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USDCAD trend reversal?

  • #1,041
  • Jun 22, 2007 12:48pm Jun 22, 2007 12:48pm
...that's actually a very nice analysis (both on technicals and fundamentals) but i am still short. the multi-year highs against the dollar (only last month)can still be breached in my opinion.
  • #1,042
  • Jun 22, 2007 1:00pm Jun 22, 2007 1:00pm
Usd/Cad

Here is the Bigger Picture
----------------------------------
This chart should be plastered all over the News
as far as I/m concerned ..................................
-----------------------------------------------------
But you won't see it , because they don't know its there !

( See Below )
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CAD-6-22-2007-#5.jpg Size: 51 KB
  • #1,043
  • Edited 1:30pm Jun 22, 2007 1:02pm | Edited 1:30pm
Pg-2...............

The Cad/ dollar price appears to be contained in this channel ....

Which way will price break ?.....

Well ,I really don't know - I am no Guru

I am only a humble student of the Elliott Waves as a trading strategy
and in here sharing Ideas Visually so you can all see .....
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CAD-6-22-2007-#1.jpg Size: 82 KB
  • #1,044
  • Jun 22, 2007 1:05pm Jun 22, 2007 1:05pm
Quoting marketwavez
Hi there
Small comment here

The Longer-Term Charts when in a long-term down trend
( Like in Usd/Cad ) these days will take longer to reach its upside targets !

1 hr bars adnd 15 min bars
will reach targets within a the day or within 3- 5 days .............
( if support holds going long )

Everyrthing is Proprtionate -

- Another thing to note is that
markets tend to fall at faster rate that they rise .

Down Trend = Fear

Uptrend = Greed

-----------------------------------
Which is the Stronger Emotion ?............

----------------------------------------
Here is a Long-term chart

MONTHLY CHART
-It took years for this decline to happen and more importantly there is no base built at the bottom yet
so now go and as Bravado what he thinks ....... He will also explain .
Bulls climb stairs, bears fall out of windows.
  • #1,045
  • Jun 22, 2007 1:07pm Jun 22, 2007 1:07pm
Quoting wjonass2
Bulls climb stairs, bears fall out of windows.
...but at least the bears recover; the bulls just keep on climbing regardless - until they commit suicide
  • #1,046
  • Jun 22, 2007 2:07pm Jun 22, 2007 2:07pm
Quoting marketwavez
Hi there
Small comment here

The Longer-Term Charts when in a long-term down trend
( Like in Usd/Cad ) these days will take longer to reach its upside targets !

1 hr bars adnd 15 min bars
will reach targets within a the day or within 3- 5 days .............
( if support holds going long )

Everyrthing is Proprtionate -

- Another thing to note is that
markets tend to fall at faster rate that they rise .

Down Trend = Fear

Uptrend = Greed

-----------------------------------
Which is the Stronger Emotion ?............

----------------------------------------
Here is a Long-term chart

MONTHLY CHART
-It took years for this decline to happen and more importantly there is no base built at the bottom yet
so now go and as Bravado what he thinks ....... He will also explain .
Well I can understand a it takes time on a monthly chart to see anything but it seems to me you would at least want some kind of confirmation from the daily chart before you take this long for any length of time at least. I mean sure you can scrap a few pips out long going against the trend, but people have been going long on this thing since 1.11 Looking at a daily chart all i see is Consolidation with a good resistance around 1.0735. You got a big move because of soft sales on the CAD. Shows up great on a 30 min chart. But will that move last. Canada is talking of raising their rates once or twice this year as a possibility.
It is hard to sat which way this will go. It is poised for some retracement I feel but time will tell. I prefer to wait. I do like charts by the way.
  • #1,047
  • Jun 22, 2007 2:08pm Jun 22, 2007 2:08pm
Quoting wjonass2
Bulls climb stairs, bears fall out of windows.
At least I have a few hundred pips to land on.
  • #1,048
  • Jun 22, 2007 2:29pm Jun 22, 2007 2:29pm
Same as maarketwavez with B complete
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"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #1,049
  • Jun 22, 2007 2:35pm Jun 22, 2007 2:35pm
a 4hr usdx
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"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #1,050
  • Jun 22, 2007 3:47pm Jun 22, 2007 3:47pm
Is there a Free version of Elliot Wave Analyzer software that one can download ?
  • #1,051
  • Edited 10:27am Jun 23, 2007 10:00am | Edited 10:27am
Quoting akhan
Is there a Free version of Elliot Wave Analyzer software that one can download ?
Are you new to applying Elliott Waves to charts ?
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Looking for Free software , - Forget it !.......

