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Hedging/averaging trades without prediction

  • #2,541
  • Nov 17, 2023 1:46am Nov 17, 2023 1:46am
Quoting mtako
Mates, there are infinite ways to calculate price (indicators) and even more different ways to exploit them in trading(yes, more than infinite, and I stand by my word!) Making many EaS does not make their results any more valuable. Coding is giving instructions to the computer. If, for example, one were to give instruction to a teenager on how to drive, but handed him milk to fill up the tank instead of petrol and a carrot instead of a key to start the car, the poor lad wouldn't get anywhere. This is how many...
"trading with risk management alone, in my experience, Is not enough for long-term consistent enough success
Trading without risk management isn't enough either." This statement here is true, if you have no EDGE then all your going to do is bleed your account to death, no amount of mental strength or risk management can turn a negative expectancy strategy into a positive one. Now I have noticed some people have somehow developed their method and they themselves cant even clearly define their edge yet their sample size is large enough to determine that they do have an edge indeed. Now the reason why I make so many EA's is simply me having an idea, coding it up and testing it to see if it seems somewhat valid, 99% of what I code up DOES NOT work. It also helps that I enjoy trying to figure this all out
  • #2,542
  • Nov 17, 2023 3:09am Nov 17, 2023 3:09am
Quoting WallFlower
{quote} That last point you made is interesting. I found something similar, coding an ea to take a random entry with a 1:1 ratio usually gives around a 50% winrate, 1:2 33% winrate or even a 1:10 system a 10% winrate, is this what you mean? when I start to introduce my own filters and conditions I actually make the systems worse than a random entry somehow, I find it all very interesting, makes me think the visual representation of price is just to confuse and persuade you. If I recall correctly I believe wave doesn't use charts much right?...
These are my findings exactly (in bold above), I gave up on indicators in trading decades ago but wanted to introduce something to the EAs to stop buying tops/selling bottoms, so RSI seemed to do a basic job. Random entries always seemed to be more successful than fixed grids in my experience, I'll check, but for example, buying bigger bear candles and selling bulls on the 4hr (with no nearby trade) plays out pretty well in the long run, as long as you have the pockets and patience, pairs with +swap makes it easier as well in my experience.

I'm conscious this may be turning into an EA thread, sorry Rob
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,543
  • Nov 17, 2023 6:20am Nov 17, 2023 6:20am
Quoting LazyTrades
{quote} These are my findings exactly (in bold above), I gave up on indicators in trading decades ago but wanted to introduce something to the EAs to stop buying tops/selling bottoms, so RSI seemed to do a basic job. Random entries always seemed to be more successful than fixed grids in my experience, I'll check, but for example, buying bigger bear candles and selling bulls on the 4hr (with no nearby trade) plays out pretty well in the long run, as long as you have the pockets and patience, pairs with +swap makes it easier as well in my experience....
Im also careful for turning it into an EA thread, but I think we are using them to explore different concepts relating to what wave has shown us originally, Although if he wants me to stop I will of course This makes me recall an old trading video from a famous trader called Linda Raschke who was showcasing her fancy trading setup and her multiple monitors but then said at the end something along the lines of 'This all looks very complicated but the thing I'm watching 99% of the day is this little box right here' and she shows the quotes for the currency's, she even goes as far as to say her best trading days were using only the currency quotes. I would love to learn how she utilised it.
  • #2,544
  • Nov 17, 2023 6:44am Nov 17, 2023 6:44am
yeah, lets not turn this into a EA thread there are threads for that.... waveskie doesnt use charts let alone EAs .... he buys n sells the same price but he has a lot of experience trading this way

Go back to start of thread and read his posts its all there --- my 3cents only guys, Lets get em pips people
  • #2,545
  • Nov 17, 2023 10:51am Nov 17, 2023 10:51am
Quoting T721
yeah, lets not turn this into a EA thread there are threads for that.... waveskie doesnt use charts let alone EAs .... he buys n sells the same price but he has a lot of experience trading this way Go back to start of thread and read his posts its all there --- my 3cents only guys, Lets get em pips people
sup bro
  • #2,546
  • Nov 17, 2023 11:48am Nov 17, 2023 11:48am
Quoting dinpappa
{quote} sup bro
Hey pal, hope your trading is going well
  • #2,547
  • Nov 18, 2023 9:00am Nov 18, 2023 9:00am
Quoting T721
{quote} Hey pal, hope your trading is going well
I missed u brother.. remember me? <3
  • #2,548
  • Nov 21, 2023 3:56pm Nov 21, 2023 3:56pm
Holding long USD positions, have closed some profitable ones and made some profit on short EURGBP today. Will take what I’m given or wait it out, patience needed, so be it.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,549
  • Dec 16, 2023 12:31pm Dec 16, 2023 12:31pm
Busy times so not much trading for me, here's a screenshot of an EA's results, 7 pairs random optimised entries (averaging) on 5min charts, it's been running 24/7 for 7 weeks without any intervention, sadly not live with this one yet. Don't think the demo factors in swap but there's no bias to the pairs so that might have to be considered. 1500 trades :o)

