Summer months trading ranges

Hello everyone,


Seems like the Forex market is getting ready for the imminent summer period. We all love to take a break in summer, or at least to slow down a tad. And so do the markets.


At the end of each month I take some statistical notes for my own analysis. One of them is the Average Daily Range for each currency pair for the previous month. Well, I am noticing a sharp ADR-decline across the board. Summer months are prone to range-bound conditions, thin volume and weaker levels of support/resistance. Perhaps we should add to the list the blatantly-tighter trading ranges?


Have a look at look at the data posted down below. In this list, I compare June 2007’s Average Daily Range with the data I collected three months ago (meaning March 2007). The results speak for themselves:

1. EURUSD: 58 pips in June vs. 72 pips in March.
2. GBPUSD: 82 pips in June vs. 121 pips in March.
3. USDJPY: 60 pips in June vs. 124 pips in March (massive drop!)
4. USDCHF: 59 pips in June vs. 94 in March.
5. AUDUSD: 56 pips in June vs. 62 pips in March.
6. USDCAD: 81 pips in June vs. 67 pips in March (ADR has increased)
7. EURJPY: 93 pips in June vs. 154 pips in March (massive drop!)
8. NZDUSD: 69 pips in June vs. 88 pips in March.
9. GBPJPY: 139 pips in June vs. 285 pips in March (massive drop!)
10. EURCHF: 56 pips in June vs. 71 pips in March.
11. GBPCHF: 106 pips in June vs. 145 pips in March.
12. EURGBP: 24 pips in June vs. 37 pips in March.

As you can see, there’s been quite a significant drop in the market activity as of lately. Oh well, seems like the summer is finally here!


Now, if I could just remember where the hell I left my swimmers…

LOL, looks like traders in Canada don't give a damn whether it's summer or not

Anyway, thank's for detailed analysis. I will be sure to adjust to these conditions before it's too late

Nice work WTB.

Nice cannonball too!

It's not a matter of summer
In June 2006 for eg GBP range was 145 vs June 2007 = 89 pips only in 16 days, so it's not a matter of summer, who can believe that during the last 16 days in June 2007, cable only reached more than 100 pips twice, and on the otherside in June 2006 in 22 days cable couldn't reach 100 pips 6 times only, and the rest of the month over 100 pips including 4 times over 200 pips a day.