..............Look for Books or
.............Look for Training Videos
.............Look for Instructional Dvd's

Learn to see the waves by hand and by your eye ......
it will take time to get proficient and to find your trading style
maybe 6 months or more ...............
--------------------------------------------------------------------
When it comes to education in trading Elliott Waves you must
first study Money Management - and what's called Position Sizing .
Chart patterns and Elliott waves mean nothing without
first learning to understanding these .....
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Why ? ,
because
Trading is about Your ability to Anlayze Risk and Protect your Assets .............

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Get some books on Money Management
read the money management threads in this forum ........

, and use trend lines in the free software you already have to draw
your waves and practice , practice , practice !

----------------------------------------------------------------------------
start here .... read this thread
cick here http://forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=23617
take care
  • #1,052
  • Jun 23, 2007 10:39am Jun 23, 2007 10:39am
forget eliot waves......best trading is done with a simple system.....K.I.S.S. "keep it simple stupid"
there are a lot of much less complictd strategies here on the forum that do very well with alot less stress....... just my two pips........
also the trend the usd/yen has been on hardly needs waves to tell you when to trade...... A blind duck with a glass eye in it's ass can see that......
Same Whore .... Different Dress
  • #1,053
  • Jun 23, 2007 10:40am Jun 23, 2007 10:40am
Quoting johnedoe
forget eliot waves......best trading is done with a simple system.....K.I.S.S. "keep it simple stupid"
there are a lot of much less complictd strategies here on the forum that do very well with alot less stress....... just my two pips........
I am in total agreement with you, johnedoe!
  • #1,054
  • Jun 23, 2007 11:24am Jun 23, 2007 11:24am
I always thought that Elliot Waves look fantastic in hindsight, but when it comes to apply them in the burning end of the chart, they become pretty "bleh".
  • #1,055
  • Jun 23, 2007 4:43pm Jun 23, 2007 4:43pm
Quoting johnedoe
forget eliot waves......best trading is done with a simple system.....K.I.S.S. "keep it simple stupid"
there are a lot of much less complictd strategies here on the forum that do very well with alot less stress....... just my two pips........
also the trend the usd/yen has been on hardly needs waves to tell you when to trade...... A blind duck with a glass eye in it's ass can see that......
there is more than way to trade
and there are many strategies

this cross kiss simple system works in trending market
there is no disputing that , but what about when the market gets choppy ?

as I said before
-We all get it wrong some times !
Elliott waves and th Kiss system you speak of are not perfect !.... Nothing in trading is perfect !

--------------------------------------------------------------------
No matter what strategy you decide use :
Succesful Trading is about your Averages over time ....
and managing the Risk of the individual trades you decide to take !
  • #1,056
  • Jun 23, 2007 5:07pm Jun 23, 2007 5:07pm
And anyway, what exactly does a KISS system look like? long when 5 EMA crosses above 13 EMA and viceversa?
  • #1,057
  • Jun 23, 2007 6:13pm Jun 23, 2007 6:13pm
This shot counted out by major intermediate and minor swing points calls for these above as minimum typical and maximum targets.0750-0795.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenHunter_1.jpg Size: 56 KB
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #1,058
  • Edited 8:26pm Jun 23, 2007 7:47pm | Edited 8:26pm
Hello Orions

can you repost this chart ?

with the black background its too dark
i cant read what the labels on it are saying

Make it a white background
and take out the red volume bars
volume is not necessary in Elliott's Waves
( Nelson Elliott did not use volume)

Thanx alot

- I will give you some feede back
  • #1,059
  • Jun 23, 2007 8:09pm Jun 23, 2007 8:09pm
In reference to Bravado post #989; THANKS for the heads up chart. When I saw the bear flag I immediately entered short @ 1.0740 Thurs eve. Fri morn it struck my limit @ 1.0669, +71 pips. Thanks again, keep up with the nice charts.
  • #1,060
  • Jun 24, 2007 2:09am Jun 24, 2007 2:09am
if in coming couple days or maybe week cable goes through red rectangle (see pic [USDCAD-4H]) it may go higher!!!!! BUt if not it will go down through it's supp. line (green on pic). I think there is little probability that we'll see cable under rectangle....but who knows?!?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad4h.jpg Size: 63 KB
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