For relevance the EAs just enter after a big bull or bear candle so simple random entries.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: bothways.png Size: 17 KB
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,550
  • Dec 20, 2023 4:20am Dec 20, 2023 4:20am
Hello Frends >>>>>>>>>> pleasae i need help in this code

i just want to close all sell and buy orders in the profit target >=10

this codes below close only sell orders or only buy orders if the profit target >=10 ...... i need to close all orders when the all orders be >= 10 in profit target

i changed the magice numbers to same numbers and not working the expert will open only buy or only sell order !!

please help

for(cnt=0;cnt<OrdersTotal();cnt++){
OrderSelect(cnt,SELECT_BY_POS,MODE_TRADES);
if(OrderSymbol()==Symbol() && OrderMagicNumber () == MagicBuy){
ticketbuy = OrderTicket();OrderSelect(ticketbuy,SELECT_BY_TICKET, MODE_TRADES);profitbuy = profitbuy+OrderProfit() ; // هذا ايخص
openpricebuy = OrderOpenPrice();
}
}

tpb = (OrdersTotalMagicBuy(MagicBuy)*AutomatedTPFactor*Point)+openpricebuy;
double bid = MarketInfo(Symbol(),MODE_BID);
if(UseAutomatedTP==true&&Profit_Target>=10){
if(Bid>=tpb) orderclosebuy(ticketbuy);
}
for(cnt=0;cnt<OrdersTotal();cnt++){
OrderSelect(cnt,SELECT_BY_POS,MODE_TRADES);
if(OrderSymbol() == Symbol() && OrderMagicNumber() == MagicSell){
ticketsell = OrderTicket();OrderSelect(ticketsell,SELECT_BY_TICKET, MODE_TRADES);profitsell = profitsell+OrderProfit();
openpricesell = OrderOpenPrice();
}
}
tps = openpricesell-(OrdersTotalMagicSell(MagicSell)*AutomatedTPFactor*Point);
double ask = MarketInfo(Symbol(),MODE_ASK);
if(UseAutomatedTP==trueProfit_Target>=10){
if(Ask<=tps)orderclosesell(ticketsell);
}
  • #2,551
  • Jan 15, 2024 1:52pm Jan 15, 2024 1:52pm
I'm working on some new areas at the moment but I keep a version of MT4 running 24/7 with my 7 pair random entry, no stoploss, hedge running, 10% profit in 11 weeks as follows:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 17 KB


May not be the most succesful trading method known to man but 10% for very little input is interesting, could all fall down at any time but over 2200 trades to date and still going.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,552
  • Jan 15, 2024 2:46pm Jan 15, 2024 2:46pm
Quoting LazyTrades
I'm working on some new areas at the moment but I keep a version of MT4 running 24/7 with my 7 pair random entry, no stoploss, hedge running, 10% profit in 11 weeks as follows: {image} May not be the most succesful trading method known to man but 10% for very little input is interesting, could all fall down at any time but over 2200 trades to date and still going.
Many thanks for the updates Lazy, Rome was not built in a day ...
  • #2,553
  • Jan 15, 2024 6:53pm Jan 15, 2024 6:53pm
Quoting LazyTrades
I'm working on some new areas at the moment but I keep a version of MT4 running 24/7 with my 7 pair random entry, no stoploss, hedge running, 10% profit in 11 weeks as follows: {image} May not be the most succesful trading method known to man but 10% for very little input is interesting, could all fall down at any time but over 2200 trades to date and still gg.
good patience makes great result
  • #2,554
  • Jan 26, 2024 2:15pm Jan 26, 2024 2:15pm
So another week comes to an end, and whilst I'm working on new strategies and concepts (I love a challenge), a bunch of simple (but optimised) EAs sit on a spare PC running, with no user input whatsover, nibbling away at the market. The use of EAs is not really relevant as they do nothing more than start averaging in, based on a big candle trigger. As I've accumulated weeks/months of data I've been able to identify the best pairs and have removed those which have not provided the best results so after 13 weeks, starting with £10k, net profit is £1139 = £87.62 per week (this is on demo, so there would be some swap considerations).

