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Paul Craig Roberts: RIP, The Western World
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BY TYLER DURDEN
SUNDAY, JAN 28, 2024 - 09:20 AM
Authored by Paul Craig Roberts,
I have come to the depressing conclusion that the white ethnicities that constituted the nations of Western Civilization have degenerated into such insouciance and stupidity that they have no possibility of survival.
They sit mindlessly in front of TV absorbing their brainwashing and indoctrination.
They can’t pay their rent, mortgage or car payments, but they pay endlessly for care of immigrant-invaders who are overwhelming their communities with material needs.
In the US, North Carolina, once a Southern state, now an immigrant staging ground, has given over its high schools to serve as immigrant-invader “resettlement areas.” To Hell with the North Carolina taxpayers. Immigrant-invaders’ rights preempt those of North Carolina taxpayers, whose majority white population, according to the narrative, consists of white supremacist racists exploiters.
North Carolina has also, at taxpayers’ expense, built a campus for a “head’s start” program for children of immigrant invaders. The program takes over a former school property for NC American citizens.
Wherever you look, you see the US welcoming at citizens taxpayer expense endless burdens from immigrant-invaders permitted to walk unheeded across the border into the Tower of Babel that the US has become. According to leaks, RINO Republican Senators are preparing an immigration bill that would force America to accept 1.8 million immigrant-invaders each year.
Amazing to watch white people destroy their own country.
No one in America can do anything about it. Instead of stopping the invasion and over-running of the country, the US government commits endless American resources to defending the aggressively expansive borders of Israel and Ukraine, while Washington dismantles the barrier put in place to defend America’s borders. And the fool responsible for this policy is running for reelection as president with the media’s and America’s elites’ support.
In what remains of European ethnic countries, the director of the EU’s “border protection agency, Fronrtex,” Hans Leitjens, said that “nothing can stop immigrants.”
What he means is that the EU will not stop immigrant-invaders from bringing the Camp of the Saints to all of Europe and perhaps to Russia as well, considering the weakness demonstrated by a government that could be ruling the world.
The dumbshit Hans Leitjens, obviously a proponent of Western annihilation, says that opposition to being overrun by immigrant-invaders constitutes “xenophobia and prejudice.”
There you have it.
If white ethnicities attempt to prevent their overthrow by invaders, they are xenophobic and racist.
How did so many white ethnicities get converted to a point of view that doesn’t serve them?
The English Suffer While Immigrant-invaders Are Housed in Hotels.
This is what white people have learned to expect from “their” governments.
Don’t you think it is strange that the world’s white ethnicities are prepared to commit lives and endless resources to protect the borders of Israel and Ukraine, but nothing to protect their own borders?
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How can people this totally stupid continue to exist?
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Isn't It Time We Have Social Security for Families with Children?
January 25, 2024
Fortunately, there's an obvious answer staring us in the face: Tax the Casino.
There is a generational war underway in the U.S., and to date the young generations have lost and the senior generations have won. In numerous posts over the past 15 years, I have endeavored to compare apples-to-apples to show that the generations that came of age in the 1960s through the 1990s could afford to own a house and raise a family with moderate incomes. This is no longer the case.
Apologists for the status quo disagree, of course, but they are unable to contest an accurate apples-to-apples comparison of the purchasing power of an hour of labor then and now. We can say an hour of wages bought more goods and services then than it does today, or we can say "everything was cheaper then." Regardless of the dynamics behind the devaluation of an hour's labor and the stratospheric rise in the cost of healthcare, housing, childcare, college tuition, etc., the reality is well-illustrated by one example: a young couple who bought a modest house in 1996 in the East Bay of the pricey San Francisco Bay Area. (These are friends of mine, so this is a factual account, not a theoretical example.)
Each worked part-time for the city library, at rates of pay and with benefits that were sufficient to get by but were nowhere close to median full-time wages: remember, these are part-time workers working around 30 hours a week.
With a modest down payment and income they qualified to buy a small, old house (built in 1916) on a small lot in an East Bay suburb--the classic starter home--in 1996 for $135,000. (The lot is too small to allow a garage next to the house or a driveway to a rear garage. It's small.)
Both were handy and slowly upgraded / remodeled the house with new heating, built new kitchen cabinetry, added insulation, new paint, updated bathroom, etc., over the course of a few years, at a cost in cash outlays of around $15,000, putting their total investment at $150,000, plus their labor of around $20,000. (Remember, these are 1997 dollars, so their $35,000 investment of materials and labor then would now cost $67,500 according to the BLS Inflation Calculator, which understates the soaring costs of building materials and labor.)
Note that they did not add a single square foot of additional space.
So let's say their total investment was around $170,000. By the modest standards of housing appreciation in the 1990s, they would have been doing very well to sell the house for $200,000 a few years down the road.
But then Housing Bubble #1 inflated (thank you, FHA, corrupt rating agencies, loose-money Federal Reserve and asleep-at-the-wheel regulators), and so they sold the small house for $542,000 in 2004.
Needless to say, their hourly wage did not triple in those eight years, nor could they have scraped up the 20% down payment on a $542,000 house ($108,000) with their moderate incomes. What was within reach in 1996 was completely, totally out of reach a few years later.
Fast-forward 20 years and the house is valued at $1.3 million, down from $1.4 million (such a deal!). A 20% down payment is $260,000 and the buyer will need somewhere in the neighborhood of $250,000 to $300,000 annual income to qualify for the $1 million mortgage.
In other words, not two part-time librarians. This is the generational divide in a nutshell, and to complete the picture, add in the skyrocketing cost of healthcare, childcare, etc. in the 27 years since they bought the modest home for an affordable price.
Calculated in the number of hours of work needed to buy the house in 1996 and today, the difference says all we need to know about the generational divide: according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the median annual salary in the US is $56,420 and the average annual salary is $60,575. Let's call it $30 per hour. Since California is a high-wage state, let's call it $34 per hour. In California in 1996, the average annual pay was $31,773, or roughly $16 per hour.
In 1996, it took 8,437 hours (without deductions for simplicity's sake) to buy a $135,000 house.
In 2023, it takes 38,235 hours to buy the same house for $1.3 million.
It takes 4.5 times more hours of labor to buy the same house today. Fellow citizens, I could go through the same apples-to-apples comparison of the hours of labor required to pay for healthcare insurance, 24 hours in a hospital, a month of childcare or state university tuition, and the results would be equally crushing.
For example:
University of California at Davis:
2004 in-state tuition $5,684
2018 in-state tuition $14,463
The apologists always have quibbles. But the quality of the goods and services we have now are so much better. Not just wrong--totally wrong: The "Crapification" of the U.S. Economy Is Now Complete (February 9, 2022)
Stainless Steal (February 26, 2023)
But California is an extreme; the median home price in the U.S. is only $400,000. In 1996, the median home price in the U.S. was $140,000. Average annual earnings in 1996: $29,000. Average annual earnings in 2023: $60,000.
So it took 4.8 years of work to buy a house in 1996 and it now takes 6.7 years. That's 40% more hours of work to buy a house. Never mind prices or inflation, both of which can be distorted and misleading: how many hours of labor does it take to buy a median-price house? Do the same calculation for childcare, healthcare and college tuition, and you get the same results:
What was within reach of the majority of average two-income households is no longer within reach. All of the quibbles in the universe don't change the fact that the older generations that bought assets at prevailing prices 25 or more years ago have banked enormous gains in their personal wealth, not through any particular genius or special effort but solely as the result of their entry into the economy pre-bubble.
These enormous gains in personal wealth have helped older generations offset the recent ravages of much higher costs of living (i.e. inflation). Many other benefits have accrued to those who bought assets pre-bubble, for example, in states with limits on property tax increases, the low initial purchase price of their home has locked in property taxes that are a fraction of the property taxes paid by recent buyers.
All of which leads me to this: isn't it time that we have Social Security for families with children, just as we do for seniors? Okay, now that the screaming and weeping and gnashing of teeth have subsided, I hear a plaintive cry: how are we going to pay for such a costly program?
Fortunately, there's an obvious answer staring us in the face: Tax the Casino, by which I mean institute a transaction tax on every transaction of buying, selling or transferring by any means any asset or financial instrument of any nature.
Okay, so the screaming and weeping and gnashing of teeth is even louder now, but after the rational mind once again becomes available for dialog, we can note that a 2% transaction fee on a $1,000 stock purchase is $20. Those who were trading stocks in the 1980s recall that buying $1,000 of stock in a brokerage account cost $54 or more in commission and fees. So the claim that a 2% transaction tax would cripple the nation is not based in historical fact.
In the booming 1980s, commissions on stocks and options were as high as 5%, and that didn't cripple the economy. Transaction fees at 5% suppress daytrading and high-frequency trading (HFT), i.e. totally unproductive skimming of wealth by financial trickery, but they don't impair long-term investing in productive assets.
In summary: a 2% transaction tax would have zero impact on legitimate investing and offer a useful suppression of unproductive skimming operations. Maybe capital would be incentivized to seek real-world long-term investments instead of financier/rentier skims and scams. As for real estate, many locales already have real estate transaction fees, and that fee is simply added to all the other commissions and fees. If the buyer can't afford their share of a 2% transaction tax, they have no business buying the property in the first place.
A modest 2% transaction tax on every asset-financial transaction in the U.S.--every stock, option, futures contract, derivative, cryptocurrency, ETF, mutual fund, rental property, commercial building, corporate merger, issuance of stock options, the sale of fine art and collectible autos--everything--would raise a rather large sum.
Those profiteering from the Casino will scream and weep, but the United States does not exist to enrich the few at the expense of the many or the common good. I know this is a shocking revelation, as it now seems that the nation does exist to enable the few to profit at the expense of the many, and it may be time to reclaim the interests of the nation and its citizenry and put them ahead of the private interests of bankers, Corporate insiders, financiers, rapacious cartels and monopolistic billionaires.
I'll discuss this further in a follow-up post, but let's be honest: such a transaction tax would go a long way to raising enough money to provide some cash payments to help non-wealthy families with children.
Yes, the devil is in the details, but let's stick with the overall context: there's $156 trillion in U.S. assets (plus foreign capital buying U.S. assets) sloshing around the U.S. economy, assets that are constantly being bought and sold, and 2% of all transactions would go a long way to supporting the families with children who aren't wealthy.
Or we accept a needless, divisive, incredibly destructive generational war to protect the infinite greed of those skimming wealth in the Casino. It's our choice, but it doesn't strike me as much of a choice.
More Than Half of US Wealth Belongs to Baby Boomers:
Baby boomers: $78.1 trillion (50%)
Generation X: $46 trillion (29.5%)
Silent Generation: $18.6 trillion (11.9%)
Millennials: $13.3 trillion (8.5%)
Generation Z: Insufficient data
Visualizing $156 Trillion in U.S. Assets, by Generation
The gig economy sucked in millennials like me. Will we ever get out?
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New podcast: Self Reliance (45 min).
My recent books:
Disclosure: As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases originated via links to Amazon products on this site.
The Asian Heroine Who Seduced Me (Novel) print $10.95, Kindle $6.95 Read an excerpt for free (PDF)
When You Can't Go On: Burnout, Reckoning and Renewal $18 print, $8.95 Kindle ebook; audiobook Read the first section for free (PDF)
Global Crisis, National Renewal: A (Revolutionary) Grand Strategy for the United States (Kindle $9.95, print $24, audiobook) Read Chapter One for free (PDF).
A Hacker's Teleology: Sharing the Wealth of Our Shrinking Planet (Kindle $8.95, print $20, audiobook $17.46) Read the first section for free (PDF).
Will You Be Richer or Poorer?: Profit, Power, and AI in a Traumatized World
(Kindle $5, print $10, audiobook) Read the first section for free (PDF).
The Adventures of the Consulting Philosopher: The Disappearance of Drake (Novel) $4.95 Kindle, $10.95 print); read the first chapters for free (PDF)
Money and Work Unchained $6.95 Kindle, $15 print) Read the first section for free
Become a $1/month patron of my work via patreon.com.
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When You Can't Go On: Burnout, Reckoning and Renewal ( $18 print, $8.95 Kindle ebook; audiobook)
https://www.oftwominds.com/covers/BRR-250.pngWhen I burned out, what I wanted but could not find was a practical guide by someone who had experienced burnout themselves. None of the material I found spoke to what I was experiencing or to my sense that our economy is now optimized to burn people out.
I decided to write the guide I wanted but could not find. This is my experience of burnout, reckoning and renewal.
This book is my account of what helped me. The intended audience is other burnouts and those who want to better understand the experience of burnout.
Burnout is a life-changing experience in a good way, as absurd as that may sound to those in the depths of burnout. To paraphrase Samuel Beckett: I can't go on but I must go on. There is a way forward.
