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The Bat...a strategy by Team Aphid

  • #681
  • Jun 23, 2007 4:47am Jun 23, 2007 4:47am
Quoting Pipskateer
Hello Team Aphid!

Wow! Just finished reading this thread and it is very impressive what you folks have done here! Just wanted to add my thanks to you as well.

In my study of your system, I noticed something which may fall into the category of "If it ain't broke, don't FIX it!" or perhaps a splitting of hairs, but here goes....

I notice that in your instructional PDF on post #35, you say to label the fibo levels as follows:

LEVEL 0.000 - Description: "Swing"
LEVEL 0.382 - Description: "38.2 - 2 lots"
LEVEL 0.618 - Description: "61.8 - 1 lot"
LEVEL 1.000 - Description: "Enter - 1 lot"
LEVEL 1.618 - Description: "161.8"

Please correct me if I am wrong, but I do not believe this Fibo label setup is correct. It appears to me that your Fibo retracements are displayed backwards. The retrace levels of 38.2 and 61.8 should be shown as a percent of the total price move from SWING to ENTRY (BAT line break). Logically then, shouldn't a 38.2% retrace occur before a 61.8% retrace? The way you currently show them puts a 61.8% retrace AHEAD of a 38.2% retrace which I do not believe is correct or logical.

Unless I am missing something and am totally off-base, then I suggest the following labels and changes to drawing the Fibos:

LEVEL 0.000 - Description: "Enter - 1 lot"
LEVEL 0.382 - Description: "38.2 - 2 lots"
LEVEL 0.618 - Description: "61.8 - 1 lot"
LEVEL 1.000 - Description: "Swing"
LEVEL -0.618 - Description: "-61.8"

The "Swing" needs to be at level 1.000 because if price retraced back to that level, it would represent a 100% Fibo retrace. The touch of the BAT line (trade #1 entry) should be at the 0.000 level. Also, you show level 1.618 which I believe should instead be level -0.618 (but should be labeled +61.8%) which represents an ADVANCE of 61.8% past the entry point in the desired direction of the trade. The final thing should be to make sure to always draw the Fibos starting from the SWING point and move up or down to the ENTRY point. This will ensure that your fibo retracements are always displayed in the correct direction.

Again, this may seem irrelevant or like "splitting hairs" to some and if the current method of labeling is working for you, then don't change anything. I just wanted everyone to be on the same page with the Fibo's and again, if I have missed something, then please feel free to correct MY logic.

Assuming that I am correct with this, I wonder what effect it may have on backtesting results, if any?

Thanks again TA for allowing us to use THE BAT! I hope to start demo trading it this Monday.

P.S. I've attached a couple of charts to show what I'm speaking about.
Hi Pipskateer

In my opinion if you put 2 Lots on Fib level 0,382 and the system fails, you will have extremely high drawdown risk.

I use this method for my live trading and there is a lot of false crosses.

Try forwartest and post here your results.
  • #682
  • Jun 23, 2007 9:51am Jun 23, 2007 9:51am
Quoting rosso832
Hi Pipskateer

In my opinion if you put 2 Lots on Fib level 0,382 and the system fails, you will have extremely high drawdown risk.

I use this method for my live trading and there is a lot of false crosses.

Try forwartest and post here your results.


Hi Rosso,

I just requoted what the TA PDF document already said to use for the amount of lots to open on Fib level 0.382. Perhaps TA might advise 2 lots being opened on the 0.618 level instead of 0.382 once the levels are shown in their proper fibo order.

My main concern was that the 0.618 and 0.382 fibos are apparently being drawn in reverse order. Actually, the levels themselves are correct, but perhaps just need to be labeled in reverse to compensate. Left as is, this issue may present more problems for the EA developers, but I just wanted to point it out here in case it might have some bearing on profit outcomes for those who are only using the indicator.
  • #683
  • Jun 23, 2007 9:56pm Jun 23, 2007 9:56pm
Hi Pipskateer,

Thanks for warning us. In terms of labelling, what you indicate is correct, therefore fibos should be drawn by starting from swing low/high. But then, we should open 1 lot at 0.382 and 2 lots at 0.618 to keep the original rules in place. Therefore, there will be no difference in backtest results.

Thanks again for pointing out this issue.

Best Regards,


Quoting Pipskateer
Hi Rosso,

I just requoted what the TA PDF document already said to use for the amount of lots to open on Fib level 0.382. Perhaps TA might advise 2 lots being opened on the 0.618 level instead of 0.382 once the levels are shown in their proper fibo order.

