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The Swamp

  • #114,801
  • Jan 25, 2024 6:10am Jan 25, 2024 6:10am
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #114,802
  • Jan 25, 2024 6:10am Jan 25, 2024 6:10am
Quoting taragula
Well, now we have ti figure out when is the time to take profit. My favour is 1.0825, next 1.0755.
I have 0795 inbetween as S ..
  • #114,803
  • Jan 25, 2024 6:46am Jan 25, 2024 6:46am
Interesting. The USD doing the business but so far gold holding up. Even gaining a little.
  • #114,804
  • Jan 25, 2024 6:51am Jan 25, 2024 6:51am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I left some pending at 0830. It may pump before news.
tp the rest for 77.
Placed another pending sell 0830.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #114,805
  • Jan 25, 2024 7:45am Jan 25, 2024 7:45am
Quoting Ferna
could be a short building
im out
You have an IQ lower than 90 if you interact with this user.
  • #114,806
  • Jan 25, 2024 7:48am Jan 25, 2024 7:48am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} tp the rest for 77. Placed another pending sell 0830. {image}
I closed early
I also close GBP s
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #114,807
  • Jan 25, 2024 8:27am Jan 25, 2024 8:27am
Quoting taragula
Well, now we have ti figure out when is the time to take profit. My favour is 1.0825, next 1.0755.
Nice profit today....
I am back. Actually, I never left...
  • #114,808
  • Jan 25, 2024 9:07am Jan 25, 2024 9:07am
Whenever it bounces 0852 has some R value.
12h 200 at 0845
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #114,809
  • Jan 25, 2024 2:21pm Jan 25, 2024 2:21pm
Any of these levels, be it 0930 or the recent resistance at 0852, exhibited strength this week. There's a possibility that 0852 or any of the moving averages (MA's) on the chart could act as resistance. While waiting for 0874 wouldn't necessarily be incorrect, from an Average Daily Range (ADR) perspective, 0852 is in proximity.
Breaking the 200-day moving average at the bottom is on my radar. Considering 0874 - with ADR placing it near the 200-day around 080x - seems plausible. It's worth noting that different brokers may have slightly different chart levels, so treat these MAs as a general area.
The 200-day is still providing support, and price action (PA) could initiate a bounce, signaling the start of an uptrend. However, my inclination is that the 200-day may eventually break. With news scheduled for tomorrow, I am anticipating a bounce before then. A Friday close below 0852 might contribute to the 200 breaking.
I plan to generate a strategy for the month but will wait until closer to the month-end to make any decisions.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #114,810
  • Jan 25, 2024 2:39pm Jan 25, 2024 2:39pm
Considering a bearish scenario, if the news turns out to be negative (USD positive), we might identify an entry point on the chart. Despite the bearish sentiment, let's explore a hypothetical situation: the 200-day moving average support could initially push the price up to a resistance level. However, this upward movement might be temporary, and the price could subsequently decline.
To avoid being caught short with a fresh position and prevent giving back profits, I am cautious. While a day close below the 200-day moving average may indicate bearish momentum, the situation remains uncertain. Additional confirmation may be necessary, such as a day close below the 074x level. Even if the overall sentiment is bearish, there's a possibility that the 200-day moving average could act as resistance in the future. Once pa runs to 074x, and the attempt to break bounces.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #114,811
  • Edited 4:36pm Jan 25, 2024 4:26pm | Edited 4:36pm
Quoting gatorinla
Considering a bearish scenario, if the news turns out to be negative (USD positive), we might identify an entry point on the chart. Despite the bearish sentiment, let's explore a hypothetical situation: the 200-day moving average support could initially push the price up to a resistance level. However, this upward movement might be temporary, and the price could subsequently decline. To avoid being caught short with a fresh position and prevent giving back profits, I am cautious. While a day close below the 200-day moving average may indicate bearish...
If atm conditions remain unchanged, targeting 0874/77 might present a favorable resistance (R) for a short scalp in my humble opinion. The potential slippage is minimal. If my assessment is accurate, especially with the 200-day moving down in that region, setting small stops is advisable. There's a possibility of an upward surge beyond these 200s. Viewing 0877 as a surgical short, it's best to manage it prudently—keeping the position size small and limiting any northward momentum to just a few points.
I didnt long. That boat sailed
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #114,812
  • Jan 25, 2024 4:39pm Jan 25, 2024 4:39pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} If atm conditions remain unchanged, targeting 0874/77 might present a favorable resistance (R) for a short scalp in my humble opinion. The potential slippage is minimal. If my assessment is accurate, especially with the 200-day moving down in that region, setting small stops is advisable. There's a possibility of an upward surge beyond these 200s. Viewing 0877 as a surgical short, it's best to manage it prudently—keeping the position size small and limiting any northward momentum to just a few points. I didnt long. That boat sailed