Read the first section for free (PDF). The Introduction
The Epidemic Nobody Talks About: Burnout
Global Crisis, National Renewal: A (Revolutionary) Grand Strategy for the United States ( $22.50 print, $9.95 Kindle ebook, audiobook)
https://www.oftwominds.com/covers/GCNR-250.jpgNations that embrace Degrowth and social cohesion will survive. Those that cling to "waste is growth" economies and destabilizing extremes of inequality will perish.
The threats to the republic are unprecedented, and conventional responses are an accelerant of collapse: the status quo is now the problem rather than the solution.
We have an opportunity to redraw America s Grand Strategy from the ground up. Should we fail to do so, the United States will fail, along with all the other nation-states that are incapable of grasping degrowth and social unity as solutions.
This revolutionary Grand Strategy will be the deciding factor between nation-states that fail and the few (if any) that will not just survive but actually thrive.
Read Chapter One for free (PDF). Read the Introduction
Podcast discussing the book: A Grand Strategy to Address the Global Crisis (54 min., with Richard Bonugli)
Recent entries:
Isn't It Time We Have Social Security for Families with Children? January 25, 2024
The Template of National/Imperial Decay and Collapse January 24, 2024
Have Our Elites Lost The Mandate of Heaven? January 22, 2024
National Self-Reliance Is On the Rise: China and the U.S. January 19, 2024
How to Navigate Our Low-Trust, Increasingly Dysfunctional Society and Economy January 17, 2024
Self-Reliance, Taoism and the Warring States January 15, 2024
The Chinese Connection: Here's Why Inflation Won't Fall to 2% and Stay There Indefinitely January 10, 2024
What's the Source of the Astounding 50% Boost in Corporate Profits? January 8, 2024
What the Fed Accomplished: Distorted the Economy, Enriched the Rich and Crushed the Middle Class January 4, 2024
2023: The Fed Declares Victory; 2024: The Year of Hubris and Nemesis January 1, 2024
December 2023 entries
2023 archives Archives 2005-2023
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The price of speaking out on Gaza
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EDITOR'S NOTE: This is an ongoing series about how the war on Gaza is affecting Canadians. Next week's newsletter will deal with the alarming rise in antisemtism and Islamophobia.
EDITOR'S NOTE: This is an ongoing series about how the war on Gaza is affecting Canadians. Next week's newsletter will deal with the alarming rise in antisemtism and Islamophobia.
By Diane Yeung & Christopher Curtis
It’s been more than two months since J went viral, but the video continues to haunt them.
For weeks, people on the internet sent death threats, alluded to rapes and homophobic violence, and hunted for J’s identity and location. They called for J’s expulsion from university, imprisonment, and deportation from the country, even though J was born in Montreal. Among the slew of violent and horrific messages were photos of slaughtered pigs and clowns. Users branded J with labels including “whore,” “savage,” and “Islamist demon.”
“It’s over for you,” one user tweeted.
J’s days have since been relegated to hyperawareness. Fear accompanies them on the metro, on campus, in between classes, and anywhere that isn’t their home. Their spouse is notified whenever J moves from one site to another, and their friends and classmates are aware of every classroom they’re in. Outside of the home, they wear a medical mask.
“I never thought that if I was gonna go viral, it was gonna be for something that I didn’t say,” J said. “But it’s also terrifying, that there are large members of what would be our community sharing something that isn’t even confirmed, and you know, perpetuating a really dangerous narrative.”
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The viral video, captured Nov. 8 on Concordia University’s campus and circulated widely on social media the same day, was accompanied with defamatory claims that J had called another student an antisemitic slur. J says this couldn’t have been possible because they’d first learned of the slur when they were shown a TVA Nouvelles article about the video a few hours later.
“I had to ask a classmate what the k-slur even was,” J said. “I can’t say a word I didn’t know.”
J has tried to correct the record on X. They told The Rover that they were on their way to class in Concordia’s Hall Building when they happened upon a large gathering on the mezzanine floor. Crowds of students had gathered, chanting slogans for opposing views of Israel’s war on Gaza.
Two tabling events, which had been scheduled on the same day, at the same time, were taking place; one from student group Solidarity for Palestinian Human Rights, which was holding a fundraiser for the humanitarian crisis in Gaza as a result of Israel’s bombing campaign and its 75-year occupation of Palestine, and the other from Israeli student group StandUp Nation, which organized a demonstration to raise awareness of the hostages taken by Hamas from Israel on Oct. 7th.
Tensions mounted over the next few hours, and clashes led to one arrest and some injuries.
J heard shouting and saw people filming each other with their phones when they arrived. They stopped to demonstrate support for Palestinians and was then met with taunts and lewd sexual gestures from a middle-aged woman. The woman was part of a group of non-students who were called onto campus through group chats and social media.
The viral version of the video shows only J’s response, but an unedited video circulating on Instagram shows the woman saying something to J before J responded, “You know what? That’s something called pinkwashing. You’re a fucking cunt.” But pro-Israel activists, politicians, media workers, and even a Concordia professor insists that they said the antisemitic slur.
J now realizes they are not only experiencing internet doxxing, but also post-traumatic stress. The woman from the video, who J suspects is another student’s parent, had asked J whether they are gay. J responded, “What does that matter?” The woman then replies that J would be “raped in the ass” if they were in Gaza, which prompted J’s reply about pinkwashing. Pinkwashing is a term which pro-Palestinian activist group Jewish Voice for Peace defines as “when a state or organization appeals to LGBTQ+ rights in order to deflect attention from its harmful practices.”
“The big reason for my reaction was this lady saying I was gonna get raped,” J said. “And I am a sexual assault survivor. I’ve been through that twice in my life. So it’s a very triggering thing to have someone say that (to me).”
J will meet with the Sexual Assault Resource Centre at Concordia to help process the verbal homophobic assault they experienced. But the video still haunts them. Concordia’s Office of Safety and Security has since notified J that the university will be putting J before a tribunal, and if J is found to have violated the university’s code of conduct, they could face disciplinary action, including expulsion.
In major cities across the country, thousands take to the streets every week, demanding an end to the bombing campaign that’s killed more than 25,000 people in Gaza, while leveling hospitals, schools, refugee camps and all major civilian infrastructure.
On Friday, the International Court of Justice ruled that it’s plausible Israel is committing genocide or failing to prevent genocide in Gaza. The court implored Israel to take all measures to prevent and punish incitement of genocide in its war on Gaza but it stopped short of demanding a ceasefire, which will almost certainly fuel more protests.
For hundreds of Canadians, merely attending a rally or expressing pro-Palestinian views has opened them up to threats, professional reprisals and accusations of supporting terrorism. People and businesses supporting Israel’s war on Gaza have also faced threats, intimidation and boycotts.
And this is besides the alarming rise in antisemitism and Islamophobia that’s traumatizing entire communities. Police in Montreal and Toronto say there have been more reports of hate crimes against Jewish and Muslim people in the past three months than all of last year.
Far from calming the waters, some of Canada’s most prominent columnists and politicians are diving headfirst into the information war. In an article published across Canada’s largest newspaper network last month, Warren Kinsella claimed that, in Montreal, “pro-Hamas protesters can get up to $50 for each protest they attend.”
“Most of the protesters … are non-residents and students from Arab countries,” Kinsella wrote in his Dec. 20 column. Kinsella’s only evidence is a rumour he heard from Beryl Wasjman, the publisher of a small newspaper in the West Island. He provides no proof to back the claim that someone is paying crowds of Arabs to support Hamas on the streets of Montreal.
Two months earlier, National Post columnist Tristin Hopper tweeted that the Palestinian flag should be declared a hate symbol.
“I’m not seeing a lot of them waved around by people who don’t support mass murder,” Hopper tweeted. He has since compared military intervention in the Middle East to culling animals.
Both columnists have been berated online with comments that range from schoolyard insults to threats. But neither has faced professional consequences for their incendiary views.
***
While Kinsella’s claims about “Arabs” and “non-residents” appear to go unchallenged at the Postmedia-Sun network, a dozen sources in newsrooms across Canada told The Rover it’s been difficult to pitch stories seen as “too pro-Palestinian.”
“There’s definitely a chill. People are scared. There are some columnists, not many but some, who are publicly critical of the (Israel Defense Force) expressing pro Palestinian views,” said Amber*, a senior reporter in one of Canada’s biggest newsrooms. “There are many more behind the scenes, pitching stories, making suggestions about how more fairness can be inserted into the storytelling process, and those voices are being sidelined.”
Before Oct. 7, CBC News employees were allowed to retweet and share news stories from “credible” sources, as per the national broadcaster’s social media policy. But in a Nov. 24 email to reporters covering the Middle East, editor-in-chief Brodie Fenlon said this would no longer be the case. Under the new policy, employees can only tweet news stories that have first been reported by CBC.
It’s become nearly impossible for journalists to share stories reported from inside Gaza since the national broadcaster doesn’t have much of a presence on the ground. Four sources at the CBC say they’ve been prevented from posting stories by The Guardian, The Washington Post, Al-Jazeera and other outlets reporting on starvation and possible war crimes in Gaza.
A source inside CBC said he felt his bosses are doing their best to navigate a complicated political landscape, but that “self censorship” and a “fear of backlash” is preventing reporters from doing their job.
After CBC reporter Brishti Basu wrote an article about Canadians with pro-Palestinian views facing backlash, the pro-Israel lobby group Honest Reporting organized a letter-writing campaign to have her reprimanded. It was the fourth time they reported on Basu.
Basu’s contract was terminated within the month for “budgetary reasons.” She did not wish to comment but the reporter’s colleagues describe her as a driven, thorough and fair reporter who’s been nominated for provincial and national awards throughout her short career.
In the past week alone, the lobby group has organized similar spamming campaigns against award-winning children’s author Elise Gravel, The Toronto Star’s Shree Paradkar, the student newspaper at Simon Fraser University and a professor at St-Thomas University.
Meanwhile, colleagues of a CBC journalist who works with the Fifth Estate say he’s demonstrated a clear pro-Israel bias but faced no consequences.
After Israel released Palestinian prisoners in exchange for Israeli hostages in November, one senior producer wrote an email to the CBC’s Middle East coverage team, stating the broadcaster shouldn’t show footage of Palestinian families reuniting.
“Palestinian prisoners were detained by the justice system of a country that has rule of law,” the producer wrote, in an email sent to dozens of colleagues. “Those prisoners should not have been let out as the result of an illegal hostage taking.”
In response, the journalist’s superior informs him the email was “inappropriate” but he has not been prevented from working on stories about the conflict. His statement about Palestinian prisoners is also false, according to Amnesty International and other human rights groups.
Palestinians do not enjoy the same legal protections as Israelis since the creation of the state of Israel in 1948 on formerly Palestinian territory. Many of the Palestinian detainees are children and some have been held for years without a trial.
“As you know, everything we put to air or publish online must meet our journalistic standards of accuracy, impartiality, balance and fairness,” said CBC spokesperson Chuck Thompson, in a statement sent to The Rover. “We're held accountable through an independent ombudsman.”
Instances of censorship are also affecting freelancers like Rob Rousseau, who was one of a handful of journalists purged from X two weeks ago. Rousseau, a Montrealer who broadcasts his daily show on Twitch, saw his account suspended alongside The Intercept journalist Ken Klippenstein and Texas Observer’s Steven Monacelli. Though engagement on the social media site has dropped significantly since it was acquired by Elon Musk, X is a significant driver of traffic and income for Rousseau.
“I woke up that morning, I noticed that my account had been suspended and there was no reason as to why,” Rousseau told The Rover. “Just kind of a vague message about violating the rules. They didn’t show me a tweet or anything specific, there was no actual explanation for it. I’ve been talking a lot about Israel for the last couple of months. I've been critical of the IDF, so I think it had to do with that.”
In public statements, Klippenstein and Moncelli have said they also believe they were suspended for their criticism of Israel and Musk, who aligned himself with the Israeli government in late November after he was taken to task for endorsing an antisemitic conspiracy theory.
Rousseau, Klippenstein and Monacelli’s accounts were reinstated after a sustained outcry on X.
Steven Zhou, a spokesperson for the National Council of Canadian Muslims, says backlash against Muslim supporters of Palestine has been “excessive and frightening.”
“There was a boy suspended from elementary school for saying the words ‘Free Palestine,’” said Zhou. “We’ve had reports of people losing their job for opposing the war and we’ve fielded hundreds of complaints since Oct. 7. The backlash is real.”
Every morning, when she opens her email, Katelyn* comes across a picture of a dead Palestinian child.
The images are disturbing. She says they depict children missing limbs, toddlers lying dead in the street or on stretchers, covered in a pall of dust and blood.
“I’ve had 74 photos sent to me just today,” said Katelyn, who did not want her real name published for fear of more backlash. “It’s traumatizing.”