Hedging/averaging trades without prediction continues :o)
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,555
  • Jan 27, 2024 7:19am Jan 27, 2024 7:19am
Quoting LazyTrades
So another week comes to an end, and whilst I'm working on new strategies and concepts (I love a challenge), a bunch of simple (but optimised) EAs sit on a spare PC running, with no user input whatsover, nibbling away at the market. The use of EAs is not really relevant as they do nothing more than start averaging in, based on a big candle trigger. As I've accumulated weeks/months of data I've been able to identify the best pairs and have removed those which have not provided the best results so after 13 weeks, starting with £10k, net profit is...
Good work, thanks for keeping the thread alive, I to am experimenting live on an Opening GU a SELL on the hour and half hour and closing on the 5 min if in profit same for the BUY but on the every quarter past and quarter to, could also run EU to hedge with the GU so BUY on the hour and half hour etc....from 19th December to date, closed trades +1920 banked and open trades minus 280 = net +1760 over 25 trading days, average 70 pips a day with very little DD, this could be more as I work full time and not always near my phone but as it works on randomness doesn't matter if I miss opening and closing trades, however markets have been ranging so will like to see a big trend movement to see if it still works, will update results .......hedging and averaging just simple maths
  • #2,556
  • Jan 27, 2024 12:30pm Jan 27, 2024 12:30pm
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} Good work, thanks for keeping the thread alive, I to am experimenting live on an Opening GU a SELL on the hour and half hour and closing on the 5 min if in profit same for the BUY but on the every quarter past and quarter to, could also run EU to hedge with the GU so BUY on the hour and half hour etc....from 19th December to date, closed trades +1920 banked and open trades minus 280 = net +1760 over 25 trading days, average 70 pips a day with very little DD, this could be more as I work full time and not always near my phone but as it works...
Hello Rob, I'm going to have to test run your strategy above to get a feel for it before I comment, not played with timings before, you've given me another little project to work on. I think many on this thread are thinking outside the norms, accepting the randomness of the markets and looking for ways to exploit. I'm happy with my EAs after 13 weeks of demo testing as they are consistently profitable so far, they are extremely basic and just use a few pairs entering counter trend after a certain size candle on 5 min charts. If anyone wants the parameters I'll post them, the only thing I'll do going forward is run the MT4 optimisation tool for the previous few weeks, the logic being they will be reasonably relevant to the current market conditions.

Margin requirements are the only fly as my live account uses £30 of margin for every 0.01p position and you can have quite a few open at any one time, there's also the swap but some pairs pay positive one way so this is less of a concern. In my next post I'm going to outline something I'm working on, request for comment.

#Keepthethreadalive :]
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,557
  • Edited 1:05pm Jan 27, 2024 12:54pm | Edited 1:05pm
I've always had an issue with swap charges when holding DD positions when averaging, which led me to thinking if there was a way to make this work in your favour. In the past I've simply averaged in the direction of the positive swap, and to be honest this has actually proven ok, obviously though DD gets magnified as you are generally just long $ (for example); small position, big bank & patience does work, just in case you haven't read the rest of the thread.

One way I could buy and sell $ (and get swap on both), with my broker, is to buy USDJPY and sell USDMXN. Yes, I know I'm effictively trading JPYMXN but that doesn't pay the swap and isn't an option anyway. With those pairs there is generally a 40% correlation, which means they aren't too related and stumble around quite nicely. Not easy to backtest this so I started trading it live a few weeks ago, buying USDJPY at around 2:1 in relation to USDMXN (as I found this works quite well).

I enter both pairs at exactly the same time and my goal was to see if I could adjust entry sizes to create a reasonbly stable hedge and collect the swap. What surprised me was how often the trade went into positive territory, at which point I said thank you and closed the trades. Annoyingly the trades went positive overall more often than I expected and I struggled to keep them alive long enough to collect the swap, a nice problem to have, I have to admit.

My logic here is to create a swathe of trades covering a broad area, keeping them realtively stable (hedged), collect swap when in DD and close whenever a reasonable profit is made, no stopless obviously, there's other threads for that.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,558
  • Jan 27, 2024 2:00pm Jan 27, 2024 2:00pm
Hey Lazy, is there a way we could talk so i could learn a little more from how you hedge
  • #2,559
  • Edited 1:17pm Jan 28, 2024 12:47pm | Edited 1:17pm
Quoting NewTrades
Hey Lazy, is there a way we could talk so i could learn a little more from how you hedge
Hello Newtrades, by all means put any question you like on the thread, I don't profess to be any sort of guru but I am net positive and have been trading for a long time. I can certainly advise on some great ways to lose money as I've mastered that in the past, although I've never taken any really big hits in my time (define big), I'll happily share anything and it might help others. There are plenty of great posts on this thread from many who trade differently from the herd and I'd strongly suggest going back to the beginning and digesting, I'd advise not to skim and move on until you've practiced the concepts, and before dismissing anything, in all the useful posts/ideas, and I'm sure others will chip in if anything needs clarification.

The first thing that I'd say is not to believe anything until you have tried it yourself and it makes sense/money for you, including this post :o).
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,560
  • Jan 28, 2024 1:49pm Jan 28, 2024 1:49pm
Hello Rob, have I got this (example) right: 1pm open buy, 1.15pm open sell, 1.30pm open buy, 1.45pm open sell, rinse and repeat.
Take profit on 5min whenever buy or sell baskets are in profit then continue opening as above, so you are constantly opening buys and sells every 15mins letting any losing side run until in profit?
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
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