and it’s just too much to absorb.

(From left to right: Daily, 4H, 1H, 30M, 15M)

how it helps here is his risk management he is closing out losing positions at different levels. I don't know how many lots he is is using on a particular trade. naturally the more lots used then he should have a smaller stop loss. i dont know what signals he is using to enter his trades but he was trading against the trends in most of the trades i read. the jpy trades always unravel quickly because no one wants to short them and be wrong and pay interest on a losing position, but if you go long you can have a losing position and still be making money, like earning dividends from stocks. All im saying is he needs to have some type of risk management. I trade often as well but each position has only 1% per trade. Depending on the set up, resistance levels or news release or etc i will places more lots on the trade and set my stop loss based on that. If the trade goes against me i only lost 1% if it goes in my favor i can close out some lots or i can move my stop loss up. You should not be closing trades without letting it hit your stop or hitting a tp because it seems like you are emotionally closing out trades. You were 80% winninng earlier so you obviously had something going on. keep it up

Hello all,

Here’s the most recent trade I’ve entered:

USD/JPY SHORT @ 123.95

I entered this trade because:
1. Daily ONLY allows SHORT trades
2. 4 HR RSI crossed its 50 EMA opening a window for SHORT trades
3. 15 MIN RSI above its 50 EMA confirming the OPEN SHORT

I plan on exiting this trade when one of the following happens:

1. 30 MIN RSI crosses ABOVE its 50 EMA
2. ONLY as a backup plan I have a FIRM stoploss of 50 pips in place... no trailing stop at this point though I may choose to lock in pips if I’m profitable before a major news announcement.

If the trade is a win:
I will analyze specifically what went right and look for a similar setup.

If the trade is a loss:
I will analyze specifically what went wrong and take steps to address it before attempting another trade.

If the trade goes sideways:
I will stay in until one of my exit plans (preferably option 1) is triggered. All trades will be closed by the weekend and depending upon the expected news I may close before a news announcement (or at least lock in small profit if possible with moving the stop).

This trade occurred at: 0845 EST, June 26th 2007



OPEN POSISTIONS (Including above trades):

USD/JPY SHORT @ 123.95

CLOSED POSISTIONS (for week of June 25)

EUR/USD LONG @ 1.3474; CLOSED @ 1.3464 (10 pip loss)
GPB/CHF SHORT @ 2.4532; CLOSED @ 2.4564 (32 pip LOSS)
GPB/CHF SHORT @ 2.4532; CLOSED @ 2.4551 (19 pip loss)

(From left to right: DAILY, 4HR, 1HR, 30M, 15M)

Hello all,

Here’s the most recent trade I’ve CLOSED:

USD/JPY SHORT @ 122.95; CLOSED @ 123.45 (50 pip loss)

I entered this trade because:
1. Daily ONLY allows SHORT trades
2. 4 HR RSI crossed its 50 EMA opening a window for SHORT trades
3. 15 MIN RSI above its 50 EMA confirming the OPEN SHORT

I plan on exiting this trade when one of the following happens:

1. 30 MIN RSI crosses ABOVE its 50 EMA
2. ONLY as a backup plan I have a FIRM stoploss of 50 pips in place... no trailing stop at this point though I may choose to lock in pips if I’m profitable before a major news announcement.

I actually exited this trade because:
1. Stoploss triggered at 50 pips.


This trade opened at approximately: 0845 EST, June 26th 2007
This trade closed at approximately: 1200 EST, June 26th, 2007
Approximate trade duration: 3.25 hours

OPEN POSISTIONS (Including above trades):

*** NONE ***

CLOSED POSISTIONS (for week of June 25)

EUR/USD LONG @ 1.3474; CLOSED @ 1.3464 (10 pip loss)
GPB/CHF SHORT @ 2.4532; CLOSED @ 2.4564 (32 pip LOSS)
GPB/CHF SHORT @ 2.4532; CLOSED @ 2.4551 (19 pip loss)
USD/JPY SHORT @ 122.95; CLOSED @ 123.45 (50 pip loss)



This trade was a LOSS and here are my current thoughts:
I entered this prematurely as I was afraid of missing a big move down. Had I waited for the actual 30/15 confirm I would’ve stayed out of this trade entirely. As it stand I overrode the system on entry AND the exit and was only taken out by my 50 pip stop. I STILL believe in the general direction of the trade... but really blew this entry.

(From left to right: Daily, 4H, 1H, 30M, 15M)

I'm focusing on this USD/YEN pair right now... here's the setup I'm looking at. Just waiting on the entry to go short (until the 4hr cross closes the open window).

(From left to right: Daily, 4H, 1H, 30M, 15M)

Hello all,

Here’s the most recent trade I’ve entered:

USD/JPY SHORT @ 123.12

I entered this trade because:
1. Daily ONLY allows SHORT trades
2. 4 HR RSI crossed its 50 EMA opening a window for SHORT trades
3. 30 MIN RSI above its 50 EMA confirming the OPEN SHORT

I plan on exiting this trade when one of the following happens:

1. 15 MIN RSI crosses ABOVE its 50 EMA
2. ONLY as a backup plan I have a FIRM stoploss of 50 pips in place... no trailing stop at this point though I may choose to lock in pips if I’m profitable before a major news announcement.

If the trade is a win:
I will analyze specifically what went right and look for a similar setup.

If the trade is a loss:
I will analyze specifically what went wrong and take steps to address it before attempting another trade.

If the trade goes sideways:
I will stay in until one of my exit plans (preferably option 1) is triggered. All trades will be closed by the weekend and depending upon the expected news I may close before a news announcement (or at least lock in small profit if possible with moving the stop).

This trade occurred at: 1830 EST, June 26th 2007



OPEN POSISTIONS (Including above trades):

USD/JPY SHORT @ 123.12


CLOSED POSISTIONS (for week of June 25)

EUR/USD LONG @ 1.3474; CLOSED @ 1.3464 (10 pip loss)
GPB/CHF SHORT @ 2.4532; CLOSED @ 2.4564 (32 pip LOSS)
GPB/CHF SHORT @ 2.4532; CLOSED @ 2.4551 (19 pip loss)
USD/JPY SHORT @ 122.95; CLOSED @ 123.45 (50 pip loss)


(From left to right: DAILY, 4HR, 1HR, 30M, 15M)

Don't mean to contradict you in any way, but I'd like to point something out. At no point during the day, at least on the Oanda platform, did USD/JPY reach 124. The range for the day was about 123.5 at around midnight... to around 122.8 at the low of the day. I can't do a screenshot (new O/S, don't know how!), but if you go to http://fxtrade.oanda.com you should be able to see on the 30 min chart the day's range.

Where do you get your charting from? Or is that just a typo?