Katelyn is a staffer for a Member of Parliament who has been one of Israel's most avid supporters throughout the war. She says she’s been shouted down in public, and called a “fat genocidal bitch” while walking into her boss’s office.
The first Friday after Oct. 7, Avishai Infeld was about to leave for Shabbat dinner in downtown Montreal when police informed him they had reason to fear for his safety. Infeld was inside the building of an organization that supports the war when police informed them they would need to be escorted to Shabbat.
Infeld says an officer told his group that a number of factors — Hamas had called on supporters to participate in a “day of rage,” which coincided with pro-Palestinian rallies across the globe — led police to take the precautionary measure.
That same day, in Illinois, a 71 year-old white American landlord killed his tenant, a 6 year-old Palestinian child named Wadea Al Fayoume, by stabbing Fayoume 26 times because “he was concerned about the national day of Jihad that was supposed to occur.” Fayoume was killed in front of his mother, who also sustained life-threatening injuries.
“It’s sad that it came to that, needing police protection,” Infeld said. “I never thought we would.”
One downtown business owner told The Rover that, during a series of pro-Palestinian rallies late last year, he felt a group of protesters were trying to intimidate him because they believed he supports Israel’s war on Gaza.
“This guy told me he’d looked me up on social media and saw that I retweeted a post condemning the Oct. 7 attacks,” the business owner said. “It wasn’t pro-war, it was literally just a message condemning the attacks. So the guy said if I didn’t delete the tweet, he would keep coming back to my business with his friends and refuse to leave. I don’t know what to call that except intimidation.”
Liberal MP Anthony Housefather told The Rover he has dealt with hundreds of hateful messages online and in his inbox while publicly being called “a Nazi” and a supporter of genocide. Last month, a group of activists postered the entrance of Housefather’s Mount Royal riding office with signs that read “Trudeau complicit in the deaths of over 20,000 Palestinians” and “Sanction Israel, End the Siege of Gaza.”
Zhou says he’s worried that well-intentioned, otherwise reasonable people are succumbing to their worst impulses on social media.
“Regardless of where you find yourself in this debate, there’s been a tendency to attack first and ask questions later,” said Zhou.
Zhou was "shocked" on Jan. 1, when Liberal MP Marco Mendicino shared a tweet by Meir Weinstein — a controversial activist who recently called on Canadians to arm themselves, “learn to fight and learn to shoot,” when asked how people should prepare for the arrival of Palestinian refugees in Canada.
Weinstein is the former president of the Jewish Defence League’s Canadian chapter. The JDL is considered a right-wing terrorist group by the Federal Bureau of Investigation. Mendicino was Canada’s Public Safety Minister before he was booted from his post in a cabinet shuffle last summer.
“We asked Mr. Mendicino to take the tweet down, we told him, ‘This is a person who’s called on violence against any potential Gazan refugees in Canada. You shouldn’t be retweeting him,’” Zhou said. “It’s not entirely clear to me why he thought it was a good idea to go down that route.”
***
The incident at Hall Building occurred during J’s first semester at Concordia, an event which completely sidelined the remaining semester for them.
“You know, I was born here and then lived in Vancouver for most of my life,” J said. “So moving back here was a really big thing for me and it’s just felt so isolating.”
J struggled to keep up with their studies. They didn’t leave the apartment for two weeks, and when they returned to campus, it was hard to focus. Finals week was impossible to keep up with on top of the stress from the doxxing campaign. All this while J was already living with Complex Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder from the two sexual assaults they lived through.
“I feel like I’ve retreated into myself a lot and kind of just been hermiting, and trying to make time go by as quickly as possible,” J said.
J returned to Concordia for the winter semester riddled with anxiety. It was hard enough, they said, walking around campus worried someone would physically or verbally attack them if they were to be recognized from the viral video. But none of it measured up to the email they received not even a week into the semester, with news that Concordia was putting them on a tribunal for allegedly making campus unsafe.
“It’s exhausting. It’s aggravating. It’s depressing,” J said. “And it feels unjust. Targeted.”
J’s tribunal is currently anticipated to take place around late summer. They’ll be requesting that Concordia settle the matter outside of the tribunal, in hopes that their academic career won’t be impacted more than it already has been. Until then, they’re taking it one day at a time.
“I have a handful of people that I feel close [to] and can confide in and feel safe around,” J said. “So as long as I have that, it makes it all a bit easier to manage.”
- Post #12,165
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- Jan 28, 2024 4:12pm Jan 28, 2024 4:12pm
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The system is failing. We're on our own.
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=JeURcwiT
BY AKRAINER
SUNDAY, JAN 28, 2024 - 5:36
[Originally published on Alex Krainer's Substack] Earlier this month I wrote about the Robert v. Austin case filed by a legal team comprising Andrew L. Schlafly, Todd Callender, David Wilson and Lisa McGee (link to article: C0VlD l9 hoax goes to court).
The case was profoundly important because it confronted the judiciary with questions that cut to the core of liberty and human dignity. The courts would have to hear evidence and rule about whether individuals who received C19 shots could be regarded as chattel property with no human or constitutional rights.
Petition denied
The question is profoundly chilling and it may seem surreal. One might feel inclined to disregard it as crazy talk, but the law is far from reassuring in this respect. According to the 2013 Supreme Court ruling in the Association for Molecular Pathology v. Myriad Genetics, Inc., gene modified organisms may legally be regarded as synthetic species. Gene modification renders such organisms property of patent holders who own the intellectual property rights over the newly synthesized genes. The implication of that decision is that genetically modified humans could be the property of MRNA technology patent holders.
Given the importance of these questions, one would expect the judiciary to hear the petitioners’ arguments, examine the evidence and remove any ambiguities, rendering a clear endorsement of human dignity and a categorical proscription of the idea that someone could hold other human beings in ownership. However, district and appellate courts repeatedly refused to hear the evidence and dismissed the case, as ordered by the US Defense Department. The petitioners pursued their cause to the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) however, and on January 5, a panel of judges began their deliberations about whether to hear the case or not. Such deliberations can go on for weeks, but it took them only 3 days to decide: “petition denied.”
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/...4e_513x240.png
How the judiciary is being sabotaged
The American people are taxed more heavily than medieval serfs to fund the institutions of their government so that these could, among other things, adjudicate such important questions as whether some Americans are in fact slaves or not. In this sense, the courts’ refusal to hear Robert v. Austin is an egregious failure of the system. In my article, C0VlD l9 hoax goes to court, I laid out why that is: the U.S. is presently operating under a covert, hybrid totalitarianism.
Further to the adoption of globalist public health emergency laws, an extensive turn-key absolutism has been engineered within legitimate government structures. It has been designed to go into effect when either the Secretary of US Health and Human Services, or the head of the World Health Organization declare a pandemic. Such declaration could not be challenged by any democratic institution of government.
2+2=5. Corruption is integrity.
But the sabotage of the US judiciary has been much more extensive than that. As professor Jonathan Turley pointed out, there has been an open debate in legal and academic circles about using bribery to influence judges. In 2022, a Georgetown law professor openly encouraged more “aggressive” measures targeting the justices. Seton Hall Law Assistant Dean Brian Sheppard called for Congress to “buyout” Supreme Court justices.
Sheppard proposed that offering them “large sums of money could be effective without harming the integrity of the institution... Congress should offer substantial buyouts to any Supreme Court justices who retire when they reach 10 years of service on the High Court. ... To overcome the considerable allure of ideological power, the sum should be in the millions.” He further suggested that “If Congress cannot be persuaded to pass a buyout plan, then President Biden might be able to gather sufficient discretionary funds for that purpose with money under his control.”
Could anybody in their right mind actually believe that offering bribes to judges wouldn't impact their integrity? I don’t think anyone is that dumb, but it seems that we have well and truly reached the 2+2=5 state of things. Ignorance is strength. War is peace. Slavery is freedom. Corruption is integrity.
You can take silver, or you can have the lead instead!
When bribes are being offered by people in power, declining the offer always cones at considerable personal risk. For judges who maintain their personal and professional integrity, there are stronger methods of persuasion. In 2020 for example, judge Esther Salas was assigned to handle a Jeffrey Epstein-related money laundering class action suit against Deutsche Bank. A few days later, someone dispatched an assassin to Ms. Salas' home. She survived the assassination attempt because she stepped out for a random errand, but the assassin killed her son and wounded her husband.
This certainly wasn’t an isolated case. The botched assassination and the subsequent “suicide” of the assassin made it too obvious to ignore, but the practice of bribing or threatening judges is widespread. Before Salas, we also had the bizarre case of the Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia's sudden death which stimulated some conspiracy analysts into action. Justice John Roberts' pattern of conduct strongly suggests that he's been had. It's routine business, it seems, and the way it's done was explained to us by the NSA whistleblower Russell Tice. In 2013, he gave an interview on the “Boiling Frogs radio podcast with Sibel Edmonds and Peter Collins" in which he testified as follows:
“They [NSA] went after - and I know this because I had my hands literally on the paperwork for these sort of things - they went after high-ranking military officers; they went after members of Congress, both Senate and the House, especially on intelligence committees and on the armed services committees and … judicial. But they went after others too. They went after lawyers and law firms. All kinds of - heaps of lawyers and law firms. They went after judges. One of the judges is now sitting on the Supreme Court that I had his wiretap information in my hand. Two are former FISA court judges. They went after State Department officials. They went after people in the executive service that were part of the White House…”
Mr. Tice said that NSA also targeted antiwar groups, civil rights groups, multinational corporations, banking and financial firms, NGOs and Red Cross and added this disturbing bit:
“This was in the summer of 2004. One of the papers that I held in my hand was to wiretap a bunch of members associated with, with a 40-something-hear-old wannabe senator from Illinois… that’s the President of the United States now.”
Of course, Tice was referring to Barack Obama. In a different interview, he also mentioned that the Secretary of State, General Colin Powell had been targeted. This might explain why Powell disgraced himself by giving false testimony about Saddam Hussein’s mobile biolabs to United Nations Security Council in order to justify US invasion of Iraq.
Who is actually in charge?
The institutions of our governing systems may have been created for the right reasons but for a long time, while we were being distracted, they have been systematically corrupted and sabotaged. If every person in power, from the US President on down, is a target of bribery, blackmail or assassination, we are operating in a system that's very different the one that has been advertised to us. The facade of effective checks and balances and equal justice for all is a fiction, there only to lull us into passive acquiescence to the covert rule of clandestine forces behind the throne. Who might those forces be? I have answered that question in an article I published during the pandemic and which I will revisit next.
Alex Krainer – @NakedHedgie is the creator of I-System Trend Following and publisher of daily TrendCompass investor reports which cover over 200 financial and commodities markets. One-month test drive is always free of charge, no jumping through hoops to cancel. To start your trial subscription, drop us an email at [email protected]
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- Post #12,166
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Russian “America Bloody Civil War” Parody Joins Real Life Texas “Declaration Of War”
By: Sorcha Faal, and as reported to her Western Subscribers
A beyond concerning new Security Council (SC) report circulating in the Kremlin today first noting President Putin laid flowers at the Frontier Stone Monument on the Nevsky Patch in commemoration of the 80th Anniversary of the liberation of Leningrad from National Socialist German Workers' Party (aka Nazi Party) forces, and where he vowed to the world: “We will do everything – everything to undercut and eradicate Nazism for good”, says this followed Russian media personality and singer Olga Buzova, who is regarded as one of the most successful Russian contemporary entertainers, releasing her parody video based on the former Soviet Union film “Time, Forward!”, wherein she imagined a United States under socialist siege stating: “Today, at a special meeting of the UN Security Council, a decision was made to send an additional peacekkeping task force to the USA...Soviet servicemen will also join the task force...On the territory of the former United States of America, a bloody civil war is continuing...Hiding in Hawaii, the last legitimate US President Donald Trump has, once again, asked the USSR for military assistance to suppress insurgent gangs of marauders...To fulfill this mission, the Soviet Union is sending the 104th Airborne Brigade from its Anchorage base in the Republic of Alaska”—and is a video meant as a parody that was quickly joined by the shocking American article “The U.S. Is A Lawless Society Where The Criminals Get To Go Free But Underwear And Socks Are Locked Up”.
As “insurgent gangs of marauders” turn the United States into a “lawless society”, this report notes, it was revealed today: “A new migrant caravan made up of approximately 1,800 migrants began walking through southern Mexico to make their way north toward the U.S. border, where some have expressed the expectation of crossing illegally and then requesting asylum or protection”—a revelation joined by the beyond all belief shocking article “Joe Biden’s Parole Pipeline Freed 745,000 Foreign Nationals Into U.S. In 2023 — Exceeding 2 Months Of American Births”—and as for the top priority of Supreme Socialist Leader Joe Biden while America is being destroyed, today it was also revealed: “The White House says it is “alarmed” over sexually explicit AI-generated images of pop star Taylor Swift circulating on social media”.