My main concern was that the 0.618 and 0.382 fibos are apparently being drawn in reverse order. Actually, the levels themselves are correct, but perhaps just need to be labeled in reverse to compensate. Left as is, this issue may present more problems for the EA developers, but I just wanted to point it out here in case it might have some bearing on profit outcomes for those who are only using the indicator.
  • #684
  • Jul 3, 2007 3:06pm Jul 3, 2007 3:06pm
Hi Team Aphid and thanks for a great system, when trading the 1 hour GBP/JPY have you tried using the 4 hour GBP/JPY and 1 hour GBP Bat ATR's as filters? i.e. only trade in the same direction as the 4 hour GBP/JPY and current 1 hour GBP Bat ATR's?... ...

thanks, Peter.
  • #685
  • Jul 3, 2007 7:20pm Jul 3, 2007 7:20pm
We haven't tested it properly, but if you use 4 hour GBPJPY direction, you will have more lagging effect on your trades. It may filter some bad ones, but should be tested properly before reaching any conclusion. Thanks for the input.


Quoting petersurrey
Hi Team Aphid and thanks for a great system, when trading the 1 hour GBP/JPY have you tried using the 4 hour GBP/JPY and 1 hour GBP Bat ATR's as filters? i.e. only trade in the same direction as the 4 hour GBP/JPY and current 1 hour GBP Bat ATR's?... ...

thanks, Peter.
  • #686
  • Aug 26, 2007 12:15am Aug 26, 2007 12:15am
Based on your experience this system works best with wich pairs?
The more obstacles I overcome the better man I become.
  • #687
  • Aug 27, 2007 3:50pm Aug 27, 2007 3:50pm
  •  Carlos
  • | Joined Sep 2005 | Status: Commitment, planning and discipline | 65 Posts
Hello team Aphid,

i am thinking of making a couple of changes to the your sytem, firstly i am putting the stop 5 pips above or below the 61.8 retracement level (or 32% as in the pdf). Then for entry the price must break the high or low of the candle that breaks the ATR line by 5 pips. This keeps us out of many of the choppy trades.

Two contract as entered, one is exited at the 1.44 extension (this is not calculated from the low or high to the bat line, but from the low or high to the low or high of the candle that breaks the BAT line). Once the 1.44 is hit half the trade is taken off at this level and the stop is moved to B/E. The second contract is either exited at B/E or at teh BAT line.

This i beleive improves risk to reward while alo keeping us out of the bad choppy trades. by taking off one contract at the 1.44 means we can still profit in sideways makets. i'll do testing on this but would like to hear your views also.



Cheers Charlie
  • #688
  • Aug 27, 2007 3:56pm Aug 27, 2007 3:56pm
Hi Charlie
Your change sounds interesting.
Have you by any chance done any backtesting with your theory or is your comment from just eyeballing the losing trades? I look forward to seeing your tests.
I won't make further comment until I do a few eyeballs but your changes do seem to address the areas of concern that the BAT system has.
Cheers
  • #689
  • Aug 27, 2007 4:30pm Aug 27, 2007 4:30pm
Hi Charlie

Just to confirm and throw in a visual.

Your change includes not taking any retracement trades. Fair enough as your later entry will probably make this less feasible.

Of course the trade off is that there will be less negative trades.

Does this chart confirm your changes?
Attached Image
  • #690
  • Aug 27, 2007 4:40pm Aug 27, 2007 4:40pm
Could it be possible to wait for a close of a bar for entry that is 5 pips below the hi or low of the breaking bar???
Could this be another option and maybe protect from nasty little price spikes?
See chart.
Attached Image
  • #691
  • Aug 29, 2007 3:47pm Aug 29, 2007 3:47pm
Quoting Antra
Could it be possible to wait for a close of a bar for entry that is 5 pips below the hi or low of the breaking bar???
Could this be another option and maybe protect from nasty little price spikes?
See chart.
Hi I've taken over 1000 pips out of GBP/JPY using 1hr chart BAT system in the last 2 weeks

However I only trade 1 lot and only enter on the next candle after the first touch unless the breaking candle is very large I do not trade. Also after 80 pips profit I lock in trade for +10 pips, thereafter its a free ride.

If it takes more than 5 hours (5 candles) to trade higher/lower than the first candle that touches the BAT bar I stay away until the next signal.

Have a look at the 1 hour chart on the GBP/JPY.

I trail the stop 100 behind until the BAT trailing loss line has 300 pips locked in, this way it lets the trade breath and expand to maximise your return

I've been trading on and off for years and this is by far the best I've encountered and its very simple. Only 1 hour chart remember.

