Volume Profile, Supply/Demand, entry levels

USD CAD

1.2820/2840 area provides demand stopping the move down from 1.32
There has been a quick move towards the 1.28 to reach as low as 1.2770 but price was quickly rejected


zooming IN, I see there's a clear attempt to hold the support with a 2 days consolidation above the 2820-2840
Important key level becomes the 1.2800 (monday's POC)


The instrument is highly correlated with OIL. If OIL will go lower and breake the 90 key level (probable for what I see) there will certainly be a push up in USD CAD to approach 1.29

Today + tomorrow there are important data both for USD and CAD.
If everything correlates (OIL down + USD stronger or stable + CAD weaker) we'll see this price 300pips higher by the end of the week.

On the other side, in case of failure of everything, price could move far lower to approach 1.26 and 1.25 areas

SO

I bought it 1.2840 with a tight stop 1.2790 and target 1.31
A small position to be increased step by step IF and WHEN fundamentals correlate.

more details

if I see a bearish breake of the lower orange area (2820/40) I will cut the long trade no matter what, and wait to see if another setup appears
For the bullish side, a breake above the 1.2850 would be a good sign of bullishness to reach at least again the 1.29


1.2900 is current week high
1.2930 is monthly pivot + last week's high
1.2980 is key level before the 1.30

OIL still bouncing on 90
nearest resistance is (for what I see) previous support 92/93 area

I hope it will finally breake down and stop this madness
Maybe we'll have to wait a bit more.....

At this moment, reaction near 90 is a complete different version compared with previous low the 14th July.

Holding my trade in usd cad since not clear breakout of support area 2820/40.

Ok things look better.
Moving stop @be.

If 2850 is conquered by bulls will be protected so any move lower could mean supply overcomes and I don't want to find me in loss.

Missed my stop by less than 1 pip.
Been lucky

what's going on ???
started so well.
The resonance of traders with a market profile is not as strong in FF.

I simply have no time to keep posting.. Was and still I’m very busy. Too much maybe.
Also trading via tablet makes the posting thing even less simple.
In the meanwhile I completed furthermore my whole strategy.
And trading only oil and cable.

Here’s oil h1 chart


I can read on it at least 3 good trades.
That s it for the moment

Next step requires AI.

So from this post I will start back sharing ideas.
in last months I tried to figure out how to improve entries, minimising risk to avoid huge drawdowns.
Implementing volume profile is essential to me, since gives me a clear view on where are main sup/res for the instrument.

Chart below is most recent oil 15min.

Volume profile on the left is measuring most recent uptrend
there a some key points
1. Price printed a clear LL-LH structure. I didn’t notice it indeed at point 2
2. I had the wrong perception price was bouncing to go back above the 77. The support was correct indeed but the perception was completely wrong. Indeed got a loss (luckily recovered almost immediately)
3. After breaking directly below the POC, and trying to stabilise there, price fell to the low where atm found support.

this, is the key reaction of price during the breakout of that temporary support right below the PoC seen in last post


this is the kind of treaded I will be looking for.
once price finds a clear sup/res, there will be certain 100% this kind of reaction be it up or down depending the side of the b/o.

in the 1m timeframe, I still use the ema but I don’t really have a reason for that, probably I will screw them soon.

After that, price found support (was the 3 in the post above seen from main picture)

1. Shown a buy opportunity to follow the bounce on support
2. Price reached previous hourly low, near ema200. Not simple to enter short honestly, because the push from the support could have sent it higher.
3. Here price shown good short setup.

Oil next week
right below closing price is important support where price found demand to go till the 79.
above, as noted in previous posts there are nice key levels to watch.

I’m not planning anything.
at this particular step in price , I want to see a reaction in the support. Be it a bullish reaction or a no reaction so a breakout time will tell.

Usdjpy

there is potential to get back near 150.
will check it deeper before new week starts, there could be some interesting swing and scalp opportunities in this instrument.
NFP sent it higher from support, that’s pretty clear



adding this h1 view as a reminder of what happens when price developing a bullish reaction into a support
also as a reminder of the importance of minor levels below actual price 148 147,50 and 147.



will be waiting those areas to look for bullish reactions to try target near 150
or eventually a direct b/o into the 149 area
if none of these will appear, it will be probably possible to look for shorts near 150

Today’s Eur usd
as a reminder setup

Today's usd jpy
as a reminder setup

Suppport building on cable

Later

Targets
1. My initial target
2. Where I accepted to tp
not simple decision btw.

I have to work on improve my focus, and my strength.
Today will not be trading and working on charts setup and readings.
I feel I reached a step where will hardly be possible to read markets better than this.

few years ago would not even dreamt something so precise and harmonic.

I now have to defeat the inner beast, and forget about the “it’s going here - it’s going there” bullshit.
Have to improve the “trade what you see, not what you think” thing.

yesterday could have earned a million.

Great thread, subscribed