Currently in the United States Senate, this report continues, is a secret bill no one is allowed to see linking aid to Ukraine to American border protection, about which Socialist Leader Biden proclaimed: “If enacted, would be the toughest and fairest set of reforms to secure the border we've ever had...It would give me, as President, a new emergency authority to shut down the border when it becomes overwhelmed...And if given that authority, I would use it the day I sign the bill into law”—top Republican Party leader House Speaker Mike Johnson warned this secret bill is “dead on arrival” if it reaches the United States House of Representatives and factually declared: “President Biden falsely claimed yesterday he needs Congress to pass a new law to allow him to close the southern border, but he knows that is untrue...As I explained to him in a letter late last year, and have specifically reiterated to him on multiple occasions since, he can and must take executive action immediately to reverse the catastrophe he has created”—a factual declaration joined by the world’s richest person Elon Musk truthfully observing: “No laws need to be passed...All that is needed is an executive order to require proof before granting an asylum hearing, that is how it used to be”—and famed American political journalist Michael Shannon honestly assessed: “Joe Biden remains an unrepentant liar...He has no intention of closing the border and even if they did, it’s too late...What is required is closing the border and relentless, mass deportations of illegals regardless of how long they’ve been inside the border breaking the law”.
As of 8 December 2023, this report details, “Operation Lone Star” launched by Texas Governor Greg Abbott amassed $55,427,025 in donations from the American peoples to build a border wall, and this past week, on 24 January 2024, it saw Governor Abbott issuing his declaration of war statement against the socialist Biden Regime proclaiming:
The federal government has broken the compact between the United States and the States.
The Executive Branch of the United States has a constitutional duty to enforce federal laws protecting States, including immigration laws on the books right now. President Biden has refused to enforce those laws and has even violated them. The result is that he has smashed records for illegal immigration.
Despite having been put on notice in a series of letters—one of which I delivered to him by hand—President Biden has ignored Texas’s demand that he perform his constitutional duties.
• President Biden has violated his oath to faithfully execute immigration laws enacted by Congress. Instead of prosecuting immigrants for the federal crime of illegal entry, President Biden has sent his lawyers into federal courts to sue Texas for taking action to secure the border.
• President Biden has instructed his agencies to ignore federal statutes that mandate the detention of illegal immigrants. The effect is to illegally allow their en masse parole into the United States.
• By wasting taxpayer dollars to tear open Texas’s border security infrastructure, President Biden has enticed illegal immigrants away from the 28 legal entry points along this State’s southern border—bridges where nobody drowns—and into the dangerous waters of the Rio Grande.
Under President Biden’s lawless border policies, more than 6 million illegal immigrants have crossed our southern border in just 3 years. That is more than the population of 33 different States in this country. This illegal refusal to protect the States has inflicted unprecedented harm on the People all across the United States.
James Madison, Alexander Hamilton, and the other visionaries who wrote the U.S. Constitution foresaw that States should not be left to the mercy of a lawless president who does nothing to stop external threats like cartels smuggling millions of illegal immigrants across the border. That is why the Framers included both Article IV, § 4, which promises that the federal government “shall protect each [State] against invasion”, and Article I, § 10, Clause 3, which acknowledges “the States’ sovereign interest in protecting their borders”. Arizona v. United States, 567 U.S. 387, 419 (2012) (Scalia, J., dissenting).
The failure of the Biden Administration to fulfill the duties imposed by Article IV, § 4 has triggered Article I, § 10, Clause 3, which reserves to this State the right of self-defense.
For these reasons, I have already declared an invasion under Article I, § 10, Clause 3 to invoke Texas’s constitutional authority to defend and protect itself.
That authority is the supreme law of the land and supersedes any federal statutes to the contrary.
The Texas National Guard, the Texas Department of Public Safety, and other Texas personnel are acting on that authority, as well as state law, to secure the Texas border.
Immediately upon Texas Governor Abbott issuing his declaration of war against the socialist Biden Regime, the report notes, the Republican Governors Association (RGA) representing 27 of the 50 States in America issued its supporting the right to defense proclamation:
President Biden and his Administration have left Americans and our country completely vulnerable to unprecedented illegal immigration pouring across the Southern border. Instead of upholding the rule of law and securing the border, the Biden Administration has attacked and sued Texas for stepping up to protect American citizens from historic levels of illegal immigrants, deadly drugs like fentanyl, and terrorists entering our country.
We stand in solidarity with our fellow Governor, Greg Abbott, and the State of Texas in utilizing every tool and strategy, including razor wire fences, to secure the border.
We do it in part because the Biden Administration is refusing to enforce immigration laws already on the books and is illegally allowing mass parole across America of migrants who entered our country illegally.
The authors of the U.S. Constitution made clear that in times like this, states have a right of self-defense, under Article 4, Section 4 and Article 1, Section 10, Clause 3 of the U.S. Constitution.
Because the Biden Administration has abdicated its constitutional compact duties to the states, Texas has every legal justification to protect the sovereignty of our states and our nation.
Along with Republican States now rushing military troops and State police forces to Texas so it can defend itself against the socialist Biden Regime, this report continues, a massive protest convoy of American peoples calling itself an “Army of God” is also preparing to rush there, and about whom Fox News just revealed: “Large groups of concerned Americans are traveling toward the southern border to demand action from the Biden administration to fix the "wide open" flood of illegal migrants..."Fellow citizens and compatriots ...I call on you in the name of liberty, of patriotism and everything dear to the American character to come to our aid with all dispatch", Pete Chambers, one of the coalition’s commanders, wrote on the "Take Our Border Back" website ”.
With Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton rejecting all demands from the socialist Biden Regime, this report details, today it was stunningly revealed: “In defiance of the Biden Administration’s wishes, senior figures within Customs and Border Protection have stated that there are no plans to have Border Patrol agents remove razor wire barriers erected along sections of the border by the Texas National Guard”—and last evening, President Donald Trump vowed to the under socialist siege peoples of Texas: “When I’m president, instead of trying to send Texas a restraining order, I will send them REINFORCEMENTS...Texas will be given full support and I will deploy all necessary military and law enforcement resources to seal up the final section of border”.
As the United States now stands on the brink of civil war, this report notes, former senior Pentagon security policy analyst Michael Maloof just warned: “This whole immigration issue has become one total mess...Texas Governor Greg Abbott and the governors of 25 other states are very firmly opposed to what the Biden administration is doing...And I would add that it's also suggesting a line in the sand...If you look at the states that are involved, they're mostly right in the middle and approaching toward the east...And it's really a clear division of blue states versus red states in this country today, which is where the political lines have been drawn...And this is all happening leading up to the 2024 elections...And I'm afraid that if the way things are going right now, if Biden wins reelection, there could be a huge explosion in this country”—a warning joined by world-renowned American constitutional historian Daniel Lazare fearfully assessing: “The US political system is cracking along state and federal lines...I have no idea how far this will go...The crisis goes far beyond a local dispute between Texas and the federal government: it threatens the very existence and survival of the United States...
It is nearly 10 months to the presidential elections, yet already civil war is erupting...The 248-year-old American republic is crumbling before our very eyes”.
While watching as an “already civil war is erupting” in the United States, this report concludes, Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev most factually assessed: “There are known cases in history when some states tried to break away from the Union and form the Confederacy...The end result was the bloody civil war which cost thousands upon thousands of lives...Either way, America can face an unsolvable constitutional crisis, and for long, fall into the abyss of a new, possibly even more destructive civil confrontation...And the Western world, its breath held, will be staring at the American mess in fear...Well, it's their problem, anyway”.
[Note: Some words and/or phrases appearing in quotes in this report are English language approximations of Russian words/phrases having no exact counterpart.]
https://www.whatdoesitmean.com/tcw21.png
January 28, 2024 EU and US all rights reserved. Permission to use this report in its entirety is granted under the condition it is linked to its original source at WhatDoesItMean.Com. Freebase content licensed under CC-BY and GFDL.
[Note: Many governments and their intelligence services actively campaign against the information found in these reports so as not to alarm their citizens about the many catastrophic Earth changes and events to come, a stance that the Sisters of Sorcha Faal strongly disagree with in believing that it is every human being’s right to know the truth. Due to our mission’s conflicts with that of those governments, the responses of their ‘agents’ has been a longstanding misinformation/misdirection campaign designed to discredit us, and others like us, that is exampled in numerous places, including HERE.]
[Note: The WhatDoesItMean.com website was created for and donated to the Sisters of Sorcha Faal in 2003 by a small group of American computer experts led by the late global technology guru Wayne Green (1922-2013) to counter the propaganda being used by the West to promote their illegal 2003 invasion of Iraq.]
[Note: The word Kremlin (fortress inside a city) as used in this report refers to Russian citadels, including in Moscow, having cathedrals wherein female Schema monks (Orthodox nuns) reside, many of whom are devoted to the mission of the Sisters of Sorcha Faal.]
Kari Lake Warns “They’re Going To Have Me Murdered” As “Jellyfish Alien” Terror Grows
Assassination Season Officially Opens In America
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- Post #12,167
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- Jan 28, 2024 10:43pm Jan 28, 2024 10:43pm
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- Post #12,168
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- Jan 29, 2024 10:45pm Jan 29, 2024 10:45pm
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Disliked{quote} Yes would you please explain WHY the Patterns Repeat ?? Thanks.Ignored
i am back after a long break due to my family matter. would you mind explaining me the above quote I asked you around 6 months ago.
waiting your reply anxiously. thanks and take care
and one more thing, I do not see your forecast for this quarter for Gold and so on.
- Post #12,169
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- Jan 30, 2024 12:47am Jan 30, 2024 12:47am
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Disliked5-Minute Chart of Dow 30 - Notice how we continually see the same patterns. https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=YM&p=i5 When you sign up for the 90-day course, I will explain fundamentally why the patterns repeat. It is not a coincidence. It all relates to my MONEY FLOW Strategy. Aviel Forex Learning Edge Corporation WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM {image}Ignored
- Post #12,170
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- Edited 7:07am Feb 1, 2024 6:47am | Edited 7:07am
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The US Is Living On Borrowed Time
https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b.../picture-5.jpg
BY TYLER DURDEN
THURSDAY, FEB 01, 2024 - 06:30 AM
Authored by Matthew Piepenburg via VonGreyerz.gold,
In late December, I published a final report on the themes of 2023 while looking ahead at their implications for the year to come.
I repeated my claim that debt markets and debt levels made the future of Fed policies, currency moves, rate markets and gold’s endgame fairly clear to see.
Current Time 0:22
Of course, as facts change, opinions change as well.
But the facts are only worsening, which means my opinions in late 2023 are only growing stronger as we conclude the first month of 2024.
Then as now, the debt-soaked US is tilting ever more toward policies which will weaken its currency, wound its middleclass and reward its false idols (and false markets) with even greater desperation.
In particular, some recent facts below are emerging which further support my otherwise sad conviction that the American economy (not to be confused with its Fed-supported stock exchanges) is literally living on borrowed time.
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=AKBCUsTG
The Latest Bits of Crazy from the CBO
Almost a year ago to date, I was shaking my head and rubbing my eyes as the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) announced a staggering $422B Federal budget deficit for Q1 2023.
Now that’s a lot of borrowing in a short amount of time…
For some strange reason, this bothered me in early 2023, as I was still under this odd impression that debt, and hence deficits, actually mattered.
Fast forward to January 2024, and that same CBO has just announced a $509B Federal budget deficit for Q1 2024.
Folks, that adds up to annual deficit run rate of $2.2T.
Please: Re-read that last line again.
Do the Math: DC is Getting Even Dumber
In this 12-month interim, fiscal revenues did increase by about 8%, but outlays (i.e., expenses) for that same period rose by 12%, which is just a mathematical way of saying that either: 1) Uncle Sam is out of his mind in debt; or 2) that I am out of my mind in common sense.
But it seems I’m not the alone in saying out loud what no one DC can say to themselves, namely: The US is now in an open and obvious debt spiral.
Uncle Sam’s embarrassing bar tab of debt is now racing at a rate that far exceeds his GDP, pushing the deficit to GDP ratio toward 8% and higher–ratios we’ve never seen except during the GFC of 2008 and the “COVID” (i.e., hidden bond) crisis of 2020.
From Debt Spiral to Super QE
If recent memory serves me correctly, in both of those embarrassing years (and ratios), what followed was QE to the moon and the ongoing fantasy that every debt problem can be solved with trillions of fiat dollars mouse-clicked out of thin air.
And this time around will likely be no different, as I and others like Luke Gromen have been warning week after week, and month after month.
Such warnings, which NO ONE can time, are not merely bearish “opinions” and don’t require a crystal ball or sensational guessing.
They just require a calculator and a basic understanding of history.