In this scenario, neither you nor I perceive a bullish trend. While there might be a bounce around 0836/37, it's not considered a trade opportunity. My intention is to enter a short position at a suitable resistance (R).
It's important to note that the price is currently above the day 200, so accounting for a possible bounce in the trading plan is essential. In terms of resistance levels, 0852 on a daily basis, 0930 weekly, and 1041 monthly should be acknowledged. Given its proximity to the 200-day, there's a possibility of a breakout anytime soon.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #114,813
  • Jan 26, 2024 3:11am Jan 26, 2024 3:11am
It could fall from here, +...-... Little bit....tight stops...
I am back. Actually, I never left...
  • #114,814
  • Jan 26, 2024 3:22am Jan 26, 2024 3:22am
It slipped a little deeper changing some confluence to 0872. It has 0974 to resist. 0877 may be too much now.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #114,815
  • Jan 26, 2024 3:27am Jan 26, 2024 3:27am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} If atm conditions remain unchanged, targeting 0874/77 might present a favorable resistance (R) for a short scalp in my humble opinion. The potential slippage is minimal. If my assessment is accurate, especially with the 200-day moving down in that region, setting small stops is advisable. There's a possibility of an upward surge beyond these 200s. Viewing 0877 as a surgical short, it's best to manage it prudently—keeping the position size small and limiting any northward momentum to just a few points. I didnt long. That boat sailed
It's here now. Time will reveal. It's counter to that 200 day. I can't let it run away. Stops are a must near. This is surgery.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #114,816
  • Jan 26, 2024 4:02am Jan 26, 2024 4:02am
I'm uncertain if this marks the peak, as unforeseen developments could sway the market. Notably, the current trade goes against the 200-day trend. Buying near it has been successful, currently yielding over 60 pips. I'll return later; continuous monitoring is unnecessary at this time. Breaking the 200-day trend may be facilitated by a close today below 0852. Further confirmation would necessitate a day close below the 200 and 074x. These considerations arise from a cautious perspective given the year-end close below 1041. It 0874.x holds are not. It had/has potential. Its so close to 080x, 200 day. It could easily take more. If its to break the 200 and more. It may bounce a few times before. I will not watch.. Time for some napping.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #114,817
  • Jan 26, 2024 5:14am Jan 26, 2024 5:14am
If 0874x R dont hold. It can b/o North..Its pivotal here
News in 15 min.
ADR at 0878
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #114,818
  • Jan 26, 2024 5:18am Jan 26, 2024 5:18am
Quoting gatorinla
If 0874x R dont hold. It can b/o North..Its pivotal here News in 15 min. ADR at 0878 {image}
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #114,819
  • Jan 26, 2024 6:10am Jan 26, 2024 6:10am
PA is above 0852. 0874 did not hold to the pip. On the euro 25 35 pip most often does. That would be 0852 + 25/35. If it closes today below 0852. I look for a push closer to the 200 080x area next week. ADR at 0878. Yesterday did close below 0852. That usually a sign it would test the near support. It did make a LL. I already got stopped. That's it for me today. I got my one good eu trade this week at 0930. I actually closed this trade early. My original tp was 0815. I would of gotten it. When in the shadow of the 200 day. It can continue since many use it. PA is on the bullish side of 080x 200

Closing today below 0852 usually is a good sign for shorts. In this case the 200 is very close and trend opposite. If today closes above 0852. That may be bullish. In this case that may put pa testing 0930.

The month close will also have a vote.
Last month's R is 1041..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #114,820
  • Jan 26, 2024 6:20am Jan 26, 2024 6:20am
Quoting gatorinla
PA is above 0852. 0874 did not hold to the pip. On the euro 25 35 pip most often does. That would be 0852 + 25/35. If it closes today below 0852. I look for a push closer to the 200 080x area next week. ADR at 0878. Yesterday did close below 0852. That usually a sign it would test the near support. It did make a LL. I already got stopped. That's it for me today. I got my one good eu trade this week at 0930. I actually closed this trade early. My original tp was 0815. I would of gotten it. When in the shadow of the 200 day. It can continue since...
I hold a bearish outlook following the year-end close, suggesting a potential downtrend of 600 pips, often originating from 1036. While some historical moves were around 350 pips, it's crucial to note that past performance doesn't guarantee future outcomes. In these assessments, I didn't delve into the location of the 200-day trend.
My focus lies on the month's close. If it falls below 0852, this could transform 0852 into the new 0930. In this context, without factoring in the 200-day trend (assuming it requires a close below 080x and 0741), any spikes in price action might be restricted to approximately 50 pips above 0852.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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