Regards
Dave
  • #692
  • Aug 29, 2007 4:11pm Aug 29, 2007 4:11pm
Rumbey,

Amazing results. Are you trading manually, or using the BAT EA? If so, what version and what are the settings?
  • #693
  • Aug 29, 2007 10:13pm Aug 29, 2007 10:13pm
WOW.

what are the setings your using?

I made a change to the ATRPeriod and Factor and have got excellent results. It's very good. But when I change the settings in the EA it doesn't work it doesn't trigger the orders. May be some one can help.
The more obstacles I overcome the better man I become.
  • #694
  • Aug 30, 2007 8:36pm Aug 30, 2007 8:36pm
  •  Carlos
  • | Joined Sep 2005 | Status: Commitment, planning and discipline | 65 Posts
Sound good guys but the only thing i would say is test test and test more.........

I'm still working on this BAT system... i've spend hrs testing 18 months of GBP trades now moving on to EURJPY.... after this i'll test another 12 months for each of these currency pairs.. and only after this will i trade it...

I suggest everyone tests their ideas and then perhaps we can move forward with a better system, otherwise its an idea and nothing else.. i wouldn't even trade it with your money!
  • #695
  • Aug 31, 2007 6:42pm Aug 31, 2007 6:42pm
Quoting Carlos
Sound good guys but the only thing i would say is test test and test more.........

I'm still working on this BAT system... i've spend hrs testing 18 months of GBP trades now moving on to EURJPY.... after this i'll test another 12 months for each of these currency pairs.. and only after this will i trade it...

I suggest everyone tests their ideas and then perhaps we can move forward with a better system, otherwise its an idea and nothing else.. i wouldn't even trade it with your money!

Just totalled up August pips using my simple BAT ATR v1 period 5 factor 3.9.

Up 2554 pips if this current trade closes on its current BAT line. Total of 8 trades, 3 closed at Breakeven + one at amazing trade = 1589 pips :-)

I use an initial 100 pip stop loss and move to Breakeven or +10 pips after price moves 80 (include spread)

I only use a 1 hour chart now as I used to have multiple charts up to confirm trend etc but it was confusing.
  • #696
  • Aug 31, 2007 8:05pm Aug 31, 2007 8:05pm
Quoting rumbey
Up 2554 pips if this current trade closes on its current BAT line. Total of 8 trades, 3 closed at Breakeven + one at amazing trade = 1589 pips :-)

I use an initial 100 pip stop loss and move to Breakeven or +10 pips after price moves 80 (include spread)
Only on GBPJY ? I can't believe it !

Can you show us a report of opened & closed trades ? Please
  • #697
  • Sep 2, 2007 4:20am Sep 2, 2007 4:20am
Quoting funyoo
Only on GBPJY ? I can't believe it !

Can you show us a report of opened & closed trades ? Please
Hi I'm not divulging my private financial information. Just set BAT up on the 1 Hour chart and take a look yourself

I now have an email alert that goes to my mobile phone as a text sms message when the price gets within 50 pips of a possible reversal bat line. This should reduce the amount of time I spend on this system, so I can enjoy a bit of free time.

No system to me is worth being tied to the computer screen 24/7.
  • #698
  • Sep 3, 2007 4:54am Sep 3, 2007 4:54am
Quoting rumbey
Hi I'm not divulging my private financial information. Just set BAT up on the 1 Hour chart and take a look yourself

I now have an email alert that goes to my mobile phone as a text sms message when the price gets within 50 pips of a possible reversal bat line. This should reduce the amount of time I spend on this system, so I can enjoy a bit of free time.

No system to me is worth being tied to the computer screen 24/7.
See this post :

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...3&postcount=21

I don't find such results with the manual BAT system on GBPJPY.

That's why I don't see how you can get 2554 pips... can you tell us what is your time slot and your broker ?
  • #699
  • Sep 3, 2007 1:26pm Sep 3, 2007 1:26pm
Quoting funyoo
See this post :

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...3&postcount=21

I don't find such results with the manual BAT system on GBPJPY.

That's why I don't see how you can get 2554 pips... can you tell us what is your time slot and your broker ?
Setting on 1 hour chart only 5 and 3.9. Only enter on the next candle after the first candle has pierced the BAT line
  • #700
  • Sep 4, 2007 4:22am Sep 4, 2007 4:22am
Closed my long (230.93) at 232.45 reversed short. Profit from last trade = 152 pips

Just on hourly chart
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