Simple Math
As to basic math, one can have their own opinions but not their own facts, and the facts (i.e., math) tell us that the current cost of servicing the aforementioned debt is 16% of Federal tax receipts.
Again: Please re-read that last line. It matters, because, well…debt destroys nations.
Nor am I alone in this sober understanding.
As the former head of European block trading at Goldman Sachs, Alex Harfouche, just warned, these sickening debt ratios mean the US economy’s ability to shoulder such debt is both “horrible” and “crippling.”
Which means we all know (or should know) what’s coming next.
The Patterns of the Foolish
As in 2008 and 2020, we can now see a pattern playing out in 2024, namely an inevitable shift from rate hikes and pauses toward rate cuts and the inevitable shift from QT to QE.
Why inevitable?
Because stupidity combined with a Will to Power that would make Nietzsche blush are the profile traits of nearly all math-ignorant but ego-savvy policy makers seeking re-election or a Nobel Prize in Economics (fiction?).
That is, and especially in an election year, policy makers will not cut spending but increase it in a desperate bid to bribe the gullible masses into a Pavlovian voting pattern based on generations of political over-promising and grotesque under-delivering.
This political inability to cut entitlement spending makes a US debt spiral (and hence QE to the moon) as foreseeable as the NY Yankees beating my high-school baseball team.
DC Cutting Rates Rather than Spending
Furthermore, since the DC children running our country into the ground won’t cut spending, the only thing they can (and will) cut is interest rates.
Why?
Because cutting rates not only takes pressure off Uncle Sam’s IOUs (USTs), but also eases the pain of those complicit S&P zombies staring down the barrel of over $740B in debt rollovers in 2024.
Main Street Screwed Again
Remember: The Fed serves TBTF banks and exchanges, not citizens and their realities.
Interest rate cuts + QE = a further debased USD and rising inflation (with a deflationary recession in the middle).
And this means the voters on Main Street are about to feel the darker side of DC’s real mandate: Covering their own A$$’es while keeping Wall Street on a respirator.
Meanwhile, the masses feel pain, but can’t quite see from where it’s coming, as the media, MMT hucksters and political Ken and Barbies keep telling them that deficits don’t matter.
Deficits Don’t Matter?
Even worse, there are those sitting in private wealth management suites smugly reminding their clients that Japan is in much worse debt (see below) than Uncle Sam, and if Japan can muddle through, certainly the US has nothing to fear.
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=ToxmTW6-
But as I recently reminded the attendees at the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference, Japan does not have twin deficits, a negative 65% Net International Investment Position nor an externally financed bond market.
In short: Japan aint America. But even if it were, it’s nothing of which to boast…
Whistling Past the Debt Graveyard with More Spending
Like Luke Gromen, I am of the sober and math-based view that unless the US cuts entitlement and defense spending by 40% (unthinkable in an election year and a world of beating [US?] war drums almost everywhere), such austerity is about as likely as an honest man in Congress…
Failing such needed cuts and sound budget honesty, policy makers will merely whistle past another year of multi-trillion deficit levels and pass the bill on to current and future generations while inflating their way out of debt with more of the debased money in your pockets.
As I’ve written before, this is no surprise. In fact, it was the plan all along, despite Powell’s efforts to pretend otherwise.
Keep It Simple: Powell Will Pivot
Debtors, including Uncle Sam, need inflation and need a debased currency.
They need negative real rates whereby inflation outpaces the yield on 10Y bonds.
Powell, of course, tried pushing real rates to a positive 2% to allegedly “fight inflation,” but, and as in 2018-19, the net result was that he simply broke nearly everything but the USD in the process.
In fact, Powell was merely raising rates and thinning the Fed balance sheet so that he’d have something (anything) to cut (rates) and fatten (balance sheet) when the recession that his higher-for-longer policies ushered in (and then denied) became too impossible to ignore.
Or stated more bluntly: His recent QT was a planned precursor to more QE, and his recent rate hikes were a planned precursor to more rate cuts.
Keep It Simple: A Future of Debased Currency
Thus, and long before hitting “target 2%,” Powell will once again throw in the towel in 2024 on rate hikes for the simple reason that Uncle Sam can’t afford them.
Or stated (and repeated) more simply, his “war on inflation,” waged in the last 2 years, will ultimately (and ironically) end in even greater inflation.
Ahhh the ironies. Or better yet: “The horror, the horror…”
History confirms this pattern in one debt-failed nation after the next.
In fact, and without exception, currencies are always sacrificed to save a broken regime. And folks, our regime is objectively broke(n).
Thus, for those who know the math (above), and the history of yesterday, preparing for tomorrow is simple.
Projected rate cuts (and the scent of more synthetic liquidity) can and (already have) sent inflated risk assets higher as the inherent purchasing power of the currency gets weaker.
Keep It Simple: Natural Gold vs. An Un-Natural Dollar
This simply means gold, though never marching in a straight line, will reach higher highs and lower lows for no other reason than paper currencies like the USD will get more debased.
And this is all because the issuance of unloved sovereign USTs will become greater and greater, as the opening data from the CBO in Q1 now makes factually clear.
Soon the Fed will run out of tricks within Treasury General Account (Yellen’s game) and the Reverse Repo Markets to generate fake liquidity for those over-supplied and under-demanded USTs.
And this means Powell will once again crank out the money printers at the Eccles Building to “buy” those IOUs.
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=dYzfxLTB
Fortunately, Powell has no machine in DC to produce physical gold, which means this natural precious metal of unlimited duration yet finite supply will rise, while USTs, an unnatural asset of finite duration yet infinite supply, will continue to sink.
It’s just that simple.
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- Post #12,172
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- Feb 2, 2024 9:05am Feb 2, 2024 9:05am
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January Jobs Shocker: Payrolls Explode By 353K, Double The Expected And Higher Than All Estimate As Wages Surge
https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b.../picture-5.jpg
BY TYLER DURDEN
FRIDAY, FEB 02, 2024 - 08:55 AM
Well, we did warn readers that anyone hoping for a negative print in an election year would be disappointed, and moments ago the BLS proved us right.
With Wall Street expecting a continued declines in the pace of monthly growth, and consensus looking for a decline from last month's 219K print to 185K, the BLS decided to once again show logic and common sense who is boss, and damn your mass tech layoff torpedoes...
Dear @BLS_gov, since you have trouble finding actual data, we've made it easy for you - here are the layoffs announced in the past few months:
1. Twitch: 35% of workforce
2. Hasbro: 20% of workforce
3. Spotify: 17% of workforce
4. Levi's: 15% of workforce
5. Zerox: 15% of…
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 31, 2024
... it reported that in January the US created a ridiculous 353K jobs...
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=YW7gqFJL
... double the 185K expected, and higher than than the highest forecast estimate, which as a reminder was 300K. In fact, as shown below, this was a 4-sigma beat to expectations...
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=UHS79aZI
... and putting the beat in the context of the past year, it was an absolute blowout:
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=G_e4QS6g
What is notable is that once again there was a huge dispersion between the Establishment and Household Surveys, and while the former indicated an increase of 353K, the latter reported a drop in Employment of 31K!
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=N9Ztv8Bk
Clearly none of that mattered to the BLS which had just one mission: to make the economy look double super good-good, and it wasn't just payrolls which blew away expectations, the unemployment rate also slipped, staying at 3.7%, vs expectations of an increase to 3.8%. That said, Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (3.6 percent), adult women (3.2 percent), teenagers (10.6 percent), Whites (3.4 percent), Blacks (5.3 percent), Asians (2.9 percent), and Hispanics (5.0 percent) showed little or no change in January.
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=sK7hLra4
More notable was the sudden jump in wages, with the BLS reporting that average hourly earnings increase 0.6% from December (and double the 0.3% estimated increase), rising 4.5% YoY, also blowing away estimates of a 4.1% increase.
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=IZPfCGKX
But, in keeping with the endless gimmicks by the BLS, this is not because of an actual wage increase but because people literally worked less (the denominator in the average hourly earnings equation) as the average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls decreased by 0.2 hour to 34.1 hours in January and is down by 0.5 hour over the year, down to the lowest level seen in the depths of the covid crisis.
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=0FIsDnve
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- Edited 9:24am Feb 2, 2024 9:14am | Edited 9:24am
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Gibson's Paradox
Aug 2, 2015·Alasdair Macleod
Gibson's paradox has defeated all the mainstream economists who have tried to resolve it, including Irving Fisher, John Maynard Keynes and Milton Friedman.
As Keynes noted, the paradox is that the price level and the nominal interest rate were positively correlated in the two centuries before he examined it in 1930.
Monetary theory posits the correlation should be between changes in the level of price inflation and interest rates. Empirical evidence shows there is no such correlation. The response from the Neo-Keynesian and monetarist schools has been to ignore Gibson's paradox instead of resolving it, so much so that few economics professors are aware of its existence today.
This paper explains the paradox in sound theoretical terms, and casts doubt on the assumptions behind the quantity theory of money, with important implications for monetary policy.
INTRODUCTION
Thomas Tooke in 1844 is generally thought to be the first to observe that the price level and nominal interest rates were positively correlated. It was Keynes who christened it Gibson's paradox after Alfred Gibson, a British economist who wrote about the correlation in 1923 in an article for Banker's Magazine. Keynes called it a paradox in 1930, because there was no satisfactory explanation for it. He wrote that "the price level and the nominal interest rate were positively correlated over long periods of economic history".1 Irving Fisher similarly had difficulties with it: "no problem in economics has been more hotly debated,"2 and even Milton Friedman was defeated: "The Gibson paradox remains an empirical phenomenon without a theoretical explanation".3 Others also attempted to resolve it, from Knut Wicksel4 to Barsky & Summers.5
Monetary theory would suggest the correlation should have been between changes in the level of price inflation and interest rates. This is the basis upon which central banks determine monetary policy, and now that the gold standard no longer exists, it is probably assumed by those that have looked at the paradox that it is no longer relevant. This appears to be a reasonable explanation for today's lack of interest in the subject, with many professional economists unaware of it.
Those economists who have examined the paradox generally agree that it existed. This paper will not go over their old ground other than to make a few pertinent observations:
• Data over the period covered, other than prices for British Government Consols cannot be deemed wholly reliable for two
reasons. Firstly, price data from 1730 to 1930, the period observed, cannot be rigorous; and secondly any observations of price levels by their nature must be selective and subjective as to their composition.
• Attempts to construct a theory to explain the paradox after the Second World War differ from earlier attempts, because the more recent academic consensus dismisses Say's Law, otherwise known as the law of the markets. Barsky & Summers in particular resort to mathematical explanations as part of their paper, thereby treating it as a problem of natural science and not a social science.
• The economists who have tackled the problem were unaware of the Austrian School's price and time-preference theories, or have dismissed them in favour of Neo-Keynesian and monetary economics. The silence of the Austrian School on the subject is an apparent anomaly.
The Author shows that the theoretical reasoning of the Austrian School leads to a satisfactory resolution of the paradox without having recourse to questionable statistics or mathematical method.
THE PARADOX
Gibson's paradox is based on the long-run empirical evidence between 1730 and 1930, a period of 200 years, when it was observed by Arthur Gibson that changes in the level of the yield on British Government Consols 2 ½% Stock positively correlated with the wholesale price level. No satisfactory theoretical explanation for this correlation has yet been published. It is shown in Chart 1 (Note: annual price data estimates from the Office for National Statistics are only available from 1750).
https://gm-media-library.s3.eu-west-...3a92f340f3.png
The quantity theory of money suggests that instead there should be a strong correlation between changes in interest rates and the rate of price inflation. However there is no discernible correlation between the two. Contrast Chart 2 below with Chart 1 above.
https://gm-media-library.s3.eu-west-...da048d1683.png
If Gibson's paradox is still relevant it presents a potential challenge to monetary policy. The question arises as to whether it is solely an empirical phenomenon of metallic, or sound money, or whether its validity persists to this day, hidden from us by the expansion of fiat currency and bank credit, and the central banks' success in substituting pure fiat currency in place of sound money. If the paradox is solely a consequence of metallic, or sound money, it might pose no threat to the modern currency system; otherwise it may have profound implications.
Modern macroeconomists appear ill-equipped to tackle this issue. The paradox is essentially a market phenomenon and macroeconomics is at odds with markets. An economist who favours macroeconomic theory will acknowledge a primary function of the state is to intervene in markets for a better outcome than a policy of laissez-faire; and that the needs and wants, the purposeful actions of ordinary people, collectively through markets free of exogenous factors, can be improved by government intervention. Yet it is ordinary people and their businesses that were behind the relationship between the interest rate on gold or gold substitutes and wholesale prices during the period the paradox was observed. For this reason an approach to the problem that is consistent with Say's law and denies the validity of conventional neo-classical economic theory is more likely to resolve the paradox.
WHY SAY'S LAW IS IMPORTANT
Say's law describes the fundamental framework within which markets work. By implication it holds that each one of us produces a good or service so that we can buy the goods and services we want: 6 we produce to consume so we are both producers and consumers. Put another way, we cannot acquire the wide range of things we need or want without providing our labour and specialist skills for profit, the profit we require to sustain ourselves. Furthermore, we may choose to defer some of this consumption for future use when it is surplus to our immediate needs. Deferred consumption is saving, the accumulation of wealth, which is either redeployed by the individual to maximise his own productive capacity, or made available to other individuals to enhance their skills for a return. The medium that facilitates all these activities is money, which effectively represents stored labour. It stands to reason that the money used has to be acceptable to all parties.
The primary purpose of money as a transaction medium is to enable all goods and services to be priced, thereby removing the inefficiencies of bartering. Money enables a buyer to compare the cost and benefits of one item against another, and for producers to compete and provide what consumers most want. The forum for this competition is the market, a term for an intangible entity, which facilitates the exchange of goods and services between producers and consumers. Consumers decide how they wish to allocate the fruits of their labour, and it is up to producers to anticipate and respond to these decisions. If someone is not productive and has no savings in order to consume and survive, he or she will require a subsidy, such as welfare or charity, provided from the surplus of other producers. Despite the flexibility money provides these human actions, they cannot be separated.
Therefore everyone is both a producer and consumer, or if unemployed, indirectly so. And it is the individual decision of the consumer what proportion of his production profit to put aside, or save for the future. Say's law describes economic reality, and was generally recognised as the fundamental law of economics until about 1930. But it was an inconvenient truth for some thinkers in the late nineteenth century, most notably for Karl Marx, who advocated state ownership of the means of production, and the national socialists of the early twentieth century who advocated state control of production through regulation. Both socialism and fascism were attempts by the state to subvert the free market process that allowed producers to have the freedom to respond to consumer demands, so both creeds contravened Say's law. Finally, Keynes began in the 1930s to work up a proposition to separate production from consumption and to dismantle the relationship between current and deferred consumption, which culminated in his General Theory, published in 1936.6
Keynes's influence on modern economics is fundamental to today's macroeconomic theories and has led to a widespread academic denial of Say's law. Modern academics, including Keynes himself, were therefore unsympathetic with the theoretical framework required to address the paradox, if only on the basis that it was commonly accepted over the period being considered. It is also an anomaly that the subject seems to have escaped the attention of London-based economists of the Austrian School, such as Robbins and Hayek for whom Say's law remained a fundamental basis of economic theory.
THE FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC BACKGROUND TO 1730-1930
Gibson's paradox was recorded in Britain, so we must first examine the social and economic conditions that pertained in order to understand the circumstances behind the paradox, and to eliminate the possibility it was the result of circumstances rather than evidence of sound theory yet to be explained.
The increase in the above-ground stock of gold, which was the foundation of money and all money substitutes for much of the time, was a potential factor over the period observed. Uses for gold included jewellery and other adornments as well as money mostly in the form of coin, so it is not possible to establish accurately the money quantity. The observation was of British prices and bond yields, so it is the quantity of gold in circulation as money in Britain which matters, though there is the secondary consideration of gold in circulation in the hands of Britain's trading partners. During the whole period with the exception of the 8 disruption caused by the Napoleonic wars, the quantity of gold was regulated between Britain and her trading partners solely by the demands of trade. Given the low level of peacetime intervention by governments in free markets at that time, differences in prices between countries were arbitraged through gold movements. We can therefore reasonably take the global quantity of aboveground gold stocks as indicative of the quantity of money in circulation regulated only by the market's requirements; though bank credit or the over-issue of unbacked money became an increasing cyclical factor following the Bank Charter Act of 1844.
Prior to the Napoleonic Wars, Britain began to build herself into the most powerful trading economy in history, aided by her overseas possessions and influence, together with the declining influence of Spain after the War of the Spanish Succession. The development of trade with India in the eighteenth century will have increased British demand for gold. The wars against France following the French Revolution were costly both socially, involving nearly half a million men in the army and navy, and financially leading to a drain on gold reserves. Prices rose, driven by the increase in unbacked money substitutes issued by the country banks, and by the diversion of financial resources to support the war effort. This led to the suspension of specie payments on demand against bank notes in 1797. By that time the public had become used to accepting bank notes as a valid substitute for gold, so it continued to accept them in lieu of specie.
Following the Napoleonic wars, the economy had to adjust to peacetime. The Bullion Committee, which had been formed in 1810, recommended a resumption of specie payments to address the problem of rising prices, a recommendation rejected by the government. It was not until 1819, when the war had been over for four years that a second committee under the chairmanship of Robert Peel again recommended a return to specie payments, and from 1821 onwards a gradual resumption of cash payments for banknotes resumed.
The over-issue of notes by the banks during the Napoleonic wars led to the failure of eighty country banks in 1825. This was followed by two Acts of Parliament: in 1826 restricting the Bank of England's monopoly to a radius sixty-five miles from London but permitting it to compete with branches in the provincial towns; and in 1833 withdrawing the Bank of England's monopoly altogether. Banks were then free as a consequence to expand from single-office operations into branch networks through a process of expansion and mergers. The foundation of today's British banks dates from this time.
During this period the debate about the future of money and banking intensified, with the banking school arguing that banks should be free to issue notes as they saw fit, so long as they were prepared to meet all demands for encashment into specie. The currency school argued instead for bank note issues to be tied strictly to specie held in reserves. The controversy between these two schools ended with the Bank Charter Act of 1844, which required the Bank of England to back its note issue with gold, with the exception of £14,000,000 of unbacked notes already in circulation. The intention was for Bank of England notes to gradually replace those issued by other banks in England and Wales (Scottish banks still issue their own notes to this day).
Thus it was that the Bank Charter Act of 1844 sided with the currency school, so far as the note issue was concerned; but by neglecting the issuance of credit, modern fractional reserve banking was born.
It can be seen that Gibson's paradox had to survive substantial variations of economic and monetary conditions likely to disrupt any correlation between the level of wholesale prices and interest rates. If there was a common factor over the two centuries, it was that the domestic UK economy expanded rapidly, facilitated initially by a developing network of canals, which in addition to river and sea navigation enabled the transport of goods throughout the country for the first time. As the industrial revolution progressed, the new science of thermodynamics led to the development of steam power, fuelled by coal which was found and mined in abundance. The mechanisation of factories and mills together with the subsequent development of railways rapidly increased both productivity and the speed of transport and communications. Her position as an important global power gave Britain access to raw materials and overseas markets to fuel economic and technological progress. Britain was so successful that before the First World War eighty per cent of all shipping afloat at that time had been built in Britain. Finally, in the post-war decade to 1930 Britain underwent massive social and political changes, which were generally destructive to the accumulated wealth of the previous century.
GOLD SUPPLY
Without an increase in the quantities of gold available the expansion of economic activity brought about by the industrial revolution would have been expected to lead to a trend of falling prices. As it was, new mines were discovered, notably in California, the Klondike, South and West Africa, and Australia. By 1730 the estimated aboveground stocks accumulated through history were about 2,400 tonnes, and by 1930 they had increased to 33,000 tonnes.7 Britain's population increased from roughly seven million to forty-five million. In other words, the quantity of gold available for money increased at roughly double the rate of the British population over the two centuries.
Other things being equal, the net monetary effect from the increase in the quantity of above-ground gold stocks can be expected to reduce its purchasing power relative to goods; but it is an historical fact that the rapid industrialisation over the period raised the standard of living and life expectancy for the average person considerably, thereby offsetting the inflationary price effects of increased above-ground stocks, so much so that prices appear to have fallen by 20% between 1820 and 1900 according to the ONS figures used in Chart 1.
THE QUANTITY THEORY OF MONEY
The quantity theory as it is generally understood today dates back to David Ricardo, who ignored the transient effects of changes in the 11 quantity of money on prices in favour of a long-run equilibrium outcome. In 1809 Ricardo took the position that the reason for the increase in prices at that time was due to the Bank of England's over-issue of notes. His interest in this respect glossed over the short-run distortions identified by Cantillon and Hume. In the Ricardian version an increase in the quantity of money would simply result in a corresponding rise in prices.
While this relationship is intuitive, it makes the mistake of dividing money from commodities and putting it into a separate category. An alternative view, consistent with the theories of the Austrian School, is to regard money as a commodity whose special purpose is to act as a fungible medium of exchange, retaining value between exchanges. This being the case, it must be questioned whether or not it is right to put money on one side of an equation and the price level on the other.
This is not to deny that a change in the quantity of money for a given quantity of goods affects prices. That it is likely to do so is consistent with the relationship between the relative quantities of any exchangeable commodities. Furthermore, there is an issue of preferences changing between the relative ownership of one commodity compared with another; in this case between an indexed basket of goods and money. Changes in the general level of cash liquidity can have a disproportionate effect on prices, irrespective of changes in the quantity of money in issue at the time.
By ignoring these considerations it is possible to conclude that changes in the quantity of money in circulation are sufficient to control the price level. It is this assumption that Gibson's paradox challenges. To modern macroeconomists the price of money is its rate of interest, though to followers of the Austrian school, this is a gross error. To them, the price of money is not the rate of interest, but the reciprocal of the price of a good bought or sold with it. Furthermore, under this logic money has several prices for each good or service, which will differ between different buyers and sellers depending on all the circumstances specific to a transaction. This is consistent with the Austrian school's observation that prices are 12 entirely subjective and they cannot be determined by formula.
Macroeconomics does not recognise this approach, and averages prices to arrive at an indexed price level. Austrian school economists argue that mathematical methods are wholly inappropriate applied to the real world. Apples cannot be averaged with gin, nor can gin be averaged even with another brand of gin. Averaging the money-values of different products cannot escape this reality.
The rate of interest on money is its time-preference; and again, depending on what the money is intended to be exchanged for its time-preference must match inversely that of the individual good. In other words, by deferring the delivery of a good and paying for it up-front it should be possible to acquire it at a discount. There is the possession of the money foregone, the uncertainty of the contract being fulfilled and the scarcity of the good, which all combine into a time-preference for a particular deferred transaction.
The quantity theory of money ignores this temporal element in the exchange of money for goods. In doing so, it fails to account for the fact that in free markets demand for money, reflected in its time-preference, must correlate with demand for goods.
The quantity theory, by putting money on one side of an equation and goods on another suggests the relationship is otherwise. This gives us an insight into why the quantity theory of money is flawed, and when we explore the Gibsonian relationship between interest rates and the price level it will become obvious why interest rates do not correlate with the rate of price inflation.
THE SOLUTION TO GIBSON'S PARADOX
In the discussion covering the flaws in the quantity theory of money in the previous section clues were given as to how the paradox might be resolved. The starting point is to recognise that money is simply a commodity, albeit with a special function, to act as the temporary store of labour between production and consumption.
We can see that including money, commodities necessary for human progress were in demand during a period of unprecedented economic expansion over the two centuries between 1730 and 1930. In some cases, such as in exchange for harvested grains, the price of gold would have varied from season to season, often wildly. But with all the individual goods, there will have been a match with their time-preferences between manufactured goods and gold and gold substitutes. Therefore, the interest rate on money offered by banks is the other side of the time-preferences of the goods produced by their borrowers, who were predominantly manufacturers and merchants seeking trade finance.
The reason interest rates are set by the demands for money by manufacturers is they have to expend capital in order to produce. Capital becomes one of two essential elements of the price of a future good, the other essential being profit. The capital value of an asset used in production is the sum of the value of output it generates discounted to its present value. If prices of goods are rising, the producer can increase his time-preference in the expectation of higher end-prices for his production. Alternatively, if prices are not rising, or even falling he is limited in his time-preference.
This explains why when prices generally rose, bond yields, as proxy for term interest rates paid by borrowers, also rose. Equally, when prices fell, a producer was less able to bid up his time preferences, so term interest rates fell. In other words, before central banks took upon themselves to control interest rates, interest rates simply correlated to demand for capital from producers.
This analysis of the relationship between prices is wholly in accordance with Carl Menger's insight, that a price only exists for commodities and goods for which supply is limited to less than potential demand.8
POST-1930
After 1930 the paradox was still observed until the 1970s, when the relationship appeared to break down.
https://gm-media-library.s3.eu-west-...febdab1363.png
In the 1970s price inflation according to the ONS accelerated from 5.4% in 1969, to 17.1% in 1974. During that time the Bank of England only increased interest rates under pressure from the markets. Interest rate policy fed a growing preference for hoarding goods and reducing personal cash balances. In this case, the correlation between bond yields and the price level reflected a shift in public confidence in the future purchasing power of the currency, which drove the time-preferences in the market, instead of widespread demand for capital investment.
Bond yields topped out in autumn 1974 before declining; but interest rates finally peaked in 1979/80. This is not fully reflected in the bond yield shown in Chart 4, because the yield curve was sharply negative at that time.
Since that tumultuous decade correlation ceased, and the Bank of England appears to have gained control over interest rates from markets.
It is hardly surprising that when central banks implement monetary policies to ensure that the price level never falls, the normal relationship between the price level and interest rates is interrupted. The relationship between savers and investing producers, which is the basis of the Gibson observation, becomes impaired.
CONCLUSION
The following question was raised earlier in this paper:
If Gibson's paradox is still relevant it presents a potential challenge to monetary policy. The question arises as to whether it is solely an empirical phenomenon of metallic, or sound money, or whether its validity persists to this day, hidden from us by the expansion of fiat currency and bank credit, and the central banks' success in substituting pure fiat currency in place of sound money. If the Paradox is solely a consequence of metallic or sound money it might pose no threat to the modern currency system; otherwise it may have profound implications.
It is clear that the difference between markets historically and those of today is that interest rates were set by the demand for savings to invest in production, while today they are set by monetary policy. Monetary policy is not consistent with the basic function of interest rates, which is to reflect a market rate between savers and borrowers to balance supply and demand. Instead, monetarists believe otherwise, that interest rates can be used to regulate the quantity of money.
Gibson's paradox is not dependent on metallic or sound money so much as it is dependent on free markets distributing savings in accordance with demand from borrowers investing in their businesses. We must therefore conclude that monetary policies intended to suppress this effect do have profound implications.
Keynes in his General Theory in 1936 wrote the following in his concluding notes:
"I see, therefore, the rentier aspect of capitalism as a transitional phase which will disappear when it has done its work. And with the disappearance of its rentier aspect much else in it besides will suffer a sea-change. It will be, moreover, a great advantage of the order of events I am advocating, that the euthanasia of the rentier, of the functionless investor, will be nothing sudden, merely a gradual but prolonged continuance of what we have seen recently in Great Britain, and will need no revolution."9
The long, slow euthanasia of Keynes's rentier class is what has changed. Businesses obtain the funds for investment from other sources directed by the financial system. Savers are channelled increasingly into stock markets, where they participate in businesses as co-owners, instead of lending to them indirectly through the banking system. The banks provide working capital, mainly through the expansion of bank credit, at rates primarily determined not by supply and demand for savings, but set by central banks.
Central banks' insistence on monetary solutions to economic problems have not only buried the Say's law relationship between savers and investing entrepreneurs, they have turned the principal objective of entrepreneurs from patient wealth creation through the accumulation of profits into ephemeral wealth creation through the accumulation of debt. They have been caught up in a credit cycle created by central banks and are no longer borrowing genuine savings from savers who expect to be repaid. If Gibson's paradox had been satisfactorily explained by Tooke or Gibson, the assumptions behind the quantity theory of money and its derivatives would have been thrown into doubt before they became central to monetary policy.
This is a dramatic claim perhaps, but it might have demolished the suppositions behind the quantity theory of money, which became Fisher's equation of exchange, and the brand of monetarism followed by the Chicago school under Milton Friedman. Misleading ideas, such as velocity of circulation in the equation of exchange would have not been taken as meaningful economic indicators. As it is Gibson's paradox is unknown to the majority of economists today, who assume the quantity theory of money is unchallengeable.
So, to put the explanation of Gibson's paradox at its simplest,
If the prices of goods are expected to rise, then their time preferences are bound to increase, and if they are expected to fall, their time preferences are bound to fall. That is why interest rates correlate with the price level.
Click here to view the entire Whitepaper as a PDF...
1 J M KEYNES, A TREATISE ON MONEY, VOL.2 P.1981930
2 IRVING FISHER, THE THEORY OF INTEREST, 1930.
3 FRIEDMAN AND SCHWARTZ, FROM GIBSON TO FISHER, EXPLORATIONS IN ECONOMIC RESEARCH NBER VOL. 3,2 (SPRING)
4 KNUT WICKSEL, INTEREST AND PRICES, 1936, TRANSLATED FROM THE GERMAN, GELDZINS UND GUTERPREISER, 1898.
5 NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES NO. 1680 GIBSON'S PARADOX AND THE GOLD STANDARD, 1985.
6 J M KEYNES, THE GENERAL THEORY OF EMPLOYMENT, INTEREST AND MONEY, 1936.
7 JAMES TURK, THE ABOVEGROUND GOLD STOCK: ITS IMPORTANCE AND ITS SIZE SEPT 2012 HTTPS://WWW.GOLDMONEY.COM/IMAGES/MED...DGOLDSTOCK.PDF (ACCESSED JULY 2015)
8 CARL MENGER: GRUNDSÄTZE DER VOLKSWIRTSCHAFTSLEHRE (PRINCIPLES OF ECONOMICS)1871.
9 JM KEYNES: THE GENERAL THEORY OF EMPLOYMENT, INTEREST AND MONEY PP 376 OF THE 1936 EDITION.
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- Feb 2, 2024 9:26am Feb 2, 2024 9:26am
- | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 11,456 Posts
CONCLUSION
The following question was raised earlier in this paper:
If Gibson's paradox is still relevant it presents a potential challenge to monetary policy. The question arises as to whether it is solely an empirical phenomenon of metallic, or sound money, or whether its validity persists to this day, hidden from us by the expansion of fiat currency and bank credit, and the central banks' success in substituting pure fiat currency in place of sound money. If the Paradox is solely a consequence of metallic or sound money it might pose no threat to the modern currency system; otherwise it may have profound implications.
It is clear that the difference between markets historically and those of today is that interest rates were set by the demand for savings to invest in production, while today they are set by monetary policy. Monetary policy is not consistent with the basic function of interest rates, which is to reflect a market rate between savers and borrowers to balance supply and demand. Instead, monetarists believe otherwise, that interest rates can be used to regulate the quantity of money.
Gibson's paradox is not dependent on metallic or sound money so much as it is dependent on free markets distributing savings in accordance with demand from borrowers investing in their businesses. We must therefore conclude that monetary policies intended to suppress this effect do have profound implications.
Keynes in his General Theory in 1936 wrote the following in his concluding notes:
"I see, therefore, the rentier aspect of capitalism as a transitional phase which will disappear when it has done its work. And with the disappearance of its rentier aspect much else in it besides will suffer a sea-change. It will be, moreover, a great advantage of the order of events I am advocating, that the euthanasia of the rentier, of the functionless investor, will be nothing sudden, merely a gradual but prolonged continuance of what we have seen recently in Great Britain, and will need no revolution."9
The long, slow euthanasia of Keynes's rentier class is what has changed. Businesses obtain the funds for investment from other sources directed by the financial system. Savers are channelled increasingly into stock markets, where they participate in businesses as co-owners, instead of lending to them indirectly through the banking system. The banks provide working capital, mainly through the expansion of bank credit, at rates primarily determined not by supply and demand for savings, but set by central banks.
Central banks' insistence on monetary solutions to economic problems have not only buried the Say's law relationship between savers and investing entrepreneurs, they have turned the principal objective of entrepreneurs from patient wealth creation through the accumulation of profits into ephemeral wealth creation through the accumulation of debt. They have been caught up in a credit cycle created by central banks and are no longer borrowing genuine savings from savers who expect to be repaid. If Gibson's paradox had been satisfactorily explained by Tooke or Gibson, the assumptions behind the quantity theory of money and its derivatives would have been thrown into doubt before they became central to monetary policy.
This is a dramatic claim perhaps, but it might have demolished the suppositions behind the quantity theory of money, which became Fisher's equation of exchange, and the brand of monetarism followed by the Chicago school under Milton Friedman. Misleading ideas, such as velocity of circulation in the equation of exchange would have not been taken as meaningful economic indicators. As it is Gibson's paradox is unknown to the majority of economists today, who assume the quantity theory of money is unchallengeable.
So, to put the explanation of Gibson's paradox at its simplest,
If the prices of goods are expected to rise, then their time preferences are bound to increase, and if they are expected to fall, their time preferences are bound to fall. That is why interest rates correlate with the price level.
Click here to view the entire Whitepaper as a PDF...
1 J M KEYNES, A TREATISE ON MONEY, VOL.2 P.1981930
2 IRVING FISHER, THE THEORY OF INTEREST, 1930.
3 FRIEDMAN AND SCHWARTZ, FROM GIBSON TO FISHER, EXPLORATIONS IN ECONOMIC RESEARCH NBER VOL. 3,2 (SPRING)
4 KNUT WICKSEL, INTEREST AND PRICES, 1936, TRANSLATED FROM THE GERMAN, GELDZINS UND GUTERPREISER, 1898.
5 NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES NO. 1680 GIBSON'S PARADOX AND THE GOLD STANDARD, 1985.
6 J M KEYNES, THE GENERAL THEORY OF EMPLOYMENT, INTEREST AND MONEY, 1936.
7 JAMES TURK, THE ABOVEGROUND GOLD STOCK: ITS IMPORTANCE AND ITS SIZE SEPT 2012 HTTPS://WWW.GOLDMONEY.COM/IMAGES/MED...DGOLDSTOCK.PDF (ACCESSED JULY 2015)
8 CARL MENGER: GRUNDSÄTZE DER VOLKSWIRTSCHAFTSLEHRE (PRINCIPLES OF ECONOMICS)1871.
9 JM KEYNES: THE GENERAL THEORY OF EMPLOYMENT, INTEREST AND MONEY PP 376 OF THE 1936 EDITION.
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- Post #12,175
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- Edited 9:55am Feb 2, 2024 9:33am | Edited 9:55am
- | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 11,456 Posts
Disliked{quote} Hey Mr Bruce, Shalom. i am back after a long break due to my family matter. would you mind explaining me the above quote I asked you around 6 months ago. waiting your reply anxiously. thanks and take care and one more thing, I do not see your forecast for this quarter for Gold and so on.Ignored
Welcome back
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- Post 12,090
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- Nov 24, 2023 7:07am | Edited 7:31am
Don't just proclaim that you are a trader.
Trader does not mean that the sole objective is to make money. The moment you come with money making as the sole and only objective , you are out of the game anyways and part of the larger crowd which is unsuccessful
Do things which can identify you as a professional trader - learn the process, understand and follow risk management and position sizing. Be disciplined and understand that trading is a long haul.
Each day around 8:30 AM to 9:30 AM Eastern Standard Time, I determine whether we have RISK ON or RISK OFF.
There is no indicator that can do this just as no technical indicator can effectively predict what will happen moment to moment as one MAJOR fundamental fact whether GEOPOLITICAL or FINANCIAL or now SUPPLY CHAIN or some New Covid 19 variant can cause the markets to go down 1000 points as the Dow 30 has been doing recently and will continue to do.
That is why my Unique Method of Forex trading developed during 2003 when I started trading Forex and later on during 2012 when I added to my business model and started teaching my unique 100% proven method of Money Flow trading.
It is no longer possible to trade without a STOP LOSS PERIOD.
Having a STOP LOSS of fewer than 100 PIPS is not a good strategy. That leads me to explain why most of the 95% of all Retail Forex Traders lose. They trade with small amounts of money and SCALP which makes it almost impossible to make profits over a period of one year because of the VIOLENT NATURE of the swings in the Asset Classes caused by world changing events.
Each Forex Trade that you do should not risk more than 2% of your trading Capital and that is based on trading Capital of $50,000 US Dollars INITIALLY learning on a $50,000 US Funds Demo account just as I did for a period of three years before I made my first Real Funds Trade.
PLEASE GO WITH THE MONEY FLOW
Let us review what we teach and why it works if YOU WORK.
Without your WORK then you are just wasting your time and probably your money.
There is no such thing as Political Correctness here because we are here to teach and share our knowledge.
SO.... going back to our winning FORMULA for FOREX SUCCESS.
20% of the SUCCESS is yourself the Forex Trader.
20% of the SUCCESS is your EDGE which we teach you and that is Money Flow Trading.
20% of the SUCCESS is control of your RISK (Your hard earned money) Our UNIQUE RISK MANAGEMENT allows you to trade without worry, fear and greed. Of course we want to make sure that you have the right qualities to be a winning Forex Trader so our course is for a period of three months, so we can teach you the right trading methods and we can see your results and make adjustments without your FEAR OF LOSS of Real Money.
20% of the SUCCESS is using and understanding the USE of Technical Indicators which include not only the common ones. It includes the understanding of Supply and Demand. Support and Resistance and the use of Pivot Points which you can see each day on our daily charts that cover ALL our Trade Plans which we also help you develop and explain WHY. These are our Winning Trade Plans that we review every three months or earlier if circumstances in the markets require that.
20% of the SUCCESS is the FUNDAMENTALS, which are much more than Data Releases each day around the world. It includes reports and articles extremely well researched as you can clearly see from this article that explains why the TREND in the Equity Markets especially in North America is DOWN. By understanding the difference between PERCEPTIONS (MARKETS) and REALITY, you then have a good handle on REALITY before the MASSES do and you are not surprised when events eventually unfold.
When successful traders aren't trading, they are researching, developing, and innovating. When unsuccessful traders aren't trading, they're staring at screens and forcing trades. There is nothing better for trading psychology than being at the cutting edge of a growing business.
What makes a trader successful is discipline: doing the right thing with fidelity. What keeps a trader successful is innovation: doing new things and turning them into disciplines.
Thursday, September 25, 2014
A Preview of Trading Psychology 2.0: From Best Practices to Best Processes
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-4zHYD5MY44...teenbarger.jpg
One of the great disappointments I encounter when I read writings on the topic of trading psychology is that they invariably touch upon the same themes: discipline, controlling emotions, etc. Having worked with traders and portfolio managers for over a decade now, there is so much more to the psychology of trading than "sticking to your process" that I decided I had to write a book about what I was experiencing but wasn't reading. The title reflects that interest: Trading Psychology 2.0: From Best Practices to Best Processes.
I think Ted Hayes hit on something important in his recent interview. He pointed out that the personality traits relevant to success among early career traders are different from those that generate success for experienced ones. Perhaps so much writing concerns discipline and emotional control, because those are the dominant concerns of the new traders who buy the books, haunt the websites, and seek the help.
At several of the firms where I work, no one even gets an interview unless they have years of experience managing significant capital with a solid track record of profitability and risk management. So by the time those traders join the firm, discipline and emotional control are not screaming priorities. Instead, they deal with other challenges. In Trading Psychology 2.0, I refer to these challenges by A-B-C:
* Adapting to changing markets
* Building on strengths
* Creating creativity
In adapting to different markets by leveraging their strengths and generating new ideas, successful market participants are not so different from successful businesses in fast-changing industries, such as technology or social media. When markets change from year to year, stasis is a formula for failure. The successful trader, like the successful tech firm, must constantly innovate. Moreover, once traders generate those innovations, they must turn best practices--what they do that is successful--and turn them into robust, best processes.
I think this is very, very important: What makes a trader successful is discipline: doing the right thing with fidelity. What keeps a trader successful is innovation: doing new things and turning them into disciplines. Conscientiousness makes for success, but it is openness that makes for adaptation. Trading psychology as a field has done a fine job of articulating the importance of discipline. My hope is that the new book will broaden the discussion to include a research-informed look at mastering change and innovation.
In order to be able to help you better it is VERY IMPORTANT that you share your thoughts and your QUESTIONS.
For further information please send me an email to [email protected]
- https://assets.faireconomy.media/nfs...ar392875_2.gif BenjaminIs
- | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 10,691 Posts | Online Now
Good day fellow traders on Forex Factory. I have been trading Forex for over 20 years now and with the incredible movements on a monthly basis which has been caused by the intervention efforts of the world's central banks trading today is much different trading before 2008. Thus RISK MANAGEMENT must be a priority for any serious forex currency trader. You should never RISK more than 5% of your trading capital on any one trade plan. I also strongly suggest that you never trade more than 20% of your total trading capital at anytime. Example - If you are trading $50,000 in US Funds NEVER have more than 20% or $10,000 US Dollars on your various trade plans always using the 5% rule for risk on each trade plan being used.
The Money Flow Trading Method is based each trading day on Risk On or Risk Off which means are the markets heading down or heading up. I use the DOW to determine this each day. When the markets head down and we have Risk Off the money flows into US Dollars first and then the money is parked usually into US Bonds so the bonds go up and the yield goes down. Money also flows to GOLD.
I will give more explanations when the forex markets reopen on Sunday. If you have any comments or questions please post them on this thread. Tomorrow we have two important events the most important being the referendum in Italy.
The results will move the markets whichever result we see. This is a Fundamental Fact and that combined with Technical Indicators as to Support and Resistance along with investor perception of the meaning of the results short term will lead the direction of the market. I will be thinking of going short on USD/JPY depending on the results of course and Risk being off.
- Post #12,176
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- Feb 2, 2024 9:58am Feb 2, 2024 9:58am
- | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 11,456 Posts
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"The Fed Has To Pay Attention" To This 'Simply Stunning' Payrolls Report
https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b.../picture-5.jpg
BY TYLER DURDEN
FRIDAY, FEB 02, 2024 - 09:09 AM
Authored by Peter Tchir via Academy Securities,
A simply stunning jobs report!
The highest estimate for the Establishment number was 300k and the report beat that high estimate, quite handily, coming in at 353k!
Not only that, but we broke a string of downward revisions, by adding 126k in total to the past 2 reports, with the bulk of that revision for the December report! Back to back months over 300k is impressive and is maybe why confidence numbers have been so high?
Simply a stunning number of jobs created (according to the Establishment survey).
Even the Household survey was barely negative (Establishment shows 700k job gains past 2 months, while Household is at -700k) making this report more consistent than prior reports.
Unemployment ticked down, but only because labor participation shrunk by 0.1% - something I don’t like to see, but not a major move.
One “outlier” if you can call it that on this report, is that average hours worked declined from 34.3 to 34.1, which is viewed as a sign of weakness. But that weakness isn’t anywhere else in this report.
Hourly earnings are great if you get earnings! 0.6% on the month, which is the highest since March 2022! If you are worried about inflation, and I am, that is a mildly disturbing statistic. Last month’s annual number was revised up to 4.3% and this month’s annual number topped that at 4.5%! That takes us back to September levels and unwinds a trend of declines. The Fed has to pay attention to this!
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=X0fQGTpC
If you believe the numbers, and I’m sure I’m not the only person skeptical about the numbers, not only is March completely off the table, the “pivot” talk may have to be walked back.
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=Az8IC2bJ
While the Fed said “data dependent” the market heard “watching the data to know when to cut”. This data, if supported by any signs of inflation (don’t forget consumer spending has remained strong) may force Powell’s hand to backtrack on cut talks. It is premature to think that, but as the wage growth data sinks in, more discussions about the appropriateness of pivot will pop up.
Bottom Line
If you believe the numbers, price in few cuts, start later, and push longer term yields much higher.
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=989fm-Si
I expect only a portion of that move will get priced in, because the numbers are so stunning they are almost unbelievable!
The one thing that gives me a degree of confidence that the numbers might be realistic, is because of the confidence and spending data we’ve been seeing, which has surprised to the upside, but maybe it shouldn’t have been a surprise if jobs are back to plentiful and raises are the norm.
- Post #12,177
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- Feb 2, 2024 7:53pm Feb 2, 2024 7:53pm
- | Joined Mar 2014 | Status: Member | 802 Posts
Disliked{quote} dear loveandpeace welcome back please send me an e transfer to [email protected] ("[email protected]") for $125.00 so you can have all your questions answered and take my 90 day forex trading course. www.avielforexlearningedge.com https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=i5&t=ym www.avielforexlearningedge.com testimonials "after the first meeting, i turned my financials over to aviel forex learning edge. They go above and...Ignored
are you kidding me, i already pad your fees. I have the proof, do you want me to upload here ??
- Post #12,178
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- Feb 3, 2024 6:28am Feb 3, 2024 6:28am
- | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 11,456 Posts
Disliked{quote} are you kidding me, i already pad your fees. I have the proof, do you want me to upload here ??Ignored
I trust you. Please upload just for my records.
Read the posts carefully on page 609 then ask me any questions that you have.
Please open a new $50,000 US dollars Demo account with Friedberg Direct and post your user name here and email me your password to [email protected]
Thank you loveandpeace
- Post #12,179
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- Feb 3, 2024 7:19am Feb 3, 2024 7:19am
- | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 11,456 Posts
The Bond Market's Bearish Message For Stocks
https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b.../picture-5.jpg
BY TYLER DURDEN
SUNDAY, NOV 05, 2023 - 11:00 AM
Authored by Jesse Felder via TheFelderReport.com,
There’s a growing disconnect between the prices of stocks and bonds.
"It seems bonds are adjusting to a post-QE world but for some reason equities haven't. If you had told me that rates were gonna be where the are now on Jan. 1 and earnings would be flat and the S&P would be up 12-13%, that's not part of my process." https://t.co/IkAAQkkgBK
— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) November 1, 2023
Bonds have begun to reflect the reality of a “post-QE world” while stocks have yet to do so.
"The historical relationship between bond yields and the S&P 500 P/E multiple suggests that the recent disconnect can be corrected in one of two ways — either the equity market has further downside or yields will move lower." https://t.co/AKvLOrUJ1x pic.twitter.com/5kELvTpJn0
— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) October 31, 2023
Moreover, the growing “liquidity hole” suggests bonds may not yet be done pricing it in.
'If the T-bill rate stays at 5% or higher, to get a risk premium in bonds you need a bond yield of 5.5% or higher. And given the liquidity hole, demand will need to come from private sector investors, who will require a risk premium relative to cash.' https://t.co/PtBw3eW5AX
— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) October 31, 2023
Meanwhile, the message being sent by the yield curve is not, by any means, bullish for the broad stock market.
'The arrows in the graph below show the occasions where the spread between the 3-month T-Bill yield and the 10-year T-Bond yield was inverted, and it either became un-inverted, or the slope of the curve steepened by at least 100 basis points.' https://t.co/0T80AgQKTL pic.twitter.com/zi9kHKOBNO
— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) October 30, 2023
And the forward guidance out of the corporate sector apparently confirms this view.
'At just over the half-way mark of the reporting period, "weak demand" is among the top trending phrases on earnings calls. If the pace of mentions holds for the next few weeks, it would be the most on record, according to data going back to 2000.' https://t.co/3jQDCthcH4 pic.twitter.com/sg3a6hVxrj
— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) November 3, 2023
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- Post #12,180
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- Feb 3, 2024 7:24am Feb 3, 2024 7:24am
- | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 11,456 Posts
US jobs surge means no March rate cut
Author
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James Knightley
The blowout January jobs report – payrolls surging, wages jumping, unemployment falling – means the Federal Reserve will be in no hurry to cut interest rates. Nonetheless, we acknowledge that this report contradicts lots of evidence elsewhere while the big drop in hours worked and growing proportion of part-time workers gives pause for thought
In this article
Crazy strong jobs number means Fed will waitBut there are areas of concern and data contradictionsFed will still to cut rates, but nothing before May
https://think.ing.com/articles/us-jo...march-rate-cut
The latest Nonfarm Payroll numbers smashed expectations
353,000
Number of jobs added in January
US Nonfarm payrolls
Better than expected
Crazy strong jobs number means Fed will wait
January’s US employment report is crazy strong. Payrolls surged 353k versus 185k consensus, where the even highest forecast of 300k was well shy of the outcome, especially when we add in the 126k of upward revisions to the past two months of data. As the chart below shows, the momentum in job creation is on the rise again, but this time, it isn’t merely the leisure & hospitality, government and education & healthcare services, which accounted for 80% of the jobs added in 2023.
For sure, education and health were the biggest drivers, adding 112k, but the government added a relatively modest (by its standard) 36k jobs while leisure and hospitality saw payrolls increase just 11k. This month, we got a decent 74k increase in professional/business services plus 64k in trade & transport with 45k added in retail.
US non farm payrolls monthly changes (000s)
Macrobond, ING
On top of that, we have average hourly earnings rising 0.6%MoM/4.5% YoY, whereas the market had been predicting only a 0.3% increase. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remained at 3.7% rather than rising to 3.8%. This combination of strong jobs and wages with unemployment falling indicates clear strength in the US economy and even though inflation is still tracking towards 2% the Federal Reserve simply won’t consider cutting rates at the March FOMC meeting.
But there are areas of concern and data contradictions
However, we have to point out there are some less positive stories here. Nearly all the jobs the American economy is adding are part-time, and the average workweek fell to 34.1 hours – that is recession territory! Note that while the number of unemployed fell, the household survey (remember there are two surveys - the establishment survey of employers to generate the payrolls number and the household survey to generate the unemployment rate) showed employment falling 31k.
Part time versus full time employment levels (millions)
Macrobond, ING
Fed will still to cut rates, but nothing before May
Moreover, labour market surveys are far, far weaker, with both the ISM manufacturing and services sector surveys in contraction territory - indicating job shedding. In this regard, we will be closely watching the ISM services employment index update on Monday. It collapsed in January, and if it doesn’t dramatically rebound, then we would be worried that payrolls could soon start to roll over. Note, too, that yesterday’s NFIB hiring intentions survey was very weak. These payroll numbers can’t keep running at 300k+ given this data.
ISM services employment plunge points to weakness in payrolls
Macrobond, ING
So, as is the case in so much of the US data flow, there are huge contradictions between data releases and even within data releases. There will be no March interest rate cut (barring a return of financial system stress), but we are sticking with the May rate cut call with 150bp of cuts this year and 100bp in 2025